Busy White Sox Continue Teardown, Send Kendall Graveman (Back) to Houston
The White Sox sent closer Kendall Graveman to the Astros for catching prospect Korey Lee on Friday afternoon. Graveman, signed by the White Sox to a three-year contract days before the 2021–22 lockout started, put up a 3.30 ERA and a 4.00 FIP in 110 appearances with Chicago. This caps off a busy end-of-week flurry for the Sox: Graveman is now the fifth pitcher they’ve traded in 24 hours, after Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Lance Lynn, and Joe Kelly.
Graveman’s peripheral numbers have slid this season as his strikeout and walk rates have continued to deteriorate, and the six homers he’s allowed this season almost match the eight he surrendered in 2021 and ’22 combined, but I’m slightly less concerned about this than I would be in many similar situations. For one, his plate discipline-against numbers don’t support his problems in these departments. Batters are making contact against Graveman less often than any time in his career (ignoring his five-appearance debut season), and his first-strike percentage, a useful leading indicator of walk rate, is better than ever.
Some of the changes seem to be from conscious approach decisions. Graveman started throwing his four-seamer a lot more often in 2022 and has continued that this year but is now almost exclusively throwing it center-high. The result has been a lot more loft on these pitches. In fact, basically all of Graveman’s pitches, including his sinker, have been hit about 10 degrees higher than last year. It’s been enough to transform him from a reasonably strong groundballer in recent years to a pitcher allowing more fly balls than average. On the negative side, his slider has lost some bite, with its break closer to league-average than at his peak, leading to a lower whiff rate (35%) than in 2022 (43%) or ’21 (44%). ZiPS sees him with a 3.59 FIP for the rest of 2023 in Houston and a 3.72 mark in 2024.
Unlike most of the players traded by the Sox so far, Graveman is signed for the 2024 season at $8 million. They are trying to make it clear they intend to compete next season, but I don’t necessarily think trading a player with a 2024 contract heralds a different approach; it may simply be that they feel they can put that cash to better use in free agency rather than paying it to their third-best reliever. Gregory Santos and Aaron Bummer head Chicago’s bullpen now, joined by Keynan Middleton, a free-agent-to-be whom I suspect will also be elsewhere by the Tuesday trade deadline.
Once you get past Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu, there hasn’t been a lot of sizzle in Houston’s bullpen this season. Astros relievers rank in the middle third of the league in WAR, ERA, and FIP, and our depth charts only peg the relief corps as 15th-best in baseball over the rest of the season. The Astros may make other, splashier moves this weekend, but there’s a good argument that they needed to add some depth in the ‘pen, and that’s what Graveman brings to the table.
Heading to the White Sox in return is Lee, who hit .283/.328/.406 for Triple-A Sugar Land and, after the acquisition of Edgar Quero, is now the second Top 100 catching prospect the White Sox have picked up this deadline. Lee has made better contact this year than in 2022, but at a real cost: fewer walks and homers (he’s gone from 25 last year to just five this season despite playing at the same level). The net result has been a 35-point jump in batting average but an OPS more than 50 points lower.
There’s a distinct disagreement between the scouting community and ZiPS on this one. The latter only translated his 2022 season to a .195/.251/.384 batting line, and he did not make its top 200 prospects before the season. His 2023 season translates at .271/.306/.376 thanks to the improved contact rate, but he’s still unlikely to make the ZiPS top prospect list next year.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .223 | .271 | .375 | 435 | 56 | 97 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 55 | 26 | 125 | 8 | 77 | -3 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | .227 | .278 | .383 | 423 | 56 | 96 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 55 | 27 | 119 | 7 | 81 | -3 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | .224 | .274 | .382 | 411 | 54 | 92 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 26 | 113 | 6 | 80 | -3 | 0.5 |
| 2027 | .225 | .277 | .384 | 383 | 51 | 86 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 25 | 103 | 5 | 81 | -2 | 0.6 |
| 2028 | .224 | .279 | .385 | 353 | 47 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 24 | 95 | 4 | 82 | -3 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | .223 | .279 | .386 | 319 | 43 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 42 | 22 | 86 | 4 | 82 | -3 | 0.5 |
Lee appeared to be in a good position to be Martín Maldonado’s eventual successor in Houston, but the emergence of Yainer Diaz made that less likely. My gut feeling is that Diaz is the nominal starter at catcher next year for the Astros, with maybe 300 PA behind the plate and another 100 or so as a DH, with either César Salazar or a defense-first veteran caddy filling out the tandem. It may be a re-signed Maldonado; he’s got more lives than Ernst Stavro Blofeld.
