Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 6/30/26

June 30, 2026

2:00	Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

2:00	Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t have any housekeeping, we finished the lists

2:01	Brendan Gawlowski: I’m still on an extended runner’s high about that

2:01	Brendan Gawlowski: So, let’s jump in

2:01	ptkirk: Where would high-school draftee age Josuar Gonzalez go if he was eligible in this years draft

2:02

Brendan Gawlowski: Toward the very top. Maybe someone prefers one of the college guys, maybe they don’t. Could easily go 1:1

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2:03	Philip Christy: Is Franklin Arias now a legit option to be the starting shortstop for the 2027 Red Sox, or is he still another year off?

2:03	Brendan Gawlowski: I’d be surprised if he’s not

2:04	Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe not on Opening Day, but I think the odds are better than 50:50 that he’s the guy there a year from now.

2:05	Graham Lewis: Bo Davidson had a great month but it seems that a lot of his power comes opposite-field. When does that become a concern?

2:05	Brendan Gawlowski: Multiple Bo Davidson questions…

2:06	Brendan Gawlowski: With power, there’s a sliding scale on how necessary it is to lift your fly balls to the pull side. When you have plus or better power, as Davidson does, it’s less important than if you’re Isaac Paredes.

2:08	philly: Juneiker Caceras is hitting for more impact than his scouting reports suggest. What would it take to reconsider his offensive ceiling?

2:08	Brendan Gawlowski: His raw power numbers are actually slightly lower this year than last.

2:09	Brendan Gawlowski: 111 max, 104.5 90th last season; 110 max, 103.5 90th this year

2:09	Brendan Gawlowski: He’s killing it, and his FV will rise on the next eval cycle

2:10	Brendan Gawlowski: But we had the plus hit tool on him

2:10	Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know that the tool grades will change much/at all

2:10	Brendan Gawlowski: He’ll be part of the conversation as we prep to release an updated T100

2:11	phillyg: How much of Bryce Rainer’s contract struggles can be attributed to recovering from injury? His K rate is up something like 12% vs last year and not like it was low before

2:11	Brendan Gawlowski: Can’t put an exact percentage on it, but seems like a lot?

2:11	Brendan Gawlowski: He just had a monster June

2:12	CherryTomato: Has Hayden Alvarez shown enough to crack the top hundred? He was PTC for you guys preseason and has performed very well.

2:12	Brendan Gawlowski: Another one who will be part of the conversation.

2:13	crossedup: Due to a shallow system most Mariners prospect conversations are around their top 8 or so guys, anyone below that standing out this year?

2:13	Brendan Gawlowski: Some relievers have thrown well but the impact guys are who you’d think they are

2:14	Brendan Gawlowski: Becker/Yorger are interesting fliers but a clear tier or two below the big guys rn

2:15	Phillip Denny: Dodgers are apparently open to moving any of their OF prospects other than De Paula for a top tier middle IF or C. Sooooo….Ryan and one of Quintero/Sirota/Hope for Made…who says no?

2:15	Brendan Gawlowski: Both

2:15	CC AFC: Can you explain the difference between gap to gap and pole to pole on The Board? Is it just a degree of power?

2:15	Brendan Gawlowski: Pole to pole: home run power to all fields

2:15	Brendan Gawlowski: Gap to gap: line drive hitter who can use the field

2:16	cfhennessy: So I see how Kade Anderson is blocked from the mariners rather deep rotation, but is there a reason they won’t bring him up to AAA? AA hitters just seem like they don’t lose a challenge to him

2:17

Brendan Gawlowski: I can brainstorm a couple of reasons — nice place to pitch and thus work on stuff, it keeps his routine consistent, it helps the numbers stay as fluffed as possible and who knows, maybe increases the chances someone wants to make them an offer they can’t refuse — but I’ve been surprised too, figured he’d have been up by now.

2:17	Jackelder: What more must Kade Anderson do to make the Show?

2:17	Brendan Gawlowski: Pitch for an org with a hole in the rotation

2:18

townshipjive: I’m curious about Minor League BABIP numbers. I’m assuming they can run high, especially at lower levels, due to less than MLB quality defense, is that right? Specifically, how does someone like Mike Sirota run a .400+ BABIP for 600 PA across multiple levels/seasons? Is he just hitting the ball that hard (coupled with speed,) is it just noise across a smaller sample size, or mostly just the lesser defense?

2:18	Brendan Gawlowski: They do run high at the lower levels

2:18	Brendan Gawlowski: Low quality defense, sun baked fields, bad pitching leads to more hard contact, less rigorous scorekeeping, etc.

2:19	Smiling Politely: This is perhaps unanswerable, but has there been any conclusive work done on players with long/productive/consistent careers (Freeman, Ramirez) to try and determine if they had specific characteristics as prospects that could be identified earlier? Maybe it’s too many factors…

2:20	Brendan Gawlowski: I think you try to learn a little bit from everyone, good or bad. But human beings are complicated, you can’t perfectly backfit from someone else’s trajectory

2:22	higginsford: Demetrio Crisantes cycle alert! Do you think his power outburst is real or a product of ball and home park?

2:22	Brendan Gawlowski: The latter

2:22	Brendan Gawlowski: I like him, on talent he’s a clear T100 guy.

2:22	Brendan Gawlowski: He can really hit

2:22	Brendan Gawlowski: No statistical sign that he’s got more juice than when he was last evaluated

2:23	Beer:30: How correctable are lower level contact issues? Who have you seen alter his approach enough to overcome early career concerns and unexpectedly become a good hitter beyond the hyped power?

