Imagining a Matt Harvey-Joc Pederson Trade
Despite losing out on Zack Greinke, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to have one of the best teams in major league baseball. While Jeff Sullivan made a reasonable case recently for the Chicago Cubs as the best team in baseball currently, the Dodgers are right there with them, even without the benefit of a major move. But now that the Hisashi Iwakuma deal has fallen apart and led Iwakuma to reunite with the Seattle Mariners, the Dodgers need pitching. They were rumored to be involved with the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller and rumors still surround the pursuit of Jose Fernandez and pitchers in the Tampa Bay Rays organization. It’s possible, however, that it’s Matt Harvey who could best solve the Dodgers’ problems.
Despite likely losing Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy to free agency, the New York Mets also have a very good team returning next year. By our Depth Charts projections, the Mets have the fifth-best team in baseball, less than a win behind division-rival Washington Nationals. The club has a really good shot at repeating as division winners, with a rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard leading the way, and a returning Zack Wheeler and Bartolo Colon as insurance. The team has a solid infield, shrewdly picking up Neil Walker, and they should be able to cobble something semi-productive out of Asdrubal Cabrera and their returning middle infielders at shortstop. The team does have a bit of a hole in center field, and the offense, without Cespedes or Cespedes, doesn’t look all that great. The Mets might still have some financial concerns going into next season. It’s possible, though, that the young and cheap and talented Joc Pederson could solve the Mets’ problems.
Yesterday, Dave Cameron proposed a trade between the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays which would net the Dodgers Chris Archer for multiple prospects, including Corey Seager. Today, I propose the Dodgers go a different direction. For good reason, the Dodgers were unwilling to part with Pederson to trade for Shelby Miller, but Shelby Miller is no Matt Harvey.
After missing all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Harvey came back strong in 2015, going 189.1 innings with a very good 25% strikeout rate to go along with a fantastic 5% walk rate. His ERA was just 2.71, and along with a very good 3.05 FIP, Harvey put together a 4.4 WAR season at 26 years old. He made another four starts in the playoffs, pitching very well, especially in the deciding game of the World Series until he was able to convince Terry Collins to leave him in the game for the ninth inning. For next season, Steamer projects Harvey to be worth 4.6 WAR and he should make just around $5 million in his first year of arbitration. Three years of Matt Harvey at arbitration prices is incredibly valuable. (Actual contract numbers are rough estimates).
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value | Actual Contract |
| 2016 | 27 | 4.6 | $8.0 M | $36.8 M | $5.0 M |
| 2017 | 28 | 4.6 | $8.4 M | $38.6 M | $8.0 M |
| 2018 | 29 | 4.6 | $8.8 M | $40.6 M | $13.0 M |
| Totals | 13.8 | $116.0 M | $26.0 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
Coming in to the 2015 season, Joc Pederson was one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Kiley McDaniel put Pederson at No. 11, Keith Law had him down at no. 28, while Baseball America put him at no. 8, all expecting pretty big things from the soon-to-be 23 year old rookie. Pederson came out on fire and hit 20 home runs before the end of June. His 137 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR at the All-Star break were both 12th in the National League. In the second half, Pederson’s walk (16%) and strikeout rates (29%) remained the same, but his BABIP dropped to .232, he hit just six home runs and his wRC+ fell to 72, as he eventually lost playing time in center field.
While the second half does present some cause for concern for Pederson, he still put together a three-win season, and the Dodgers still value him highly, unwilling to part with him for Shelby Miller. Steamer projects Pederson for a 3.3 WAR season in 2016, and with five seasons of control before free agency, Pederson figures to be very valuable over the next few years.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value | Actual Contract |
| 2016 | 24 | 3.3 | $8.0 M | $26.4 M | $0.5 M |
| 2017 | 25 | 3.5 | $8.4 M | $29.8 M | $0.5 M |
| 2018 | 26 | 3.8 | $8.8 M | $33.5 M | $6.0 M |
| 2019 | 27 | 4.0 | $9.3 M | $37.5 M | $10.0 M |
| 2020 | 28 | 4.0 | $9.7 M | $39.4 M | $14.0 M |
| Totals | 18.8 | $166.6 M | $31.0 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
The initial valuations shown above give Harvey a surplus of $90 million and Pederson a surplus of close to $135 million, a difference of about $45 million between the two. Even discounting the surplus by 8% in future seasons to account for present day value, the difference is still about $30 million between the two players. There might be a bit more risk with Pederson given only a year’s worth of production and his second half slide, but Harvey is just a year off from surgery and pitched 215 innings last season. Given the price paid for Shelby Miller, and the lack of high-end alternatives remaining on the free-agent market, that $30 million valuation difference is more theoretical than practical for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers might have to pay more for an ace, but he would make a big difference. Harvey’s 4.6 WAR boost would be big for the Dodgers, whose depth chart currently projects Hyun-Jin Ryu as the number-four starter, shouldering a significant load. In light of Ryu’s injury history — and the various questions concerning Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, and Brandon McCarthy behind him — it’s fair to say that rotation depth remains a concern. While the team would take a hit in center field by trading Pederson, newly acquired Trayce Thompson along with Enrique Hernandez could make up for some of that production if the team decided not to pursue a lower-tier center fielder like Denard Span or Dexter Fowler. In any event, the move would be a clear win for 2016 by three wins or more.
For the Mets, dealing Matt Harvey is not the ideal scenario, but it could improve the team. In Pederson they would be gaining a three-win center fielder, an upgrade on Juan Lagares by at least a win and a half, plus making Lagares the backup and taking away playing time from Kirk Nieuwenhuis and others could lead to another win. With the signing of Bartolo Colon, the Mets do have a bit of depth in their rotation. Losing Harvey’s 4.6 wins is big, but adding 100 more innings to Colon and Wheeler cover about two-thirds of the gap. In all, the Mets could end up a win better in a straight Harvey-Pederson swap that would also see the Mets save over $4 million in salary — which money they could then use to upgrade shortstop or, if they felt the need, further bolster their pitching staff. They are still around $15 million below last years Opening Day payroll.
