Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/18/15

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s do what we always do!

9:06
spoiler: darth is lukes dad

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: let’s get this all out of our systems now

9:06
Owen S.: How old are you? At what age do you believe you were the unhappiest you’ve ever been? The happiest? I am 28 and this is the worst year of my life.

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: 30! 26! 24! good luck!

9:07
David: What would fair value be in exchange for Ender Inciarte? Cubs seem like a natural fit, but the Braves are already full in their OF corners. Marlins also make sense to some degree.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I know this is covering old ground but I really do think you could get close to Inciarte with Soler. I might be over-interpreting the Braves’ type of player — maybe they just don’t love Soler — but he’s got crazy tools and they could just move Olivera back to third base or something

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: So Soler plus a half-decent asset, maybe. Inciarte will never be better than he is today. Soler’s best days ought to be ahead of him. The timelines work out

9:09
Mike: Jeff – I’m not sure about Star Wars, but would you like to help me use ‘the force’ the get Joey Votto on the Jays? Jays offer Smoak, Rowdy Tellez and salary relief.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Well that package isn’t going to do anything

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: But speaking more generally, there was a much greater chance of Votto going to Toronto under the old front office

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: This new one has different priorities

9:10
Hank G.: Last week you seemed to be virtually certain that Bryce Harper will be leaving Washington once he becomes a free agent. Is this because you don’t believe that Washington will make a competitive offer, or do you know of other underlying issues that make Harper less likely to re-sign with the Nats?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: It’s nothing personal or anything. Harper likes DC just fine and DC obviously likes him back. But out of what conversations I’ve had I’ve been led to believe the Nationals already basically see him as a goner

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is impossible and the whole world could change in three years but the Nationals are presumably looking forward and realizing they won’t be the team with the high bid

9:11
The Dude: Is “Secret Weapon” a new regular feature? I really enjoy them!

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Wasn’t intended that way — just wanted to write about Givens and Zych — but I’d be lying if I said I weren’t thinking about this now. There’s gotta be more! I’m interested.

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: (also, thank you!)

9:13
PieTraynee: How do you feel about the Rogers trade for Pittsburgh? Do you see him getting the bulk of playing time at first in the early going?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: To be completely honest, I haven’t given this more than 30 seconds of thought yet, so maybe I’m missing something, but I get the sense the Pirates aren’t finished. I think Rogers ends up in a job share

9:16
Derek Carr: So, with the A’s missing on Bartolo, how serious are they on Kazmir? They’re still at ~$20MM below payroll from last year, which means Kaz or Maeda could be on the table.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: My guess at the probability is that Kazmir prices himself out of the A’s reach. If the market has shown anything it’s that teams don’t worry too much about rough second halves where there’s a track record of success

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t mean no Kazmir, and doesn’t mean no Maeda, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the A’s tried for, say, Fister as a reclamation. And the most interesting one-year option might be Cliff Lee, not that I think Lee would be all for that

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Lee wants to guide himself toward a contender but if he signed with Oakland, he might at least get a chance to get traded somewhere nice in July

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: (I wouldn’t count on this)

9:18
Vic: What do you expect from deGrom going forward? A top 10 SP? Do you think 2015 will go down as his career year?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: At some point I think he’ll run about the same numbers over 220 innings instead of 190

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: What’s not to love? He’s amazing

9:21
Vic: Will Buxton see 150+ MLB games barring injury in 2016? What will they look like?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: That’s too many games, so, no. But he should play a lot when he’s healthy, and he’s going to have super volatile month-to-month stats. His August K% should look miles better than his April K%

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I want to say “2-win player” but Buxton is going to be a really interesting 2-win player

9:22
Sirras: Jeff Jeff he’s our man! If he can’t do it, nobody can save us from the volcanos!

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: No one can save you from the volcanoes.

9:23
Guest: Out of the remaining 1B free agents, who would you sign if you’re looking for trade upside in July? Carter since he’s only 29 probably, right?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce

9:24
Derek Carr: What would the framework of a Billy Butler / ARod trade look like?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: the walls of a mental hospital

9:24
Bork: Would the Dodgers really sell a lot of the farm for Chris Archer? It seems extremely reactive.