2:23	Brendan Gawlowski: It happens. Cam Cauley’s on my mind b/c he debuted yesterday. His early minors numbers were dire.

2:24	rossredcay: Super small sample, but Patrick Forbes seems to be like not walking anyone so far? Given that command was probably the big issue coming into the year, this is a positive sign, yes?

2:24	Brendan Gawlowski: I’d need to take a look, he’s thrown, what 15 innings?

2:24	Brendan Gawlowski: Ask again next week, I’ll watch some video and ask around

2:26	rossredcay: Any dope on Jesus Castro (pop-up arm in SD system)? Wasn’t on my radar at all, but doing quite well in low A at 19 after jumping straight from DSL.

2:27	Brendan Gawlowski: Sitting 91-93, mostly pounding the sinker.

2:27	Brendan Gawlowski: Might make the main section of the SDP list next cycle, he’s having a good year, but it’s still a pitchability over stuff profile.

2:28	Beer:30: Is Contact Rate purely putting bat to ball or quality bat to ball?

2:28	Brendan Gawlowski: The former; hard hit rate is 95+

2:29	Maurice Lepouttre: Any pitchers in Detroit’s system making noticeable progress this season?

2:30	Brendan Gawlowski: Encouraged by Witherspoon’s year, ready to see what it looks like against more appropriate competition.

2:30	JoshCleveland: Now the unreasonable fans of Fangraphs want to know, when can we expect the UPDATED prospects lists

2:30	Brendan Gawlowski: Targeting HR derby day

2:30	fincampbell05: Which up-arrow Red Sox will be part of the top 100 conversation? Valera still there? Any consideration for Gonzales, Azocar, Godbout, Rivas…. Delzine?

2:31	Brendan Gawlowski: Valera will still be there. Gonzales, Azocar, and Delzine will come up for sure, gut feeling is that none will be added

2:31	Phil: Are we underrating Breslow’s overhaul of pitching development just because he’s kinda bad at the rest of his job? Really impressed by Tolle, Early, and Bennett so far.

2:31	Brendan Gawlowski: I think the pitching pipeline is humming spectacularly

2:31	Brendan Gawlowski: Soup to nuts

2:32	rossredcay: Any notable offensive upside in Luke Stevenson’s bat? Or is this more of a low-ceiling, high-probability starting catcher?

2:32	Brendan Gawlowski: If anything, I’ve cooled on him slightly over the course of the year.

2:33	Brendan Gawlowski: I still like him, but in April he looked like a potential quick mover, and the lack of game power in such a favorable environment is a little concerning.

2:33	andecobi: You said last week Farmelo had a long swing, are long swings purely because of long arms? Can a long armed player ever have a short swing? How do you shorten up a swing?

2:34	Brendan Gawlowski: Lots of good questions in here

2:34	Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s talk about Farmelo first

2:35	Brendan Gawlowski: (Synergy picked a very bad time to crash, stand by)

2:37	Brendan Gawlowski: In Farmelo’s case, the head of the bat travels a long distance. It’s a steep swing with a relatively high and deep load.

2:37	Brendan Gawlowski: He has a fast bat, so he might get away with it, and we’re projecting him to do so but the length of the path is a risk here.

2:38	Brendan Gawlowski: Speaking more broadly, short arms help with length for obvious reasons

2:38	Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a reason why you see so few six-foot-seven hitters

2:38	Brendan Gawlowski: And why the big guys you do so are freaky athletes

2:39	Brendan Gawlowski: Thinking more about swing length: There’s a tradeoff when it comes to balancing power and contact. Shortening a swing can help you generate more of the latter but, all else being equal, likely at the expense of the former.

2:40	Brendan Gawlowski: So if you ever wonder why a guy doesn’t just shorten up… that’s part of it. Comfort is another factor, it’s hard to change a swing, even a slight mechanical tweak can feel really awkward

2:41	Josh Jowdy: Eli Willits has had a great first month in A+ in a tough park for hitters. If he keeps it up, could the Nats move him up to AA before the season ends? Would that be in character for the ex-BOS front office?

2:41	Brendan Gawlowski: I think that’s in play, yes

2:41	Beer:30: Back to Kade Anderson, he’s graded 30/45 Command but has just 10 walks and 2 homeruns in 66.2 innings at AA. Is this a grade that will be adjusted or something behind the rating that is lost in the statline?

2:41	Brendan Gawlowski: Good example of something that needs a fresh look.

2:42	Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe the conclusion changes, maybe it doesn’t but need to dive in on that

2:42	evangamer: Braylon doughtys having another awesome year, but does the lack of size hold him back from being a clear T100 guy?

2:42	Brendan Gawlowski: I think he’s going to make the updated list.

2:42	K’d Cavalli: Is Elijah Green with a 50 hit tool a top 5 prospect?

2:42	Brendan Gawlowski: Yes

2:43	clydethedog: With the Dodgers recent intel, it’s obvious they like De Paula more than the OF prospect logjam. What high end prospect should they be trying to trade for?

2:44	Brendan Gawlowski: They’re not in the market for high end prospects, they’ll want big leaguers who can help them win a World Series right now

2:45	sliderinthedirt: Dalton Rushing has quietly been terrible after his hot start, 7 HR in 28 and then 2 in 142. Is he still a 60? Getting a lot of Jackson Holliday vibes from him, the way the walks just disappeared one they hit the majors… I suppose it’s a

2:45	Brendan Gawlowski: He’s a catcher with a 125 wRC+ in 50 games. That’ll play.