Neither the Mets nor the Dodgers have to do anything to make their teams contenders next season. Both teams are already good enough to contend, but each has holes on their rosters — and specific short- and long-term needs which their counterparts could help fill. Back in July, Dave Cameron rated Pederson 12th and Harvey 27th in his annual Trade Value series, and it is likely the two have come a lot closer together in the past few months. While the value above showed the Mets getting the better end, Pederson would likely not be enough for the Mets to trade Harvey. Given the Dodgers’ resources, however, they could add a bit more to sweeten the pot, if they really feel the need to make a major upgrade to their rotation.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Why do that when you can imagine having both Harvey & Span (minus the money & insurance cost it would take to sign Span)?
Because Fred Wilpon has licenses to steal in MLB and New York City.
Dude, you are a walking non sequitur.
‘Cause the likelihood that Span produces more WAR than Kirk Nieuwenhuis can’t be more than 70%.
Mr. Edwards makes an intelligent proposal, and I think intelligent fans of both teams can see the reasoning. I’m a Met fan, and my main concern would be that a hit tool like Peterson’s probably won’t age well. When he loses a bit of reaction time, he might become immediately unplayable. The real efficient trade that would never happen is more like:
Peterson + Montas (/+ de Leon)
for
Harvey + Nimmo (+ Montero/Mejia/Reed/Verrert/Smoker)
Peterson & Lagares would make Nimmo redundant, but he would likely be an excellent 4th outfielder in LA very shortly. So, it makes sense to include him in a trade. That also bumps the Mets package up enough to get a guy like Montas, who could be their 8th inning immediately, basically making the present value swap even. As a Met fan, I’d want to see both de Leon and Montas, and the dodgers can take their pick of whatever 1 or 2 of the bullpen-ish guys I’m throwing in on the Mets side, but I concede that might be homerism.
Basically, I don’t concede that Peterson is a safer bet than Harvey, because I feel like Peterson both has bust potential as teams get tape on him, and a chance for a steep aging curve. But I’ll grant that I can’t just pretend Harvey is a riskless 5-WAR/200IP going forward, and say the team control makes up for the WAR gap.
There is absolutely no change whatsoever in how the Phillies are run.
Bill Giles put the ownership group together with people who think like him 35 years ago. Guess what? Bill Giles is still there. He took part in the hiring of MacPhail and Klentak both. He was at the press conference announcing the hiring of Klentak.
35 Years.
Jim Thome and Cliff Lee
That’s it.
35 Years.
Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco, the only two starting quality players signed out of Latin America. Ruiz was signed out of Panama for eight thousand dollars. Need that in numerical form? $8,000- Eight Stacks.
Maikel Franco was signed for $100,000- That’s one hundred thousand American dollars. One hundred Stacks.
The Red Sox paid $63 million to sign Yoan Moncada. The Phillies paid $108,000- to sign both Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco.
Two real free agents and two starting position players from Latin America signed for nothing.
The Phillies Way is unchanged. They will sit in the cellar until they collect enough free talent in the MLB Plantation Slave Auction held every June. These young slave/intern players will be exploited to the max by the Phillies bloodsucking ownership cabal. For seven years they will make these bloodsucking criminals massive profits. If a few become fan favorites and the crowds are still huge as they near free agency then they will be signed to short, team friendly deals. If any have slipped through their screening process and turn out to be normal players seeking long contracts they will be demonized and booted out the door.
The Phillies after telling lies to their fan base from 2012 onward finally admitted they were “rebuilding”. The truth of the matter is they are already planning their next rebuild as they conduct this one.
THAT is The Phillies Way.
Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC
\
Counseling or medication might help. Seriously.
J*hn Middlet*n BUYING Players would help.
SERIOUSLY
I am not sure if this is just a joke, but if it’s not, the dude who keeps posting this is probably schizophrenic.
Kevin Maitan is a Venezuelan teenager who plays shortstop. What could he possibly have to do with the Phillies ownership?
The Phillies have made some bone-headed moves, but they won NL pennants in 2008 and 20009, with a World Series win in ’08. They have spent a lot of money on their payroll (sometimes too much). What is the gripe? They are a franchise that seems to try, and occasionally wins.
“esdrtfyu” – Are you schizophrenic? Would you know if you were?
I like Joc but never for Harvey. If you can’t sign him in years then I go for it. Mets will have the best staff in bb next 3 years.
Trade a 26 year old starter, that was lights out in the money games.
Sounds like a move, a scred organization would make.
The Mets have been built on youth, pitching and they need solid D.
They have a CF already that supplies that. He’s the intangible here.
Can he also hit, given the chance.
You don’t trade a pitcher like Harvey, you let him pitch you to the post-season.
If healthy, in two years you’ll be like the Blue Jays saying why did we make that trade for Dickey!
NYJ
Agreed. Harvey has more value to the Mets than Joc at this point. Let Harvey pitch another year, helping the Mwts compete. If he won’t sign an extension you look to flip him for more valid than Joc Peterson. Peterson is a fine young player but it’s pretty clear that he was exposed by the end of last season. Will he adjust and live up to the prospect hype? Maybe. Until then he is a risk. Harvey is much closer to a sure thing in the short term. The Mets would be wise to hold on to the Dark Knight.
Dodgers would have to add DeLeon &/or Cotton plus Barnes to get the conversation started.
Harvey for De Leon, probably not. Maybe Cotton and Barnes would work with Joc. Mets would probably require a Woods or Bolsinger as well for added depth.
I didn’t realize you were the GM of the Mets.
Straight up that’s a good trade for the Dodgers. If they have to throw anything else in, then no.
Its not suppose to just be a good trade for dodgers dumbass!
The velcro on your Pampers not working? Calm down little misfit nerd.
Straight up, that’s not a good trade for the Mets.
If the Dodgers don’t throw anything else in, then no.
YTPS.
“The team does have a bit of a hole in center field.”
Juan Lagares has played 3 seasons in the majors. In the first 2 he played only about 3/4 of the year and still posted WARs of 3.0 & 4.0.
Yes, he had a bad year last season, but he was hurt and probably a little overweight. If he’s healthy and in shape he should return to his spectacular defense, which is crucial for a team built around pitching and plays in a big home stadium.
I enjoy reading fangraphs because the analysis is usually more thoughtful than “oh, he’s a .260 hitter.”
