Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 9/8/26
| 2:01 |
: Allllright, a prospect chat. After a long trip, maybe I should ask the questions and you all can tell me happened these last few weeks.
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| 2:01 |
: Kidding. I dutifully prepared by watching Jonah Tong exhaust his rookie eligibility, thank God, last night.
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| 2:01 |
: Hi Brendan! How was your time off?
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| 2:02 |
: I missed baseball but Italy was amazing, thank you.
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| 2:02 |
: Hi Brendan, hope you had a great trip! I was wondering what resources you used when you were learning Italian?
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| 2:02 |
: Started with Duo but things only really took off when I found some friends on Tandem and started talking with them regularly. Supplement with podcasts, books/newspapers, and some tv.
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| 2:03 |
: How close is Enddy Azocar to breaking in 55 FV territory
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| 2:03 |
: He might always be a little too risky for that
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| 2:04 |
: Hey Brendan, as a fellow Davis Polo enjoyer, what are some wish list things he could (realistically) improve with his repertoire next season?
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| 2:04 |
: A little extra gas would go a long way here
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| 2:04 |
: Padres 2nd rounder Elliot Lascelles seems to be acclimating quite nicely at low A, hitting .321/.406/.429 thru 15 games. Is the hit tool looking better than advertised? It was his carrying card but there was a lot of uncertainty given the level of competition he faced as a Canadian high schooler
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| 2:05 |
: Too early to say better but it’s a very encouraging start. Hope to catch him in instructs soon.
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| 2:05 |
: Welcome back! What (if anything) do teams do to prepare their pitching prospects for the jump from the minor league ball to the MLB/AAA ball? If a guy is shredding AA to end the year, does he practice exclusively with the big league ball over the winter to start fast in AAA in the spring? Would he do that regardless of level?
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| 2:06 |
: A lot of different approaches. Seattle, by all evidence, basically doesn’t care, they let their top farmhand go straight from the AA ball to the big leagues even though he’d long since thoroughly outclassed the level.
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| 2:07 |
: As far as the offseason work goes, good question, I’ll ask around.
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| 2:08 |
: In general, it’s not usually a huge adjustment. The ball may behave a little differently, but most of the pitchers themselves don’t seem to need a ton of time to get comfortably.
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| 2:08 |
: For players like Ace Reese, Drew Burress, and other SEC draftees with strong A level starts. How meaningful (Meaningless?) are their starts? Their average pitching competition has to be a step down from their SEC schedule or at best comparable right?
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| 2:08 |
: The topline numbers are not especially meaningful, I don’t think, for most post-draft debutantes.
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| 2:10 |
: It’s nice that these guys are hitting, but it’s a weird enough transition/environment that it’s (usually) not alarming even if they struggle
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| 2:10 |
: If they physically don’t look the part, that’s a different story.
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| 2:10 |
: Ask away, I’ll answer what I can. To start, yes Joshua Baez has been as volatile as advertised.
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| 2:10 |
: My goodness
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| 2:11 |
: Anybody asked Eric lately if he thinks Baez will hit?
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| 2:11 |
: Do you have any insight on Ali Camarillo of the A’s? Has risen several levels this season without missing a beat
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| 2:11 |
: Up-down guy
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| 2:12 |
: Thoughts on the recent CBS Sports piece on Driveline’s influence on how hitting is taught in professional baseball? Has the emphasis on developing bat speed and a lift & pull approach broken just as many hitters as it’s helped? Or conversely, if you’re a hitter who isn’t well-suited to adopting a high bat speed, lift-and-pull approach, does that mean you’re no longer as valuable to your team because your ceiling is lower? Is a fast swing, lift and pull approach for hitters becoming what 97 mph and a slider is becoming for pitchers–table stakes? As a player, do you try to develop that (and take the risk that you can’t, whether due to injury or because the approach doesn’t suit you), because the alternative is that you don’t develop into a good major leaguer at all?
