Imagining a Matt Harvey-Joc Pederson Trade

Despite losing out on Zack Greinke, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to have one of the best teams in major league baseball. While Jeff Sullivan made a reasonable case recently for the Chicago Cubs as the best team in baseball currently, the Dodgers are right there with them, even without the benefit of a major move. But now that the Hisashi Iwakuma deal has fallen apart and led Iwakuma to reunite with the Seattle Mariners, the Dodgers need pitching. They were rumored to be involved with the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller and rumors still surround the pursuit of Jose Fernandez and pitchers in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. It’s possible, however, that it’s Matt Harvey who could best solve the Dodgers’ problems.

Despite likely losing Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy to free agency, the New York Mets also have a very good team returning next year. By our Depth Charts projections, the Mets have the fifth-best team in baseball, less than a win behind division-rival Washington Nationals. The club has a really good shot at repeating as division winners, with a rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard leading the way, and a returning Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon as insurance. The team has a solid infield, shrewdly picking up Neil Walker, and they should be able to cobble something semi-productive out of Asdrubal Cabrera and their returning middle infielders at shortstop. The team does have a bit of a hole in center field, and the offense, without Cespedes or Cespedes, doesn’t look all that great. The Mets might still have some financial concerns going into next season. It’s possible, though, that the young and cheap and talented Joc Pederson could solve the Mets’ problems.

Yesterday, Dave Cameron proposed a trade between the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays which would net the Dodgers Chris Archer for multiple prospects, including Corey Seager. Today, I propose the Dodgers go a different direction. For good reason, the Dodgers were unwilling to part with Pederson to trade for Shelby Miller, but Shelby Miller is no Matt Harvey.

After missing all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Harvey came back strong in 2015, going 189.1 innings with a very good 25% strikeout rate to go along with a fantastic 5% walk rate. His ERA was just 2.71, and along with a very good 3.05 FIP, Harvey put together a 4.4 WAR season at 26 years old. He made another four starts in the playoffs, pitching very well, especially in the deciding game of the World Series until he was able to convince Terry Collins to leave him in the game for the ninth inning. For next season, Steamer projects Harvey to be worth 4.6 WAR and he should make just around $5 million in his first year of arbitration. Three years of Matt Harvey at arbitration prices is incredibly valuable. (Actual contract numbers are rough estimates).

Coming in to the 2015 season, Joc Pederson was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Kiley McDaniel put Pederson at No. 11, Keith Law had him down at no. 28, while Baseball America put him at no. 8, all expecting pretty big things from the soon-to-be 23 year old rookie. Pederson came out on fire and hit 20 home runs before the end of June. His 137 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR at the All-Star break were both 12th in the National League. In the second half, Pederson’s walk (16%) and strikeout rates (29%) remained the same, but his BABIP dropped to .232, he hit just six home runs and his wRC+ fell to 72, as he eventually lost playing time in center field.

While the second half does present some cause for concern for Pederson, he still put together a three-win season, and the Dodgers still value him highly, unwilling to part with him for Shelby Miller. Steamer projects Pederson for a 3.3 WAR season in 2016, and with five seasons of control before free agency, Pederson figures to be very valuable over the next few years.

The initial valuations shown above give Harvey a surplus of $90 million and Pederson a surplus of close to $135 million, a difference of about $45 million between the two. Even discounting the surplus by 8% in future seasons to account for present day value, the difference is still about $30 million between the two players. There might be a bit more risk with Pederson given only a year’s worth of production and his second half slide, but Harvey is just a year off from surgery and pitched 215 innings last season. Given the price paid for Shelby Miller, and the lack of high-end alternatives remaining on the free-agent market, that $30 million valuation difference is more theoretical than practical for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers might have to pay more for an ace, but he would make a big difference. Harvey’s 4.6 WAR boost would be big for the Dodgers, whose depth chart currently projects Hyun-Jin Ryu as the number-four starter, shouldering a significant load. In light of Ryu’s injury history — and the various questions concerning Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, and Brandon McCarthy behind him — it’s fair to say that rotation depth remains a concern. While the team would take a hit in center field by trading Pederson, newly acquired Trayce Thompson along with Enrique Hernandez could make up for some of that production if the team decided not to pursue a lower-tier center fielder like Denard Span or Dexter Fowler. In any event, the move would be a clear win for 2016 by three wins or more.

For the Mets, dealing Matt Harvey is not the ideal scenario, but it could improve the team. In Pederson they would be gaining a three-win center fielder, an upgrade on Juan Lagares by at least a win and a half, plus making Lagares the backup and taking away playing time from Kirk Nieuwenhuis and others could lead to another win. With the signing of Bartolo Colon, the Mets do have a bit of depth in their rotation. Losing Harvey’s 4.6 wins is big, but adding 100 more innings to Colon and Wheeler cover about two-thirds of the gap. In all, the Mets could end up a win better in a straight Harvey-Pederson swap that would also see the Mets save over $4 million in salary — which money they could then use to upgrade shortstop or, if they felt the need, further bolster their pitching staff. They are still around $15 million below last years Opening Day payroll.

Neither the Mets nor the Dodgers have to do anything to make their teams contenders next season. Both teams are already good enough to contend, but each has holes on their rosters — and specific short- and long-term needs which their counterparts could help fill. Back in July, Dave Cameron rated Pederson 12th and Harvey 27th in his annual Trade Value series, and it is likely the two have come a lot closer together in the past few months. While the value above showed the Mets getting the better end, Pederson would likely not be enough for the Mets to trade Harvey. Given the Dodgers’ resources, however, they could add a bit more to sweeten the pot, if they really feel the need to make a major upgrade to their rotation.