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Well Archer is under control forever, so it would be more like a consolidation of some of the farm. They’re not going to trade a bunch for two years of a guy but Archer would be a long-term get. They can only *hope* their prospects turn into someone like him

9:26
Matt: If you’re the Braves…Why not make a run at Longoria or Braun? They would be excellent compliments to Freeman, and form a great 3-4 punch to build around.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: The Braves aren’t looking to build around players who are 30+ years old

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Especially when they know they’re going to be pretty bad in 2016

9:29
Matty Bum: With all the flak AZ is catching, is it fair to compare the Samardzija trade (A’s/White Sox) to the Miller trade? Shark was a better pitcher at the time, but it was for only one year. The haul he brought back (Semien/Phegley/Bassitt/Ravelo) is pretty much the definition of “not flashy,” but would it really be surprising if that set of players outperformed the Braves’ haul over their cost controlled years?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: To be sure, the Braves’ haul could under-perform, and I do think the A’s haul for Samardzija has been a bit underrated. That’s probably because of what they traded to get him in the first place. But the White Sox didn’t sell an Inciarte. They didn’t sell a Swanson. They sold peak-average players, while the Braves got some potential impact.

9:31
lunch: really, the highlight of the offseason has been bartolo colon staying in the national league. if we don’t get to see bartolo hit, what’s the point of anything, really?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes, when I get really deep into my own brain, I wonder why we try to analyze anything when all anyone really wants out of baseball is for Bartolo Colon to try to bat three times

9:32
pirates hurdles: So, Jason Rogers, crazy to think he could hold the fort down until Josh Bell? The Bucs have greater need in the rotation.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think they could still cheaply sign a 1B and an SP. And in true Pirates fashion, those players would work out all right

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Pirates are no longer interested in Dae-ho Lee but he’s an option who would cost just a few million

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Like Rogers, though, Lee is right-handed

9:34
Justin: For Christmas, I got you Iwakuma for another couple years. YOU’RE WELCOME.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday was awesome

9:34
Sean C: Hey, I wrote a silly thing about Jorge and the caht bar and I compliment you in it so idk if you should read it but maybe if you wanted to… http://www.banishedtothepen.com/a-mystery-jorge-posada-and-the-fangraphs-search-bar/

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Currently overtaken by Devon White!

9:35
Al: How many elite baseball players would you need to add to an otherwise average baseball team to match the effect of adding LeBron James to an otherwise average basketball team?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head: 3-4? I don’t remember LeBron’s win value. The worst part is I’ve written about this

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Might be more like 4-5

9:36
Al: Please recommend one work of fiction and one work of non-fiction.

And have a great holiday!

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Cannibal! The Musical, and Into The Silence

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: the former is pseudo-fiction

9:38
Aron: How do you see the Mariners roster shaking out now, assuming everyone is healthy going into the season?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: I think the only real big issue is settling on a No. 5 starter between Paxton and Karns. And even there, it’s not like you’re stuck with the decision you make at the end of March. Depth is good to have. But with Iwakuma falling into the Mariners’ lap, they *do* have trade options to explore if they’re interested. Could be some chance they re-visit talks for Ozuna

9:39
j6takish: Jeff, in 5 years which current “hot” sabremetric issue will we look back on how wrong we were? Which current idea do you have the least amount of faith in?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: My gut tells me we’re missing something about framing. Maybe that’s not very important. And we’re overdue for a defensive overhaul. Shifts just do crazy things to the numbers and UZR and DRS have too many disagreements for the public to accept. When we have better defensive stats, the current defensive stats could look super primitive

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: At some point I think we’ll also be less dismissive of legitimate hot streaks and slumps

9:41
Darragh: Think the Blue Jays land one of the top relievers? They were reportedly close on Petit, which makes me think they at least want to get someone in that range.

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: “top relievers” and “Petit” in the same comment!

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, I do think the do something to replace Hendriks

9:42
The Dude: Do you tend to trust Steamer of ZiPS more?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: It’s like UZR and DRS to me — I’m somewhere around 50/50 or 55/45. I look forward to having them both.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I *like* Steamer more, but mostly because we have it all on the site already, unlike ZiPS, which we have to wait for

9:42
Cody: With Iwakuma resigned, do you think the M’s can compete in the AL West?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: They’re not favorites, but maybe they’re something like 5 wins off, which means they’re in the mix

9:43
Meowmix: Will the skill of catcher framing become obsolete soon?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Obsolete, no, but I think we’ll see decreasing gaps between the best and the worst in the league