Lagares has a career wRC+ of 86 (in 1,300-ish PAs). If his defense falls off even a little…
Not to mention there are still a ton of center fielders on the open market. Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, Alejandro de Aza, Gerrardo Parra… the list goes on and on.
The Metx can find a LHH CFer pretty easily. They don’t have to shop their ace pitcher (coming off a post-TJ down year, btw) to find one.
Except that none of them are really CFers besides Fowler…
And Span.
Coming off of hip surgery, its doubtful he’s going back to CF.
If I were the Mets, I’d throw my lot with De Aza I think.
Harvey had a down year? He was a top 10 pitcher. He had the best first season back from TJ ever. He had a fantastic season!!! And I’m saying this as a Cubs fan.
We have no idea what Harvey will do going forward, but all Mets fans / regular viewers of the Mets (including Harvey himself) said at the end of the season that he was “off” from his 2013 form. Whether or not he ever returns to that form is unknown, but we’ve seen Harvey in an even higher gear than we witnessed in 2015.
jose fernandez was better, 2.24 fip.
Jose Fernandez also only threw an average relief season’s worth of innings. His FIP may have been better, but Harvey had a much better season
Exactly, it was a fantastic season considering he was returning from TJ surgery. But he also threw way more 2-seam fastballs than before and threw fewer sliders and 4-seam fastballs as a way to have quicker innings. As a result his strikeouts went down.
The only category he was top 10 in was BB/9.
And no, let me stop you right now, ERA doesnt count
Actual results are irrelevant?
if ERA actually measured actual results, it wouldn’t be irrelevant, however, it does not. It measures the performance of the pitcher AND the defense. So, you could say: Matt Harvey+Mets Defense was a top 10 pitcher + defense combo in 2015, but you could NOT say: Matt Harvey was a top 10 pitcher in 2015.
Let’s be serious. Harvey played in front of an atrocious defense. He pitched in front of one of the worst infields in all of baseball. Despite that, his ERA was still strong. Tgat’s imptessive.
Jake DeGrom is the Mets’ “ace pitcher”. Noah Syndergaard is probably next in line, and Matz is not too far behind.
Matt Harvey is a very good pitcher who people seem to think is an amazing pitcher.
Who would the Mets plug into the rotation until Wheeler returns in July?
Definitely not a fan of this theoretical trade, but they could plug in Logan Verrett and/or Rafael Montero
take back someone like zach lee from the dodgers as well and then include montero.
Colon
You must be a Dodgers fan. The Meta are not going to trade Harvey,but if they do they would need to get a LOT more for him than Joc Peterson, c’mon! The guy went like 0- for the second half of the season!
…and you must be a Mets fan
I’m a Cubs fan and totally agree… Harvey should cost a whole lot more than Pederson.
Yeah it doesn’t take a Mets fan to see this is awful trade idea.
Seriously? You are comparing Harvey, a top 5 pitcher with a unproven mediocre “prospect”?
what? You do realize Harvey already has a TJS, so that brings his trade value down a bit.
Matt Harvey is good. Very good.
Matt Harvey is not a top 5 pitcher. You can make your case for Harvey being awesome, or against this particular trade, without hyperbole.
“Top 5 pitcher?”
Top five of what? I agree he is one of the Mets’ top 5 pitchers – somewhat behind DeGrom and Syndergaard.
Why would Mets do this when they were talking about Harvey for Tulo with Jays? Dodgers would have to add a lot.
Tulo may be breaking down, but if you prefer him, I am sure the Blue Jays would jump.
Where on Earth did you read that? I can’t find it anywhere
Why would Mets do this when they were talking about Harvey for Tulo with Jays? Dodgers would have to add a lot.
The Mets have said no to trading their pitching for longer than I can remember. First they said no when they were prospects, and the media all complained about how “The Mets weren’t committed to winning”.
Then Harvey became a star, and people said “Oh, well they should still trade Wheeler, because pitching prospects never work out”. Then Wheeler became a successful pitcher (and the team continued to improve), and people said “Oh, well now that the rotation is set they should trade Syndergaard”.
The Mets haven’t ever had any intention of trading away their stud pitchers. I don’t see any reason for them to. Just like I don’t see any reason for the Indians to trade Carrasco/Salazar. They have enough financial flexibility to upgrade the team through free agency, so a lateral move like this (that could be a whole lot worse) seems pointless.
You mean you wouldn’t trade a proven number – starter for an unproven .210 hitting, Dave Kingman type player and a bunch of other unproven prospects. This is an incredibly stupid trade.
I think Pederson is chancy in a way these simple middle-of-the-road projection tables don’t account for. A hit tool that bad creates a serious bust risk, even with so many secondary skills. I’d be terrified of trading an ace-sized piece for a kid who seems to have been figured out and might struggle to reach the Mendoza line going forward.
I doubt his BABIP will stay at .232. League avg is .300 and that would drive his slash line into remarkable territory.
He will probably never post strong BABIPs; he hits too many fly balls (his approach is literally hit the ball in the air) and is pretty predictable on where he hits his grounders.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-trout-bryce-harper-and-joc-pederson-on-the-top-hand/
That’s likely true but I’d be fairly surprised if it doesn’t rise significantly this coming season. Maybe not .300 but still, .232 is pretty unsustainable.
Joc’s BABIP last season wasn’t .232. It was .262.
He had a .385 BABIP in AAA though. Of course defenses are worse there, but I don’t see him as a low BABIP hitter.
You know who else in the Dodgers system had .380 AAA BABIP in 2014? Tim Federowicz.
And hitting 73 homeruns would make him Barry Bonds. So what? Pederson’s hit tool is bad. If it wasn’t, Pederson’s slash line would be a lot better, but that’s besides the point.
I wouldn’t be so quick to bet on a guy’s BABIP rebounding when he’s sporting a 15% IFFB%.
High strike out, power pull hitter. He is the type of hitter who will produce lower BABIP with today’s defensive alignments.
joc hit ~.300 over 1500 AB his last three stops in the minors. it isn’t out of this world to imagine the BABIP bouncing back.
hitting .300 in the minors isn’t exactly a recipe for stardom in the majors.
i agree, which is why i said nothing of the sort. i simply said that a higher AVG and BABIP in the minors makes a BABIP bounceback plausible.