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| 2:12 |
: For those who haven’t seen it, I liked Julian McWilliams’s story, which you can read here.
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| 2:13 |
: Lot of questions, so I think I’ll just kind of riff on the vibe of your paragraph and the story itself for a second
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| 2:17 |
: I don’t know if it’s broken more hitters than it’s helped, but there are tradeoffs at play here
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| 2:18 |
: The more you try to pull/lift, the more vulnerable you make yourself to a swing and a miss. It’s often worth it to sacrifice some contact for power, but what the story does a good job of showing is that, on an individual level, you can’t just pull up your spread sheet and shave your contact rate by 8.7% and add 12 homers to your season total
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| 2:20 |
: And as a hitter, there are some potential consequences to straying too far from what works for you
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| 2:21 |
: fwiw, I also really liked Kyle Boddy’s quotes from that piece.
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| 2:21 |
: How far behind the Giants’ young shortstop trio of Josuar, Luis Hernandez, and Jhonny Level is Joniel Hernandez in prospect value?
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| 2:21 |
: Eric and I may be split on this one, I really like Hernandez, I think he’s a little more skeptical of the bat
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| 2:22 |
: Do you think we will soon get to a place to where statcast data for all games in full season affiliates will be available to the public? And not just FSL/AAA+a select few CPX stadiums
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| 2:22 |
: I assume we’ll get there eventually, no clue on the timetable
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| 2:22 |
: Both NYM and MIL lost the Peralta trade??
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| 2:23 |
: Too early to write off Sproat
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| 2:23 |
: “In general, it’s not usually a huge adjustment. The ball may behave a little differently, but most of the pitchers themselves don’t seem to need a ton of time to get comfortably.” Maybe this is true for majority but if you look at the walk rates of guys like Hopkins/Milbrandt/perales it has significantly effected some
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| 2:24 |
: note the “most”
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| 2:24 |
: And even for them: is it the ball or something else?
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| 2:25 |
: yostin pena top 100 now for you guys? or not yet?
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| 2:26 |
: I’m sure we’ll talk about it soon, I know E wants to do one more 100 update before the end of the year. Could see him being the kind of player we want to take a little more time to noodle on/check with sources.
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| 2:26 |
: Obviously sss but Justin Lebron has been tearing it up so far, albeit with a 27.6% k rate at A-ball. Is he athletic enough to bet on despite the swing and miss?
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| 2:26 |
: Depends on what you’re betting on. A useful big leaguer in some capacity? It’s in there. A fortune on his baseball cards in the hope that he’s the next Ohtani? I would advise against it.
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| 2:26 |
: Bobby Miller is back from the dead, but he still has bad command and now he’s down from 98-101 to 96-98 throwing a curveball as his primary. Does he have a legit second life as a reliever?
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| 2:27 |
: 20 deception might be the biggest problem there. Solve for that and sure. If not… ehhh
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| 2:27 |
: Luis Mey has been lights out since he was recalled ~ a month ago. Are you a believer that he can continue to find the zone with regularity?
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| 2:28 |
: “Continue” is doing a fair bit of work for someone with a 13.5% walk rate
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| 2:28 |
: I wouldn’t bet on a whole lot more than that
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| 2:28 |
: Does the fact that the Brewers let Thomas Pannone throw 9 innings (albeit in 94 pitches) allow us to infer that they don’t see him as a future MLB contributor, given that if they did, they wouldn’t waste those bullets in AAA?
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| 2:29 |
: I don’t think letting a guy throw 9 ip or 95 pitches is dangerous in all but a handful of situations
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| 2:30 |
: If the question behind the question is ‘would a team let someone like Pannone go for something like this in a way that they would never do for Josh Knoth’ then the answer is yes
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| 2:30 |
: On the mid season Board update you guys ranked the top 20 and under shortstop prospects in the order of Made, Arias, De Vries, Willits, and Walcott. Walcott has obviously looked very good since returning from injury. Would you still rank this group the same? Or do you imagine some shake ups come next spring?