2:45	Brendan Gawlowski: Some of the… non statistical stuff has my antenna raised

2:46	Brendan Gawlowski: On the broader point about walks, yeah, you can’t just look at a minor league walk rate and assume it will hold

2:47	perfecto111: Do you think that Colt Emerson can lower down the strikeouts with more experience against MLB pitchers?

2:47	Brendan Gawlowski: Yes

2:47	Uncle Spike: How good could the Pirates be? Konner Griffin is back. Lowe, Reynolds and O’Hearn have been having great years and now Esmerlyn and Endy are killing the ball.

2:47	Brendan Gawlowski: They can win 85-88 games

2:48	MF Luder: At Tennessee (in college) I viewed AJ Russell as a nearly thing to be a mid-rotation starter in the majors. What am I missing?

2:48	Brendan Gawlowski: That he hasn’t finished the fifth inning even once since high school?

2:49	P: Any idea when you’ll circle back to the Braves system and take a deeper look again?

2:49	Brendan Gawlowski: Doing so as we speak

2:49	Brendan Gawlowski: well, not literally I guess, but it’s one of a few projects I’m working on right now

2:49	P: Eric has said to keep an eye on Conor Essenberg in the Braves system. He’s slashing a respectable .258/.389/.440 but with a 37% K-rate. Does he have an extreme TTO profile, or do you see something different when you look under the hood?

2:50	Brendan Gawlowski: Very young, cold weather background, I’m very intrigued

2:50

Phillip Denny: Respectfully Brendan, Katie Woo’s report today says the opposite. “However, the primary focus for the back-to-back champions isn’t on the major-league roster, according to multiple sources familiar with the club’s thinking who were granted anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. The Dodgers want to improve the depth of their minor-league system and are prepared to part with at least one of their top outfield prospects not named Josue De Paula to do so.”

2:51	Brendan Gawlowski: well I stand corrected.

2:51	Brendan Gawlowski: Surprising!

2:51	Brendan Gawlowski: The plan is to part with good non premier prospects to bolster depth?

2:52	K’d Cavalli: Somewhat rhetorical, but how does anyone ever accurately scout a prospect, pitcher or hitter, in the PCL lol

2:52	Brendan Gawlowski: There are contextual challenges everywhere, altitude is just a different one.

2:53	K’d Cavalli: How long before we have publicly available Statcast data as a standard through the entire non-rookie, non-complex minor leagues?

2:53	Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll guess in the next 5-10 years

2:54	Brendan Gawlowski: It’s available for certain games already

2:54	lou-harrison-bader: Who was the last minor leaguer to mash at every opportunity like Sirota and then not be able to make it in the show?

2:54	Brendan Gawlowski: Tons of quad a bats laying around

2:54	Brendan Gawlowski: your Blaine Crims and whatnot

2:55	Uncle Spike: When you are scouting a prospect, do you go through a whole checklist of things you are looking for or have you just been doing it so long that you just free ball it?

2:55	Brendan Gawlowski: For the Pirates, I had a bunch of stuff I had to fill out for every player, so that was a readymade template

2:56	Brendan Gawlowski: But I try to let the game breathe and take things as they come

2:56	P: How do you think the Braves will approach their early picks in the draft, and would you do it any differently?

2:56	Brendan Gawlowski: Best player available

2:58	millvillemeltdown: how do prospect people, like all folks who spend time away from family and on the road, make it work?

2:59	Brendan Gawlowski: It’s really challenging. There are a lot of compromises on seeing friends/spending time with family. The job is very hard on spouses and kids.

2:59	Brendan Gawlowski: More free time in the winter compensates somewhat

2:59	Brendan Gawlowski: But my wife and I liked to say it was a job of high highs and low lows

2:59	lou-harrison-bader: Maybe I am looking to far into it or too granularly re: sirota but isn’t Blaine Crims best offensive season in the minors worse than any of sorotas stints?

3:01	Brendan Gawlowski: If the question behind the question is ‘is there a level of production so high that a guy is basically guaranteed to be good if he does X?’ I would say maybe but I haven’t seen it and Sirota has not cleared that threshold

3:01	Brendan Gawlowski: And I like Sirota plenty

3:02	PC1970: Any thoughts on John Peck & Brett Callahan in Detroit’s system? Callahan feels like he could be a 4th OF? Peck hit enough to be a starting SS or more of a utility guy?

3:02	Brendan Gawlowski: Still have Peck as a utility guy; Callahan I should’ve put on the list apparently

3:03	Brendan Gawlowski: Incidentally, Callahan has one of the weirdest statistical anomalies I’ve seen: he chases less with two strikes than he does in other situations. Huh.

3:04	Mike Torbitt: No Raymer Medina mention at all in the Rays list?

3:04	Brendan Gawlowski: I double checked and yes that is correct

3:04	Josh Jowdy: Any draft content coming this week? Or will it all be in the one week before draft day?

3:05	Brendan Gawlowski: Eric is working furiously on that right now, sounds like there’s an outside chance of a Friday update but more likely early next week

3:05	dbailit: What would your strategy be pitching wise in international markets if you were an intl scouting director?

3:06	Brendan Gawlowski: I’d pay a lot of attention to the older arms with interesting traits in the low-dollar bucket

3:07	Brendan Gawlowski: Not opposed to spending big here and there

3:07

Niels-Henning Orsted Joc Pederson: Greetings, BG. Joshua Baez since mid-May is slashing .311/.365/.742 while fanning “just” 25% of the time (148 PA’s). Of course, this year he whiffed nearly 34%(!) prior to that — so is the improved contact likely *mostly* real, since it’s accompanied by an 1.100 OPS? Thanks.

