Yesterday, we had our first notable trade as we head towards the deadline, with the A’s officially throwing in the towel by shipping Scott Kazmir to the Astros for a couple of A-ball prospects, one of whom looks pretty interesting. But given that Kazmir is a pretty high quality starter without any kind of significant financial commitment beyond this year, the return for his services seems a bit light on the surface, especially given that it looked like we might have an extreme seller’s market a few weeks ago.

In that piece, I stated that I saw “20 to 22” teams looking to add talent, with a few more just riding out their rosters for the remainder of the season, leaving only “5 to 8 teams” serving as the supply source of talent at the deadline. Those assumptions now look pretty poor, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Many of the bubble teams who looked like they could have swung towards buying have instead fallen off by the wayside and are now looking to the future, and they all happen to have starting pitching to trade.

As a result, supply and demand for starting pitching seem to have evened out, and we might even be in a situation where there are more starting pitchers available than open spots that contenders are looking to fill.

Realistically, the Dodgers need two starters, and the Royals probably do too, with the Blue Jays desperately looking for one, and the Cubs and Yankees also looking to upgrade their rotations if the price is right. That’s a gross demand for seven pitchers, though we could get that up to nine if we include the Rangers and Red Sox on the demand side of things; even though neither is a 2015 contender, both are reportedly still shopping for controllable arms to help them for next year. Someone else — maybe Pittsburgh, St. Louis, or Minnesota — might jump into the market for pitching as well, but right now, it looks like there’s aggregate demand for 7-9 starting pitchers.

And there are at least that many available arms. The Reds are selling Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, the Marlins are shopping Mat Latos and Dan Haren, the Phillies have Cole Hamels perpetually available, the White Sox will move Jeff Samardzija, the Rangers are reportedly looking to deal Yovani Gallardo, and the Padres have apparently made their entire rotation available, with Ian Kennedy the most likely to go. If we assume the Padres will only deal Kennedy and keep their three guys under control for next year, then that group provides an aggregate supply of eight available starters, right in line with our estimate of demand.

But by the end of the weekend, the supply could continue to increase, and potentially in significant ways. If the Tigers put David Price on the block, that would have a cascading effect on everyone else’s value, as he’d probably go to the top of the list in terms of desirable starting pitchers. The Mariners could put Hisashi Iwakuma in play as well, and if both the Tigers and Mariners decide to move their free-agent-arms-to-be, we’d be looking at nine rental pitchers available, plus Hamels, meaning that there would be enough short-term assets available to meet the demand even without dipping into the reserve of controllable assets who could be had if a team put together an aggressive package.

And if the Rangers don’t land Cole Hamels, demand will probably decline rather than increase, as they seem to only really be in the market for him, and not any of the rest of the guys floating around the rumor mill. Right now, I’ve got them in both the supply and demand category, but if Hamels goes elsewhere — or doesn’t go anywhere at all — they’re likely to pivot out of buying and solely act as a seller. The Yankees are also making noises about having a quiet deadline, and with Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda pitching well, they don’t necessarily have to trade for a starter; if they bow out of the bidding as well, we could be looking at only four teams buying starting pitching over the next week.

That’s probably an unlikely scenario, as even if the Rangers and Yankees decide not to buy, that will probably drive prices down low enough to bring in one of the on-the-bubble buyers, and maybe the Twins or Pirates would swoop in at that point and pick up one of the lower-tier arms. I’d be surprised if fewer than seven starting pitchers changed teams over the next week, and it’s probably going to be more like eight or nine.

But the Padres are a problem for teams selling pitching, because if they decide to blow up their rotation and move one of James Shields, Tyson Ross, or Andrew Cashner in addition to Ian Kennedy, then we’re definitely going to be in a situation where there are more available arms than the contenders are demanding. And if Toronto ends up with a guy like Mike Fiers or Carlos Carrasco — they’ve been rumored to be looking into both — instead of Hamels or one of the rentals, then those teams selling pending free agents could see their options dry up quickly.

