Archive for 2016 Trade Deadline

Scouting Aged Lefty Ariel Miranda, Mariners’ Return for Miley

Ariel Miranda sounds like one of those weird Disney Princess mashups that were fashionable clickbait last year — Click to see the Disney Princesses re-imagined as Sex and the City characters! Click to see the Disney Princesses re-imagined as members of the 2003 Philadelphia Eagles Secondary! Click to see the Disney Princesses re-imagined as America’s most infamous serial killers! — but he is an actual baseball pitcher who has come on of late and become a fairly interesting prospect of advanced age.

Miranda, a 6-foot-2 Cuban lefty, signed in May of 2015 after he defected and established residency in Haiti. He pitched across three levels during his first full season, finishing his initial domestic campaign with a solid eight-start run with Double-A Bowie. Miranda has passed 2016 in Triple-A (except for a two-inning shot of espresso with the Orioles early in July) and, while a 3.93 ERA from a 27-year-old isn’t exactly sexy, he’s flashed viable big-league stuff. His fastball will touch 95 mph on occasion and sits 90-93. Miranda has a quick, athletic arm and incorporates his lower half into a picturesque delivery that he doesn’t always finish. When he’s not driving the ball down, he lives either up in the zone or out of it altogether, something of which major-league hitters will take full advantage, but he’s capable of missing bats in the zone with his fastball. Miranda has been able to throw plenty of strikes this season, just not always where he wants to, and his control is ahead of his command.

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Blue Jays Give Some Pitchers to Get Some Pitchers

Here’s some things that happened. The Blue Jays got a swingman in return for a swingman:

And then minutes later, they gave up a Chavez to get another Chavez:

The “other” Chavez, in this instance, being Scott Feldman, an early-30’s swingman himself. Both are free agents at the end of the year. It doesn’t make total sense, and it’s not the most interesting thing that happened at the trade deadline, but bear with me.

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The Weirdest Trade of the Day (Year?)

The trade deadline always brings us surprises, but man, this one takes the cake for out-of-nowhere deal that no one could have seen coming.

If you had Hector Santiago for Ricky Nolasco in your trade predictions post, you are either Billy Eppler or Rob Antony, or a crazy person.

So we have two sellers swapping big league starting pitchers at a time when most buyers looking for pitching help can’t find big league starting pitchers to trade for. That’s pretty weird!

On the other hand, I can kind of squint and see this. The Twins get a Twins-like pitcher, a guy who has spent his career beating FIP by inducing a million infield flies, and looks like a perfectly useful mid-rotation starter. The Angels get a guy who controls the strike zone a bit better but has underperformed his FIP forever, making him much worse than his peripherals suggest, and is closer to a replacement level arm. In exchange for downgrading their rotation, the Angels get a lottery ticket pitching prospect in Alex Meyer, who is big and throws hard but can’t command the zone.

The Angels will take on a few million bucks in payroll next year, when Nolasco is due $12 million while Santiago will make less than that in his final arbitration season, but financially, there isn’t a huge difference here. So the Angels just make themselves a bit worse while getting a different innings sponge and admitting that they’re looking long-term.

Why the Twins themselves are the ones acquiring Santiago, I’m not entirely sure. Perhaps they’re going to trade Ervin Santana and wanted to have someone around to eat innings, and thought that Meyer wasn’t too high a price to pay for some credible big league pitching over the next year. If he keeps pitching well, he can probably be flipped for an equally decent prospect this winter or next deadline.

So it’s not like this trade is a disaster or anything. It’s just pretty weird to see a 40-64 team trading for a pitcher with some present value by shipping a prospect to a 47-58 team at the deadline.


Scouting Oakland’s Return for Rich Hill, Josh Reddick

The Athletics are moving two rentals in exchange for three very interesting pitching prospects, all of whom have bullpen-worthy stuff at worst — and mid-rotation upside at best.

The headliner of the deal, at least as far as upside is concerned, is RHP Grant Holmes. Holmes, who was committed to Florida, was the 22nd-overall pick in 2014 and signed for $2.5 million out of Conway High School in South Carolina. He touched 100 in high school and was one of the draft’s more advanced prep arms with a more mature body and better strike-throwing ability than many of his hard-throwing peers. After signing, he descended upon the AZL, which was clearly already beneath him at the time, and dominated before moving to the Pioneer League for his last few starts of the season.