3:07	Brendan Gawlowski: Another one we’ll be discussing

3:08	YeonWoo Oh: Could you inform Rainiel Rodriguez’s EV numbers? His recent performances, which seem to show that he has adapted well to the AA, have been very impressive.

3:08	Brendan Gawlowski: 105.5 90th, 111 max, 40% hard hit

3:09	Brendan Gawlowski: In line with the 55/60 raw grades on him from the past cycle

3:11	rossredcay: Reading Coy James’ report, the tools sounds pretty fun with the notable exception of the hit tool. It sounds like it’s a pitch recognition issue, is that right? Or is there something mechanically with the swing that you all didn’t like?

3:12	Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe a better question for Eric, he handled Nats. That said, I just put on some video and, in just the handful of sliders I’ve seen him face in what I’m watching (this is not an exhaustive look by any stretch) he seems to see it fine

3:12	Brendan Gawlowski: Homered off one last Friday

3:12	Brendan Gawlowski: Now I’m curious to see monthly splits on spin

3:12	Brendan Gawlowski: Interesting…

3:13	msomers13: Nolan Perry still tracking towards the top 100? Or has his last couple starts put a damper on the excitement

3:13	Brendan Gawlowski: Another one for the conversation

3:13	Phil: Jay Jaffe just published a nice piece aggregating info about team defense into a (caveated) ranking. What do you think would be the result if you ranked organizational defense across all levels? Dodgers/Cubs still at the top?

3:13	Brendan Gawlowski: I have no idea but that sounds like the most ambitious content assignment imaginable and I am going to memory hole this question now

3:14	P: You said a few weeks ago that there was no one in the Braves system who you wouldn’t include in a Skubal deal. Is that still looking like the case?

3:14	Brendan Gawlowski: Getting more attached to Hartman by the day…

3:14	viceroy: favorite post hype prospect(s)?

3:15	Brendan Gawlowski: Does Sean Burke count? I liked him back in A-ball, thrilled he’s having success

3:15	Curtis Yasutake: is the Felnin Celesten breakout real? Destroying high an and hitting for power. Where will he be in next top 100?

3:15	Brendan Gawlowski: One of the toughest evals I’ve run across

3:15	Brendan Gawlowski: He’ll go up, more by default than anything else

3:16	Brendan Gawlowski: Still have a lot of questions about his hands, ability to get to high fastballs, and his overall motor

3:16	Brendan Gawlowski: Remarkable how consistently scouts say stuff like ‘he’s pretty talented but I hate watching him play’

3:17	ankoalec: Blake Burke is nearly at a 20/20 season so far in AA for Milwaukee on a realistic BABIP. Does he seem like a 1B option for the Brewers in the near future, or am I getting Tyler Black’d again? Is this just the expectation for every Brewers minor leaguer?

3:18	Brendan Gawlowski: I’m intrigued. Huge juice, scary but tolerable contact data

3:18	mrfister: Is this what Kyle Tucker is? A replacement level outfielder who can accumulate runs and rbis?

3:18	Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll take the over

3:20	Bob Loblaw: Favorite scouting lingo you’ve heard?

3:20	Brendan Gawlowski: So many. I’m partial to the LOFT problem but recently heard about the abominable snowman breaking ball

3:22	P: Can you give us a sneak peek of what you’ve seen from Lodise and Southisene this year? You mentioned a few weeks ago that Lodise’s power production was disappointing, but it seems like he’s had a little more pop in June. Southisene has hardly played SS this year – does he still fit there?

3:22	Brendan Gawlowski: I watched Rome a little bit on video last week and Southisene looked good at SS

3:23	Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve mentioned it many times here, but he’s found a way to get on time, which was the huge question on him entering the year

3:23	Brendan Gawlowski: Lodise is one of a bunch of Florida State draftees last year who saw their measurable power crater in pro ball

3:24	Brendan Gawlowski: EV90 is down five and a half ticks. That’s… a lot, even accounting for going from metal to wood.

3:25	willt: What makes Arizona such a landmark location for minor league baseball given it is very hot most baseball months?

3:25	Brendan Gawlowski: 15 teams have their complexes there

3:25	Brendan Gawlowski: makes travel very easy

3:25	Brendan Gawlowski: the games themselves are not an entertainment product

3:28	Beer:30: Will any of the Brewers young SP arms land on the T100 that aren’t there already? Letson, Bishop, Hardin or Knoth? Other?

3:29	Brendan Gawlowski: Hardin will get a long look… if Eric or James want to bang the table for the other two, I’m open to it but I think I’d want to see more strikes and length respectively

3:29	viceroy: How much patience do you have for players like Tyson Lewis with extremely loud tools and bad approach/contact? Once they’re 2 years too old for a level?

3:30	Brendan Gawlowski: depends on the player. How bad is the approach and contact? How loud are the tools? how much experience in high level baseball does he have? Do we have a realistic path forward or not?

3:31	Brendan Gawlowski: In Lewis’s case, it’s not looking great but it’s not like the reds are going to cut him imminently or take away his playing time.

3:32	MF Luder: All the attention has shifted to Anthony Eyanson. Do you have opinions on Kyson Witherspoon’s season thus far?