9:43
Matty Bum: How did you get started backpacking? I am an experienced car camper but have never backpacked. I’m considering starting solo on a very easy trip, something like 5 miles out and back for 1 night. Good idea?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely, start small just to get some experience. My first almost-backpack was overnighting on the way up Mt Adams. Taught me a lot about what gear I like and what gear I don’t. From there things happened quickly, and when we booked a trip to Patagonia I realized I needed to learn how to backpack *well* within a matter of months. It’s nice to feel some deadline pressure

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: As with anything, you learn fast at the start. Do it once and you’ll be amazed how much easier it is the second time. I can’t wait to resume

9:45
Steve: If your name was Dansby would you go by Dansby or just Dan?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: What’s my last name? If it’s Swanson, I go by Dansby. If it’s Fartenheimer, I change the Fartenheimer part

9:48
Al: Stronger free agent class this offseason?

MLB Starting Pitching
or
Analytically Inclined Baseball Writers*

*for the purposes of this question please ignore contractual obligations to a “parent” company if a writers “niche” site/company folded

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: The starting pitchers have more leverage

9:49
Matt: Is Teheran, Mallex Smith, Hector Olivera, and a SP prospect (maybe Tyrell Jenkins?) a good enough package to start a George Springer conversation?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I doubt it. And I don’t think the Astros are looking to add a bunch of pieces — like the Dodgers, if anything they want to consolidate

9:49
Nick: Was the Sox offseason last year really that bad? Laroche and Melky obviously didn’t play well (Robertson was good), but none were big contracts and they were projected to be worth their contract at the time. I don’t know my point here, but do you have thoughts on this.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Sox had a terrible offseason. I just think they were over-ambitious. They needed too much help to gather in just a few months and the lack of depth was exposed

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: And things like the Samardzija trade — that depleted a decent amount of depth for one year of a guy. That wasn’t wonderful, but once they committed themselves to going for it it’s where they were led

9:51
Edgar belongs in the HOF: Any chance Iwakuma lands with the Ms after the physical

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell if you’re chatting from the past but if so, I have good news!

9:51
Gary: Just read your Lucroy piece, what would the Rangers have to give up? I assume any of Gallo/Mazara/Brinson is too rich, and Profar probably not enough. What about Odor?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Profar would actually be a fascinating centerpiece. Volatile asset going one way, volatile asset going the other. Both teams would be worried they’re selling low. If the Rangers agreed to include Profar, then in theory I don’t think they’d need to add all that much more. Moderately talented SP?

9:54
Sandy Kazmir: Do you think it is responsible to project Corey Seager as if he were the 13th best SS since 1970 over the ages of 21-27?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: There used to be a lot of bad shortstops

9:55
Joe: Is there a good proxy for RAR like there is for WAR? For instance, 2 WAR= Average-ish, 3 WAR=Good player, etc.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: RAR is just WAR * 9 or 10. See the penultimate column here http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn

9:56
Jimmy: Fun read on Zych! What role do you think he plays in best/worst/most realistic scenarios?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Right now he’s slotted to fight for the 7th-inning role with Scribner. That changes if Zych pitches well and if Cishek continues to struggle. Because of Zych’s power stuff, he could rise in the ranks faster than Scribner, who might always make his manager nervous

9:56
The Boat: Excited that the Mariners got Kuma back?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: That was a stunning turn of events. Reminiscent of Aaron Sele

9:57
Ed: Now that Kuma is back in Seattle where he belongs, do the M’s try to move an extra starter (Paxton)? Could they reopen talks with the Marlins for Ozuna perhaps?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Noted earlier that’s a possibility, but it could be the Mariners are just happy to have depth. They can send a starter to Tacoma, and that starter won’t be thrilled about it, but that same starter will be needed at some point

9:58
The Boat: Will Votto play out his whole career in Cincy? Seems like he doesn’t want to leave…

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot of time to go. I don’t think he finishes there. I just think he spends 2016 there.

9:58
j6takish: Votto to the Astros, book it

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: There’s an option. Maybe for a year from now

9:59
GSon: What’s more important to the Cubs.. getting a CF so that Jason Heyward can stay in RF or getting a # 1/# 2 SP for their rotation?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how they actually feel about Arrieta, but if they landed someone like Inciarte, that’s almost like bringing in a pitcher anyhow because of the defensive improvement

10:00
Bork: What would you say the new Jays front office priorities are? And please don’t say the bottom $ 🙁

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Maximizing value

10:00
Sirras: Mets are not aiming for Votto. This is not a trade scenario that would happen. That said, how good would Votto look on that Mets team? (Yes, I know Votto would look good on 30 teams)

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the only team he’d look weird on is the Cubs

10:01
Chad: The Nats traded for someone that eventually choked Harper. That can’t be a good sign.