” doubt his BABIP will stay at .232. League avg is .300″
That’s not how BABIP works.
As for Pederson, he has an Adam Dunn profile, hit a HR or draw a walk. If you believe Pederson is going to hit 40+ bombs a year then you believe in him. If not….
Adam Dunn had a career .286 BABIP.
“I doubt his BABIP will stay at .232. League avg is .300”
It’s 2015, we know that’s not how this works
We do? We think Pederson is Eric Munson? Because that’s the only player with a BABIP .232 or below this century
We know it’s not as simple as “Player X’s BABIP is Z, league average is .300” just like we know people actually have the ability to outperform FIP and xFIP
That’s true, you can’t automatically assume that he will bounce back to league average; however it’s even more unlikely that it would remain at .232 where it was in the second half of 2015, as bososx13 points out.
How do you all not understand that it is 5 years of Pederson and 3 years of Harvey. if they were equal players no way the Dodgers would do this. Harvey has to be better for a trade like that to work…
It might be a fair trade, but the Mets still have zero incentive to make it. That’s the whole point. Their outfield is mostly set now anyway, whereas losing Harvey is a massive blow to a rotation that while excellent is already lacking in depth.
Fine to say the Mets dont want to do it. But comparing the players and saying one is better so you cant do the trade is insane b/c it ignores control/cost. And most previous comments are as ignorant as that.
They’re not ignoring it. They’re all saying that control doesn’t matter if the talent difference is that great.
6 years of Seager? Sure, that’s arguable. 5 years of Pederson who was below replacement level after June? Meh.
SCMF has it. Years of control are nice but it’s also reasonable to care about not making the team you’re putting on the field in 2016-17 that much worse.
So would you trade 5 years of Shelby Miller for 3 years of Clayton Kershaw?
What, it’s 5 years for 3 years! You said that covers the difference in talent!
Yes. That is an accurate portrayal of my argument.
Trolling?
exactly. totally would. you guys are making well thought out and fascinating points. good lord. relax mets fans. you guys had a good year. congrats. your team is still cash strapped.
probably not a great deal for the mets, but it isnt criminally uneven and comical….y’all acting like Harvey didnt have TJ
If you’d trade 3 years of Kershaw for Shelby Miller you’re insane
“If you’d trade 3 years of Kershaw for Shelby Miller you’re insane”
Hold onto this thought. You’re more than warm here.
Yes, but Harvey is the far more premium player right now.
In addition to Noah’s point, which I totally agree with, the comparison is built on Steamer projections that could be very wrong for each player.
In the case of Pederson, Steamer does not know that his 2nd half may have shown us a player that was exposed/figured out at the MLB level. It’s essentially just ticking up his year-to-year performance due to his age and yearly totals from last season. He is clearly a very, very talented kid, but until he shows a genuine ability to adjust to what the league starts doing to him, it is dangerous to just assume he will.
In the case of Harvey it’s even more clear to me they are underrating him. Steamer does not know that in the 2nd half Harvey largely got his peripherals back in line with his 2013 Cy Young caliber season (they were actually better). More to the point, Steamer is not giving him credit for ‘surviving’ the standard TJS rough-patch in the first half. The fact that you could barely tell he was struggling in the 1st half is testament to how flipping good he is.
I credit Craig’s creativity for this piece, but truth is that such a deal only makes sense for the Dodgers, especially when guys like Span, Fowler and De Aza are still out there on the market for the Mets to potentially sign without having to lose a Harvey in the process.
That’s a laughable deal, a top 10 pitcher (probably top 5) for a guy that couldn’t get out of his own way after pitchers started to figure him out. Now pederson and seager is a deal I’d get done
Agreed, Pederson wasn’t very good last year when the league figured him out. There is no way the Mets would make that deal.
AND, the Dodgers being one of the best teams in baseball?? They have no starting pitching after Kershaw.
2015 pitching leaders by fWAR
1 Clayton Kershaw 8.6
2 Jake Arrieta 7.3
3 David Price 6.4
4 Max Scherzer 6.4
5 Chris Sale 6.2
6 Dallas Keuchel 6.1
7 Zack Greinke 5.9
8 Corey Kluber 5.5
9 Gerrit Cole 5.4
10 Chris Archer 5.3
11 Jacob deGrom 5.2
12 Madison Bumgarner 5.1
13 Jon Lester 5.0
14 Jose Quintana 4.8
15 Carlos Carrasco 4.8
16 Tyson Ross 4.4
17 Matt Harvey 4.4
He’s closer to 20 than he is to 10.
Cubs fan here, truly hate the Mets. Love lists though.
Something like:
1 Kershaw
2 Sale
3 Arrieta
4-8 Alphabetically: Archer – Keuchel – Kluber – Price – Scherzer
9-12 Alphabetically: Bumgarner – Degrom – Grienke – Harvey
I haven’t heard anyone say they hate the Mets in a long time.
While I’ve never hated the Mets; I find them kind of cute in a redheaded stepchild kind of way, a lot of my fellow Cubs fans do hate the Mets, part of that being Chicago just doesn’t like New York. (we do acknowledge it’s an awesome city, still hate it)
I know, makes me feel good to hear a Cubs fan say that. Not quite as good as signing Heyward away from them would have made me, but I’ll take what i can get
Good on ya! It’s good to have a Cubs-Mets rivalry again. I have lamented the loss of the pre-realignment days when the Mets would play the Cubs and Cards 18 times instead of the 6-7 games they play now.
Everyone from #17 Harvey to #8 Kluber are separated by 1 WAR or less. Because WAR is inexact and has error bars, you can make a reasonable argument for any of those guys being top 10. And when you consider this was Harvey’s first year back from TJ and that he put up a 6.5 WAR season in only 26 starts prior to the surgery, his case is pretty strong.
Harvey is way cooler than like, all but deGrom, Archer, and Greinke tho, so you need to account for that
His first season back from TJ and he put up exceptional numbers, a couple of different outings and he’s pushing for the top 5.This is a guy who throws 97 with pinpoint accuracy with a deadly slider when on and a plus changeup, to give that away for a “gamble” which Pederson is, is insane. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pushing for a Cy Young this year.