3:32	Brendan Gawlowski: Fastball has been really hittable

3:33	Brendan Gawlowski: Command has backed up

3:33	Brendan Gawlowski: Were I scouting for a team, I’d still have something like a 50 on him, but for our scale it was appropriate to keep him in the 45/45+ area

3:35	mills9lane: Is Henry Lalane a name to watch again or need to see a full season?

3:35	Brendan Gawlowski: The former, velo up a tick, huge innings increase, breaking ball missing a ton of bats.

3:36	Brendan Gawlowski: The injuries still scare me but he’s doing exactly what the Yankees would’ve wanted to see from him this year

3:36	cosmichero: Has any player moved through the minors faster than Soto did? Why was he promoted so aggressively? I assume there’s more to it than “he was really good”

3:37	Brendan Gawlowski: Actually, that’s exactly why I assume he was promoted so aggressively

3:37	voltaverve: Thoughts on Michael Arroyo? He’s had a bit of an odd season so far. Do you think the bat is gonna be good enough, since he doesn’t seem great defensively?

3:37	Brendan Gawlowski: Holding pattern

3:37	Brendan Gawlowski: I suspect he’s a player we’ll learn a lot about fairly quickly once he arrives

3:38	Brendan Gawlowski: He’ll either be able to make enough hard contact with his swing to have something resembling Jonathan Schoop’s career or he won’t

3:38	Brendan Gawlowski: QUICK PSA

3:38	Brendan Gawlowski: There are a lot of questions in the queue asking about MLB Pipeline’s new prospect lists

3:39	Brendan Gawlowski: You should ask them!

3:39	P: Do you have any theories on what’s going on with recent Florida State draftees? I’m not a rabid college baseball fan, and I hate to even mention it, but one thing I heard about for the first time this year was doctoring metal baseball bats.

3:40	Brendan Gawlowski: I do not but I’d want to dot my i’s and cross my t’s there before taking one of their bats this season

3:41	Forrest: What’s surprised you about Colt Emerson’s struggles thus far?

3:41	Brendan Gawlowski: I’m surprised he’s so starkly traded the contact for power

3:42	Brendan Gawlowski: He’s also 20, so an acclimation period isn’t super surprising

3:42	beanbong: do orgs have their own version of top 100 prospect lists? I remember you mentioning that Pitt had upwards of 200 guys with an everyday grade, is there a way to differentiate between no. 200 and no. 75?

3:42	Brendan Gawlowski: They have a bunch of lists but there’s no SEO incentive to put a round number on any of them

3:44	lou-harrison-bader: re re: Sirota that was my thought as well. For what it’s worth (unless I am searching wrong) it looks like there are 4 hitters to put up a wrc+ north of 180 across 2 seasons above rookie ball level since 2016 and they are Juan Soto, Vlad jr. , Kevin Mcgonigle and Mike Sirota.

3:44	Brendan Gawlowski: I like Sirota

3:44	Brendan Gawlowski: I suspect he’s going to be very high on our next update

3:44	Brendan Gawlowski: At the same time

3:45	Brendan Gawlowski: He is running a 22% walk rate

3:45	Brendan Gawlowski: He is not going to do that

3:45	Brendan Gawlowski: at the big league level

3:45	Brendan Gawlowski: Juan Soto’s is 15%

3:45	Brendan Gawlowski: Aaron Judge’s is 16%

3:46	Brendan Gawlowski: The walks are floating his topline production in a way that is not going to translate directly

3:47	LenFuego: Manuel Pena has a .314 average, 26 HRs and 5 SBs at Reno this season so far, but last got a mention in the D-Backs prospect list in 2023 (and that was in the “other prospects” area). Did you guys miss something or is this just a fluke?

3:47	Brendan Gawlowski: He’s on the long list of guys to write about

3:48	Brendan Gawlowski: To clarify though, he did all that at Amarillo

3:48	Brendan Gawlowski: At Reno he’s still homerless in 44 PA’s

3:50	Graham Lewis: What’s up with Eldridge’s K rate in the majors?

3:50	Brendan Gawlowski: Way down; very exciting

3:51	tjryan607: Is Genoa kind of a now-typical CLE middle infield prospect losing luster as he advances with below average power and speed?

3:51	Brendan Gawlowski: No

3:52	wiguy94: Brewers promoted Josiah Ragsdale to AA after putting up a 151 wRC+ in A+. He wasn’t on the Brewers list to start the year. Is there anything there?

3:53	Brendan Gawlowski: Please check back in next week, I’ll take a longer look

3:54	canderson20: Do you have an easy way to discern between a prospect being patient or being passive? If they’re swing % is below 40 I typically rule them out as being too passive to translate but I’m afraid I might end up whiffing on guys if I just use that benchmark alone.

3:55	Brendan Gawlowski: Easy way, no, I think the chase vs. chase with two strikes is the closest thing statistically but I’d also want to watch a bunch of at bats

3:55	Brendan Gawlowski: mid-high 30’s raises an eyebrow for me but it’s not enough by itself to say ‘passive’ in all cases

3:56	lou-harrison-bader: thanks for answering, you don’t need to post this but I wish i could thumbs up your replies. I appreciate the responses.

3:56	Brendan Gawlowski: You’re welcome; there’s always a bunch of these in the queue too, and I notice and appreciate the kind words

3:57

Phillip Denny: JJ Wetherholt falling to 7 in the 2024 draft still irks me, but in hindsight I’m not sure where the obvious higher pick would have been for him. Maybe Rockies at 3? But at the time Condon seemed like a consensus top 3 pick, and if the Rockies had a do-over they might just go with Kurtz instead.