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Would be worse if they traded for someone who had already choked Harper

10:01
Luke: Have the Cubs soured on Soler or is he just the best chip to help the Cubs in the near term?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Valuable chip, and he’s the sort of guy who might have more appeal to a different front office. I’m not sure how much the Cubs love the Soler/Baez boom-or-bust types.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: No harm in exploring the market to see if anyone really loves those skills more than most

10:02
Ben: Dipoto said things were pretty much wrapped up and then ended up signing Iwakuma. Do you think we’ll see more unexpected moves, or was this a very unique set of circumstances that led to this

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Unique. Dipoto meant what he said but he never expected that Iwakuma would fail his physical. Once that happened, Dipoto got the go-ahead from ownership to get re-involved

10:03
Matty Bum: I’m an A’s fan and others who follow the team seem to be upset they missed out on Hyun-Soo Kim. Just eyeballing numbers and looking at what Kang did, it *seems* like he should be a steal at that price. Are scouting departments seeing something that still gives them pause about players making the transition from KBO? Or is it specific to this player?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, we’ve had Kang and that’s it. There’s still a ton of uncertainty because Eric Thames, Yamaico Navarro, and Andy Marte have dominated the KBO after washing out here. One player isn’t going to completely change everyone’s mind

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Even the Orioles aren’t sure if Kim’s bat will play, and they don’t see him as a quality defender. This is a small-scale risk

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure what Oakland’s interest level was, but maybe Kim just preferred the Baltimore offer. Clearer path to regular playing time. Friendlier park. And the Orioles were willing to just have Kim for two years, and maybe the A’s wanted more control

10:06
Massy: Should we look at the Miley trade any differently after the Iwakuma signing?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: How do you mean? This wasn’t the plan.

10:07
The Boat: Will Kris Bryant top his 6 WAR rookie season in 2016?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I say he ends up just short

10:08
Matt: Cargo to Nats for Cole, Fedde, and Robles. Do the Nats go for it?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Think they’d prefer someone more CF-capable

10:09
cards fan here: Sullivan, without knowing precisely what the future is, would you say it’s time for my fellow fans to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want to push my tastes on you, but from where I sit, yes, absolutely

10:10
Brendon: Dave Stewart said that he checked with Cleveland and that the Miller package wouldn’t have netted them Salazar let alone Carrasco or more like many are saying they should have gotten. Have prices for controlled SP just skyrocketed?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: They have, but, Salazar has five years of control, and Miller has three. Salazar just struck out more than a batter an inning in the American League; Miller didn’t come close, in the National League

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think if they pushed it, Arizona and Cleveland could’ve arrived at an agreement. But Swanson would’ve been of less interest to the Indians, on account of Lindor

10:12
jay: Do you think the Brewers are in a tough spot with possible trade of Lucroy? Would you say that it’s complicated?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Incredibly complicated!

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I heard about some offers they proposed in Nashville. Just laughably over the top

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Not even good starts to negotiations. More off-putting

10:13
Gary: How much surplus value does Votto have? Could the Astros go for him?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Votto definitely has value in this market, after the season he just had. Don’t know if he’d want to go to Houston.

10:15
Guest: justin turner’s story sounds a lot like jose bautista’s to me: journey man infielder who gets some good advice from a veteran and suddenly begins to tear the cover off the ball. thoughts on him for next year?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’s why the Dodgers didn’t need to be the team picking up Frazier. He’s easy to underrate, but I think he’s an above-average player provided he’s got his legs underneath him

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I love the stories where players improve because they got tips from other players

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I was told after the post yesterday that Tony Zych’s breaking ball leaped forward in 2015 after he got some spring-training advice from Jake Arrieta