“a couple of different outings and he’s pushing for the top 5.”
yeah, you…you can’t do that. Unless you give “a couple of different outings” to everyone on the list. Can’t just disregard the bad results for one player and not for everyone.
Again, Matt Harvey is very, very good. May be top 5 someday. It does not diminish him in any way to say that he’s outside the top 5 right now.
I’m not saying Joc is a star, but in what world are we living in that Harvey is a top 5 pitcher in baseball? Are we back in 2013 before the TJS?
Exactly. You have to look at a really small sample to argue Harvey is top 5.
And the same people who would make this argument, will also dismiss the small sample of success Pederson had, focusing on his admittedly TERRIBLE second half.
It makes no sense to compare the best of one player to the worst of another…but here we are.
Price or Harvey? Price is a mediocre pitcher when playing in playoffs, opposite to Harvey. So, what does your statement mean? NOTHING! Harvey led the team to WS after LONG TIME. Please, don’t compare a mediocre batter as you have in Pederson with a top pitcher
Me love Harvey “long time.”
Matt Harvey has the 3rd best ERA in baseball, 2013-15, 350+ IP
It’s 2015. I don’t care what anyone’s ERA is.
The 2015 MLB ERA leader just signed a $200 million contract and was runner up in NL Cy Young to the 2nd place ERA guy, which is a really, really frequent pattern this decade.
In 2013 and 2014, the ERA leader won the NL CY, and also the 2014 MVP. That same player is the 21st century ERA leader and also the proud owner of a $200 million contract.
ERA isn’t some stupid thing like OPSBI that holds literally no value. ERA holds a lot of value. Just like BABIP isn’t as simple as “well player X’s was Z but league average is .300 so regression,” so is ERA not as simple as “well player Y’s was T, but his FIP was U so regression.”
Sure, people quote and pay attention to ERA. It does have some descriptive value. However we know there are some better metrics available to describe a pitcher’s value, so making it the only point in your argument regarding Harvey’s value is pretty flawed.
That’s the worst trade idea I’ve heard so far this offseason. The only people who would like this would be Dodgers fans. And don’t give me that five years for three years nonsense. If I wrap a dump in a box, it’s still a dump…
I don’t think you understand anything about player value or how to make a point that doesn’t sound like a 15 year old wrote it.
Player value is what we have RIGHT NOW. Pederson sucks compared to Harvey.
Projections? who cares? it means nothing
Good thing the Mets didn’t have that attitude when Harvey and Syndegaard were coming up…
LOL. Ridiculous.
Wait this guys idea is to trade the ace of the national league championship team for a guy that was benched in august? please quit your job dude try something else
Even the Mets don’t view Harvey as their most valuable asset. Why should anyone else?
what are you talking about?
The Dodgers should aim higher. A guy like Colone is worth $7 million and has been worth more in the past.
The Mets need a center fielder, so they might be willing to take Jock plus a couple of minor leaguers like Seger and Urias. That group is worth close enough to $7 million, and the Mets fill some holes.
take a spelling class
this is tired
take a nap
No thanks. I’ll keep Harvey and watch him dominate the National League again. Trading him next off season makes a lot more sense since there will be an awful free agent class. And even then I’ll be just as happy to keep him for yet another year. He’s a good as it gets on the mound. Ask dodger fans next summer how they feel about losing one of their aces.
I’d like 2 more shots with the Mets big 5 before they start to break up the band. You can still get a top prospect for one year of Matt Harvey.
Sandy Alderson: I would say we definitely think about reviewing that type of trade. It is not unreasonable to think we may or may not be interested in something like that.
John Ricco: We are not trading Matt Harvey for Joc Pederson.
The Dodgers get a guaranteed top pitcher, the Mets get a question mark.
Conclusory.
Not convincing.
Um, no.
Joc “K” Peterson swings and missed more than a shirtless Barto Colon at a night club.
So…never?
I strike out less when I put on a little Eau de Colon. Maybe Joc should try some.
WHAT PART OF NO DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND, I WANT MORE
no deal
Yeah this is a pretty terrible trade idea. Pederson may not even be upgrade over Lagares who was worth a combined 7 WAR in the two years prior to this one. Pederson strikes out a lot (29%) and hits a lot of pop ups (15%). His defense and base running are pretty average so he’s not going to provide a ton of value when he’s not hitting. His impressive base stealing numbers didn’t translate at the major league level. Just too many red flags for me to even think about trading a legit ace for him.
this is a poor portrayal of how WAR works, war captures the win’s above replacement level, it does not however capture the wins added to a particular team. The Mets need offense, they have strikeout pitchers so the outfield defense is less valuable to them, so replacing legares with a better hitter does drastically improve their team even if they happen to each have say 4 WAR next year.
we need offense more than defense? this is the opposite of the obvious
right thats why it is was an average team until they got cespedes, and an offensive player in murphy actually carried them in the playoffs. they need a legit middle of the bat, or it will be a struggle to get in the playoffs. i highly doubt granderson matches his career high in obp again
well, murphy carried them in the playoffs until he started dropping stuff and then they lost
“They [The Mets] are still around $15 million below last years Opening Day payroll.”
That’s just not accurate. The Mets are currently sitting almost exactly at what the opening day payroll was for 2015.
Wait, so Shelby Miller gets a 25 y/o CF worth 5.3 WAR, the top overall pick in the 2015 draft, and a top pitching prospect, but the Mets should take just Joc Pederson for one of the best pitchers in baseball?
Makes sense.
An overpay – which is pretty universally understood to be an overpay – does not set the market.
Not saying the trade discussed here makes sense. But the idea that the Miller trade should be a guiding light for future trades is absurd.
But an argument could be made for Pederson being the 3rd best asset of the 4 players.
Look at the pile of shit Phillies fans got back for Hamels.
J*hn Middlet*n put the rest of Hamels contract in his bank account.
As much as Mets want to think people are overrating Joc Pederson, it’s fun to watch Mets fan in return overrate Matt Harvey.
As a Met fan: Yup.
I understand your point, but I think you are misrepresenting the reaction to the basis of the article. The article assumptions are that Pederson will only improve, but Harvey has maxed out. Since we are dealing with small samples on Pederson, it is what it is. Harvey has been worth about 5.17 WAR per 30 starts (65 regular season starts) and the projections have him at 4.6 WAR each year for 3 years. This seems to be based on him having a full season (30 starts) on post-TJ 2015 numbers (4.3 WAR).
