Catchers Aren’t Catching the Ball
This is a simple game.
You throw the ball.
You hit the ball.
You catch the ball.
You got it?
I didn’t have to look far and wide for the clips above. Every single one of them is from the first few games of the League Championship Series. Every team is represented, and the collection is hardly exhaustive. I’ve omitted many wild pitches and all of the postseason’s passed balls. So far, during the 2018 playoffs, there have been 24 of the former and six of the latter. Among postseasons since 2002, the current one has already produced the fourth-most wild pitches — with 10 or more games to go. Only once since 2004 have there been more passed balls than during this postseason.
What we are seeing this October surely has some randomness to it, but wild pitches and passed balls have been on the rise over the past few years. It’s not difficult to figure out why. I’m not sure there’s any evidence to suggest the catching profession has gotten materially worse over the last few years. It’s possible that increased emphasis on framing has caused some decline in blocking ability, but that seems more of a stretch when there is a fairly obvious cause present — namely that pitchers are throwing harder than ever and throwing more breaking balls than ever — and are throwing more pitches out of the strike zone, too. Breaking pitches, particularly offerings thrown out of the strike zone, are more likely to end up as wild pitches.
To get a better sense of the trend, consider this graph of wild pitches per game over the last 30 seasons.
We have the strike-shortened 1994 season standing out, but other than that, the four highest averages have come in the last four years. The past three seasons have been the highest during that time. A wild pitch is an official scoring decision, so it is possible that the increase in wild pitches is due to a corresponding decrease in passed balls.
Here’s the number of passed balls per game over the last 30 seasons.
While there are fewer passed balls now than in the early 90s, the numbers have actually gone up over the past few seasons. Here’s the result when we combine wild pitches and passed balls:
If you remove the strike-shortened campaign of 1994, there really aren’t any seasons comparable to what we’ve seen the past few years. For comparison’s sake, here is that last graph above with offspeed percentage since 2002.
Both have seen a steady rise over the last decade, and there has been an increase in velocity and the number of pitches out of the zone over the past decade, as well. All of those factors have likely made it more difficult for catchers to keep the ball in front of them. In the playoffs, the number of wild pitches has generally been pretty close to the regular season. The general rule has not proved correct over the past few seasons. The graph below shows wild pitches per game in the playoffs over the last 17 seasons.
The last two seasons, the number has skyrocketed. Here’s how the numbers above compare to regular-season averages.
This isn’t just a phenomenon of 2018, as the numbers were really big last year, too. While fastball use has decreased over the last few years in the regular season, pitchers have gone away from the fastball even more in the postseason, as the table below shows.
| Year | Regular Season | Playoffs | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 42.7% | 42.8% | 0.1% |
| 2016 | 43.2% | 48.1% | 4.9% |
| 2017 | 44.2% | 47.3% | 3.1% |
| 2018 | 45.0% | 48.0% | 3.0% |
In 2015, pitchers went away from the fastball at roughly the same rate in the regular season and the playoffs, but the last three years have seen even more reliance on non-fastballs. When we combine wild pitches and passed balls in the postseason, we see the frequency this season is unmatched.
Balls are getting to the backstop with runners on base in this postseason nearly twice as often as they did a decade ago. The number of breaking pitches seems a likely factor. Pitchers might be focusing more on getting the batter out than worrying about a baserunner. The pitchers who have thrown them this postseason are starters and relievers, good pitchers and mediocre ones. Here’s the leaderboard for the postseason.
| Player | Team | Wild Pitches |
|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | 2 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 2 |
| A.J. Minter | Braves | 1 |
| Adam Ottavino | Rockies | 1 |
| Andrew Miller | Indians | 1 |
| Arodys Vizcaino | Braves | 1 |
| Brad Hand | Indians | 1 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 1 |
| Cody Allen | Indians | 1 |
| Craig Kimbrel | Red Sox | 1 |
| Dellin Betances | Yankees | 1 |
| Fernando Rodney | A’s | 1 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | Cubs | 1 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 1 |
| Matt Barnes | Red Sox | 1 |
| Ryan Brasier | Red Sox | 1 |
| Ryan Pressly | Astros | 1 |
| Scott Oberg | Rockies | 1 |
| Stephen Tarpley | Yankees | 1 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 1 |
| Will Harris | Astros | 1 |
The Brewers have yet to throw a wild pitch this postseason, although they do have a passed ball. Here’s that leaderboard, as well.