10:18
JKD: The Reds and Nats apparently are in agreement on a trade for Brandon Phillips, who remains a useful if projected-for-slightly-below-average player. I like it fine – relying on Turner and Difo to hold down one of the middle infield positions this year *could* work, but you’d also like to give them both a little more seasoning. But – given that Phillips’ $27M salary (plus, apparently, deferred payments) is essentially market rate for where his talent is (maybe a little overpay, if you listen to Steamer), what are the Nats really going to give up for him? B-level pitching prospect?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know specifics, but I’d be surprised if the Nationals were paying a big price. Obviously the Reds won’t come away empty-handed, but this won’t take players from the top of the Nationals’ prospect list

10:20
Oger: Between Swanson & Albies, whose better defensively? Who ends up moving to 2B if they both pan out and come up around the same time?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I *think* Albies is considered superior defensively. Swanson will arrive first and he’ll get first crack at SS, but Albies could make him move before too long

10:21
Dan: Are you happy with Dipoto?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: It’s never 100% yes with anyone, but it’s like 75/25

10:22
The Boat: Kelly Johnson and Pittsburgh are a match made in heaven, right? Veteran infielder, World Series experience, on a contending team for a one-year commitment, could play 2B and platoon at 1B, hits from the left side (which the Pirates sorely need).

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Pirates’ version of heaven includes the acquisition of Kelly Johnson, but you could see that as something happening toward the end of January. Have to see what else they think about doing to address 1B, if they aren’t stopping at Rogers

10:23
guest: Should the Mariners be concerned that Iwakuma failed his physical with the Dodgers?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Well it’s not *good* news, but the Mariners had given Iwakuma an exit physical and then they offered him two years and $30 million. So they have a sense of what they’re doing

10:25
Chad: Scott Kazmir has a track record of anything besides injuries?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: 92 starts the last three years!

10:25
El Chapo: I know on paper the Cubs are the best team. But that is assuming the most fortuitous scenario right? For as much upside as they have their risk of regression, injury and last year being peak performances for a lot of their guys last year right? Is it 50/50 they are as good as their potential?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: On paper they’re the best team because right now they’re projected as the best team and the projections, at least in theory, find the 50/50 spot, not the most fortuitous scenario

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Now you can argue about the projections themselves if you want, and I won’t stop you, but even if I don’t think it’s 100% true the Cubs are the best, I think it’s more than 50% true

10:26
Guest: you mentioned the jays’ front office has changed priorities since anthopoulos’ regime – can you expand on this?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s just say they’re less aggressive and more risk-averse

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: “Priorities” was probably the wrong word. It’s just a different approach

10:27
Joe D: It seems like the moves that Dipoto has completed are exactly the style that Dave, Tony, and yourself have wanted the M’s to go toward. Yet, you also seemed underwhelmed with the team as it stands. Why?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Well it’s just not a great baseball team. But that isn’t Dipoto’s fault. He’s done a lot of good

10:28
Larry Bernandez: Cliff Lee to LAD make most sense?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much injury risk you can have on one pitching staff

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Without doubt the Dodgers would be interested, though. Lee is probably in a position where he can be picky with geography if he likes

10:29
JKD: If the Nats are pretty convinced Harper is gone after ’18, it does present a pretty fascinating conversation about value. They want to contend this year, and can. Probably next year too. So at what point do you *think* about trading him – or is he so valuable that you can’t possibly get enough in return to justify moving him? Or is this a wait-and-see?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I think you just keep him and deal with the consequences of his exit. They’ll be good for the three years, and I don’t think another team would offer what it would take, because everybody knows Harper is going to be a free agent.

10:30
Soler: the Cubs are underselling me. Me for Inciarte? Com’on. That’s like selling Vlad Guerriero for someone like Austin Jackson. Different era, but the ceilings are so different.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Different ceilings, absolutely. On the other hand, Inciarte has been worth 6.1 WAR, and Soler has been worth 0.8

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Evaluating players by ceilings is an easy way to get screwed. You have to focus mostly on what’s actually reasonable to expect

10:31
El Chapo: Are we in a golden age of data on post TJ SP’s with having the ability to understand how durable these guys can be?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: It’s like the one benefit of all the surgeries. We’ll know plenty more 5-10 years from now

10:34
majordanby: worst free agent decision made by a team so far?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Not easy. Off the top of my head, the Tigers probably didn’t need to hurry to give Mike Pelfrey two guarantee years

10:34
Soler: Prediction for Kyle Hendrick? My buddie seems to think that he’s the 2nd coming of Greg Maddux

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I predict he is not the second coming of Greg Maddux