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| 2:31 |
: Likely some shakeup. As with most guys with long-term injuries, we pushed Walcott to the back of a tier until he was back and playing and looking like himself.
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| 2:31 |
: Is Rafael Flores of the Pirates an up-and-down power-only guy, or does his thump give him a shot at being a real contributor over the next few seasons?
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| 2:31 |
: The latter but it might be in more of a 400 PA role than a regular
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| 2:31 |
: Iirc, you wrestled with the Henry Godbout ranking this cycle. After missing a chunk of time with injury so that everything is going to be a small sample, he’s up in AA crushing HRs in a small sample. Does it feel like anything is different here from your report?
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| 2:31 |
: Not a bit.
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| 2:33 |
: Looking at Cooper Pratt, even conceding that he’s probably more likely to run a 90-95 wRC+ in the near future vs the 101 he’s currently at, does him producing at a 4-wins-per-600-PA rate have you moving the needle on the 45 FV he graduated at? The defense and baserunning seem extremely real.
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| 2:35 |
: If he settles in as a low-90 wRC+ guy, he’ll have exceeded our forecast.
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| 2:35 |
: Still early days, obviously off to a good start.
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| 2:36 |
: Is Scott Bandura still a 35+? He’s been one of the best hitters in AAA since late June and his hit tool looks genuinely good (definitely better than 30/40)
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| 2:37 |
: Might be a little above that now, but lack of a carrying tool makes him a tricky roster fit if he doesn’t really hit
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| 2:38 |
: Is Josh Knoth quietly becoming the best starting pitcher in the Brewers system?
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| 2:38 |
: yes
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| 2:38 |
: Can Rafe Perich hang at third base? Is he trending towards a productive middle-of-the-order bat?
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| 2:38 |
: I think he’s below average but playable there
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| 2:39 |
: Productive middle of the order bat would surprise me
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| 2:40 |
: could you name a comp from the last 20 years for a peak franklin arias?
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| 2:41 |
: —usual comp caveats—The production could look a lot like Boston Xander Bogaerts
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| 2:41 |
: Will there be any additions or revisions to the top 100 before the list that comes out during Prospect Week?
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| 2:41 |
: Probably some small ones
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| 2:42 |
: More on the order of “if we see something that obviously needs remedying, we’ll do it now” than the weeks-long midseason or offseason update project
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| 2:42 |
: Hey Brendan! Did you ever happen to get an update on Michael Arroyo’s LF defense in person? I’m assuming somewhere in the 30-40 range
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| 2:43 |
: No, never got him there in person unfortunately. I imagine he’ll be playable there, athletic/speedy enough to think he could be ~average but wouldn’t anticipate much more
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| 2:43 |
: Devin Taylor is knocking on the door of the bigs. Would you say he’s the same guy he was when he was drafted (polished hitter, DH-level defense)? Or has anything changed?
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| 2:43 |
: Same guy
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| 2:43 |
: Thanks as always for doing these and I’m glad you enjoyed Italy! I’m curious about your process for evaluating players who missed time with injury and is acclimating to a new level? For example, Jacob Reimer started off very slow at AA, missed about a month, and appears (based on his slash) to be performing much better. What in particular are you looking for with hitters and pitchers respectively?
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| 2:44 |
: Learning more about the slow start is a priority in this case. Was he nursing something for a couple months before he went on the IL?
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| 2:44 |
: what’s a reasonable ceiling to dream on for Conor Essenburg? Something like Ian Happ or Teoscar where there’s plenty swing and miss but enough thump to cover for it?
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| 2:44 |
: Feels reasonable enough.
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| 2:45 |
: Has Eric communicated his thoughts (self proclaimed obsession) with Grindlinger yet?