3:57	Brendan Gawlowski: Just a really good draft

3:58	K’d Cavalli: How do you adjust developmental timelines for cold weather prep prospects? Thinking Luke Dickerson, Dax Whitney, Essenburg?

4:00	Brendan Gawlowski: Case by case, boring answer. As a scout I’d be inclined to stay on my hit tool projection longer for a player in that demo, even if they struggle for a while, compared to a guy who went to IMG and an SEC school, for instance

4:00	Phillip Denny: The Josh Naylor-Stone Garrett incident is getting re-litigated in the news given the Austin Hedges thing this week. Where does “stabbed a teammate in a prank gone wrong” fall in the continuum of character concerns?

4:00	Brendan Gawlowski: I had forgotten all about that

4:02	LenFuego: How do you put a future value on command/control? For all the other scouting measures, I get how you might project in the future based on bat speed and other measurables, but for control it seems almost impossible to project into the future.

4:03	Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a hard one. Project big on athletes with clean deliveries, loose/short arm swings

4:03	Brendan Gawlowski: It doesn’t always pan out, but that’s about all you can do

4:03	Brendan Gawlowski: Okay folks, gonna shut it down here today

4:03	Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks as always for the questions, we’ll do it again next week.

The Best Team Defenses of 2026 (So Far)

Effectively Wild Episode 2498: MLB’s Bully Pulpit

Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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TheBabboMember since 2019

20 days ago

Re 2:16, Mariners historically have not exposed top pitching prospects to the PCL run environment. Gilbert and Kirby each made one AAA start before being called up, Woo and Miller came straight from AA.

kingharbaughMember since 2021

19 days ago

Reply to TheBabbo

Kirby actually skipped AAA before his call up. His start at AAA in 2022 was in July and something they did to manage his innings. Woo, Miller, and Kirby all skipped AAA.

sadtromboneMember since 2020

20 days ago

The Dodgers want to improve the depth of their minor-league system and are prepared to part with at least one of their top outfield prospects not named Josue De Paula to do so.

My understanding is that De Paula is the one guy they aren’t interested in trading, so that lines up with what I know. But my reaction was the same as Brendan’s.

The plan is to part with good non premier prospects to bolster depth?

Something is being lost somewhere in between the sources’ statement to Woo, or to Woo and me reading this quote. They are planning to trade from their minor league depth…to improve their minor league depth? And normally a team that would be interested in Tibbs, Hope, Quintero, or Sirota would only be interested in trading away major leaguers without a ton of team control.

This whole thing strikes me as weird, and like the Dodgers are thinking that the rest of the industry is higher on their outfielders than they are. If they roll up to the Braves and say “We will give you James Tibbs for John Gil and Luke Sinnard” the Braves should say “thanks for your interest,” hang up, and make a note to not trade John Gil or Luke Sinnard at all. And to not trade for James Tibbs.

dodgerbleu

19 days ago

Reply to sadtrombone

I don’t think it’s weird, I think they have to.

For starters, they had intended to get Rushing exposure in the OF last year and pulled the plug this year not bc he couldn’t handle it, but roster construction. So they’re sittiing on Rushing in circumstances that make him less valuable to them than any other team in baseball.

That’s bc of Tucker/Pages/Teoscar, all signed next year too and no DH available for any of them.

So they’re sitt on Tibbs and Ward who are already shafted bc Alex Call is also deserving.. And under control next year. Much has been said about Tibbs, but Ward, although a 40, he is a 40 that is 28 and hit 90 HR in 403 AAA games from 2023 to 2025. And just got optioned back three days ago. If they’re not let out of AAA purgatory at some point, they’ll be nothing, or leave for nothing in a 40-man crunch..

To that extent, they have Hope, Sirota, Quintero, and DePaula, in the stud category. They’re all 50s, at least, and the Dodgers don’t even have room for them in AAA, let alone the majors. But there is a lot more.

I don’t think there is any scenario that Davalan hasn’t improved his grade, formerly 40+ call it 45.

Ehrhard might still be a 40+, but he’s gotta be a high probability 40+, that has nothing else to prove in AAA as a 23 year old.

Kendall George might still be a 40+ due to his lack of power, but a 40+ proving he doesn’t have much left to prove at AA as a 21 year old.

Ryan George has also hedl his value or added to it.

Not to mention Kellon Lindsey and Ching-Hsien Ko, both are very likely 40+ grades now. Lindsey perhaps a 45.

So that’s 4 stud prospects, and 8 legit prospects, 2 who (Tibbs and Ward) that already olayed themselves out of AAA but are stuck – bloocking other guys – all in the mid to high minors, that have all played themselves into a promotion conversation that literally have nowhere they can be promoted to.

This isn’t a situation that can solve itself. They’re full next year in the OF. Injury or trade are the only things that can change anything for at least 1.5 years.

OTOH, their pitchint is kind of a mess. Serinski, Nieves, Ferris, Carias, and Karros have taken big steps back, Root and Leiter are forever from the bigs, Auger is pitching fine but as a 24-year old repeating high A, Gonzalez is in holding mode but quickly staring at a season of more or less lost development, and Gavin Stone and Landon Knack are anyone’s guess.

Freeland is close to proving he’s not a starting solution at SS or 2B. Joendry Vargas is losing value and appeal by the day. Morales is struggling in high A with K’s and a 90 wRC+, and forever from the big leagues anyways.

