The College World Series begins this weekend, with two games on both Saturday and Sunday. The eight participating teams include Oregon State, Texas A&M, Cal State Fullerton, Louisville, Florida State, TCU, LSU and Florida. A total of 57 players from these schools were drafted by Major League teams this week, including four who went in the first round.

The table below includes vital information about the players drafted who will be competing in this year’s College World Series, including Eric Longenhagen’s top-100 rank and FV grades (click through for individual tool grades and scouting reports) and my KATOH projections.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that I’ve projected all of the college players taken (and not taken), I thought it would be fun to see what would have happened if a team picked straight from the KATOH rankings. In practice, this would be a terrible strategy, as KATOH would be picking from a talent pool less than half the size of everyone else’s. Since I only have projections for guys who played regularly in Division 1 this year, a lot of talent would not even be considered. All high-school, junior-college, Division II, and Division III players — plus Division I players who were injured or benched — would not be eligible.

It also doesn’t account for the fact that many of KATOH’s top guys were near certain to fall to the middle or late rounds. Or that some had likely informed teams they were going back to school next year. A competent front office would have drafted accordingly, rather than blindly picking names off of a list. In an effort to compensate for these disadvantages, I gave KATOH the No. 1 pick in the draft and the top pick in the two supplemental rounds, as well. I excluded registered sex offender Luke Heimlich from KATOH’s draft board, as all 30 MLB teams did the same with their own boards.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. On Wednesday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. Yesterday, I did the same for day three. Today, let’s take a look at what my math says about the players who were eligible to be drafted but weren’t selected.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-five hitters and top-five pitchers who weren’t drafted. Below that, you’ll find by a table with projections for all undrafted players who project for at least 0.4 WAR. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Cody Anderson, LHP, Washington State, 0.9 WAR

A 6-foot-6 lefty from Washington State, Anderson held his own in the Pac-12 this spring. He didn’t strike many guys out, but still managed to put up a 3.40 ERA.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Yesterday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. Let’s take a look at what my math says about the players taken on the third and final day of the draft.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-five hitters and top-five pitchers selected in rounds 11-40. Below that, you’ll find by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Darren McCaughan, RHP, Seattle, 2.3 WAR

McCaughan allowed just 20 walks across 120 innings with Long Beach State this season, finishing up with a sparkling 2.50 ERA. He doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like many of the pitchers drafted before him but has three years of strong performance in the Big West to his name.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Between then and now, an additional 240 players have been selected. Eric Longenhagen considered some notable selections this morning from both the American and National leagues. Let’s take a look at what my math says about some of those players.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-eight hitters and top-eight pitchers selected in rounds 3-10. Below that, you’ll find by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Brian Howard, RHP, Oakland, 2.5 WAR

A senior out of TCU, nothing about Howard’s 2017 performance jumps off the page. He’s been quietly effective over his college career, however, allowing just 10 homers in over 250 innings and posting a 3.52 ERA. KATOH penalizes him for already having turned 22, but loves his 6-foot-9 build. Just a tall pitcher with a strong body of work in a good conference.

Read the rest of this entry »

See also: National League.

Below are some notable selections from the draft’s second day. I chatted live for the first three hours of Day 2 here. If you missed any Day 1 analysis, the draft live stream is located here and analysis of the first day is available here for the American League and here for the National League. My top 100 with tool grades, scouting reports, etc., is here.

The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate the round in which the relevant prospect was drafted.

Baltimore Orioles

Michael Baumann (3), a right-handed pitcher from Jacksonville, was just off my draft top 100. He’s got a strong build, above-average fastball, potential above-average slider, and had enough of a curveball and changeup to project as a starter on basis of repertoire depth.

There are concerns about the length of his arm action and the way it limits his command. CF Lamar Sparks (5) from Seven Lakes HS (TX) has a projectable frame, above-average bat speed, and runs well enough to stay in center field for a while. He’s the athletic, projectable sort of athlete on which Baltimore’s system is currently short. He’ll have to overcome his swing’s length.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below are some notable selections from the draft’s second day. I chatted live for the first three hours of Day 2 here. If you missed any Day 1 analysis, the draft live stream is located here and analysis of the first day is available here for the American League and here for the National League. My top 100 with tool grades, scouting reports, etc., is here.

The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate the round in which the relevant prospect was drafted.

Arizona Diamondbacks

High school pitchers Matt Tabor (3) and Harrison Francis (4) both have promising physical projection, and Tabor’s velocity was already starting to climb this spring.

Read the rest of this entry »

Prior to covering professional baseball, I covered household expenses and built a meager savings by reporting on Clemson athletics for the Charleston (S.C.) Post and Courier. Clemson has typically been a fixture in the NCAA Tournament and in early June of 2010 I covered a bizarre scene at the regional in Auburn, Alabama.