Both teams got what they wanted out of this deal. The White Sox now have an “heir and a spare” to Yasmani Grandal, and the Astros have another solid bullpen arm for the stretch run and postseason. No snarky complaints from me on this one.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Why stop now?
Move a couple of position players and they might have a shot at the lottery regardless of what the other “contenders” do.
This is interesting. I was shocked to find out that anyone was trading for Graveman, but now I get it.
Lee is probably the starting catcher as soon as Grandal is gone. He might not be able to hit but we are going to find out!
Sooner, methinks.
It makes sense to find out where Lee is at before Grandal leaves.
Grandal seems likely to be traded too. Not for terribly much, since his defense has declined significantly this year, but someone is probably at least a little interested in veteran catcher depth.
Likeliest position player to move.
Yankees are an option if they buy instead of selling.
Marlins are a team to watch for Grandal as well.
Rangers too, with Heim on the IL.
Not the Yankees. They’ve been decidedly defense-first at catcher since they jettisoned Sanchez. Nor would they absorb that salary.
Plus he’s rebounded a bit from his disastrous 2022. A catcher who isn’t brutal behind the plate and can maintain an OPS starting with a .7 has value, even if he’s more of an average framer than arguably the best at it in his peak. Now that he’s lost a lot of value through regression in his pitch framing, his noodle arm becomes a bigger issue. I think the cubs stole 11 bags in their two game series with the white Sox this past week. Smfh….trade grandal, include cash, and hope for an interesting 19 year old arm in low-a. Prolly would only get one mediocre/underwhelming prospect in return for grandal.
Yeah I find it hard to believe anyone with the intention of playing in October would want Grandal — it will be a track meet in the playoffs if he starts behind the plate. Maybe the Rangers make a move seeing Heim might be done for the year, but they’d probably like a better option.
Who is better and available?
I think he could be useful in the right matchups. If you’re facing, say, the Rays or DBacks, you definitely can’t start him. But the Angels or Rangers or Twins for example aren’t gonna steal near as much, they’re looking for dingers. The price of a SB or two might be worth it if you’re replacing a near dead spot in the lineup with league average ish offense.
There has been some activity in the trade market but I am still waiting to see a deal that comes close to stoking my interest. Look at the starters that have been moved. Syndergaard and Lynn aren’t even faint apparitions of their former selves but merely mirages, all be it very large mirages. Giolito isn’t much more and the top prospect traded, Edgar Quero, is fighting his way up the wall, but slipping as he climbs. I must admit that I am chuckling at the number of hearses needed to carry the flotsam that are being included in some of the deals with the aforementioned Syndergaard topping the list along with Hernandez, Lynn, Thompson and Santana in the procession.
Dunno what the shot at Quero is for. Kid is a switch-hitting catcher 3.7 years younger than average in AA, treading water offensively. That’s also the the Southern League which trialed the pre-tacked balls the first half of this year, massively suppressing offense. He’s not produced on-paper pop, tho he has some and hits the ball hard, and is walking more than striking out. He also completely skipped A+, the Angels were super aggressive with that assignment. All in all, Quero has faced a remarkably large jump in quality of pitching he’s seeing this year. With that all in mind, it’s still pretty encouraging that he’s staying afloat at the plate.
As a rule, those are the first to be moved in trade season. Soto and his kind will be in play until Tuesday to get the best deal or pull them back.
Because of all the activity, the White Sox played tonight with (I think) only 23 players and 10 pitchers in the building.
and threw a shutout ofc. god bless cleveland’s inept offense. i’m honestly kinda curious to see what touissant does with another shot at full time starting
I always confuse Toussaint with Tyrell Jenkins, who the Cardinals traded to Atlanta in the Heyward trade. Toussaint as been around for a long time for a young guy.
It’s doubful he’ll get into Dotel territory, much less Jackson, but at 27 he’s already been with 5 different organizations: Ari, Atl, LAA, CLE, and currently Chisox.
Classic case of tools over outcomes.
These occasional flashes of brilliance will keep on getting him chances in hopes of him eventually figuring it out but 23% K and 13% W rates aren’t exactly promising. Still he is in the right spot for a change: a team that has nothing left to lose with letting him run.
He’s kinda turned into a sinkerballer recently, gets a lot of grounders. Could be a backend rotation piece if he got the BBS under control
I knew Lee’s prospect luster had waned, but was expecting more than this.
A+ Shakespeare joke in the teaser text.