Capps Returns to Minnesota
The market for relief pitchers is out of control this off-season. After seeing Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell sign lucrative, long-term deals, the Twins chose to re-sign Matt Capps to a one-year $4.75 million deal. While handing out short-term deals to relievers is typically a smart strategy, Capps wasn’t particularly good last season. Did the Twins make a mistake bringing him back?
After finishing 29th overall in reliever WAR last season, the Twins were in desperate need of bullpen help. In 460.2 innings pitched, the Twins’ bullpen posted the leagues worst FIP and xFIP. While Capps was one of the most recognizable members of that bullpen, he actually hurt the Twins last season.
Though he threw 65.2 innings — most of any reliever on the team — Capps managed a -0.4 WAR last season. The main culprit behind Capps’ decline appears to be his strikeout rate, which fell to an unacceptable 4.66. While Capps has never been identified as a strikeout pitcher, it’s nearly impossible to succeed when you strike out so few batters. Of all relievers that threw at least 50 innings last season, Capps’ K/9 rates as the second worst in baseball.
Capps’ HR/9 rate — which has been a problem for him throughout his career — took a turn for the worse last season as well. Over his career, Capps’ HR/9 has fluctuated from acceptable (2007, 2008 and 2010) to downright terrible (2006, 2009 and 2011). Target Field suppresses home runs, but that didn’t stop Capps from allowing five of them in just 35.2 innings at home last season.
One of the reasons for Capps’ struggles may have been his decreased velocity last season. According to Pitch f/x, Capps’ fastball averaged 93 mph last season. That’s down from 94.1 in 2010, and 93.5 in 2009. While Capps’ fastball still received a positive 4.7 pitch type value last season, it was a much less effective pitch than usual. Over his career, Capps has relied on his fastball as his best pitch. He’ll need to rediscover his velocity if he hopes to return to his old self.
Since the Twins handed out such a cheap, short deal, it’s tough to be extremely critical. While Capps was a main contributor to the Twins’ poor bullpen last season, it’s not as if they had anyone waiting in the wings to take over the closer role. Glen Perkins performed quite well for the Twins last season, but he still only managed to pick up two save opportunities.
The Twins are only paying Capps $4.75 million this season, so he doesn’t even have to perform all that well in order to make the deal worth it for the Twins. When Capps has been healthy, he’s been worth about 1 win per season — equal to the deal he received from the Twins.
If Capps’ struggles last season are the first signs of decline, the Twins may regret the deal. Thankfully, Capps was only signed for one season and the Twins can void his option for only $250,000. Should Capps rebound, the Twins could have an interesting trade chip at the trade deadline. While Capps displayed some worrisome signs in 2011, the Twins took very little risk in hoping Capps returns to form in 2012.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
“One of the reasons for Capps’ struggles may have been his increased velocity last season. According to Pitch f/x, Capps’ fastball averaged 93 mph last season. That’s down from 94.1 in 2010, and 93.5 in 2009.”
“decreased” in the first sentence
Thank you. This is fixed.
I think being first gave me an erection.
Glad I could be a part in this momentous occasion.
the deal is terrible when you add in the fact that the twins gave up a first round draft pick to sign capps.
They gave up a first round draft pick to themselves?
Capps was Type B if I’m not mistaken. So they gave up a supplemental round pick to sign him.
Not really, they would have blown that too.
Really Brad? Really?
exactly. failure to factor this pick is what make this signing completely worthless. how can the twins be the top bidder when they have higher costs associated with keeping him (a pick) than anyone else? It makes no sense especially when there are a multitude of other internal and external replacement level bullpens arms that can do the same job as him. as a twins fan, i honestly couldn’t sleep last night because of this signing. it’s terrible because we forfeit a pick for no good reason.
You couldn’t sleep over a supplemental round draft pick? You need some hobbies dude! I would be losing sleep over the 40 mill you’ve got locked up in 2 cripples.
I totally agree. I can’t believe this signing. You took the words right out of my mouth.
it’s not just the pick and I have plenty of hobbies. it’s the idea that I thought maybe things might change with Bill Smith out the door, but it’s just more of the same not understanding the value of picks and replacement level. we already have about 8-9 replacement level starters that can easily do the same thing as Capps in the bullpen but we decide to forfeit more of our future. I’ve just grown so tired of dumb move after dumb move – (trading Ramos for Capps, giving up Hardy for nothing so we can have some speed at SS with Nishioka as the most recent prime examples. Yes Mauer and Morneau look like bad contracts now, but I can’t fault that because they were reasonable given what was known at the time)
I agree with d_i. This deal = Bill Smith’s bad deals live on. It might even suggest Gardy wanted a “proven closer” and went straight to Pohlad with this complaint.
That said, perhaps the pitching staff knows more than we do about what was going on with Capps in 2011. If Capps turns out okay, I’ll trust Terry Ryan quite a bit and hope they move him to permanent.
The other possibility is that Andy MacPhail comes back to Minnesota for 2012.
Look, I didn’t mean to be a tool (okay, yeah I did), but what are the new rules anyway. If he is even slightly effective, don’t the Twins get a supplemental pick next time he’s a free agent? I don’t even think they have to offer arbitration right? So I think all they really did was put off the #40 (oh so covetted) supplemental draft pick. Maybe I’m wrong, but if they will get a pick next year and they didn’t have a great option to close next year, it seems like a descent move. The pick might even be higher if he’s good and is the draft class even very deep this year? Maybe it will be better next year anyway. Maybe they already thought of that! And maybe I’m giving them too much credit!