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| 2:45 |
: On multiple occasions
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| 2:45 |
: How much does a period of struggle following a promotion affect the view of a prospect with a lot of helium? Thinking Braves players – Eric Hartman, Conor Essenburg, etc
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| 2:45 |
: Depends on the player/what the issue is
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| 2:46 |
: Jefferson Rojas looked like a talented guy going through a slump while acclimating to a new level of competition
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| 2:46 |
: He didn’t seem totally overwhelmed, or exploitable in ways that looked damning, even though the numbers were awful
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| 2:47 |
: And now, who even remembers his 2025 AA performance now that he’s torn the cover off the ball for a year at that level
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| 2:47 |
: Celesten, meanwhile, is struggling with the exact things that have long looked like the potential stumbling blocks
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| 2:48 |
: Doesn’t mean it’s time to jump off the guy entirely, but it’s a different conversation than Rojas
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| 2:48 |
: As for Hartman and Essenburg specifically, I’m going to punt and blame vacation, feel free to ask again next week when I’ve gotten a little more up to speed
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| 2:49 |
: While I agree, Mey’s walk rate is down to 9.5% since he was recalled
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| 2:49 |
: I’d be surprised if that’s the new normal
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| 2:50 |
: Relievers can do all sorts of weird things, good or bad, in a month’s sample
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| 2:50 |
: I’ve seen a couple people now including you mention that a lack of deception is the key factor explaining Bobby Miller now living up to his rankings. How can we pick that up in the next guy like him?
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| 2:52 |
: Good question, not an easy answer. As a scout, there are things I’m looking for: does he have a slow arm? Does he show the ball to hitters for a long time (this can be a problem for open striders)? Is his stroke nice and easy for a hitter to time?
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| 2:53 |
: And then on the results end: Does this guy get hit harder than it looks like his stuff should? If yes, can we work backwards and find a reason for that?
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| 2:53 |
: Part of the reason this is tricky though is that guys with good stuff and bad deception still work out sometimes. Miller himself was awesome as a rookie.
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| 2:54 |
: Eric seems to have become a Grindlinger superfan in your absence, even threatening to corral you into a Top 100 placement. You on board?
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| 2:55 |
: Sure. One of many reasons I think we work well together is that each of us is pretty willing to let the other bet big on a guy
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| 2:55 |
: We’ve 100’d a fair few guys pretty early that way
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| 2:56 |
: do you think sirota and/or tibbs get moved this off season? hard to see where playing time will shake out with de paula being added to the 40 man and their current log jam
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| 2:56 |
: Wouldn’t surprise me. Davalan in that mix too. They continue to have strength in numbers in the outfield.
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| 2:57 |
: Trying to take out their projection or your feelings for them as prospects, are you more impressed with what Luis Hernandez has done as a 17 year old (great at the complex, surviving at A ball) or what Level has done as a 19 year old (crushed A ball, great at high A)?
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| 2:57 |
: Hernandez’s is the more impressive accomplishment
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| 2:58 |
: welcome back brendan. what was your favorite thing eaten while on vacation?
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| 2:58 |
: Arrosticini
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| 2:58 |
: They’re a specialty in Abruzzo and they were incredible
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| 2:59 |
: Let me find the name of this restaurant
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| 3:01 |
: Margherita 1 in Piniella
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| 3:01 |
: an 80
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| 3:02 |
: One of those places where they don’t even give you the menu
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| 3:02 |
: What’s up with Connor Phillips? As a Reds fan he reminds me of Lucas Sims and that’s not a compliment. “Unhittable at times but can’t consistently get it done”
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| 3:02 |
: Think that’s just how it’s gonna be
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| 3:02 |
: Re: the deception question, also maybe that he has a noticeably different stride for certain pitches? (Doesn’t seem to be the case with Miller at a quick glance, but I’ve noticed when fooling around with Statcast’s minors search a few instances where the pitcher’s extension varies enough between pitch types that it’s more than a bit curious.)