In 2015, Holmes’ control went backwards and he walked 54 hitters in 103.1 innings for Low-A Great Lakes. Walks have remained an issue this season (43 free passes in 105 innings). Holmes is an above-average athlete and his delivery isn’t overtly violent or difficult to repeat, but his arm action is long and his release point has been inconsistent. Eventually, I think Holmes will throw enough strikes to start though two straight years of serious control issues are officially concerning.

The stuff is great. Holmes was 92-94 mph and touching 95 for me in April and has generally been in that range all year. His fastball moves, a product of his arm slot, and can be unhittable when he locates it. Holmes’ primary offspeed weapon is his curveball which, when he breaks off a good one, looks like a slider’s caricature. It has two-plane, slider shape and slider velociy (about 79-82) but has the vertical depth of a curveball. It flashes plus but is also inconsistent and can tilt in without much bite.

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Indians Add Guyer, Improve Ability to Hit & Get Hit By Lefties

The Indians, jilted in their effort to improve their offense behind the plate, went back to the trade trough for a smaller deal. They’ve added 30-year-old right-handed Brandon Guyer to their outfield, at the cost of two lower-level prospects in outfielder Nathan Lukes and right-hander Jhonleider Salinas, as Jordan Bastian is reporting.

Though Guyer is no Lucroy, he does fit a need on the Indians team — he can hit lefties well. So far, he’s been 42% better than league average against lefties. The Indians can skew lefty-heavy and have been 6% better than league average against righties so far this year, and 4% worse than average against lefties.

In the outfield, Tyler Naquin and Lonnie Chisenhall are lefties hitting the ball well, and though Naquin is starting against pitchers of both hands, Chisenhall has traditionally been platooned. Since right-hander Rajai Davis has been a bit better than a strict platoon player — he’s been league average against righties the last two years, at least, and provides base running and defensive value in the corner outfield — he might remain a full-time starter until Michael Brantley comes back. The team could easily platoon Chisenhall with Guyer.

Jose Ramirez is increasingly needed at third base with Juan Uribe’s poor play at the plate, so he’s not in the outfield mix post-Guyer, but there’s one more place the newcomer could help. Switch-hitting designated hitter Carlos Santana has really been struggling against lefties this year (64 wRC+) despite being fine against them for his career (128 wRC+).

Between right field and designated hitter, Guyer can at least step into the box against lefties and improve that poor team split against southpaws.

Stepping into the box is the key word here — nobody has been hit more by lefty pitchers in the last three years than Guyer. That’s how he’s turned a middling walk rate into a plus on-base percentage, and by all accounts, it’s a skill. Getting hit by pitches has the same year-to-year correlation (.641) as weighted on base average, and a better one than on-base percentage.

Guyer’s not a great defender, but he can help in most facets of the game, and will be a strong asset for the team when they’re facing a left-hander. Given that they gave up two prospects that weren’t on anyone’s top 100 lists and are far away from the majors, this trade made too much sense for the American League Central leaders to pass up.


Dodgers Trade for American League’s Best Starter*

Presumably, you’re aware that the Dodgers have been playing well, but, presumably, you’re aware that the Dodgers have been playing well without Clayton Kershaw. In a sense, that’s a good thing — it demonstrates that they’re strong even without their most valuable player. But then, nobody wants to be without Kershaw, and he doesn’t have a timetable to return from his back injury. He might not come back this year at all. The Dodgers have been plowing forward without their ace, and their ace is a big part of the equation.

The rumors were predictable. Big-budget operation, deep farm, rotation hole. The Dodgers got linked to Chris Archer, and the Dodgers got linked to Chris Sale. Observers wanted to see the Dodgers make a splash, because splashes are sexy, and restraint can be boring. In what’s at least their first trade Monday, the Dodgers didn’t make said splash. They didn’t give it up for a No. 1. Except, also, they did, in their own way. The Dodgers have acquired Rich Hill, and Hill has been statistically the best starter in his league.

