Archive for Daily Graphings

Yogi Berra Was Certifiably Clutch

Yogi Berra’s playing career ended well before my time. He was a superstar of an earlier generation, and though he never left the public eye, I certainly don’t know him any better than any of you do. So much of his stardom was due to his character, and to receive revealing anecdotes, we have to turn to the storytellers. Others are better equipped to talk about Berra’s personality. Others are better equipped to talk about their interactions with him, about all the things he said, about his graciousness and about his legacy. Berra, like all of them, was more than a baseball player. Berra was a person like few of them, and to fully understand him is to spend most of the time thinking about what he was off the field.

But of all the functions of statistics, one of them is to allow us to connect to the bygone eras. Stories provide information about the type of person Berra was. Statistics provide information about the type of player Berra was. Berra played before I knew what was going on. He played before most of you knew what was going on. We never got to watch him, outside of a few old video clips, but by digging into the data, we have a means by which to appreciate how talented he was, and how unlikely his story turned out to be. Berra did have one of those rare larger-than-life personalities, and that’s what made him more than just a great baseball player. Yet he was an unquestionably great baseball player, and as it turns out, he was also unquestionably clutch.

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The Cy Young Award and the Wins Barrier

With October approaching (I am as surprised as anyone by that fact), awards season is starting to shape up, which means the writers on these fine digital pages are doing their best to break down who should win and who should not. As I quite fortunately find myself to be one of those writers, I have some thoughts, especially as they relate to the Cy Young. Today, my hope is that you will join me on a journey of sorts into some preconceived notions of Cy Young benchmarks and barriers.

First, an introduction to our candidates. In the American League, it looks as if anyone will have a hard time beating David Price, as Sonny Gray’s most recent starts — one of which was the shortest of his young career — have been sub-par, and Dallas Keuchel also had one of the worst starts of his career recently, coughing up nine earned runs to the Texas Rangers. Chris Sale and Chris Archer also merit some consideration, as well.

In the National League, it’s unsurprisingly a battle between permanent fixture Clayton Kershaw, teammate Zack Greinke, and relative newcomer Jake Arrieta. That one is arguably tougher to call, though batted-ball mastermind Tony Blengino tried his hand at it last week.

All of this leads to an abstract thought I had recently. Let’s say we find ourselves with two leading candidates for one league’s Cy Young, both possessing the exact same ERA and WHIP. Maybe one pitcher’s fielding-independent statistics are better (something that potentially had a hand in Corey Kluber’s Cy Young win last season), but the main difference between the two pitchers is a pretty standard measure of “success”: wins. One pitcher plays for a bad team — as is the case with Sonny Gray, for example. One of them plays for an exciting, playoff-bound team — as is the case with Dallas Keuchel.

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JABO: A Royal Pitching Problem

The current version of the Kansas City Royals are primarily known for two things: playing amazing defense and having a dominating bullpen. That combination of elite glovework and unhittable relievers carried them to the World Series a year ago, and helped them run away with the AL Central this season; they entered the month of September with 13 game lead over the second-place Twins.

But despite a pre-punched playoff ticket, September has provided plenty of reason for Kansas City fans to worry about their chances headed into October. After an 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Mariners last night, the Royals are now just 7-13 this month, thanks to a pitching staff that apparently is coming apart at the seams. In those 20 contests, the Royals have allowed 120 runs, for an average of 6.0 runs allowed per game. Up through August 31st, they allowed just 484 runs over 130 games, or 3.8 runs allowed per game.

This month, opponents are hitting .290/.364/.474 against the Royals; only the Phillies and A’s are allowing opponents to do more damage in September. And it’s not just a couple of guys; almost the entire staff is getting lit up.

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Young Three Provide Hope for the Reds

“Until you step outside of it, you don’t realize how special it is,” Barry Zito said on the field in Oakland, nostalgia in his voice and touch of grey his hair. He was reminiscing about what it was like to have three homegrown young starters peaking at the same time, back when he joined Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder in dominating the American League.

The parallels in Cincinnati are not immediately obvious, nor are they perfectly similar. Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, and John Lamb probably won’t turn into the next Big Three, and they aren’t necessarily all homegrown in the stricter definition of the word.

And yet… standing there on that field, listening to Zito talk and thinking of writing this piece, a little dreaming was possible. Could those three young Reds be the backbone of a strong staff as soon as next year? Just look at them sitting there atop the rookie leaderboards.

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Pete Mackanin on Managing

Pete Mackanin had the “interim” tag removed yesterday from his job title. The rebuilding Phillies extended the 64-year-old skipper’s contract through next season, with a club option for 2017. Mackanin has been at the helm since Ryne Sandberg unexpectedly stepped down in late June. The team has gone 30-46 under his leadership.

This is Mackanin’s first full-time managerial job at the big-league level. Prior to Philadelphia, he served in an interim capacity in Pittsburgh (2005) and Cincinnati (2007). He previously interviewed for openings in Houston, Boston and Chicago (Cubs), only to be bypassed.

Earlier this month, Mackanin sat down to share some of his thoughts on running a ball club. Our conversation was by no means comprehensive – we only touched on a few of his philosophies – but it does offer a snapshot of Mackanin’s mindset.