They have a good OF problem, but bad infield and pitching problems. Besides Samuel Munoz and Landyn Vidourek, every OF prospect has held or gained their prospect value. They essentially have to deal from that depth because it’s not a situation of they can’t find big league playing time for them all, they literally can’t keep them all or even find pt for them in the minors.

They don’t have the luxury of keeping guys based on talent, because they have a dozen of them for exactly zero spots. If anything, they are seriously downplaying their interest in dealing some OFers, and probably that includes DePaula, they’re just driving up the asking price for him.

formerly matt wMember since 2025

19 days ago

Reply to dodgerbleu

would a tl;dr be, it makes sense for them to deal some outfield prospects for similarly valued prospects who aren’t outfielders?

sadtromboneMember since 2020

19 days ago

Reply to formerly matt w

This is kind of what I was saying, except (1) the way it was worded in the report does not make sense, and (2) nobody on earth thinks the Dodgers would ever deal away a guy they actually liked. The team that does a deal with the Dodgers where LAD trades away their upper level depth who can’t crack the main roster deserve what they get.

-4

gettwobrute79Member since 2026

18 days ago

Reply to sadtrombone

I see this thought often expressed with the Rays and I have to say I disagree to an extent. It assumes the Rays/Dodgers would never miss on an evaluation of a player. Are the better than most if not all organizations? Yep. Doesn’t mean they won’t miss on a player though.

dodgerbleu

17 days ago

Reply to gettwobrute79

Agreed.. Their trade track record is spotty, but people only remember the Betts and Trea Turner deals..

Miguel Vargas, Alexander Albertus, and Jeral Perez for Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman is an L, and even in 2024 at the time seemed like a more than fair return for the Sox… The Cards lost, but they chose Fedde and Pham as their return and that sucks. No one thought of the Vargas-Kopech/Edman portion as the Dodgers pulling one over, even though no one penciled Vargas in for his current peformance..

O’Neil Cruz and Angel German for Tony Watson is as lopsided as a deal can get in favor of the Pirates, big L for the Dodgers.

Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields is going to haunt the Dodgers for eternity.

Clayton Beeter for Joey Gallo is inconsequential, but still a legitimate major league bullpen arm for the unplayable version of Joey Gallo.

Busch for Hope and Ferris is seen as win-win, but the Dodgers still haven’t actually gotten anything from that deal, and deserve credit for improving Hope in any event.

5 years of Pepiot and 6 years of Deluca for 3-months of Glasnow and Margot was very good value for the Rays, I suspect they’d still do it even if they expected Pepiot to have a hip surgery a year in.. The Dodgers might defend it, and they might even do it again but only because they couln’t keep everyone.. No other team in baseball sees Glasnow’s contract as a positive. Probably because the list of pitchers that have pitched more innings than Glasnow since his debut in 2016, even after his career high last year, includes guys like Trevor Bauer who hasn’t pitched since half a season in 2021, and Jon Lester who retired in 2021.

The Brusdar-Kenta Maeda trade was always fair on both sides.

Point is, the Dodgers trade high-end guys in these deals, often enough that other teams shouldn’t be concerned that they’re being bamboozled. At all.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026

17 days ago

Reply to dodgerbleu

Right. No team bats 1,000 on trades, but fans may remember the Betts type trades and give them excessive credit for those type deals.

Given the name, I’m assuming you’re a dodger fan. What are you willing to part with Skubal? Or would you prefer Joe Ryan?

dodgerbleu

14 days ago

Reply to gettwobrute79

Haha, I was a huge Dodger fan when I made it.. Not sure when that was, but I was a proud member of the Corey Kluber fan club, that was 2013 here, and I wasn’t new to the site then.. At that point I had just ended a streak of attending 11 Home Opening Days in a row, but still showed up to work flying a Dodger flag. But today, no, I’m not a huge Dodger fan.. To the extent that I went to multiple WS games in each of 2017/2018, and one year even embarrissingly grew a Justin Turner beard, to say nothing of playoff games, to watching the most of the 2020 series, to watching exactly 1 WS game and 0 playoff games in 2024/2025 combined.. And I was in a bowling and very friendly with Nick Punto for one of those. He gave me a bday present and wrote Twins on it to bother me and it didn’t at all, it was just funny.. Vin Scully was a big figure for me growing up, and I’m a Shohei fan, but if it wasn’t for him, I’d care for them less than most of the other 29 teams. If I ever even watch another game, it’ll be Shohei pitching in the WS..

I’d still very much like for them to trade for Skubal, for him, for the people to get the best pitcher in baseball in October, and to free guys that are undeservedly blocked. And my friends and family circles are very Pro-Dodgers, I have two nephews that are big fans because of me, so I guess I still have an interest.. To the extent that I still keep up with them closely, I just don’t root, watch, or support them.

That big ass disclaimer said, I don’t think they really like or believe in Hope, and suspect he’s anchor number one. I think they mistakenly like Quintero over Sirota, and Sirota is anchor number two. And Quintero is fine, it’s just that Sirota is really good.

I think Hope and Sirota does most of the heavy lifting. I think River Ryan is too much to include, but the Tigers are going to need a replacement arm back. So the Dodgers are going to ask for something back.. They probably really like Max Anderson, and kick in a fourth peice to get him back.. Or they take someone like Gage Workman and call it a day..

Best guesses:
Hope, Sirota, River Ryan, and Cam Leiter* for Skubal and Max Anderson

Hope, Sirota, River Ryan, fungible low level 40-type prospect for Skubal and Gage Workman.