One of Clemson’s star players was Kyle Parker, who was also the starting quarterback for the school’s football team. While playing quarterback at Clemson was the higher-profile amateur position, he was expected to choose baseball professionally, as he’d shot up draft boards that spring and was regarded as a potential first-round pick. On the opening night of the draft, Parker found himself also playing an NCAA Tournament regional elimination game against Auburn in Auburn.

Parker was the starting right fielder for Clemson, and Auburn had something of a party deck just beyond and above the right-field wall, where a rowdy collection of loyal Auburn partisans gathered. As a sort of preemptive measure, Parker approached the section of fans before the game and suggested they heckle him in any manner they chose, but he made one request: he ask they avoid one subject matter in their taunts and that was anything related to the draft.

Parker envisioned a scenario in which the fans out there distracted him while his team was on the field. “Hey, Kyle, you just went fifth overall!” “Hey, Kyle you’re really sliding!” Imagine the NFL draft taking place the night of the national title game. This was nearly the baseball equivalent.

In the middle of the seventh inning, a cheer went up during a rather innocuous, low-energy point in the game. It was audible throughout Plainsman Park. It had been produced by the Parker family, seated in the grandstands on the first-base side. The yelps indicated that Parker had been selected 26th overall by the Rockies, who at the time had a thing for college quarterbacks (See: Helton, Todd and Smith, Seth.) Earlier in the game, Parker had smashed a three-run homer, so maybe the whole life-changing-moment, life-changing-money thing hadn’t been so much of a distraction. Or maybe Parker was smart to make a personal appeal to the Auburn’s rowdiest contingent of fans. A similar situation played out this past Monday night, as University of Florida Friday night starter Alex Faedo was selected 18th overall by the Tigers while his Gators were in the midst of an NCAA Tournament game.

I will hardly be the first or last person to question the awkward timing of the amateur baseball draft. Baseball faces a number of challenges related to the draft given that it has its own feeder system (the minor leagues) to consider, while the NFL and NBA largely use colleges to develop much of their future talent. Major League Baseball probably has little interest in pushing back the draft and losing weeks of potential development time with minor-league seasons underway and short-season ball on the verge of beginning. College baseball, for its part, has shown little interest in changing its schedule. While the sport might benefit from holding its postseason when school is still in session and students are on campus, cool early-spring weather already puts Northern schools at a disadvantage.

While the timing of the draft isn’t the most pressing issue facing college or professional baseball, it is the most obvious portal through which to view the imperfect relationship between MLB and college.

Read the rest of this entry »

As you’re probably aware, the first two rounds of Major League Baseball’s amateur draft took place last night. With the first 75 picks off the board, let’s take a look at what my KATOH projection system has to say about the Division 1 college players who have been selected thus far. I’ll be back with projections for the remaining players once we know where they are going.

Scouting the stat line is always dangerous, and it’s perhaps even more dangerous than usual at the college level, where the samples are small, the players are raw, and the quality of opposing pitching runs the gamut. Nonetheless, performance is often an overlooked component of prospect evaluation, and the players who outperform expectations in college often go on to do the same as professionals. A sortable table is included towards the end of this post.

4. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Tampa

KATOH Forecast: 8.0 WAR (0.3 as a hitter)

McKay was KATOH’s top draft-eligible player, largely due to his high strikeout totals. He also did a tremendous job of limiting hard contact, resulting in a 2.34 ERA this year. McKay was excellent in his freshman and sophomore campaigns, too, giving him a long track record of success. As a first baseman, McKay projects for just 0.3 WAR, which would make him one of the worst players drafted last night. However, since he’s primarily focused on pitching to date, I suppose one could argue he has more development left than your typical 21-year-old hitter with his numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Also see: National League.

Below are brief summaries of each American League team’s draft class following the end of the event’s first day. The numbers in parentheses beside each name indicate where the prospect was ranked on my top-100 list, which is also where players’ scouting reports can be found. Players who were not on my top 100 and were drafted yesterday have brief reports in this post.

Baltimore Orioles

Round 1, Pick 21 — D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA) (10)
Round 2, Pick 60 — Adam Hall, SS, A.B. Lucas Seconday (ON, Canada) (NR)
Hall runs well enough to play up the middle but scouts question his athleticism, physicality, and swing. He’s an interesting developmental project.
Comp B, Pick 74 — Zac Lowther, LHP, Xavier Univ. (89)

Thoughts
The first Hall was great value and, I think, immediately became the organization’s best prospect; the second seemed a bit of a reach.

Read the rest of this entry »