I’ll just be up front: some amount of bias will be present in this post. It’s unavoidable when you write a “sleeper team” post. I’m high on the Diamondbacks, and I’m not afraid to admit it.

Between radio hits and and my weekly chats here at FanGraphs, I’ve been asked plenty of times who my sleeper team is for 2016. Of course, it’s far too early to have any real idea what Opening Day rosters will look like four months from now, yet the questions remain. I did a spot for sports betting website BangTheBook recently and was read the World Series futures odds and asked to pick a potential breakout from the teams being given 60/1 odds or worse. Those teams are as follows:

• Diamondbacks, 60/1
• Reds, 60/1
• Marlins, 60/1
• Brewers, 60/1
• Athletics, 60/1
• Padres, 60/1
• Braves, 100/1
• Rockies 150/1
• Phillies, 300/1

Let’s pretend that we have to place a bet on one of these teams. The Phillies, Rockies and Braves are pretty clearly the three worst teams in baseball with no real hopes or plans for immediate contention. They’re out. Likewise, the Brewers, Reds and Marlins are all in the midst of some sort of rebuild that has them essentially out of the conversation for 2016. Nix them. That leaves the A’s, Padres and D’backs as sort of fringy teams with some interesting pieces that don’t seem to be totally committed to a rebuild.

The Padres won 74 games last year, and were a 71-win team by BaseRuns. Take away Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Ian Kennedy and Joaquin Benoit and you’re currently looking at one of the worst rosters in baseball. Scratch them off. The A’s are interesting because they won only 68 games but BaseRuns saw them as an 80-win team. The Diamondbacks are more interesting, though, because BaseRuns pegged them as 80-win team and they actually won 79. Pythag saw them as better than .500.

It’s not a sexy pick, and I’m certainly not here to argue that the Dbacks are one of the best teams in baseball, but a complaint you often hear about bold predictions is that they aren’t bold enough. Well, by nearly any measure we have a true-talent .500 team here, a team whose most notable free agent departure is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and a team whose future World Series odds are being lumped in with the likes of the Reds and Brewers. To me, that’s the definition of a sleeper. And there’s reason to believe the team could get better.
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Every winter, hundreds of nondescript minor leaguers become minor league free agents. Minor league free agency is what happens to a player who’s not on a 40-man roster after spending at least six years in the minor leagues. In other words, these players weren’t good enough to merit a callup after several years in the minors, and their organizations didn’t think they had enough potential to be worthy of a 40-man spot.

Some of these players latch on with new organizations; some of them don’t. But regardless, the overwhelming majority never have much big league success. A couple of years ago, Carson Cistulli found that only about 1% of minor league free agents produce at least 0.5 WAR the following season. Minor league free agents are the absolute bottom of the barrel when it comes to player transactions.

But there’s an occasional gem at the bottom of that barrel. Its not at all unheard of for a minor league free agent to make a major league impact. In no particular order, Gregor Blanco, Jesus Guzman, Donovan Solano, Yangervis Solarte, Jake Smolinski, Jose Quintana and Al Alburquerque are some notable examples from the past few years. And there are certainly others that I neglected to mention. Each left his original organization via minor league free agency, but achieved some level of big league success with his new team.

Using my KATOH projection system, I identified a few players from this year’s minor league free agent class who showed glimmers of promise last season. Based on their minor league numbers, there’s reason to believe they might be able to help at the big league level sometime soon. Below, you’ll find the top three hitters and top three pitchers according to KATOH. For each player, I’ve also provided a projected win total through his age-28 season (denoted as WAR thru 28) based both on 2015 numbers and then also his 2014 season (denoted as 2014 KATOH).

*****

Hitters

Wilfredo Tovar, 2.0 WAR thru 28

2014 KATOH: 1.5 WAR

Former Team: New York Mets

Current Status: Unsigned

Tovar was an interesting prospect in the Mets system a few years back, but the infielder stalled out in the high minors after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. He spent 2015 with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, where he hit .283/.327/.356 with 30 steals. Tovar isn’t sexy — if he were, he wouldn’t be a minor league free agent — but he makes contact, runs well and plays up-the-middle defense. And most importantly, at 24, he’s still young enough that he could conceivably get a good deal better.

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“I don’t care about the money,” (Mike Ilitch) said. “I want the best players.”