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Scouting Charlie Tilson, New White Sox Outfield Prospect

In exchange for LHP Zach Duke, the White Sox received fourth-outfield prospect Charlie Tilson from St. Louis. Tilson is a plus-plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills but doesn’t project as a regular because of his complete lack of power.

A Chicago-area high schooler, Tilson blew up a bit at the Area Code Games as a rising senior when he stole seven bases in three days of play. The Cardinals selected him in the second round of the 2011 draft and gave him $1.275 million to turn pro instead of heading to Illinois. He missed all of 2012 while recovering from surgery to repair a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, began 2013 in full-season ball and has made a ton of contact ever since. He was hitting .282/.345/.407 with Triple-A Memphis before the trade.

Tilson has just average bat speed, no leverage in his swing and very rarely extends enough to really punish the baseball, resulting in 30-grade game power. He can play all three outfield positions, though his arm is fringe average and fits best in center and left. His ability to play center field while making a lot of contact is probably enough to win him a major-league roster spot, but unless his defense in center greatly outpaces present projections, he only profiles as a bench outfielder or below-average regular.

Despite a relatively humble collection of tools, Tilson ranked 81st on Chris Mitchell’s updated KATOH rankings.

Charlie Tilson, Tool Profile
Tool Present Future
Hit 45 55
Raw Power 30 30
Game Power 30 30
Run 70 70
Field 50 55
Throw 45 45
FV 40

Jay Bruce Makes the Mets More Mets

Going into this trade deadline season, you might have thought that the Mets could use a fifth starter, or a center fielder with good glove and bat combo, or a third baseman, but instead they went and got another corner outfielder when they traded 22-year-old infielder Dilson Herrera and another minor leaguer for the Reds’ Jay Bruce.

Since the Mets have an affordable $13m option on Bruce next season, it may be a look ahead in case Yoenis Cespedes opts out of his contract. But in the meantime, Bruce makes for an uneasy fit on this roster. Sort of. Because he’s also perfect for the team, in that he’s just like the rest of the team. He makes them more like themselves.

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Dodgers Land Reddick, Hill for Trio of Pitching Prospects

We all saw the Jay Bruce trade coming. Seen that one coming for years. This one was a bit more unexpected:

Although Dave Cameron predicted the Dodgers would land Reddick and Hill last week, there was a case to be made for keeping Reddick, and the A’s were reportedly discussing an extension with Hill up until this morning. Now, they’re both Dodgers.

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Scouting New Pirates Prospect Taylor Hearn

Taylor Hearn has been drafted four times, first selected by the Pirates in the 22nd round of the 2012 draft out of Royse City High School in Texas. After two years at JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto, Hearn transferred to Oklahoma Baptist for his junior season, struck out 71 hitters in 64.1 innings, and was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft by Washington.

Hearn was starting for the Nationals’ GCL affiliate before moving to the bullpen upon his promotion to Hagerstown. Despite pitching exclusively in relief for the past month, he has remained stretched out, throwing multiple innings in each appearance, and the Pirates have stated that they hope to develop him as a starter. He has the body and delivery for it.

A lithe and projectable 6-foot-5, Hearn has some issues repeating what is a loose and athletic delivery. The arm is quick and Hearn extends well, allowing his mid-to-upper 90s velocity to play up. Hearn sits 93-96 mph but has been up to 99 in short stints and his fastball features good downhill plane. His slider is average and Hearn has very little command of it, but it has a chance to tick up a half grade or so with reps. His changeup is also promising and projectable, mostly because of how quick and athletic the arm is, and I do think Pittsburgh is right to try to develop Hearn as a rotation arm. The body, delivery and repertoire to start are all either here already or reasonably foreseeable, though moving Hearn along as a starter will take longer than if Washington fast tracked him as a ‘pen arm.

Hearn has had some injury issues throughout his career. He suffered from a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures. There’s lots of risk involved here, because of Hearn’s injury history and because he throws a baseball very hard for a living, but it’s a intriguing flier for Pittsburgh.

Taylor Hearn, Tool Profile
Tool Present Future
Fastball 70 80
Slider 50 55
Changeup 30 50
Control 40 45
FV 40