A plethora of under-the-radar transactions take place every offseason. One you might have missed happened last week when Stephen Fife signed with the Chicago Cubs. The 29-year-old right-hander, fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, was inked to a minor-league deal that includes a spring training invite to big-league camp.

If you’re not a Dodgers diehard, you probably aren’t aware that Fife was one of six Los Angeles pitchers to start 10-or-more games for the 2013 NL West champions. He finished that year 4-4 with a 3.86 ERA, but was unceremoniously left off the postseason roster. Come playoff time, he was told he wasn’t welcome in the dugout, although he could come to the games and watch from the stands.

Originally in the Red Sox organization, Fife came to LA as part of a three-team trade in July 2011. According to Fife, he turned a corner the following season with the help of Josh Bard. The newly-named Dodgers bullpen coach was one of the club’s catchers that season, and he told Fife that adjustments were in order. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s easy to say now that the Reds should have traded some players sooner. It’s been clear for a long time they’re headed for a rebuild, yet they hung on to Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier, and both of them lost value. Chapman is currently unmovable, and Frazier just drew an underwhelming return. Of course, the Reds couldn’t have predicted precisely what would happen, but they should have predicted neither Chapman nor Frazier would lift his stock higher than it was.

It’s also easy to say now that the Brewers should have traded Jonathan Lucroy sooner. This was a bit less obvious: In 2014, the Brewers went into September tied for the division lead. You can’t blame them for trying again in 2015, and a couple years back, Lucroy might’ve been the best catcher in baseball. He doesn’t look like the best catcher in baseball anymore. And the Brewers and Reds are basically in the same position.

The Reds traded Frazier because they’re far off, and Frazier’s almost 30, with two more years of team control. He’s more valuable to somebody else. Now the Brewers are thinking about trading Lucroy, because they’re far off, and Lucroy’s almost 30, with two more years of team control. He’d also be more valuable to somebody else. Unfortunately, this gets awfully complicated. Because of Lucroy’s position, health and performance, his value is down, but volatile. Yet the Brewers might be feeling a sense of urgency.

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Despite losing out on Zack Greinke, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to have one of the best teams in major league baseball. While Jeff Sullivan made a reasonable case recently for the Chicago Cubs as the best team in baseball currently, the Dodgers are right there with them, even without the benefit of a major move. But now that the Hisashi Iwakuma deal has fallen apart and led Iwakuma to reunite with the Seattle Mariners, the Dodgers need pitching. They were rumored to be involved with the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller and rumors still surround the pursuit of Jose Fernandez and pitchers in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. It’s possible, however, that it’s Matt Harvey who could best solve the Dodgers’ problems.

Despite likely losing Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy to free agency, the New York Mets also have a very good team returning next year. By our Depth Charts projections, the Mets have the fifth-best team in baseball, less than a win behind division-rival Washington Nationals. The club has a really good shot at repeating as division winners, with a rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard leading the way, and a returning Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon as insurance. The team has a solid infield, shrewdly picking up Neil Walker, and they should be able to cobble something semi-productive out of Asdrubal Cabrera and their returning middle infielders at shortstop. The team does have a bit of a hole in center field, and the offense, without Cespedes or Cespedes, doesn’t look all that great. The Mets might still have some financial concerns going into next season. It’s possible, though, that the young and cheap and talented Joc Pederson could solve the Mets’ problems.

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What happens when a team hires a new general manager or president of baseball operations? In most cases, a lot more than meets the eye. Behind the scenes, a number of structural changes take place. A smattering of them are less subtle in nature, and thus deemed newsworthy. The majority of changes go virtually unnoticed, sometimes because they’re known only within the inner workings of the organization.

In hopes of better understanding the dynamic, I queried multiple front office executives, all of whom requested anonymity. This article is comprised of their feedback, and is presented in blocks of interwoven quotes. With continuity in mind, the executive being quoted will often change from one paragraph to the next.

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“One thing we’ve seen over the years is a decrease in the number of longtime GMs. Twenty or thirty years ago a GM came on board and could count on staying in place for several years. That model no longer exists. There’s more turnover now, so any new group has to hit the ground running. Most groups try to shorten the learning curve by hiring people they know and trust to implement their philosophy. They try to put people in place to make a positive impact as quickly as possible.

“When J.P. Ricciardi became the GM in Toronto, there was a massive overhaul of the scouting staff. This past year saw the Dodgers make drastic changes in both international scouting and player development. Why were those changes made? I can’t speak for either group directly, but from a management perspective you need people you can trust to implement and execute your philosophy, whatever it might be. Read the rest of this entry »

The other day, I had the opportunity to introduce some of you to Mychal Givens. Based on the response, it was actually a chance to introduce most of you to Mychal Givens, who the Orioles love as a potential major contributor to the bullpen. Givens pitched well, but because he pitched later in the season for a go-nowhere ballclub, he didn’t draw himself a lot of attention, which is why many found the Givens post so surprising. We all feel like we have a pretty good understanding of the game, and of the players involved. It’s unusual to be caught off guard.

That wasn’t a one-off, though. Not that this was intended to be a series, but the Mariners happen to have their own comp. If you love what Givens did in a pretty small sample, you’ll love what the other guy did in an even smaller sample. Like Givens, the mystery pitcher took a big step forward in the minors. Like Givens, he came to the majors and struck a bunch of people out. Like Givens, in the majors, he issued precious few walks. Like Givens, we have a righty with a fastball and a breaking ball; unlike Givens, the mystery pitcher can dial it up even more. Based on track record, the Mariners would currently appear to have a mediocre bullpen. But they might be expecting some major assistance from Tony Zych.