| Player | Team | Passed Balls |
|---|---|---|
| Yasmani Grandal | Dodgers | 3 |
| Martin Maldonado | Astros | 2 |
| Manny Pina | Brewers | 1 |
Grandal had received some attention for his poor showing behind the plate in Game One of the NLCS and he had another passed ball yesterday. In terms of teams, this is what we’ve seen so far when we combine wild pitches and passed balls.
in 2018 Playoffs
| Team | WP+PB |
|---|---|
| Astros | 7 |
| Dodgers | 4 |
| Rockies | 4 |
| Indians | 3 |
| Red Sox | 3 |
| Yankees | 3 |
| Braves | 2 |
| A’s | 1 |
| Cubs | 1 |
| Brewers | 1 |
Given the number of games they have played, the Brewers’ work behind the plate has yielded the fewest errors when it comes to letting balls get by. The Astros have had the most trouble, with Grandal and the Dodgers coming in a ways behind. If you’ve noticed more balls getting by catchers in this season’s playoffs, you are not mistaken. While it might be a bit of an anomaly, there are certain factors in today’s game that lead to more risk of a wild pitch or passed ball. As the wild pitch is still a relative rarity, it’s probably worth focusing on getting the out even if it means throwing a ball in the dirt. While the game is simple, catching is probably harder than it ever has been, and it’s showing up in this year’s postseason.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
*Traumatic flashback to Matt Wieters in the 2017 NLDS*
Why are your scatter plots represented as line graphs?
There’s a clear solution here. Robot catchers.
And what’s amazing about the numbers here- no knuckleballers at all inflating up the numbers some…..
I wonder if pitch framing is helping this along. It seems like trying to catch the ball and present it to umpire may be a slightly different skill than keeping ball in front of you.
This is my theory about why Grandal can frame like a robot, but blocks balls, well, like me
The catcher has enough time to decide that a pitch isn’t reasonably “frame-able” and that it’s time to shift into block mode. Perhaps there is an element to the mechanics of preparing for a pitch that you expect to frame (body positioning, relaxation as the pitcher is releasing the ball, etc) that makes it a little more difficult to react and block a pitch effectively. There are catchers who are good at both framing and blocking, and there are catchers who are good at one and not the other.
Good at framing and blocking: Austin Barnes, Jeff Mathis, Austin Hedges
Good at framing, bad at blocking: Sandy Leon, Tony Wolters, Max Stassi, Tyler Flowers.
Could the increased WP/PB rate in the playoffs be attributable to increased reliever usage? In general relievers have higher BB rates/less control and throw at higher velocity with a higher rate of breaking pitches.
This was my takeaway for the reasons you mentioned. Relievers come in and for 1 inning they throw the nastiest stuff they’ve got. Not to mention, catchers usually have a stronger rapport with starters as they’ve got them for more innings, so I could see the chance of a mix-up getting higher with relievers as well.
If there was a Hall of Fame for not catching the baseball, Gary Sanchez would have his own wing. He is so bad at this and it offends the aesthetics of the game so much. Sometimes it seems like he never even saw the baseball, just whiffing on a pretty close pitch (not talking about cross ups, which you can usually tell). I’m sure there are other good hitters in MLB who can sit behind the plate and miss a bunch of balls — but there is a reason most teams don’t take this approach.
Funny thing is, he was actually pretty good in the postseason. He seems to suffer from concentration lapses from time to time. If he can get the hang of this “catching the ball” thing, his arm/release behind the plate is legit.
Passed balls are overrated as a stat. Guys like Alfaro and Sanchez and Grandal seem particulary prone to passing balls, but the rest of the time they’re such a huge plus defensively it doesn’t matter. They’re so ugly, but so rare, so that the impact is more limited than it seems.