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| 3:03 |
: Sharp eye, this does happen. There are guys who telegraph what’s coming in this way (and others)
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| 3:03 |
: Bonemer is apparently playing CF now. Bat’s looking good in AA but defensive spot clearly up in the air… any hope to be passable out on the grass?
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| 3:03 |
: He looked a little faster than I expected at the Future’s Game but even with that in mind center was… not the first place I’d have though to project him.
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| 3:04 |
: Brendan- Any thoughts on the Tigers’ Max Anderson? He has been tearing up AAA this year, yet the Tigers keep promoting other rookies up. Is it a lack of defense type issue, or is there some other reason you can speculate on?
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| 3:04 |
: I’m not overly enamored with him, reserve type for me and apparently them.
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| 3:06 |
: re: the “ketel situation”, are there guys you see coming up who you can see have mental struggles like that, and does that hurt their overall? do you foresee teams working with/around those issues, or trying to avoid them entirely?
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| 3:07 |
: Part of the tricky part with mental health is that you can’t always see what someone is going through. Sometimes it’s more obvious than others, but what looks like a crippling issue for one guy may be no big deal for someone else.
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| 3:07 |
: I suspect that, in the long run, we’ll see teams and the league itself handle mental health issues in a much more generous manner.
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| 3:08 |
: Like, I wouldn’t be shocked if a team implements something resembling a PTO policy at some point
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| 3:10 |
: anyone poised to knock Made off the top spot?
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| 3:10 |
: We’ll kick around the big boys, Arias at leas is possible.
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| 3:11 |
: I’ll be in the Peoria area for a HS showcase/tourney this weekend. Are the backfields open to the public? I’d love to catch some pro ball when my kid isn’t playing.
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| 3:12 |
: I believe so, with the caveat that policies can change. Cleveland has at times been tricky here. As a scout, I only had to ask a team to open a gate for me once during instructs, otherwise it was wide open.
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| 3:13 |
: I used to love September call-ups. If we still had the old rules, would you project any changes in how teams finish this year?
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| 3:14 |
: I did too, man. Someone, I think it was John Trupin, wrote something about how it’d be nice to go back to that in games where both teams are eliminated and that seems sensible enough.
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| 3:15 |
: Other than Duno, I dont see any reinforcements on the horizon for CIN. Please tell me I’m wrong
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| 3:15 |
: It’s not a great farm but that kind of thing can change quickly.
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| 3:16 |
: With 565 MLB PA under his belt, where are you landing on TJ Rumfield? The bat speed will never be good (or even average), but the plate discipline, contact skills, and 1B defense are all ranging from well above average to elite. Or is 20 HR potential max at 1B just a non-starter for you?
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| 3:16 |
: Great season, obviously. perfect fit for the park as a contact guy who will get a lot out of the extra real estate.
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| 3:17 |
: And I’d be remiss to not note that he’s been good away from Coors too (.290/.391/.416)
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| 3:18 |
: He’s had a 50 FV season by any reasonable measure, but in the long run, I tend to think that’ll be the high water mark. It is the case that he’s both earned this and I’m skeptical he can do it forever
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| 3:18 |
: Thoughts on Jonah Tong’s latest start? Can he be a rotation piece?
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| 3:20 |
: Fastball looks dynamite
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| 3:20 |
: Change looked plus
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| 3:21 |
: The HR he allowed wasn’t on that bad of a pitch
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| 3:22 |
: Rotation ceiling still
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| 3:23 |
: But more and more it looks like he might just be inconsistent
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| 3:24 |
: After Boston moved Eyanson and Witherspoon, do you think there’s a clearer path for Marcus Phillips to remain a starter? Or do his profile and on-field results still point more toward a reliever?
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| 3:24 |
: Looking like a reliever. Would exhaust as a SP first but…
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| 3:25 |
: What are some improvements that we can reasonably expect KSE to make to how the Angels evaluate and develop prospects? Do you foresee major changes in who oversees their scouting and minor league system?