Particularly, I think the Marlins are the most vulnerable here, with two mid-level rent-a-pitchers who don’t seem to be at the top of anyone’s wish list. Mat Latos offers enough upside to be interesting but has reportedly burned a lot of bridges in his time with three different organizations, and a few months of a good-not-great starter who might be a pain in the rear to have around is easy to pass up when there are so many alternatives. And while Dan Haren has a shiny 3.46 ERA, he is mostly a strike-throwing fifth starter at this point, with declining peripherals that suggest you probably don’t want to hand him the ball in a playoff game. If an oversupply leaves anyone without a spot on a contender down the stretch, I’d guess it would be one of those two, and it could end up being both.

But there is a counter-balance to this that I think may make this rush to call this a buyer’s market a bit premature; the Qualifying Offer. The potential addition of a fairly valuable draft pick gives most of the potential sellers a fallback plan that they can use as a price floor. If we do end up in a situation with 10 or 11 available starting pitchers and only six or seven spots for them to land, the White Sox could just decide to keep Samardzija for the next few months, especially if the offers aren’t much different than what the A’s got for Kazmir.

Nottingham, after all, looks like a back-end Top 100 guy; Kiley wrote yesterday that he’ll get a grade of 50 FV, which would put him in the same range as players who ranked from 80 to 142 on his pre-season Top 200. Based on the recent studies of prospect valuations, that kind of prospect has an estimated value of about $10-$15 million, not that different from the value of a draft pick in the 25-35 range.

There are benefits to trading for a prospect instead of taking a draft pick; you don’t have to pay the signing bonus of the prospect — and maybe not the salary of the guy you’re trading either — plus you also get a guy who is likely in closer proximity to the Major Leagues. So a trade is preferable to the pick, but then again, having Samardzija for the rest of the season is likely preferable to throwing out some Triple-A call-up for the last two months, and the value of putting a better product on the field for the stretch run has to be factored in as well.

But the Qualifying Offer does provide a price floor for the better rental pitchers on the block. If teams start trying to low-ball on Samardzija, Leake, or Iwakuma (who is eligible for a a Qualifying Offer), the sellers can tell them to go pound sand, and removing those guys from the supply side of things could restore some balance to the market.

But the QO is probably not in play for guys like Latos, Haren, or Kennedy, and Gallardo is a guy who would be a tough call on making the offer, so the Marlins, Padres, and Rangers are probably the ones most likely to get squeezed if this market does end up swinging to the buyer’s side of things. And that alone may be reason enough for the Padres to take Shields, Ross, and Cashner off the market until after they find a new home for Kennedy; they could be undermining the value of a piece they need to move by trading a piece they don’t.

Of course, if there isn’t much demand for Kennedy in the first place — he’s having a pretty crappy year, after all — then the Padres shouldn’t be too concerned with nuking the value of a bunch of other available starting pitchers. And along with the Tigers, they’re probably the key to this whole thing. If, over the next week, David Price and James Shields do get traded, that’s some seriously bad news for everyone else selling pitching, and at that point, it probably will be a full-fledged buyer’s market for starting pitching, with a few contenders reaping the rewards of drastically diminished prices.

In the end, though, I’m guessing the Tigers keep their team together and the Padres keep their controlled guys, and we end up with a mostly balanced market that helps find new homes for most every pitcher available. Perhaps a guy like Haren will get left without a chair, but I still don’t quite see this as a scenario where supply dramatically outstrips demand. We could get there if Detroit and San Diego decide to dump their pitchers, but I’m not sure we’re there just yet.

Kris Bryant has a lot going for him: he’s second in rookie WAR this season*, he’s part of a long-term Cubs future that looks increasingly rosy, and he’s part of a positional rookie class that has produced the third-most first-half WAR (prorated to 600 PA) in the past 40 years. In short, he’s been everything the Cubs could’ve asked for, showcasing the power, patience, and stolen bases that were expected out of him once he hit the majors.

*All stats current as of Thursday.

That last tool — speed — might be translating to steals somewhat on the back of manager Joe Maddon’s coaching style, but Bryant’s stolen-base skills have never really been in question. He stole eight bases in just 68 games at Double-A and seven in 70 in Triple-A during 2014; this season, he’s produced right about on that level, with eight in 83 games, and that’s obviously a great return for a player with the potential to hit 30 home runs. No one seems to confuse Bryant with a speed demon, however, as he’s not a player whose skill set is based solely around his ability to run.