For reference to the skepticism of Mets fans (myself included), Steamer had 2015 Harvey worth 3.2 WAR and DeGrom worth 2.7 WAR. Considering they finished with 4.3 and 4.7 respectively, I hope you can see why we tend to place a little more value on Harvey than Steamer projections do.
And just for giggles, 2015 Steamer had Pederson worth 2.8 WAR (finished with 2.3).
That is totally fair. I don’t think a straight up swap would work and I don’t think Joc would be as valuable as Harvey will be unless he puts up an .850 OPS with above average defense like he looked the first 3 months of the season. I absolutely believe Harvey and Degrom should be projected higher than what Steamer had them for, though I don’t know how many people expected a season from Degrom like he had. Boy was he good.
I contend that the Mets sign Span/Fowler and look for a 1B/3B Right Handed Hitter with thump like that guy Frazier, oh wait! Span/Walker/Grandy/Frazier/Conforto/TDA/Duda/Assdribble would have been nice! BTW based on the Shelby Miller trade, Joc for Matt gets laughed at. Not saying it’s not fair, but based on market conditions, it’s not even close.
I think trade proposals like this miss the point a bit about what it is that teams actually value. The Mets are a win now team. Their primary goal is winning the WS in 2016. When you are trying to win the WS you don’t trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for a rookie that got benched for poor performance the previous year simply because it will net you two years of team control of the suspect player well down the road.
The Mets also value cost control. Their ownership is not a blank-check operation.
It’s all well and good to say let’s look at what teams “actually value”. But let’s look at what teams actually value, instead of stating that the team values exactly what you want them to value for the sake of your argument.
Not saying this deal should go through or that it makes sense.
But it’s disingenuous to pretend like salary, player control, and not wanting to increase payroll aren’t also things teams “actually value”.
I stated that the Mets value winning the WS because it is the point of baseball, not because it is what I want them to value. It is not hard to maximise player control and minimise salary. It is hard to do those things in the context of doing the thing that the team actually cares about: winning the WS.
My point is not that financial concerns are not important. It is that a team that feels like it has a good chance to win now should not be expected to jettison one of the best performers in the game for salary cost control down the road. The mets have a better chance to win the WS next year with Harvey than they do with Pederson. They also have a better chance in 2017 with Harvey than they would with Pederson. This would be a terrible trade for the Mets, and a fantastic one for the Dodgers who also want to win now. These decisions are framed within the context of the team’s chances for winning the WS now, and down the road.
This. The Mets are, and should be, more focused on adding short term wins than future wins. If the Mets were coming off a 90 loss season and were in the midst of a prolonged rebuild, then yeah, this deal would make a little more sense. That said, I still think it would be a bad deal because I think the Mets could get a lot more for three years of Harvey.
DNA identifies the crux of this discussion. I’d go a step further, and say that the Mets’ (or any other team’s) primary goal should be to be a perennial contender, not just to win a WS once every 30 years or so. Trading Harvey for Pederson would not enhance their contention in 2016-2018. To stay a contender in 2019 and beyond, after Harvey’s gone, they need to out-draft and out-develop the competition, not trade Harvey now. Staying in contention 4 or more years down the road– that’s what your scouting and player development program is for. You don’t trade ace pitchers with 3 years of team control now in order to improve marginally 4 years from now.
Sadly, most teams’ real goal is to make money (or at least not lose it).
Tigers excluded.
Just to play devil’s advocate, baseball is at least as much about making money as it is about winning the World Series.
Matt Harvey WAR last three seasons: 6.5, 4.4, 4.6
Shelby Miller WAR last three seasons: 2.4, 0.5, 3.4
Zack Greinke WAR last three seasons: 3.4, 4.4, 5.9
Matt Harvey as some of you are saying is not OVERrated.
You do know Harvey hasn’t even pitched in 3 full seasons? You can’t pick up his projected WAR and call it a season.
In today’s game I would call 175+ Inn, which he did in ’13 and ’14 a full season.
Dude. He didn’t pitch in 2014.
Matt Harvey’s WAR last three seasons: 6.5, 0.0, 4.4.
’13 and ’15, my apologies.
Added on to that, we can take the average WAR of the past three seasons:
Matt Harvey: Either 1.3, 6.5 and 4.4 for about 4 WAR avg, or 6.5, 0, 4.4 for a 3.6 WAR avg, neither of which I feel comfortable about because of the obvious differences in playing time by year
Shelby Miller: 2.4, 0.5, 3.4: 2.1 WAR avg
Zack Greinke: 3.4, 4.4, 5.9: 4.6 WAR avg
I do agree with your overall assessment, that Harvey is much more valuable, but please provide a better argument.
Dude you can’t take a 3 year average of his performance and then include two partial seasons. He was called up in late July in 2012 and then his season was cut short in August 2013. Even 2015 wasn’t a truly full season with all of the skipped starts and pitch count limits.
Harvey has a career 2.65 FIP. In addition, he has sported an excellent 11.2% IFFB% that has allowed him to generate a career .274 BABIP, possibly making him a FIP-beater. He’s a 5-6 WAR pitcher when healthy in my opinion.
“neither of which I feel comfortable about because of the obvious differences in playing time by year”
I completely agree. Just a quick attempt attempt show how useless the previous posters argument was.
The Mets aren’t trading Matt Harvey for anyone like Joc Pederson. You want to mention Mike Trout or Mccutcheon we can have a conversation. He’s a front of the rotation young stud under team control. They have the best young 1-2-3 in baseball. They are not breaking it up. These articles are tedious.
And this is the dumbest thing i’ve read all year… Cutch or Trout? You’re insane.
We are coming to the end of 2015. I suggest that if you can go an entire year without reading anything dumber than what you are responding to, then you are clearly not reading enough.
Well you’re the same guy who said he’d trade Kershaw for Shelby Miller straight up…
Man, if you honestly believe I was suggesting the Kershaw-Miller trade made sense, you really need some better reading comprehension skills.
All i ever said was that saying Harvey is a better player than Joc doesnt mean the trade is lopsided. Control and dollars matter. I’d be worried enough about the league figuring Joc out to prefer harvey. But the idea isnt insane. And the people commenting on this article seem to disregard completely the notion that years of control and related costs matter and matter a ton. Which is ignorant of how baseball works.
To get responses like the shelby miller one signaled to me that the conversation wasnt worth happening….
Lastly, the idea that trout or mccutchen arent worlds better (never mind their team-favored deals) than Harvey is absolutely nuts.
I agree with you that the premise isn’t crazy, it’s just that the framework of the argument may be seriously flawed; specifically basing each player’s long-term valuations on next year’s Steamer projections.
I outline in a post above why I think Steamer is low on Harvey and high on Pederson, and if I am correct the long-term valuation charts that Craig posts are totally off.
In a vaccuum it isn’t insane. If the Mets were a rebuilding team, a trade like this would make some sense. If Harvey was closer to free agency, a trade like this would make some sense. If Harvey was making $26 M per year rather than the $26 M he’s projected to make over the next three, a trade like this would make some sense. If the Mets had a black hole center field, a trade like this would make some sense.
The problem is that none of the above scenarios apply. The Mets are a win now team. Harvey is a cheap ace with three years of control remaining. The Mets don’t have a black hole in center where Steamer projects Lagares to be around league average over a full season.
In a vacuum, the trading there might be some merit to trading three years of Harvey for five years of Joc. But in context, it is very much insane.
Very few people were arguing the merits of projections and the dollar evaluations before. The folks interacting with me all basically said Harvey > Pederson, therefor no. Which is insane and 85% of this comment board is basically just saying Pederson is a terrible player (not true) and Harvey is very good (true) and therefore there’s no way a deal like this would work. which is just a misunderstanding of baseball
The comments section of FG has really gone down the gutters, the quality is akin to the ones on Metsblog or WFAN.
I don’t disagree but you have to consider the quality of the articles, too. Idle rosterbation always leads to hairy comments.
I disagree. I think the comments changed pretty suddenly right after they began the link with Fox Sports.
Oh, I definitely agree that happened, and probably also that it’s the biggest factor. I’m just saying there are other factors to consider as well.
Something is wrong with your surplus evaluation if you determine Joc Pederson has 30+ million MORE surplus value than Harvey, but then say that it would take more than just Pederson to get Harvey. It’s pretty obvious that teams value prospects very highly, and yet the recent dollar values that Fangraphs has placed on prospects has far exceeded the market’s evaluation. In this case, you are tacitly saying that both teams misvalue Pederson and/or Harvey by more than 30 million, plus more prospects that probably add another 10 million or so, which strikes me as a very bold statement. This isn’t the Dbacks!
Doesn’t account for the premium of wins now versus the future or account for additional risks. Yes having a few extra wins in 2020 is nice, but consolidating wins in the present is what’s more valuable.
Pitching costs more than hitting.look what Grienke n Price got per year.you can tell me all you want about War numbers but the bottom line is in a redraft Harvey would go rounds ahead of Pederson.Joc would be lucky to be picked in the top 100.Harvey would easily go 50 spots ahead of him
Harvey for Peterson – what a nutty suggestion. Unless the Dodgers include Seager and their top pitching prospect, there can be no discussion. I’m happy to retain Harvey for the next couple of years and make do with likes of Span or preferably Parra in the OF.
“Losing Harvey’s 4.6 wins is big, but adding 100 more innings to Colon and Wheeler cover about two-thirds of the gap.”
Two thirds of that is ~3 wins. Colon and Wheeler are collectively giving you 3 WAR / 200 IP?
Wheeler might get you that rate, but I wouldn’t count on the innings. Steamer has Colon at 1 win per 100 IP. Okay, I’m nitpicking over 3 versus 1.5 – 2, but it jumped out at me.
[Why is Devon White currently beating Jorge Posada?]
The Dogers are contenders with 1 solid starting pitcher in Kershaw!!!! The Dogers are getting 8 billion dollars from Time Warner and half there fans cannot even see the games due to the amount of money TIme Warner wants from Direct TV and other cable providers. Dogers Don’t give a rats ass about the fans. Remember the song MONEY MONEY MONEY
The Dogers candidates with a solid start on average 1 Kershaw. Dogers became $ 8,000,000 million Time Warner and fans could see game the size of Time Warner want television and cable suppliers directly. Don’t be Dogers ass on the fan. Remember the song money money money
WOOFer!!
As a Mets fan I feel compelled to distance myself from the lunacy of some of the trade-idea-condemning comments here but I have to say I agree with their basic position. This is one of those cases where overrelying on projections is driving the analysis away from common-sense evaluation — common sense knows that the difference in years of control is overbalanced by the variability and downside on the Pederson side.
And then there’s also the important principle, way too often overlooked in proposing “downgrade” trades like this, that a 5+ WAR star player in one roster spot is worth *more* to a roster than a 3 WAR player and two fudged wins coming from unspecified other places.
Wow FG, wow. Multiple make-believe articles on no-way-of-ever-happening-outside-FBB “deals” in one week? Why all the focus on make-believe fantasy moves recently?
This goes so far beyond the yearly, now-standard, Hot-stove season speculation that was for the last 10 years, increasing, yet in some respects reasonable…or at least understandable.
I know a large portion of the traffic is driven here by FBB…and I know the FA position player, hell, the entire FA market, has been slow to develop this winter on an unprecedented level, but…
WTF is going on at this website?
Chasin’ those sweet, sweet offseason clicks.
They will never trade Harvey. Period.
*watches Harvey get traded tomorrow*
Can Cespedes play CF full time ish?
Probably not. He had very little time there, so fully buying into his poor CF metrics isn’t advisable, but he didn’t pass the eye-test either. He looked ok for the first few weeks, but by September his poor jumps and questionable routes started to become more obvious. In addition it seemed clear he had some confidence issues taking charge from the corner OFers as certain balls were dropping in because no one was calling them.
That said, the weaknesses I saw also feel like the kinds of things that can be smoothed out with more reps and confidence, and in this particular case the former should naturally beget the latter.
With proclamations like that I would enjoy seeing Harvey traded for the next Victor Zambrano just for the hell of it.
HAHAHAHA! As if the Mets would trade one of the top ten talents in the game for a rookie who hit .178 his second time around the league.
This is the worse article I have ever read… It was a complete waste of my time… And for anyone who would be dumb enough to think that Sandy Alderson would even entertain this trade is delusional… Look at Sandy’s past and current trades for the Mets he does not give in to any organization with giving up his young studs…. I’m sorry Joc Pederson is a nice player but he is nowhere near Matt Harvey’s league right now… Look at their numbers they speak for themselves!
I think many people are overlooking the fact that Joc Pederson is cost controlled for 5 years and Harvey for only 3. But given this, I still don’t think it would be an even trade. We all know the Mets wouldn’t do this trade. Which likely means that the projection for Pederson is too high. Given the bad second half of the season that Pederson had — the error bars on his value are extremely high, giving too much risk to the Mets. I think the Dodgers would have to throw in a prospect ranked around 4-8 for the Mets to even pick up the phone.
I like these trade articles — but I think they need to be Fangraphs peer vetted before put out.
Actually, people are putting way too much emphasis on 5 years for Pederson and 3 years for Harvey. It’s actually a common problem on fangraphs in general as this type of logic is extremely flawed. The emphasis on years of control and total of hypothetical wins between the two players totally ignores the present day and ultimately that is what matters most to virtually all teams.
The reason why this trade makes no sense for the Mets can actually be understood in simple terms. By making this trade, the Mets weaken themselves in 2016, 2017, 2018 only to make themselves (potentially) better in 2019 and 2020. And who knows what will happen 3+ years down the road? Maybe the Mets super awesome rotation isn’t so good down the line. Injuries can happen. Maybe Conforto and d’Arnaud don’t live up to their early career lines. So much can happen. They might not be contending after 2018.
In a vacuum, maybe I could understand the logic, but the Mets are championship contenders and it would be frankly absurd to forfeit present value by trading Harvey. This isn’t a rebuilding team, this is the 2015 NL Champs we are talking about here.
Harvey replacement (WAR) minus Harvey WAR
plus
Pederson (WAR) minus Pederson replacement (WAR)
is how you determine present day wins gained/lossed in trade.
If only it were that simple.
what the hell is this? in what world would the mets move harvey NOW for joc? pederson is incredibly flawed and does not have the ceiling that some seem to think he does.
If they’re going to trade Harvey, I’d rather get Mookie Betts from Boston. Much more realistic in terms of value, also cost-controlled and right now a much better player than Pederson, And it gets Harvey out of the NL and in the Northeast where maybe the Sox can keep him away from the Yankees once free agency hits.
As a Red Sox fan allow me to two words: please no.
Harvey is great and all, don’t get me wrong, but Betts is likely the only sure thing in the outfield next season and beyond. JBJ is awesome defensively but it’s wise to be skeptical of his offense at this point. Rusney Castillo is also a big question mark with regard to both health and performance. Once the RS signed price, a trade for a pitcher like Harvey became a luxury. Keeping Mookie in the fold is a necessity.
A fair return for Harvey would be a lot more than Pederson and a lot less than Betts.
I know they were rated close together in the mid-season trade value rankings, but Pederson really should have been about 20 slots lower, and that was before his second-half collapse. I don’t know what OF would be the best break-even return for Harvey…maybe A.J. Pollock.
As a Met fan, I’m fine with trading Harvey. But for Pederson? I have two words: fuck no.
Personally I feel that I quality of the comments section has devolved in concert with the quality of the articles themselves.
Jays fan (and by extension not much of a NY fan) but I take exception to the math used to suggest that Pederson has 30 million in excess value over Harvey. This seems like a case where I don’t even have to look at the math to know it’s wrong. Even before we factor in the bust odds (clearly higher in Joc) projections seem off.
After that, the entire basis for this article is gone and its tough to fault Mets fans for their (often poorly articulated) responses.
The fact that we haven’t seen much other than “sign me up” from dodger fans is telling.
This article has a couple of major flaws in it’s assumptions. One – it assumes that all WAR are created equal. They are not. Two – it assumes that the Mets only have the Dodgers as trading partners. They do not.
Conservatively, Harvey will be worth +2.0 WAR over Pederson for the 2016 season. Please see the other comments about why Pederson’s WAR is being overestimated while Harvey’s is being underestimated.
For the Phillies and the Braves, a 2 WAR difference is negligible – whether they lose 95 or 97 games isn’t going to change a lot, except maybe draft order.
The real question is what’s the difference between 85 and 87 wins, or 87 and 89 wins. It’s the difference between going home or making the wildcard, or making the wildcard and winning the division. These extra wins for a team on the cusp carry far more value than ordinary wins.
Also, how much is every playoff win or playoff series win worth? What do you expect Pederson’s playoff WAR to be – a minus? A frontline pitcher who starts playoff games and one that you would feel comfortable throwing in a one game wildcard playoff has almost off the charts value.
As far as trades go, next year – if all the dominoes fall correctly, if Wheeler has a healthy season and deGrom, Matz, and Syndergaard stay healthy, and the Mets determine it’s time to trade Harvey, they are going to find a contender that’s desperate for that final piece and make them pay through the nose for it (Think Detroit, Boston, NYY, CAA, SF etc and think greater haul than the Shelby Miller or Craig Kimbrel trades). For a team like the Dodgers, it’s going to start with at least 2 of their top 4 prospects and another in the top 10 as just the starting point.
Ummmmmmmmmmmmmm… I don’t think I have EVER heard of a stupider statement!!! Harvey is one of the BEST young pitchers in the game… and Pederson SUCKS!!! He is such an easy strikeout…
simply put, the Mets will not, under any realistic circumstances, trade Harvey this off-season.
Joc hit .210 over his first full season. The writer of this article must be a Dodgers fan and/or a nincompoop.
I love Harvey and I really lie Pedersen. I had hoped that the Mets traded for him s couple of years ago. But the onle way I would do the trade is that they would gave to include Seager. Pederson an Seager fir Harvey I do the desl in a Minute.
I’ve gotta say, I’m loving the people citing ERA, batting average, and hitter strikeouts as reasons for why someone is so good and someone is so bad. It’s like all of the progress we’ve made over the last 10 years is gone in an instant, lol.