At least it’s not Kevin Gregg money. And let’s not talk about the high paid 6th inning guys like Soriano and Jenks. It’s one year, it’s not crazy money, and there were crap other options. I’m still wicked confused at the frustration.
Plus, JJ Hardy sucks! Pull that guy out of the non-pressure hole of Baltimore and he can’t hit a lick! And Ramos was pressumed to be useless with a healthy Mauer. They needed to trade him to help a playoff run and got a guy who was one of the best closers in the NL in that season. Hate the hindsight criticism!
@SKob even before his breakout year this year, Hardy was a 2.5 win player for the Twins (not in the no presure situation you attribute as the cause of his success) compared to the -1.1 they got from the positiion this year. As for Ramos for Capps, a highly ranked prospect is never worthless and saying someone is one of the top closers in the NL for a year is a bit of a small sample not? I mean this is fangraphs. We had 5 previous seasons that showed he was replacement level yet the Twins picked 40 good innings and gave up a solid catching prospect for him and his “proven ability to close” only to pick up his $8 million option for being bad once he joined the Twins the next year. It isn’t hindsight as anyone paying attention said both these things at the times these trades were made and now they’re throwing good money (picks) after bad to keep this replacement level guy.
see the thinks from these moves and read the comments if you think this is hindsight. These are moves that were panned from the start.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-matt-capps-trade-twins-perspective/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-j-j-hardy-trade-minnesotas-side/
Obligatory Wilson Ramos snark comment.
“This is a win for the Twins… they didn’t have to trade a future starting catcher to get Capps this time”
(proving the new GM is already doing a better job!)
If they sign dotel or anyone other than crapps the get an additional first rd pick. Writer didnt research subject because he missed main issue.
Yeah Killer, the main point should have been about the talent they could have scored with a supplemental draft pick! That would have been a good read.
So you’re a Yankee fan, eh?
This contract is asinine. The club could have simply used the dollars to buy Todd Coffey and another piece, rather than being doggedly determined to grab a closer.
It’s almost as though the Twins are convinced: Much like shortstop, second base, or center field, you NEED a closer to field a baseball team.
Fun stat: Joe Nathan had more home runs (2) than saves (1) when he joined the Twins. Eddie Guardado? Crappy starter. LaTroy Hawkins? Rick Aguilera? Same thing.
Proven closer is a proven crock.
/rant
I’m waiting, expectantly, for your article on this topic now.
Oh man. I don’t know if we need another perspective, haha.
Does anybody care that the story now is that he was pitching hurt last season? Hello? Hello?
I’m not one to buy excuses for poor seasons, but this guy did put together a nice stretch with Washington before the trade and was decently successful when he was first traded to Minnesota.
He had the lowest walk rate of his career last year and other than K’s/9 was fairly consistant with his previous stats. If you can buy the decreased K rate was due to forearm trouble, I’d much rather have Capps than Dotel or some other scrub.
And anybody who brings up Coffey as a potential closer and thinks he compares to a pre-Twins (lights out) Joe Nathan is high as kite!
Todd Coffey isn’t a closer. Not at all.
But prioritizing a closer on a 99-loss club is borderline lunacy.
Fill out your bullpen with arms, and let the cream rise to the top. It’s not as though closer is always the highest leverage innings, anyway.
The Ramos trade, the gift that keeps on giving.
Capps is PROVEN dagnabbit.
I just think good bullpen arms in general cost 2-3 million. It’s not smart, but it’s a fact. You can’t sign a bunch of descent guys and hope one sticks at closer. Sure maybe Perkins could do it, but Capps has done it, may have been injured, and isn’t new to the team which is a whole added risk.
When you have one of the worst pens in the league, seeing all the same faces return is somehow a “good” thing?
If anything the Twins need new faces.
Everyone in the organization is saying that Capps was pitching through injury for a good chunk of the year because the team was stretched so thin. That was a bad idea that ended badly, but it’s easy to see him returning to be an above average reliever again. It’s not a good deal, regardless, but it should be mentioned (and should have been mentioned in the article, if he was trying to conjure up ideas for Capps’ decline this year).
I don’t consider $5 million for mediocrity cheap. I do consider it an awful allocation of a limited availability of funds.
You should have put the 5m in your back pocket, Bill.
Bill is on extended vacation.
Terry should have put the 5m in a pail, doused it in Ronsonol, and lit it on fire.
done and done.
And the sad thing is this still might have left him better off as he would have at least gotten a comp pick
You’re all failing to understand how the Twins operate. They put a premium on guys that are ‘clubhouse’ guys that give the proverbial 110% every day. Guys just like Capps, Cuddyer, Punto, etc. Those are the guys Gardy likes and both and and Ryan have always preferred a veteran with a track record to a draft pick or a younger player with potential. I’m sure some of that even goes back to Tom Kelly and his mindset. So while we can argue all day about what they should have done, it doesn’t matter. The Twins don’t operate like that. Never have. Never will.
The Twins teams that won the World Series weren’t exactly filled with lovable losers.
are you the same Answerman that calls into KFAN frequently?
And Slowey gets traded to the Rockies for a box of sunflower seeds. He wasn’t a Gardy type of guy, so he’s gone.