Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 11/3/2026
Hello everybody. Lighter queue today so far, guess that means it's the offseason. We'll see if it picks or if we have a shorter one today.
How much has Zion Rose juiced his stock in Arizona?
For us? Enough to go from where we had him in the draft to somewhere on our T100.
which prospects have elicited the loudest uncontrolled reaction from you? shock, awe, dismay, hilarity?
I'm relatively even keeled but I did just start laughing when Yanquiel Fernandez hit a fly ball 47 feet over the foul pole, an ump called it foul, and then he hit one even further out to right center on the next pitch.
And also when Modesto broke an eighth inning, 0-0 deadlock when a wild pitch bounced off a catcher's shin guard and into the dugout and allowed the only run of the game to score.
And when Juan Guerrero started playing hackey sack with his glove in left field as his pitcher came set.
I'm an 880ish rating. Is that Rookie Ball?
That's probably 60th percentile or so on Chess.com? Sounds pretty good to me.
You mentioned somewhere (I think) that the Red Sox list was to be released earlier this offseason. Usually it’s a little later. Is this change due to feedback or something else? Either way, I’m looking forward to it
Nope, just picked it out of a hat. Metaphorically, at least.
Would you rather have a lineup of 9 Chandler Simpsons or 9 Yandys?
Would be fascinating to see the 9 Simpsons play the 9 Yandys. Think I'm team Yandy but what a mess of a game that would be.
Is Angel Genao just blocked all across the infield to the point the Guards try him in LF, or is the bat just not playable there?
I would view his situation as more of a temporary obstacle than something where you need to consider switching his position. Could be a trade chip, could be a Rocchio replacement, could be a second baseman and you move Bazzana.
Brewers LHP Wande Torres threw the 3rd most MiLB innings in their org this season. Do you think he profiles as a starter long term?
Not out of the question but he's not very loose/fluid and he's already walking a fair few hitters. 80/20, 90/10 relief outcome.
What's one scout friendly change to the CBA that you'd like to see happen? (I know they're not at the table, but a change where one of the consequences is more human intelligence.)
Pushing the draft back to June.
To the user who keeps asking whether Players from Country Y are motivated and those from Country Z lazy: I'm not publishing that for what I assume are obvious reasons.
Awesome stuff, struggled with command seems to be Jarlin Susana's AFL report on repeat… how does an organization forecast development with a prospect like that?
They'll be kicking around various paths forward. Coaches and dev staff will have ideas on what they want him to do physically and how likely it is that change X can facilitate outcome Y (better command in this case).
In Susana's particular case, that will likely involve a tailored plan for the winter (workout regimen, throwing program, etc.)
And then an assessment of where he's at come spring training
Would Bazzana’s bat play anywhere but 2B? Seems like a “good, not great” player if he makes it long term at 2B, but does he hit enough (or field enough) for anywhere else on the dirt?
If he's a ~110 wRC+ bat over the long haul, that could play in a corner. I'm not saying "move Bazzana," more "I don't think you'll see Genao move to LF, here are a few ways he could get in the lineup without doing that."
Not a prospect but from an evaluation standpoint which role do you think Grant Taylor is best suited for: starter, closer or Andy Ashby?
I think he can start, and given Chicago's rotation situation, it makes sense to give him a shot. The other two are nice fallback options.
If anything, what under the radar things are taking place in player development systems?
I think if you're here and subscribed to FG, you're probably pretty plugged in and aware of a lot of the things going on. Holistic athletic assessments, tailored and increasingly sophisticated strength and conditioning training, bat handle/barrel shape experimentation, pitch design labs…
You, understandably, wrote up Po-Chun Lin as a total wild card on the Mariners list last offseason. Any updated info on him now that he's pitched on the CPX?
Please check back next week, I don't have a great answer for you this very second and complex stuff requires a little more legwork than I can do with a chat going on.
What strengths can a farm director bring to a major league clubhouse?
People management. Farm directors have to get so many different types of people and personalities (coaches, players, trainers; new school and old school; native English speakers and people still learning; front office folks; etc.) motivated and swimming in the same direction. It's a different challenge than managing a team of major leaguers and handling the media and whatnot, but if you're good at people management, I can buy that that skill could translate to a managerial setting.
When do you expect list season to kick off? I check twelve times a day for the updated Braves list : )
Hopefully next week. But sounds like you could use a second sneak peak.
Luis Guanipa: Guanipa was a $2.5 million international signee out of Venezuela in the 2023 class. Despite the bonus, the 20-year-old is neither especially toolsy nor projectable, and the contours to his profile are similar to what they were a year ago. He makes a lot of contact (77% overall, 84% in zone last year) but it’s not especially authoritative. He tends to swing inside the ball and generates a lot of opposite field contact. Guanipa has average bat speed and is only able to consistently pull offspeed pitches that hang over the middle or inner part of the plate. His approach and swing decisions are generally solid but he started chasing more spin off the plate this past year and hardly walked at all after a late-season promotion to High-A.
