Catching up on the ZiPS Top 100 Prospects

All-Star Week is the traditional midpoint of the baseball season — though not the mathematical one – and with the MLB Draft adding a bunch of new prospects to the minors, it’s a good time to look back at the ZiPS prospect list from this past winter. Some prospects have excelled in the majors and some, well, not so much, but that’s why we call them prospects and not certainties. Interpreting minor league statistics properly has always been a challenge, but it’s more so these days with an unusual divergence in offensive levels between the majors and high minors, especially the Triple-A leagues. An .850 OPS that may have been impressive in the International League a few years ago isn’t that mouth-watering these days, while an ERA around four is unusually promising. ZiPS, naturally, has to translate minor league performance as part of predicting how players will fare in the majors, and now that we have public Statcast data for the minors, there’s even more to dig into in 2024.

For each player in last winter’s ZiPS Top 100, I’m listing quick lines for their translated minor league performance (lower-case m), any major league performance, and lastly, a combination of the two to get one 2024 line (noted with a c).

As I’ve said before, Jackson Holliday might actually be underrated at this point. I got a lot of complaints about the “bearish” .255/.341/.381 projection for him coming into the season, but ZiPS (and I) shared the belief that people were coming too quickly on him. He’s still extremely likely to be a fantastic player, but considering he’s a 20-year-old who blasted through four levels of the minors, it’s not the weirdest thing ever that he’d see a consolidation season. That .336/.332 OBP/SLG isn’t really that far behind his projection, especially considering ZiPS expected the major league offensive environment to be better than it has been this season.

Coby Mayo has had the better season but still wouldn’t come close to passing Holliday if I rerolled the full top prospects right now. James Wood actually has surpassed Holliday, though that will only last until he exceeds the rookie maximum and sheds his prospect status; he was legitimately excellent in the minors this year. The sheen has come off both Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter a little bit, while Jackson Chourio and Masyn Winn have performed about as advertised. As movers go, Adael Amador and Pete Crow-Armstrong look like the two who will take the biggest hit of this group before next year’s rankings (if PCA hasn’t graduated). There hasn’t been as much ink about Emmanuel Rodriguez as I would have expected this year, even before he injured his thumb last month. The Texas League, unlike the Triple-A leagues, is a pretty low offensive environment, with a league OPS of just .705, so his actual 1.100 OPS is pretty impressive.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga have both performed as well as ZiPS expected. While that’s hardly going out on a limb for Yamamoto, whom everyone liked, ZiPS was in on Imanaga very early. Paul Skenes, of course, has been fabulous, even more so than his top-notch translations from April and May. I’d only describe two of the pitchers on this list as unmitigated disappointments so far in 2024, at least from a projections standpoint: Both Ricky Tiedemann and Dylan Lesko will take pretty big hits in the next rankings. Andrew Painter will slide quite a bit as well, but it would be pretty churlish to call a pitcher a disappointment for being injured.

Among this tranche of prospects, Brooks Lee is having arguably the most impressive 2024, and he’s continued to hit since his call-up a couple of weeks ago. Between Lee and the Twins’ taking Kaelen Culpepper with their first-round pick on Sunday, Edouard Julien might get lost in the shuffle quickly in Minnesota; if I were a GM of a team in need of a second baseman, I’d give the Twins call to see if he can rule again on my club. Anyway, I actually expected ZiPS to come around quicker on Dylan Crews, but he’s not really torching minor league pitching as I thought he would. Davis Schneider has long been a ZiPS favorite, but he’s cooled off since a hot run right after he earned more playing time through the process of elimination in Toronto’s struggling lineup.

Jett Williams inevitably will drop considerably after a wrist injury ruined his 2024 season, and Kevin Alcantára was one of the big ZiPS droppers in terms of future WAR. While Samuel Basallo is not matching his breakout 2023 season, he’s still a 19-year-old catcher, so he won’t sag in the rankings too far.

Looking at this group’s long-term projections, it’s almost shocking how little movement there’s been in the long-term projections. Of these 21 pitchers, only three have had their five-year projected WAR move by more than two WAR. The first is Drew Thorpe, who was solid for Birmingham, and his poor K/BB ratios in the majors so far probably aren’t representative of his abilities. The other is a much less heralded prospect, Thomas Harrington of the Pirates, a rather Doug Fister-y prospect (is that a legal adjective), who relies on control and changeups. The high minors can be cruel for this type of pitcher, but he’s survived at least one of the jumps, to Double-A, which improves his long-term outlook. On the flip side, Mick Abel’s command has continued to deteriorate, with both a seven-walk and a six-walk outing in the last month. It would be a shock if he didn’t fall completely off the ZiPS Top 100 for 2025.

It hasn’t shown yet in the majors, but Kyle Manzardo’s minor league performance this year before his call-up wiped out the real “meh” feeling that ZiPS had about his 2023. Post-suspension Noelvi Marte has been pretty lousy, though we have enough data from players after drug suspensions to dismiss any histrionics that he’s struggled because of the lack of performance enhancement. Last year was largely the season that ZiPS came around on Colson Montgomery after being later than practically everyone/everything else, and the result has been a little how I feel after eating a hot dog from a gas station. Joey Ortiz is the big winner in this group, contending for the NL Rookie of the Year award, and Kyle Teel ought to see a bump in next year’s prospect rankings as well. Like Basallo, Ethan Salas’ bat has backslid a bit, but it’s not worth obsessing over how a teenage catching prospect is hitting. Andy Pages hasn’t matched his minor league start this year, but he’s been at least respectable.

Heston Kjerstad just missed the overall ZiPS gainers list, yet given Baltimore’s crowded offense, he’s still had trouble getting a full serving of plate appearances in the majors. If the O’s land Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, Kjerstad has to be one of the names likely to be included, especially for the Tigers considering they are much more motivated to add major league-ready talent than the hopeless Sox. ZiPS was as big fan of Michael Busch, one of those low-ceiling, high-floor hitters without any real positional value, and he’s performed about as well for the Cubs as could have reasonably been expected.

ZiPS was hoping for more power from Matt Shaw, and he’ll probably drop from the top 100 unless his trajectory changes again. But he won’t drop as far as Luisangel Acuña, who has only a 73 wRC+ in Triple-A, though the Mets don’t actually seem disappointed with his performance. Even as offense is up across Triple-A, Angel Martínez was having a dynamite season before he was called up; you shouldn’t dismiss a 147 wRC+ at Triple-A without a pretty compelling reason. He’s also continued to hit in the majors, and I now feel kinda guilty that I didn’t give ZiPS some new RAM to reward it for being so high on him coming into the season.