10:35
Phil: The Baltimore Sun has quoted Angelos saying that the $150M was only for Davis and he will not necessarily spend that money elsewhere on “overpriced” FA’s which only drag the cost of baseball away from the proletariat (I am paraphrasing). How can this be perceived as anything other than admitting the money is there but not to be spent to better the team unless their name is Chris Davis? Obviously all owners can “afford” a lot and they spend within certain means and the O’s budget like the size of market they are, but this seems a silly strategy. Doesn’t this embolden Boras if he knows it is all or nothing?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: It works to set a limit, and it keeps people from thinking the Orioles will just spend that money regardless. I’ve definitely gotten the sense the Davis talks are coming from ownership interest — Angelos likes him plenty — and the Orioles aren’t sure who they’d even be bidding against. This is a scattered answer and for that I’m sorry

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: If the Orioles miss out on Davis they’ll spend some of that money to plug the holes they still have. But I think it means they wouldn’t turn their attention to one of the premium corner outfielders

10:38
The Boat: Twins get any real relief pitching this winter?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll add to it, and it’ll be done quietly, and it’ll be underwhelming

10:40
Currywurst: How much MLB playing time does Max Kepler get next year

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s go with 150-200 PA, but there’s room for a lot more if they see regression in the corners

10:42
Joe Jack: How about Lucroy to the Twins for a package centered around Kepler?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much the Twins want to push chips forward to win in the next two years, but if they’re feeling emboldened, Lucroy is a wonderful fit

10:43
Steve: Will Bruce soon follow BP & Frazier out the door?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta think so. Wide open opportunity in Anaheim

10:43
DLowe: Hey Jeff – do you expect Giles to close in Houston? How many saves do you think he will get, with that good team and excellent rotation?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll close. He’ll get however many saves closers tend to get on good teams

10:45
Kevin: Hey Jeff, I go to college in the San Jose area and have recently become interested in hiking. Have you ever hiked in the area and, if so, do you have any recommendations?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Pinnacles is only an hour and a half away. I’m sure I don’t need to tell you about Yosemite but that’s usually a zoo. For a quieter time, you could head toward Bishop/Long Valley (caldera)

10:46
Tyler: I really want, and I’m not a rangers fan, for Profar to become the best out of the young shortstops rn, just because I think the story would be great. What are we looking at a 2% chance of that happening?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: That sounds about right. There are so many freaking good young shortstops right now

10:47
the farm: My daughter will study volcanoes (and other topics) in a Stanford seminar next summer in Pozzuoli, Italy. What do you know about volcanoes in that region?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably the most at-risk region in the entire world

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone knows about Vesuvius, but there’s a volcanic field just west, and there are millions of people on the ground

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: look up Campi Flegrei if you’re feeling curious

10:49
Guest: So what would be fair for Lucroy given all the uncertainties today? Maybe a 50-100 prospect plus a couple low-level pitching fliers?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: More than that, I think — perhaps something headlined by a really good pitching prospect. But now I love the idea of Profar proposed earlier

10:49
The Boat: Do the Orioles need one or two more OF? Who do you see them targeting?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: They still have another hole. I could see them just bringing Parra back

10:50
majordanby: “The Braves aren’t looking to build around players who are 30+ years old” – why did they sign markakis? what was that all about?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody knows

10:50
Jim: So is Ozuna sticking around MIA? Or do you think Loria caves and gets a less than frontline SP for him?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: At this point they might choose to let Ozuna try to rebuild value in the first half. I don’t think they got the offers they were looking for

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they re-visit after some of these FA outfielders sign

10:50
20longyears: If you were GM of the Pirates, which starting pitcher would you sign?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Fister

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Masterson in the bullpen or something

10:51
Vic: Any best guess on where Cespedes lands? Haven’t heard much rumbling about him.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Like Dave, now I’m just thinking he goes back to Detroit

10:51
Milpool: What do the Dodgers do about the rotation now?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I can see a fit for one of the TB guys if those front offices can try not to be suspicious of one another

10:52
Guest: How’d the O’s get Kim so cheap? Is he THAT much of a risk?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Low upside. Not a skilled defender and he won’t hit for a lot of power. But this is still *too* cheap, implying over-cautious behavior from MLB

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: But think about the cheap salaries Aoki has received. Teams just aren’t wild about low-upside starters I guess

10:53
george: Warren: Dave Cameron proposed Seager, Montas, Barnes and Guerrero for Archer and McGee. Fair?
Klaw: Awful for the Rays.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Disagree with Law