The Tigers owner made that comment at yesterday’s press conference introducing Jordan Zimmermann as the newest member of Detroit’s rotation. For sure, Ilitch has indeed backed up that comment with significant spending over the years, giving out big money deals to acquire guys like Prince Fielder and Anibal Sanchez while still retaining players like Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, and Victor Martinez. The Tigers have consistently run some of the highest payrolls in baseball over the last decade, and Ilitch clearly isn’t looking to rebuild, given his own age and that of most of the team’s players.

But while adding Zimmermann should help stabilize the rotation, the Tigers should not yet be done spending. If Ilitch is serious about not caring about his budget — he stated he’d even be willing to go over the luxury tax if need be — he has a real chance to back up those words this winter, because the Tigers were not one Jordan Zimmermann away from being the best team in the AL Central. Even with Zimmermann, they don’t currently look like one of the five best teams in the American League.

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Johnny Cueto didn’t want the Jordan Zimmermann deal with an extra year attached, or so the rumors go. That’s interesting, because the two 29-year-old righties are comparable players:

Johnny Cueto vs Jordan Zimmermann, Since 2011

Name	IP	K%	BB%	xFIP	FIP	ERA
Cueto	889.1	20.7%	6.3%	3.58	3.41	2.71
Zimmermann	971.2	19.8%	4.6%	3.58	3.30	3.14

At least by strikeouts and walks, these two are in the same class. Zimmermann’s strikeout minus walk rate is a little better than Cueto’s, even if the dreadlocked one has a better strikeout rate.

These guys look very similar, until you look at the batted ball stats. Over the last five years, 26.5% of Cueto’s balls in play have been hits, while 29% of Zimmermann’s have been. That’s led to a 2.71 ERA for one and a 3.14 ERA for the other.

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Let’s begin by acknowledging the obvious: the entire premise of this piece is probably absurd. Considering that the Major League Baseball Players Association’s top priority over the last several decades has been to resist the implementation of a salary cap, it is highly unlikely that the players will reverse course and seriously consider agreeing to a cap on team payroll anytime soon. Opposition to the very notion of a salary cap is simply too deeply ingrained in the union’s culture.

But even if the players are unlikely to agree to a salary cap in the foreseeable future, there is a legitimate case to be made that they should at least consider the possibility during their upcoming collective bargaining negotiations with Major League Baseball.

Indeed, in many respects, the players have been subject to a de facto salary cap for quite some time without receiving any of the accompanying benefits.

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Tommy Hottovy’s position within the Chicago Cubs organization isn’t high profile. It is, however, important to the team’s success. The 34-year-old former pitcher is the club’s Coordinator of Advance Scouting, with a focus on run prevention.

A graduate of Wichita State University, Hottovy played 10 professional seasons after being selected in the fourth round of the 2004 draft by Boston. His big league playing career consisted of 17 relief appearances for the Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals in 2011-2102. Hottovy was hired into his current position last December.

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Hottovy on his current position: “I was in spring training with the Cubs in 2014, playing, and blew out my shoulder. I had a feeling I was done, but I spent the summer rehabbing, anyway. Along the way, I took the online Sabermetrics 101 course from Boston University. I was a finance major with an economics minor at Wichita State, so I have a numbers background. I wanted to refresh my statistics knowledge, and the sabermetrics course, which is obviously about baseball, helped with that.

“I started talking to teams. I told Theo (Epstein) and (Director of Video and Advance Scouting) Kyle Evans what I was interested in, and once we signed Joe Maddon, we discussed how the whole dynamic may work. They were in and we kind of ran with it. Nate Halm, who’s been here for a few years, took on the hitting side of our process. I think we’ve formed a really good rapport with the coaching staff and players.

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With Jordan Zimmermann, it’s so easy to focus on the downside. You’ve got a pitcher, coming up on 30, who’s already had Tommy John surgery once. He just posted a second-half ERA north of 4 despite playing in a woeful division, and he just lost a bunch of strikeouts, and he also just lost some fastball velocity. Every pitcher has red flags, and Zimmermann might have one or two more than usual. We’re all to some extent risk-averse, so it might not immediately seem like a great idea to guarantee Zimmermann $110 million over five years. In an ideal world, you’d like a bit more certainty.

Not that there’s ever such a thing as certainty. Someone as certain as, say, Carl Crawford dropped 8 WAR in between leaving the Rays for the Red Sox. Certainty is a lie, and beyond that, it’s not like Zimmermann wasn’t most recently good. By whatever measure, he had a three-win season. It was his fifth in a row. Zimmermann does actually seem fairly steady, even if you figure he peaked in 2014.