*Roundabouts.. I think the Tigers ask for a Zach Root and they settle on a Cam Leiter or could maybe get LAD to include Oliver Gonzalez..
The low level names are super fungible.. I don’t think the Dodgers let a deal pass because of the part of the deal they consider to be filler. If the Tigers prefer, the Dodgers could include a couple of live arms that probably dropped from 40 FV, or are darn close, like Hyun-Seok Jang and Sterling Patick. Or they could take one arm and a young bat that’s slipped, like Reyli Mariano, and the Dodgers are happy to round out the trade and lock it in.. They’d probably include one in the first idea too, make it a 5-for-2 deal.. But the core IMO is Hope, Sirota, and River Ryan.
I prefer Skubal over Ryan, but if it’s Ryan, I think they can hang on to Sirota and dangle Rushing instead, but besides those two guys swapping, and LAD pulling up short of including Cam Leiter but someone older like Kyle Hurt instead..
Hope, Sirota, River Ryan, and Kyle Hurt for Joe Ryan and a lottery ticket – Dasan Hill or Enmanuel Merlo, somone like that..

drewsylvaniaMember since 2019

20 days ago

One thing that always stands out from the prospect work here, is how difficult scouting actually is. It’s much harder than I thought, there’s an insane number of variables that vary. Thank you guys for all that you do.

BirdsFanMember since 2017

20 days ago

using binoculars (closer) or telescope (further away) rank who has the best career: Joshua Baez STL, Jefferson Rojas CHC, Johan de los Santos PIT, Josuar Gonzalez SK, Francisco Renteria PHI, or Emil Morales LAD

sadtromboneMember since 2020

20 days ago

Reply to BirdsFan

Josuar is an amazing talent. Think Francisco Lindor as a 70 fielder instead of an 80. But he cannot stay healthy. If I thought he was going to stay healthy I would pick him by a mile.

sadtromboneMember since 2020

20 days ago

Reply to sadtrombone

Emil Morales and Johan de Los Santos are going to be a lot of fun though. Morales is kind of a Willy Adames / Trevor Story type. de Los Santos is more in the Jason Kipnis / Cedric Mullins range. Fun player, but when the speed starts to go the whole profile is going to fall apart.

BirdsFanMember since 2017

20 days ago

using binoculars (closer) or telescope (further away) rank who has the best career: Kade Anderson SEA, Seth Hernandez PIT, Thomas White MIA, Jarlin Susana WAS, Jackson Flora NCAA

sadtromboneMember since 2020

20 days ago

Reply to BirdsFan

Kade Anderson. Hernandez is the only other one even in the conversation. The other guys have a ton of talent but they need a lot of work. Meanwhile I am ready to pencil in Kade Anderson as a regular all-star as of 2028.

-2

jdbolickMember since 2024

20 days ago

Reply to BirdsFan

Hernandez – big gap – Flora then Anderson – small gap – White then Susana.

Seth Hernandez’s stuff is on a completely different level. His high 90s fastball has some late tail that makes it incredibly difficult to barrel, then his slider neutralizes righties while his curve and change both have enough depth to deal with lefties. He’s really exciting.

I give Flora the edge over Anderson mostly because his command is better, but I think his stuff is a little better as well. While Anderson’s numbers are ridiculous, that’s what a top SEC graduate should be doing against AA batters. I’m a little worried about his command, as if you watch his games you should notice that his catcher is frequently having to move the glove to receive the pitch. I really want to see guys hitting their spots and dotting the edges of the strike zone (Ryan Sloan does this). To me, there is too much hype around Anderson at the moment, as I see him becoming a good third starter.

White and Susana are nastier than Anderson but have so much command related risk that I would never bet on them. Anderson will miss spots but still throw a lot of strikes whereas White and Susana are all over the place.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026

19 days ago

Reply to jdbolick

Given the way the draft is likely to go for the Bucs, I’m hoping Flora ends up being their pick. His stuff sounds pretty good and if he can tighten up the command a bit, it will really tie the profile together.

dan norman learMember since 2024

19 days ago

Reply to gettwobrute79

IMHO, I think the Pirates are going to have a very good shot at Flora. Doesn’t feel like a match for the W. Sox, Rays, or Twins. Giants seem like a huge wild card, but I would think they’d go for a bat.

The key then will be convincing Seth Hernandez to take on the nickname Fauna.

gettwobrute79Member since 2026

18 days ago

Reply to dan norman lear

Every outlet I’ve perused sees no connection with Flora and the Giants so I’m cautiously optimistic he’ll be there.

I don’t think there’s any way the top 3 drop to Pittsburgh, even though they have the means to float them there. I just don’t want Lombard.

kingharbaughMember since 2021

19 days ago

Reply to jdbolick

Needing to move the glove to receive the pitch is not an indicator of whether or not someone has command. Most pitches received at every level have glove movement, because that’s how catchers are taught to receive pitches. With the advent of PitchCom, catchers no longer have to signal where the pitch should be physically. They will often show the wrong spot in case someone is relaying that information to the batter.

jdbolickMember since 2024

19 days ago

Reply to kingharbaugh

Needing to move the glove to receive the pitch is not an indicator of whether or not someone has command.

Yes, it is. If you watch Anderson then you will see what I’m talking about. He isn’t even close to Ryan Sloan in terms of hitting his spots on the edge of the strike zone.

dan norman learMember since 2024

20 days ago

Mike Sirota = Rusty Greer?

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG