Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/18/15

December 18, 2015

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s do what we always do!

9:06	spoiler: darth is lukes dad

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: let’s get this all out of our systems now

9:06	Owen S.: How old are you? At what age do you believe you were the unhappiest you’ve ever been? The happiest? I am 28 and this is the worst year of my life.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: 30! 26! 24! good luck!

9:07	David: What would fair value be in exchange for Ender Inciarte? Cubs seem like a natural fit, but the Braves are already full in their OF corners. Marlins also make sense to some degree.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I know this is covering old ground but I really do think you could get close to Inciarte with Soler. I might be over-interpreting the Braves’ type of player — maybe they just don’t love Soler — but he’s got crazy tools and they could just move Olivera back to third base or something

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: So Soler plus a half-decent asset, maybe. Inciarte will never be better than he is today. Soler’s best days ought to be ahead of him. The timelines work out

9:09	Mike: Jeff – I’m not sure about Star Wars, but would you like to help me use ‘the force’ the get Joey Votto on the Jays? Jays offer Smoak, Rowdy Tellez and salary relief.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Well that package isn’t going to do anything

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: But speaking more generally, there was a much greater chance of Votto going to Toronto under the old front office

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: This new one has different priorities

9:10

Hank G.: Last week you seemed to be virtually certain that Bryce Harper will be leaving Washington once he becomes a free agent. Is this because you don’t believe that Washington will make a competitive offer, or do you know of other underlying issues that make Harper less likely to re-sign with the Nats?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: It’s nothing personal or anything. Harper likes DC just fine and DC obviously likes him back. But out of what conversations I’ve had I’ve been led to believe the Nationals already basically see him as a goner

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is impossible and the whole world could change in three years but the Nationals are presumably looking forward and realizing they won’t be the team with the high bid

9:11	The Dude: Is “Secret Weapon” a new regular feature? I really enjoy them!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t intended that way — just wanted to write about Givens and Zych — but I’d be lying if I said I weren’t thinking about this now. There’s gotta be more! I’m interested.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: (also, thank you!)

9:13	PieTraynee: How do you feel about the Rogers trade for Pittsburgh? Do you see him getting the bulk of playing time at first in the early going?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: To be completely honest, I haven’t given this more than 30 seconds of thought yet, so maybe I’m missing something, but I get the sense the Pirates aren’t finished. I think Rogers ends up in a job share

9:16	Derek Carr: So, with the A’s missing on Bartolo, how serious are they on Kazmir? They’re still at ~$20MM below payroll from last year, which means Kaz or Maeda could be on the table.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: My guess at the probability is that Kazmir prices himself out of the A’s reach. If the market has shown anything it’s that teams don’t worry too much about rough second halves where there’s a track record of success

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t mean no Kazmir, and doesn’t mean no Maeda, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s tried for, say, Fister as a reclamation. And the most interesting one-year option might be Cliff Lee, not that I think Lee would be all for that

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Lee wants to guide himself toward a contender but if he signed with Oakland, he might at least get a chance to get traded somewhere nice in July

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: (I wouldn’t count on this)

9:18	Vic: What do you expect from deGrom going forward? A top 10 SP? Do you think 2015 will go down as his career year?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: At some point I think he’ll run about the same numbers over 220 innings instead of 190

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: What’s not to love? He’s amazing

9:21	Vic: Will Buxton see 150+ MLB games barring injury in 2016? What will they look like?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: That’s too many games, so, no. But he should play a lot when he’s healthy, and he’s going to have super volatile month-to-month stats. His August K% should look miles better than his April K%

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I want to say “2-win player” but Buxton is going to be a really interesting 2-win player

9:22	Sirras: Jeff Jeff he’s our man! If he can’t do it, nobody can save us from the volcanos!

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: No one can save you from the volcanoes.

9:23	Guest: Out of the remaining 1B free agents, who would you sign if you’re looking for trade upside in July? Carter since he’s only 29 probably, right?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce

9:24	Derek Carr: What would the framework of a Billy Butler / ARod trade look like?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: the walls of a mental hospital

9:24	Bork: Would the Dodgers really sell a lot of the farm for Chris Archer? It seems extremely reactive.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Well Archer is under control forever, so it would be more like a consolidation of some of the farm. They’re not going to trade a bunch for two years of a guy but Archer would be a long-term get. They can only hope their prospects turn into someone like him

9:26	Matt: If you’re the Braves…Why not make a run at Longoria or Braun? They would be excellent compliments to Freeman, and form a great 3-4 punch to build around.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Braves aren’t looking to build around players who are 30+ years old

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Especially when they know they’re going to be pretty bad in 2016

9:29

Matty Bum: With all the flak AZ is catching, is it fair to compare the Samardzija trade (A’s/White Sox) to the Miller trade? Shark was a better pitcher at the time, but it was for only one year. The haul he brought back (Semien/Phegley/Bassitt/Ravelo) is pretty much the definition of “not flashy,” but would it really be surprising if that set of players outperformed the Braves’ haul over their cost controlled years?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: To be sure, the Braves’ haul could under-perform, and I do think the A’s haul for Samardzija has been a bit underrated. That’s probably because of what they traded to get him in the first place. But the White Sox didn’t sell an Inciarte. They didn’t sell a Swanson. They sold peak-average players, while the Braves got some potential impact.

9:31	lunch: really, the highlight of the offseason has been bartolo colon staying in the national league. if we don’t get to see bartolo hit, what’s the point of anything, really?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes, when I get really deep into my own brain, I wonder why we try to analyze anything when all anyone really wants out of baseball is for Bartolo Colon to try to bat three times

9:32	pirates hurdles: So, Jason Rogers, crazy to think he could hold the fort down until Josh Bell? The Bucs have greater need in the rotation.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I think they could still cheaply sign a 1B and an SP. And in true Pirates fashion, those players would work out all right

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Pirates are no longer interested in Dae-ho Lee but he’s an option who would cost just a few million

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Like Rogers, though, Lee is right-handed

9:34	Justin: For Christmas, I got you Iwakuma for another couple years. YOU’RE WELCOME.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday was awesome

9:34	Sean C: Hey, I wrote a silly thing about Jorge and the caht bar and I compliment you in it so idk if you should read it but maybe if you wanted to… http://www.banishedtothepen.com/a-mystery-jorge-posada-and-the-fangraphs-search-bar/

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Currently overtaken by Devon White!

9:35	Al: How many elite baseball players would you need to add to an otherwise average baseball team to match the effect of adding LeBron James to an otherwise average basketball team?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head: 3-4? I don’t remember LeBron’s win value. The worst part is I’ve written about this

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Might be more like 4-5

9:36	Al: Please recommend one work of fiction and one work of non-fiction. And have a great holiday!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Cannibal! The Musical, and Into The Silence

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: the former is pseudo-fiction

9:38	Aron: How do you see the Mariners roster shaking out now, assuming everyone is healthy going into the season?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: I think the only real big issue is settling on a No. 5 starter between Paxton and Karns. And even there, it’s not like you’re stuck with the decision you make at the end of March. Depth is good to have. But with Iwakuma falling into the Mariners’ lap, they *do* have trade options to explore if they’re interested. Could be some chance they re-visit talks for Ozuna

9:39	j6takish: Jeff, in 5 years which current “hot” sabremetric issue will we look back on how wrong we were? Which current idea do you have the least amount of faith in?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: My gut tells me we’re missing something about framing. Maybe that’s not very important. And we’re overdue for a defensive overhaul. Shifts just do crazy things to the numbers and UZR and DRS have too many disagreements for the public to accept. When we have better defensive stats, the current defensive stats could look super primitive

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: At some point I think we’ll also be less dismissive of legitimate hot streaks and slumps

9:41	Darragh: Think the Blue Jays land one of the top relievers? They were reportedly close on Petit, which makes me think they at least want to get someone in that range.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: “top relievers” and “Petit” in the same comment!

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, I do think the do something to replace Hendriks

9:42	The Dude: Do you tend to trust Steamer of ZiPS more?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: It’s like UZR and DRS to me — I’m somewhere around 50/50 or 55/45. I look forward to having them both.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I like Steamer more, but mostly because we have it all on the site already, unlike ZiPS, which we have to wait for

9:42	Cody: With Iwakuma resigned, do you think the M’s can compete in the AL West?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not favorites, but maybe they’re something like 5 wins off, which means they’re in the mix

9:43	Meowmix: Will the skill of catcher framing become obsolete soon?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Obsolete, no, but I think we’ll see decreasing gaps between the best and the worst in the league