10:53
Guest: Dobthe dodgers punt on 16 and go in on 17 with all their youth, or pay the tall order for Fernandez?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: They’re still set up to be perfectly competitive in 2016

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: They could do absolutely nothing and remain about as good as the Giants. Might even be better

10:54
The Boat: What is the current trade value of James Paxton? Is he worth more than a solid set-up reliever?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely worth more. Four years of control, lefty, throws hard

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling so I can accomplish some other stuff

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again…*not* next week! But at some point, at the same time. Until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/18/15 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Aunt Jessie
Guest
Aunt Jessie

Update on jotcast: it still makes my fan go nuts, and chrome hella agrees: https://www.evernote.com/l/ABN8n0cph61FmL1v1hcV3F4RP0VGUIzv9k0

(and fwiw, I’ve had that Cardinals tab open for 18 hours…)

Also, I still hate the fauxSX aqua gumdrop chat bubble theme. Go back to the first day when dave used it — the more compact chat was SOOO much better. I use OS X and love it, but this is a ridiculous look that didn’t age well: https://www.evernote.com/l/ABN0vv4eSkFIIbhGyKv4i6DWfp2vE0bK-uM

…. I typed another 100+ words while this was stalled, touch typing — last thing I saw rendered was “age well,” and I went on to type and touch type and touch type some more about how this is killing my high end 16gb ram laptop. During my touch typing, I got about 3 wait/kill dialogs from chrome before the thing shat itself and I lost whatever I was touch typing.

The tab/process got up to 3gigs according to chrome’s task manager before it crashed itself despite my telling it to wait.

These … are not GOOD things. Basically, at the moment, this remains unusable and I would take the old chat 1000 times over this crap (and as a software developer, know that I use “crap” as a technical term.)

… … I had to resort to typing this comment in TextEdit to even finish typing it before I could post it jotcast is killing my computer so bad.

Aunt Jessie
Guest
Aunt Jessie

Fuel on my fire: I haven’t really even been trying to live chat chat since about after the first week that you guys have been screwing with this jotcrap nonsense. It’s that bad for me. I’ve just been reading the archives.

That guy
Guest
That guy

Sounds like a you problem champ

JotCast
Guest

Hi Aunt Jessie,

We’re sorry to hear that you’re experiencing issues with the chat. Based upon the screenshot you’ve posted, it appears the problem with your browser is Shockwave Flash. JotCast does not use Flash, so if you continue experiencing this issue, I’d suggest you try using our full-screen mode, which can be activated by using the button with four arrows.

Thank you,
JotCast Support

AJ
Guest
AJ

I will try nuking flash for Dan’s chat on Monday, but this does still suggest the problem is related to fangraphs — ads, perhaps.

AJ
Guest
AJ

PS. But, this has been a persistent problem I have been having with jotcast based chats in chrome on os x, but not on other fg pages. I did intentionally leave the flash in that diagnostic window because that was the other major thing that was going on, but it wasn’t something that was going on before i loaded that chat page.

FWIW, here is current resource usage of the ARCHIVED version of the chat, not the live version: https://www.evernote.com/l/ABNMkO0mTxZBlIiKqRY8kHHffPRbtQG7p_U

AJ
Guest
AJ

The key reason I’m blaming jotcast and not flash for my laptop locking up / fan dying is more the CPU usage than the RAM usage, but even then, it was the “chat” tab, not the flash tab, that got up to 3 gb RAM used and 100% cpu. The flash process only hit like 1gb ram and … I dunno, but it was far less than 100% cpu.

AJ
Guest
AJ

Anyway, again, thank you for your reply. Keep an eye out for the comment’s on Dan’s chat on Monday. I will explicitly enable flashblock and go for a single tab open with just the chat on Monday and provide further feedback. My programmin’ bones tell me this is still something related to jotcast, but I will do due dilligence to file a better bug report in comments on Monday so that I don’t just come off sounding like a bitch.

Overseas Tech Help
Guest
Overseas Tech Help

Have you tried turning your computer off and on?

AJ
Guest
AJ

Haha, overseas. -.-

Ha.

I know my tech. I will do a proper isolated bug report on Monday or the next day I try to chat. JotCast, keep an eye out on comments after Monday in case I don’t wake up on time for Dan’s chat on Monday.