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Mackanin on playing the kids: “When I make out a lineup here, I don’t necessarily make out a lineup that I feel gives us the best chance to win. I have to play players we want to get a look at. It’s part of the job right now. With the team we have, we need to find out about players – we have to see what some of these guys are capable of. For instance, Darnell Sweeney joined us recently and I knew nothing about him. If I’m playing for a division title, I probably wouldn’t have put him in the lineup, but under these circumstances, he’s playing. And he’s made a good impression.”

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Watching Johnny Cueto and Salvador Perez

Just the other day, Johnny Cueto turned in his first good start in over a month. Though the Royals have been in position to coast to the playoffs for weeks, seeing Cueto actually get batters out came as a tremendous relief, an indication that the ace is getting back to being an ace with October around the bend. Maybe just as interesting as what Cueto did on the field were conversations that took place off of it. As Andy McCullough wrote, Cueto felt like he needed to express something about Salvador Perez.

Part of his trouble, Cueto explained to the team, was he tries to throw exactly toward the catcher’s glove. Perez often set the target high in the zone, intending to lower his mitt with the pitch. But the optics challenged Cueto, which may have led to him spinning a series of cutters and change-ups at the waist of opposing hitters in recent weeks.

This post will consist of observations, and nothing more. I want to lay that out for you now. Cueto wanted his catcher to behave a little differently behind the plate, and though that’s a difficult thing to actually analyze, it grabbed my attention because it’s an unusual thing to hear. So I’m drawn to trying to explore this. Feel free to explore with me, or alternatively remain in the comforts of home. Explorers frequently die.

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Does It Matter Who You Beat On the Way to the Playoffs?

The Mets have probably had the easiest schedule in baseball. That’s not to take anything away from them — it’s not their fault, and the Nationals have faced pretty much the same slate. It’s just a fact. Things have conspired to make the Mets’ schedule fairly soft. One notices, if you dig in, the Mets have really taken advantage of this. Against teams under .500, they’ve won 67% of their games. Against teams at least .500, they’ve won just 41% of their games. Against the Phillies, the Mets have gone 14-2; against the Pirates and Cubs, they’re 0-13. Their difference in record by opponent quality is the biggest in the game, edging out the Orioles and the Dodgers.

At the other end of the extreme, you find the Blue Jays. The Mets have mostly beaten up on bad teams. The Blue Jays have beaten everyone, but especially the above-average teams. Against teams under .500, they’ve won 53% of their games. Against teams at least .500, they’ve won 63% of their games. Their difference in record by opponent quality is the biggest in the game, in the other direction. They beat out the A’s and the Tigers.

With the playoffs looming, it’s easy to speculate. Once October rolls around, only good teams are left. It seems like the team that’s been better against good teams should stand a better chance. Does this mean anything for the Blue Jays and Mets? Below, I can provide not necessarily the answer, but certainly an answer.

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The Latest Edition of David Price

The Blue Jays acquired David Price expecting him to be an ace, and to this point he’s been exactly as advertised. While teams elsewhere are struggling to straighten out their deadline acquisitions, Price has allowed just 15 runs in 10 starts with Toronto. His surface numbers are terrific, and his more advanced numbers are terrific, and when everything agrees that a guy is terrific, he’s probably terrific. The Blue Jays are getting what they paid for.

Significantly, in just over a month and a half, Price has already pitched against the Yankees four times. Three of those games he won, and in the one he didn’t, he left with a 3-1 lead. Monday was Price’s latest win over New York, and he found himself in the most trouble in the third inning. With one out and the bases loaded, Price began his highest-leverage plate appearance of the evening, opposite Alex Rodriguez.

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The Role of Context in Determining the Best

Here’s a statement I think most people would agree with: Bryce Harper has been the best player in baseball this year.

Harper leads the majors in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, so naturally, he also leads in wOBA, wRC+, and just about any other offensive metric you can find here on FanGraphs. In most cases, it isn’t even close; his 205 wRC+ is 30 points better than the next best hitter (Joey Votto), and no one is within +1.5 WAR of his current total (+9.7, with Josh Donaldson’s +8.1 coming in second). Harper is having one of the best offensive seasons of all time, and while some other guys are having excellent years as well, no one is really performing at Harper’s level this year.

Now here’s a statement that I’m guessing would be a bit more controversial: the Washington Nationals are having the best season in the National League East.

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Rich Hill and the Limits of Knowledge

Suppose the amount of human knowledge in the universe is finite. And suppose we happen to have reached the limit; we have acquired as much as we can. And suppose further that this applies to baseball, as well. What if we have learned as much as we can about pitching, for example, and there is no more knowledge we can gain, try as we might? It’s a silly supposition, of course: there’s lots more to study and learn and there always will be until we crash into the sun. But I present this thought experiment to you because it’s as close to a real explanation for Rich Hill’s recent dominance as I can get.

There’s a very real chance you have no idea what or who I’m talking about at this point, so please, let me back up. Rich Hill the pitcher is who, and his two starts wherein he’s recorded 20 total strikeouts, a single walk, and given up all of three runs in 14 innings is what. The what is brought up because it’s odd. How odd? There have been 97 games this year in which a starting pitcher went at least seven innings with at least 10 strikeouts and walked at most one batter. There have been 2,235 games played this season, so 97 represents just 4% of the total games. The fact that Hill did it once is interesting. The fact that he did it twice is just bizarre.

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