And underneath, Zimmermann has something going on. Most people are concerned with what’s physically going on. And, admittedly, what I’m going to highlight has an unclear link to ultimate performance. But Zimmermann has been changing himself, and in one way, he continued something he began two years ago.

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With the signing of J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million contract, the Blue Jays seem to have turned the corner on their 2015 ace, David Price. So in that sense, for Blue Jays fans, the Happ signing is not a Happ-y occurrence… Has everybody left? Okay! Time to get down to business. While we are all focused on the big-name free agents, like Price, picking their new and surely happy homes, the almost-AL Champs north of the border have been somewhat quietly going about the business of doing lots of business, and that business has been assembling a rotation that can take advantage of their offense.

Happ is the third starting pitcher the Jays have brought in or back since the season ended. Recall that they re-signed Marco Estrada to a two year deal, and then traded Liam Hendriks to Oakland for Jesse Chavez. Now they bring back Happ, a member of the Jays as recently as 2014. With R.A. Dickey and Marcus Stroman, that’s five starting pitchers under team control for next season. While Happ represents likely the last and largest free agent outlay by the Blue Jays organization for a starting pitcher this offseason, that doesn’t mean the team is completely done. With Happ, the team has $92 million committed to seven players in 2016 and none of those seven are Josh Donaldson, meaning adding an eighth player will make that figure meaningfully larger. Last season Toronto spent $137 million, their highest payroll ever, and though reports are a bit conflicting, they don’t seem likely to go much beyond that if at all for 2016. Assuming that’s all true, fitting David Price’s salary in would have meant cutting some muscle from the payroll, and doing that likely would have meant cutting muscle from Toronto’s greatest strength, their offense.

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The Red Sox signed one of the Chris Youngs — the one who can hit. Terms haven’t yet been announced, or at least, terms hadn’t yet been announced when I first heard about this, and I haven’t bothered to check again since. It doesn’t really matter. He’ll get some millions over some years, and it will be neither great nor terrible, and whether Young is a success will probably come down to about five or ten swings per season. If they’re doubles or homers, terrific. If they’re outs, bad investment. So it goes with the role players. So it goes with everybody.

It’s fun that there are multiple Chris Youngs. It’s all the more fun they’re both weird and exceptional, extreme representations of ordinary profiles. The pitcher is unusually tall, and he throws unusually slow, and he generates an unusual amount of fly balls. The outfielder is also strange, and here’s a plot of part of his career profile:

Young hits a ton of balls in the air. A relative ton of those remain close to the infield. Young pulls the majority of his balls in play. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Young is sitting on a pretty low career BABIP, despite having a good amount of footspeed. Young isn’t the most difficult hitter to defend. You tend to know where the ball’s going, and then it’s a matter of covering as much of that limited ground as possible.

So, yeah, both Chris Youngs are fly-ball machines. They both get pop-ups and run low BABIPs. These are neat and coincidental fun facts. But let’s focus on that pull rate. Also, on the inversely-related opposite-field rate. Young does his damage hitting to left and left-center. He’s the worst opposite-field hitter we have on record.

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Usually, the retirement of a 37-year-old journeyman who spent the vast majority of his 20-year career in the minor leagues is not a cause for reflection by most fans of major league baseball. A cause of wonderment, perhaps, at the drive of a player who would, year after year, continue to play past the point at which a full-time major league dream seemed out of reach. That assumes, however, that the player wasn’t incredibly accomplished, and just this past season set the minor league record for home runs. All of it assumes the player isn’t Mike Hessman, the modern-day embodiment of Crash Davis.

Hessman’s is a true baseball life – not that of a storied major league slugger, or a fire-balling ace who won 300 games – but a player who epitomizes the never-say-die attitude at the heart of many a great sports story. That perseverance deserves recognition, and today, we’re going to highlight Hessman’s career through a few key facts and graphics to try to capture just how special and zany it was.

First, the easy one: the home runs. Hessman hit a lot of them. Out of a total of 454 professional dingers, he hit 433 in the minors, 14 in the majors, six in Japan, and one while playing in Venezuela. Take a look at his career home runs by level:

It took Hessman almost six years to make it to Triple-A after being drafted by Atlanta out of high school, but when he arrived, he stuck around. While he would compile 109 games in the major leagues with the Braves, Tigers, and Mets, his most permanent team was the Toledo Mud Hens, the Triple-A affiliate for the Detroit Tigers. He spent five years bashing a combined 140 homers for them between 2005 and 2009; in 2015, he reunited with them to add on another 16, including his record-breaking 433rd, a fitting go-ahead grand slam to left:

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