9:43	Matty Bum: How did you get started backpacking? I am an experienced car camper but have never backpacked. I’m considering starting solo on a very easy trip, something like 5 miles out and back for 1 night. Good idea?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Definitely, start small just to get some experience. My first almost-backpack was overnighting on the way up Mt Adams. Taught me a lot about what gear I like and what gear I don’t. From there things happened quickly, and when we booked a trip to Patagonia I realized I needed to learn how to backpack *well* within a matter of months. It’s nice to feel some deadline pressure

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: As with anything, you learn fast at the start. Do it once and you’ll be amazed how much easier it is the second time. I can’t wait to resume

9:45	Steve: If your name was Dansby would you go by Dansby or just Dan?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: What’s my last name? If it’s Swanson, I go by Dansby. If it’s Fartenheimer, I change the Fartenheimer part

9:48	Al: Stronger free agent class this offseason? MLB Starting Pitching or Analytically Inclined Baseball Writers* *for the purposes of this question please ignore contractual obligations to a “parent” company if a writers “niche” site/company folded

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The starting pitchers have more leverage

9:49	Matt: Is Teheran, Mallex Smith, Hector Olivera, and a SP prospect (maybe Tyrell Jenkins?) a good enough package to start a George Springer conversation?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt it. And I don’t think the Astros are looking to add a bunch of pieces — like the Dodgers, if anything they want to consolidate

9:49	Nick: Was the Sox offseason last year really that bad? Laroche and Melky obviously didn’t play well (Robertson was good), but none were big contracts and they were projected to be worth their contract at the time. I don’t know my point here, but do you have thoughts on this.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Sox had a terrible offseason. I just think they were over-ambitious. They needed too much help to gather in just a few months and the lack of depth was exposed

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: And things like the Samardzija trade — that depleted a decent amount of depth for one year of a guy. That wasn’t wonderful, but once they committed themselves to going for it it’s where they were led

9:51	Edgar belongs in the HOF: Any chance Iwakuma lands with the Ms after the physical

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell if you’re chatting from the past but if so, I have good news!

9:51	Gary: Just read your Lucroy piece, what would the Rangers have to give up? I assume any of Gallo/Mazara/Brinson is too rich, and Profar probably not enough. What about Odor?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Profar would actually be a fascinating centerpiece. Volatile asset going one way, volatile asset going the other. Both teams would be worried they’re selling low. If the Rangers agreed to include Profar, then in theory I don’t think they’d need to add all that much more. Moderately talented SP?

9:54	Sandy Kazmir: Do you think it is responsible to project Corey Seager as if he were the 13th best SS since 1970 over the ages of 21-27?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There used to be a lot of bad shortstops

9:55	Joe: Is there a good proxy for RAR like there is for WAR? For instance, 2 WAR= Average-ish, 3 WAR=Good player, etc.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: RAR is just WAR * 9 or 10. See the penultimate column here http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

9:56	Jimmy: Fun read on Zych! What role do you think he plays in best/worst/most realistic scenarios?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Right now he’s slotted to fight for the 7th-inning role with Scribner. That changes if Zych pitches well and if Cishek continues to struggle. Because of Zych’s power stuff, he could rise in the ranks faster than Scribner, who might always make his manager nervous

9:56	The Boat: Excited that the Mariners got Kuma back?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: That was a stunning turn of events. Reminiscent of Aaron Sele

9:57	Ed: Now that Kuma is back in Seattle where he belongs, do the M’s try to move an extra starter (Paxton)? Could they reopen talks with the Marlins for Ozuna perhaps?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Noted earlier that’s a possibility, but it could be the Mariners are just happy to have depth. They can send a starter to Tacoma, and that starter won’t be thrilled about it, but that same starter will be needed at some point

9:58	The Boat: Will Votto play out his whole career in Cincy? Seems like he doesn’t want to leave…

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot of time to go. I don’t think he finishes there. I just think he spends 2016 there.

9:58	j6takish: Votto to the Astros, book it

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: There’s an option. Maybe for a year from now

9:59	GSon: What’s more important to the Cubs.. getting a CF so that Jason Heyward can stay in RF or getting a # 1/# 2 SP for their rotation?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how they actually feel about Arrieta, but if they landed someone like Inciarte, that’s almost like bringing in a pitcher anyhow because of the defensive improvement