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Wednesday, the Angels quietly picked up Daniel Nava. They did so quietly because there would be no way to do so loudly, and after it was announced, some people started talking seriously about a potential platoon between Nava and Craig Gentry. I don’t know if that’ll happen — I don’t think that’s going to happen — but the mere possibility suggests the Angels aren’t thrilled with the options. It’s a curious thing to consider at the same time as the Orioles agreeing to sign Hyun-soo Kim for two years and $7 million. Kim will be coming from the KBO, so there are the usual questions, but he turns just 28 in a month, and this is middle-reliever money.

For reference, Chad Qualls signed for two years and $6 million. Oliver Perez signed for two years and $7 million. Jonathan Broxton signed for two years and $7.5 million and a no-trade clause. Perfectly useful relievers, all of them, but Kim is lined up to be a starting outfielder, and he’s right around peak age. Without even knowing anything about Kim, the potential value is obvious.

When I first started analyzing Kim, I thought about Nori Aoki. Some people would call that a lazy comp, but I do think it’s within reason. Also, I’ve just had Aoki on my mind lately, so I’m biased. As I’ve thought about this more, though, I’ve arrived at something else. What could Kim turn into in Baltimore? A very familiar-looking player. The Orioles know this skillset.

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We had a pretty good idea of who Trevor Cahill was: owner of a career 4.13/4.27 ERA/FIP, back-end starter, ground ball pitcher. He lost his rotation spot while pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2014. During 2015, he was released by the Braves after a failed transition to the bullpen, and, after opting-out of a minor league contract with the Dodgers, there was the possibility that this might be the end of any meaningful career for him. Still only 27 years old, he wouldn’t have been the first fringy starter to flame out of the league.

In late August, however, he signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, and two weeks later they called him up to the major league bullpen. Something pretty drastic had happened over the course of his time in the bullpens of the three teams he was employed by during 2015, and it all seemed to culminate in his 17 September and October innings for Chicago: he posted a stellar 27% K-BB% during that stretch, returning successfully to his ground ball ways (61.8%) and a 2.12/3.13 ERA/FIP.

Those 17 innings were, of course, a tiny sample size. But in those innings, as well as his successful work during the playoffs, we glimpsed who the new Cahill might be, and it was the pitcher the Cubs think they just signed to a low-risk, one-year, $4.25 million deal last week.

First, we saw a big velocity jump from Cahill in 2015. He almost exclusively throws a sinker as his main fastball, and he increased its velocity in 2015 by about two and a half mph from its highest point in 2014. Take a velocity look at a chart for his sinker for the months of 2014 and 2015, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

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Many baseball things happened yesterday. One of them was that Mike Napoli, late of the Angels, Rangers, Red Sox, and, hey, Rangers again, signed a one year, $7 million deal with the Cleveland Indians. Since converting to first base in 2013, Napoli has played there almost exclusively, the exception being a brief though not brief enough cameo in left field with Texas last season. The Indians still need some outfield help, but presumably they are able to distinguish between ex-catchers who play first base and actual outfielders, and as such will use Napoli at first base. This, Indians fans, is a good thing. Oh, and so is the signing.

Napoli offers power and on-base and and a general ability to play first base effectively if not spectacularly. This, friends, is a valuable package. There is, of course, some potential for downside though. You don’t sign a player to a one year contract for $7 million in this market without there being some sort of problem. Napoli’s defect, the reason he could be had so cheaply, is that last season he was bad. However, there’s more to it than that, and as such there’s reason to believe Cleveland has bought a good player on the cheap.

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The White Sox swung a deal yesterday to acquire slugging third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds. To do so, they sent Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson and Francelis Montas to the Dodgers. The Dodgers sent Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, and Brandon Dixon to Cincinnati. Here’s the skinny on the sextet of prospects changing hands in this trade. As usual, the numbers you see below come from my KATOH projection system. Read the rest of this entry »

I detected a real sense of impatience as far as the Dodgers were concerned. Not impatience on the part of the Dodgers — rather, impatience on the part of people observing the Dodgers. Not that they’d been totally quiet, but they had been inactive. Now, Wednesday, the Dodgers have gotten themselves involved in a doozy. It’s a three-way trade, with the best player neither leaving the Dodgers, nor joining them. Instead, the Dodgers helped facilitate the Reds sending a quality third baseman to the White Sox. The full player breakdown:

White Sox get:

• Todd Frazier

White Sox lose:

• Francelis Montas
• Trayce Thompson
• Micah Johnson

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Reds get:

• Jose Peraza
• Scott Schebler
• Brandon Dixon

Reds lose:

• Todd Frazier

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Dodgers get:

• Francelis Montas
• Trayce Thompson
• Micah Johnson

Dodgers lose:

• Jose Peraza
• Scott Schebler
• Brandon Dixon

Frazier to Chicago, three Chicago prospects to Los Angeles, three Los Angeles prospects to Cincinnati. It stands to reason the Dodgers had to get involved because the Reds and White Sox couldn’t find an easy match straight up. Implying the Reds are higher on, say, the Peraza centerpiece than they would’ve been on a Montas centerpiece. These things can be kind of complicated to analyze, but let’s go team by team.

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