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| 3:25 |
: His teams generally get resources and give creative control to people who know what they’re doing.
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| 3:26 |
: Sometimes it takes awhile — see Arsenal — but Angels fans should be thrilled here, imo
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| 3:26 |
: As for that means for scouting/PD… Let’s see who the GM is next year
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| 3:26 |
: Are the Rockies brilliant or too cute by half trying to turn Connor Norby in a 2B?
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| 3:26 |
: Neither, reasonable experiment to conduct with a utility guy
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| 3:28 |
: Whoops, answered the wrong question, deleted a couple things
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| 3:28 |
: i’ve heard a lot of prospect ‘gurus’ put down Owusu-Asiedu saying that anyone can do that in his ballpark. so not taking him seriously. theres lots of truth to that but at the same time, his teammates aren’t putting up those kind of numbers. any thoughts on AOA?
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| 3:29 |
: We just saw Manuel Pena do pretty much exactly this
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| 3:29 |
: And he’s an up-down guy/bench bat depending how much you like him
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| 3:29 |
: Owusu-Asiedu is way more tooled out but his eval this coming year will have very little to do with his surface level production in Amarillo
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| 3:32 |
: Any idea where the disconnect is between Nate Payne’s K numbers and his FV/pitch grades?
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| 3:33 |
: He’s probably a little better now that when I last looked at him but there are plenty of guys who run over the low minors with 40 stuff
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| 3:33 |
: Which bubbling O’s prospects could have a major league impact in ’27?
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| 3:33 |
: Eyanson is the juicy one
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| 3:34 |
: Nasty Nestor German seems like he could make starts sooner rather than later
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| 3:34 |
: Vance Honeycutt – should I believe?
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| 3:34 |
: Probably not him
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| 3:36 |
: As players start to debut, what do you like to see from the college players that need development from their draft grades to think about adjusting (know high schoolers are a different animal)? Thinking of a guy like Daniel Jackson, who has a 20/20 hit grade from FG for the Draft report for his own issues and the bandbox that is UGA/metal bats. Players like that typically need to prove it at AA or higher? Imagining a bat like Henry Davis’s has turned out to be (20 hit in majors), but he proved it in AA/AAA with the overall stats, so curious if part of it is the need to stick to your guns on some of these guys, knowing they may just have holes that won’t be exposed until facing the best arms on the planet?
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| 3:37 |
: Depends on the player, but when it comes to adjusting a low hit grade to a higher one, I’d be looking for evidence that he can do something specific that I didn’t think he could do
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| 3:38 |
: Can he suddenly identify a breaking ball? Is the bat way faster than I thought it would be? Is the bat path more manipulable than I gave him credit for?
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| 3:38 |
: If a guy is performing but the underlying issues remain, I’d probably stick with the grade. Plenty of guys with big flaws crush AAA
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| 3:39 |
: Are your thoughts on Escudero more or less similar to the Owusu-Asiedu question you answered?
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| 3:39 |
: In the sense that his eval will have little to do with his surface production? Yes.
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| 3:40 |
: It’s true in all seasons but particularly in this one, where the ball is flying like crazy, the baseball card stats are just not very helpful for guys in the low minors
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| 3:43 |
: Think I’m going to shut it down here today. Thanks for the Q’s, we’ll be back at it next week.
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Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
emanredsfan: Luis Mey has been lights out since he was recalled ~ a month ago. Are you a believer that he can continue to find the zone with regularity?
2:28
Brendan Gawlowski: “Continue” is doing a fair bit of work for someone with a 13.5% walk rate
I see we’re not even bothering to differentiate between his early season walk rate and rate since his recall. 10 of his 18 walks were in those first six appearances. He’s regressed a bit of late but it’s still a drop of 10.38 BB/9 to 3.79. One to watch next year.
you’re talking about 12 appearances when he’s had years of running 15% walk rates in the minors