Defensively, Guanipa’s tape is a mixed bag, with a blend of good reads off the bat and drifty routes that sometimes get him in trouble. He has the look of a guy who can play but not excel in center, and if anything he looks a half step slower than he did at last check in. There’s still enough hit skill and defensive versatility for him to grow into a fourth outfielder role, but some of the strongest parts of his game look a little dicier than they did in the low minors, and he’s correspondingly fallen a bit in this year’s update.
What are your “if the lockout lasts too long here’s what I can write about” article ideas?
Eric and I are not going to struggle for content.
In an ideal world where all lists are published and there's no MLB, we've still got the minors, foreign leagues, colleges, etc. to follow. And I'd love to do more PD/scouting articles like the one I had last month about pro scouting.
Not a prospect question, but I keep reading about how the Brewers are good at bat design. Can you explain that to us, and particularly, why other teams can't copy it? I always think objective analysis is a lot easier to agree on than the more subjective analysis that so much of scouting is built on.
I have no idea how good they are at it relative to anybody else but they're not alone in experimenting here. I can't find it but I thought I read something a couple years back about Julio trying various bat handles and actually not choosing the one that led to the very highest max EV because he didn't like the way it felt? Is that out there somewhere?
What do you think is the biggest jump or fall a player has ever taken in an evaluation cycle? Have you ever bumped a 35+ to a 55+ in one season? Or the reverse?
Better question for Eric, since he's been doing this forever… Plenty of really young guys will go from off the radar to the 40+ category in any given year. Breyner Figuereo with Texas just might end up in that territory.
Conversely, there are a few guys who got money in the DSL who start as 40/40+ types that just aren't good. Kendry Martinez, Cristopher Polanco, etc.
When it comes to the draft, are there prospects that you like who are likely to fail because of the team that drafted them? Can you name any situations in the past when you were upset for the player because of the team that drafted them?
Of course. We try to comment when we think a player goes to a particularly good spot for their talents or vice versa.
Too pithy to say "every time Colorado drafts a pitcher" but not by much.
I mean, the Brewers were very involved in the most famous "bat design" incident (?) in recent baseball history: last year's "torpedo bat" opening weekend controversy.
Came from the Yankees, but yes good example
Since you mentioned at the outset that the queue was a little lighter, can you take us behind the scenes of one of your chats? Are you cross referencing notes with stat pages with video, etc., or is it as simple as the questions come in, you pick one and type an answer and move on?
Sure. First though, you guys have picked up the pace in a big way, tons of stuff in there now. But it's pretty simple, I see all the questions that have been asked, I try to select mostly ones I can answer relatively quickly but I also have my spreadsheets open and will watch a little video if there's a guy I'm familiar with but need a refresh or a new look. The Wande Torres question, for example, I pulled some video of him and had that in the b/g for a few minute while I took other q's. If there's something interesting that I'm unprepared for, I'll ask folks to come back the next week and try to do a little research for them between now and then.
I've also heard some feedback that my answers can be terse; I don't mean them to be, I just wanna answer more rather than less.
Are there any pitchers you or Eric have discussed hundo'ing based alone off pitch shapes or traits without the requisite sample size or game performance
Discuss, maybe, but we generally want to see guys throw a little bit before we go nuts. Briggs McKenzie is a good example. We like him, I'd put a mid-rotation grade on him if I were scouting for a team… for the 100, let's see him hold his stuff over longer stretches first.
Are there any prospect types that are benefiting from the consolidation of the minor leagues?
The handful of guys that are boat racing through are perhaps getting to the big leagues faster than they would have in the old days of ten years ago.
Caminiti has seemed poised for a breakout for a couple years now, is he someone who gets a long runway to develop a viable offspeed? If the change doesn't come around, is there still enough stuff to 50 him?
CH looks better year over year. He's one we have to talk through but I think he makes it.
Any surprise 50s for the Red Sox list? How close are Godbout, Primera, Delzine?
Delzine may just sneak on there. Primera PTC I think, Godbout I'm a little down on relative to last May.
>Bud Smith 11:40 AM What do you think is the biggest jump or fall a player has ever taken in an evaluation cycle? Have you ever bumped a 35+ to a 55+ in one season? Or the reverse?
iirc Vance Honeycutt went from 2025 45 FV to 2026 HM
(checks board) and now he's back to 40 FV!
There are probably even more dramatic movers out there, too.
How do you see the white sox handling Smith/Schultz/McDougal next year? Rotation? Bullpen? AAA?
Just speculation, but Schultz gets every chance to start, Smith is the relief ace, McDougal less of a factor.
Sebastian Walcott offense showing up in AFL stat line. If he makes it to the majors in 2027, what defensive position(s) would you expect to see? And what is a reasonable guess for how much shortstop he plays in his career ahead: more or less than 450 innings of major league shortstop?
That's a fun over/under. I'll take the over, because that's not really all that many games. That said, if/when he makes it in 2027, I would guess it's in the outfield just b/c Seager is still around and productive.
Do you think there is any chance a version of the Rule 5 draft takes place at some point this offseason? If the likelihood is low will it materially impact team's 40-man roster decisions over the next two weeks?
Chance, sure, doesn't seem likely. Team behavior would change if they knew one way or the other.
How does the MiLB ball vs the MLB ball impact your evaluation of pitchers? Do all pitchers lose x% of their stuff, or does it only affect certain types of pitchers? On a related note, is Jacob Odle a Dude?
Good question. Does not seem to effect all pitchers evenly, seems to effect the overhand/carrying fastball guys more than others but need to do more work to tell if that's anecdotal or a trend.
Is Arias Gleyber Torres with better defense or is that just me?
That comp doesn't light me up.
But, if he posts a 113 wRC+ over his first nine years like Torres did, he's a star.
Any chance Bodine or Gillen debut in 2027?
Good chance, particularly for Bodine, who's already in Triple-A.
Will there be any fringy free agents that jump the gun and sign overseas just to avoid hits to development time?
Speculation, obviously, but I'd buy that the uncertainty could push guys on the fence to take the leap. Maybe a few more Dan Straily types available for KBO clubs this year.
What do you make of Bishop Letson after the way he finished his season?
Let's pull up the game logs here…. oh damn, that was pretty good: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=l…
I don't have any strong opinions off the cuff, it's the kind of thing that will have me looking for changes between September and July.
But also, guys do this. I bought BIG on Case Williams throwing harder and missing a ton of bats down the stretch in 2022. Next spring, the velo uptick was gone and he was Case Williams again.
Listening to you on There R Giants right now. How many other orgs are lucky enough to have someone covering their farm system so comprehensively?
Roger does a really good job, he's plugged in and is on top of all sorts of stuff. You and I hear a rustle in the wind, he hears that Samir Chires is throwing harder in a bullpen session.
I don't want to miss anyone, so forgive errors of omission, but obviously Sox Prospects do a great job with Boston. Scott Lucas covers Texas and is a friend I've run into countless times on the backfields. Matt Winkelman on the Phillies. There are others, again, forgive my scrambled brain right now.
MadFriars
How do you think about choice between having the multi-inning super reliever vs keep trying them at a starting (Aaron Ashby)? To phrase it differently, when do you just accept that you have a stud reliever who can cover multiple innings?
If every start seems to start well and then turn into a quagmire around the third or fourth, you've got a good candidate.
What franchises would you anticipate most aggressively gambling that the Rule V draft doesn't take place?
Franchises should not be gambling, it's against the rules.
(More rooting than gambling, I'd imagine. Teams with deep systems, a crowded 40, and a ton of guys eligible for the R5. TB/MIL/SF come to mind)
Looking at stuff, build, projection, delivery, athleticism, command, compete, holding velo, age x level, everything, am I crazy for thinking Zazueta is the best RHP prospect the Dodgers have had in like 20 years?
He's up there. The tricky part is that we have the benefit of hindsight on a few good ones that haven't worked out. Like, Bobby Miller was a very good prospect, River Ryan we're obviously high on still, etc.
re: Case Williams and velo jumps, Landon Knack hitting a hundo in spring training feels like a lifetime ago now
Maybe the prospect with the widest range of radar readings I've encountered from the first to second time I saw him
A good reminder that, while you can't/shouldn't ignore the gun, you shouldn't chase it either.
Re: Grant Taylor- James has written a few times that Brian Bannister has, when talking about Taylor, brought up how his extreme extension is similar to Glasnow, and seemed to imply that it may lead to similar injury concerns with a starter's workload (especially on shoulder/lat which he's already had trouble with). Is this a concern you share, both for Taylor specifically and more generally as a potential issue for high-extension pitchers?
Bannister on Taylor: Guys that pitch at max extension are kind of in that danger zone…
"There's just an added level of stress involved versus somebody who pitches more in the range of their physical height. If they have six-five extension and they're six-five, I think everything is operating in more of a middle, neutral range of the bell curve. It's just an observation and I do a ton of studies on my own, because a lot of this you have to operate in theory because there's not huge sample sizes. Like [Tyler] Glasnow [who has similarly high extension], when you look at the track record of innings pitched — and I have a lot of respect for him and his talent — there's a lot of seasons where he threw like, 60 innings. There's just not an extended track record of throwing 100-200 innings."
Great question, I have no answer, but something interesting to think about. Might ask around this winter and see if there's an article there somewhere…
Think I'm going to shut it down here. Thanks for coming as always and we'll do it again next week. In the meantime, be well.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.