Carlos Beltran and Texas: A Match Made in Heaven

Some trade-deadline decisions are painstakingly difficult. The line between buyer and seller can be microscopically thin and the undeniable appeal of winning win can easily tempt teams to hold onto talented players when logic dictates that selling is the right call. For the Yankees, the decision was harder than it should have been this season. For the Rangers, it was as clear as day.

The Yankees are a .500 team sitting just five-and-a-half games out of a wild-card position, and yet the decision to sell couldn’t have been more obvious to those of us on the outside without emotional or financial stakes on the line. Selling is not part of the Yankees’ M.O. They expect to win and, more often than not, they deliver on that expectation. But with a roster laden with aging veterans and little-to-no evidence of an emergent winning core, the obvious choice was for the Yankees to improve their future outlook by trading players who had minimal chances of being key contributors to the next winning Yankees team. To general manager Brian Cashman’s credit, they made the right call and returned impressive prospect value for relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. Today, they cashed in another obvious trade candidate and sent Carlos Beltran to the Texas Rangers.

For the Rangers, six games up in the division despite a roster with blatant holes and an unimpressive run differential of +3, the decision to buy was an easy one. They’re a team that’s benefited from luck, but one that also possesses enough core talent that it’s more than conceivable a few roster upgrades could put this team in position to win in October. As has been discussed ad nauseam this season, the American League is lacking for obvious powerhouse postseason favorites, unlike the Senior Circuit which is starkly stratified by roster talent. Add to the mix the fact that the Rangers have a farm system dripping with top-tier talent and now was as good a time as any for the Rangers to push their chips all in.

A Beltran/Rangers pairing was such a strong and evident match on paper that Dave Cameron correctly predicted the trade last week (in addition to the Jeremy Jeffress acquisition!). When looking to upgrade a roster, the first place to check is a team’s weaknesses and the Rangers this season have far and away received the worst production out of the designated-hitter position in the American League thanks primarily to Prince Fielder’s ineffectiveness. With Fielder out for the season and a hitter of Beltran’s quality available on the trade market, this match was kismet.

Now 39 years old, Beltran is in the middle of arguably his best offensive season since 2011. He’s posted a 134 wRC+ and already banked 22 home runs on the year. The switch-hitter has obliterated left-handed pitchers this year (.351/.405/.640 slash line, 114 plate appearances) and, although the numbers against righties are less stunning, he’s more than held his own against them (.282/.314/.502, 245 plate appearances). If you’re looking for a negative, you can point to the fact that he’s seen his walk rate fall to a career low thanks to a uncharacteristically high swing rate on balls outside the zone (O-Swing%), but that’s a mere picking of nits. He will immediately slot in as the most productive hitter in a Rangers lineup that’s been largely mediocre this season.

In exchange, the Rangers are sending three minor-league right-handed pitchers — Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, and Nick Green — in a return that’s underwhelming for New York. Tate is the big name thanks to his status as the fourth-overall pick out of UC Santa Barbara in last summer’s amateur draft, but his stock has been steadily dropping since the start of his professional career. He’s currently struggling mightily in Low-A Hickory and was left off mid-season top-prospect rankings entirely. He’s still a pitcher who wowed scouts barely a year ago, so it’s conceivable the Yankees are buying low on a guy who could rebound, but he shrinks in comparison to the top prospects of the Chapman and Miller returns. It would have been nice to see the Yankees pull in another top-100-type prospect for a hitter who’s been as productive as Beltran this year, but given that he’s a designated hitter and a free-agent-to-be, it’s not surprising that the return was well below what they received for the two relief aces.

Ultimately, what’s not to love about this deal for Texas? They got the middle-of-the-order bat that they desperately needed and retained enough of their prospects to facilitate the acquisition of catcher Jonathan Lucroy. And, as if that weren’t enough, they managed to finish the day with Joey Gallo still in their system. The Rangers aren’t a perfect team — that lack of rotation depth behind Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish is still cringe-inducing — but they are a markedly better team now than they were when they woke up this morning. If they play deep into October, there’s an excellent chance they’ll be able to look back on today as one of the key reasons why.