Of course I agree that passed balls are overrated as stats — beside the point. The article is about catchers catching the ball (stats included are interesting but not super revelatory or hardcore). The primary directive for catchers is literally catching. And I can’t stand watching a guy back there who is bad at catching the ball, whether or not it helps the bottom line (quantifying catcher D is still a work in progress anyway, but again, not my point). I don’t want to watch Jose Canseco pretend to catch either, even if his arm and pop time are good. Numbers are awesome (I’m a math minor and still own BP #1 – not Joe Morgan over here). But I watch games and they are less watchable with a butcher behind the plate.
Thesis: Sanchez, allegedly and temporarily a Catcher in MLB, is so bad at catching the ball that it hurts my eyes. If you like the bat, stick it at DH so I don’t have to see this on my TV.
Outside of the subjectivity of scoring a Passed Ball versus a Wild Pitch, I don’t see what about this stat is overrated? The “error” is allowing a runner to advance a base, which obviously changes the complexion of things.
Sanchez was competent in a few postseason games, but his “concentration lapses” are far too regular of an occurrence. He did post a slightly above average 30% CS%, but just ask any fan to guess who led the league in past balls. Most would correctly guess Gary Sanchez, who had five more than any other catcher.
And he missed about two months of the season.
Is that really worth the above average arm? The guy is abysmal defensively, plain and simple.
They’re overrated because despite being one of the more visible things a catcher does, they matter less than throwing runners out and especially pitch framing and game calling. You can be a good defensive catcher that is a poor blocker. You can also be the best blocker in the world and be horrific defensively. Passed balls matter, but they’re only one part of the equation
You never watched Wilin Rosario.
It might even be a bit bigger trend if we normalize to opportunities. Not sure where to get the annual percentage of pitches thrown with runners on base, but it would go along with OBP, which is relatively low recently.
Teams should just put a giant bucket under home plate that collects all baseballs and shoots them back… kind of like the mechanism at a bowling alley.
Enter one of my pet rule change proposal: A batter can try to run to first on any passed ball/wild pitch regardless of the count, number of outs, or if there is a runner on first. There would be a potential negative consequence for throwing those hard sliders in the dirt even without runners on base that would encourage strike throwing and potentially curb strikeouts a little bit. It would also be fun.
Sheesh. So pitchers don’t have enough of a handicap in the pitcher/battle struggle already? What’s the goal here, raising the average number of runs per game to double figures?
I would argue pitchers have the upper hand in general right now, considering all the strikeouts and shifting and such. If not for the juiced ball the last few years, offense would probably still be well below pre-PED testing levels.
Wasn’t the juiced ball disproved in 2018? Like it was even less juiced than 2016 levels?
Correct that the ball appears to be less juiced this year than last. HRs and runs were both right around 2016 levels, which was still a good bit higher than the first part of the decade. The change in the ball supposedly happened in the second half of 2015.
pitchers have clear cut advantage currently
most catchers arent that good these days, teams just throw the most unathletic guy behind the plate. look no further than gary sanchez. sucks. look no further than contreras. sucks. these guys only can catch it if its right down the middle. evan gattis…the list goes on and on.
you show above maldonado and leon, both known for not being that great defensivley. maldonado was given a sandwich and plane ticket to come catch for the astros after mccan got hurt. will be interesting to see which one hurts their team the most.
What?
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=100&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d
Maldonado won a Gold Glove last year. In what circles are these guys “known for not being great defensively”?
then why did the angels trade him for just 250k…..pennies. no demand. angels wouldve taken anything for him. if you want to hang your hat on maldonados glove go for it.
Because he has a 72 career wRC+? And because the Angels weren’t going anywhere?
As an Angels fan, I was a HUGE fan of Maldonado last year and hated him this year due to a sudden decline in defense AND framing. I even started regularly calling him “Passed Baldonado.”
That said, you’re wrong. The Angels also got Patrick Sandoval for him, who has proven himself to be a real starting pitching prospect.
Where do you get 10 or more games to go? Both LCS can end in 2 games and the WS can end in 4, leaving at least 8 games to go.
This article was written yesterday before the games… .so at the point of the article….
AL- at least 3 games left
NL- at least 2 games left(if Brewers had won out)
WS- at least 4 games left
While technically he could have said at least 9 games left- what are the odds that the AL would sweep their 3 games, Milwaukee win both of their games, and then WS end in a sweep? I’d say not too good.
It makes no sense to remove 1994.