Even at this point in the season, just past the halfway mark and heading into the All-Star break, few teams want to admit that they’re sellers. But with a league-worst 29-57 record, the Astros are firmly sellers in this market. Of course, a team that has the worst record by 5.5 games probably doesn’t have a deep pool of talent from which to deal. Yet the Astros do have six offensive players with 1 WAR or greater, and a handful of pitchers who are either performing well, or who are talented but faltering. That could create a somewhat favorable situation come deadline time, even if it means assuring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft.

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Why do so many Major League Baseball players come from the Dominican Republic (DR)? Why does economically strong, population-rich Japan produce so few MLB players? Why does baseball-loving Colombia have so few MLB alums (nine total)? Well, as it turns out, the answers are not so easy to find.

My previous two articles — one on East Asian talent, th’other on the relationship between height and OBP — have generated a lot of good discussion about what determines where a baseball player comes from.

In the first piece, I proposed that teams should invest in Chinese (and Indian) baseball academies to take advantage of the exceedingly large pool of athletes in those areas. However, several commentors suggested that baseball culture, not population size, determines the talent pool.

I found this a most intriguing analysis, so I went back to the ol’ opening day roster/injury list of foreign born players.

This is how it breaks out:

It does not require an electron micrometer to see the DR and Venezuela give the MLB lots o’ players. These two nations composed 17.5% of opening day rosters, but have a combined population smaller than Korea or Columbia individually.

So what does determine MLB talent sources? Well, it certainly does not appear to be population:

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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Continuing our Trade Targets series, here are five middle infielders who could be available at (or before) the deadline.

PLAYER: Jose Reyes
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Giants, Reds, Brewers
CONTRACT STATUS: $11 million, free agent after the season
PROJECTED WAR: 3.3

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A Lame Beggar
I am unable, yonder beggar cries,
To stand, or move; If he say true, he lies.
   -John Donne

One of the MLB’s most backward leagues, the National League Central, appears primed for a face lift. The weakest NL league is within reach of establishing itself as dominator and shaking its beggar reputation.

The Houston Astros, presently undergoing an ownership change, have become bedfellows with rumors about the Rays de facto general manager Andrew Friedman and the Rockets’ shrewd GM Daryl Morey.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have already undergone one faux-firing this season (last week, an internet rumor spread like whipped butter on the toast that is Twitter, proclaiming the Cubs had fired GM Jim Hendry) and the team is now fighting the odds to have a winning season. The rampant speculation with the Cubs has formed the central narrative that Hendry faces a win-or-be-gone season, and this year’s sub-.500 start has alerted the gravediggers.

What could a regime change in Houston and Chicago mean for the NL Central, a division burdened with excess teams and limited success? Possibly a lot.
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If you follow the business side of baseball or wear a 10-gallon cowboy hat all day, you may well know the Houston Astros’s owner, Drayton McLane Jr., is preparing to sell the franchise. Reports have diverged on what the final selling cost might be — anywhere from a paltry $650 million to a respectable $680 million.

Now that McLane begins to close the baseball chapter of his life, my knowledge of the wealthy elite informs me he will now spend the remainder of his days getting in shape whilst swimming laps in his massive vault of gold coins. While he readies his swimming top hat and alligator-skin booties, let’s take this time to reflect on McLane’s investment.
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In the spring of 2009, the Tampa Bay Rays had to make a decision between two out-of-option starters: Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann. The Rays decided on Niemann and shipped Hammel off to the Colorado Rockies. In hindsight, Hammel has become the better pitcher, but who knows if he has the same success in the American League East. In return for him, Tampa Bay received 21-year-old right-handed pitcher Aneury Rodriguez.

Pitching at the Advanced-A level, Rodriguez posted a 3.74 ERA/3.38 FIP in 2008. Upon his arrival to the organization, the Rays promoted him to Double-A. He struggled in the early parts of the 2009 season, but finished strong enough to earn a promotion despite his 4.69 FIP. As a swingman for the Triple-A Durham Bulls (17 starts, 10 relief appearance) in 2010, he posted a solid 3.80 ERA/4.04 FIP in 113 innings.

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After being treated like a hot potato by the Cardinals, Athletics, Phillies, and Blue Jays, Brett Wallace has finally found a home in Houston. He reached the majors last year and now sits upon the first base throne vacated by Lance Berkman at last year’s trade deadline. Through the first month of 2011, Wallace has a .383/.448/.543 triple-slash line that would make even the Puma proud. Wallace clearly isn’t this good — his line is heavily supported by a .466 BABIP — but that doesn’t mean we should just ignore it. Instead, let’s learn from the small sample and see what it can tell us about his performance moving forward.

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The Houston Astros’ 2011 season figures to go about as well as NASA’s recent Glory satellite launch — it’s going to end with disappointment and a thud. CAIRO, Oliver and PECOTA all project the ‘Stros for fewer than 70 wins, and considering that Marc Hulet dubbed Houston’s farm system second-worst in the game, it could be years before Houston has the talent to compete once again. The Astros’ plight got even bleaker today, as it was announced that one of the club’s precious few long-term talents, Jason Castro, will likely miss the entire year with a torn right ACL.

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While the top of the National League Central figures to be competitive in 2011, the Houston Astros will be fighting their own battle this season: to stay out of the basement. The Astros might not be a complete doormat this year, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where they compete for a division title. That being said, Houston has a few position players to watch and a pitching staff that might surprise in 2011.

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