That final point is precisely why we’re here, because Bryant is currently leading a category you might not expect him to, and one usually reserved for those speedier players we just mentioned. The category he’s leading isn’t home runs, or ISO, or even K% (though he is close to leading that one). Instead, take a look at the top 15 this season for highest infield-hit percentage:

Bryant doesn’t hit a lot of ground balls. Only about 34% of his batted balls are on the ground (relative to a league average of about 45%.) Bryant’s lack of propensity to hit grounder is just as much a driving factor here as his speed is, because infield-hit rate is simply infield hits/ground balls. However, when Bryant does hit a ground ball, it has resulted in an infield hit almost one in five times, which is something that warrants some attention.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brent Morel started at third base for the Pirates on Monday. The same Brent Morel who has a career .272 on-base percentage. He started again at third base last night as well. This must have struck fear into the hearts of Pittsburgh Pirates fans, perhaps giving them some flashbacks to the bad old days. Thankfully, that shouldn’t happen very often, as the prodigal son — Aramis Ramirez — has returned. The Pirates re-acquired him on Thursday evening in exchange for minor-league pitcher Yhonathan Barrios.

When Aramis Ramirez left the shores of the Allegheny, he had accumulated just 3.2 WAR in his 2,253 plate appearances in a Pittsburgh uniform. But with the Pirates’ National League Central rivals in Chicago and Milwaukee, he went on to become the player the Pirates always envisioned him as. Now on the brink of 40 WAR for his career — a bar that has only been crossed by 40 other third baseman in big-league history — Ramirez is back in black and gold, and Neal Huntington and Co. couldn’t have picked a better time to bring him back into the fold.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s accept that, after four starts this season, there are few conclusions that can be reached about Jose Fernandez. After all, we need bigger samples of data, and even then, conclusions mostly have to be pretty soft. After four starts, we know very little. But we’re always allowed to make observations. We can identify hints of things, things that might be true, and so I ask, has Fernandez become more dangerous on the other side of his elbow surgery?

You probably haven’t missed it, but just in case you did, Fernandez rejoined the Miami Marlins not long ago, and one of the Internet’s most favorite pitchers has 32 strikeouts in 26 innings. He’s also issued just three walks, throwing almost three-quarters of his pitches for strikes. And it doesn’t seem like he’s lost any movement or zip. Set a low enough minimum, and Fernandez leads all starting pitchers in out-of-zone swing rate. It’s here that I want to linger. I want to talk about that number, and I want to talk about Fernandez’s best pitch.

Read the rest of this entry »

The A’s figured 2015 would be a competitive year, and though there have been plenty of encouraging signs, at some point there’s just not enough time left to expect bad luck to reverse itself. The Astros, meanwhile, figured 2015 would be a competitive year, but maybe not this much of a competitive year, so they found themselves considering the market of short-term upgrades. So it is that a surprising A’s team and a surprising Astros team have come together on a move: Scott Kazmir is going to Houston, and now the league-wide trade market is open.

He’s not the first big-leaguer to be moved. Juan Uribe got swapped. Mark Trumbo got swapped. Welington Castillo got swapped a couple of times. But this is the first real deadline move, with the A’s conceding that it’s time for them to sell. Kazmir’s a free agent in a few months, but the Astros weren’t turned off by that. If anything, they were seeking that out. Rentals tend to cost less, and Kazmir provides important rotation insurance. The guys the A’s are getting are named Jacob Nottingham and Daniel Mengden. You’re probably not familiar with either, but that doesn’t mean the A’s just got robbed.

Read the rest of this entry »

The trading deadline is nearly upon us, and if history is a guide, there could be a dizzying amount of player movement in the coming days. This season appears to be unique in a couple of ways. There seems to be a somewhat historic mismatching of pure buyers and sellers, in large part due to the insanity of the American League wild-card race. Purely by definition, is there a sure seller in that bunch?

This week, we’re previewing the deadline in a somewhat unique manner. Instead of focusing solely on club’s holes and potential targets, we’ll hone in on them from their respective talent arsenals to be drawn upon to make deadline deals. Which clubs are best — and worst — positioned to land the most attractive prizes on the market? Yesterday, we looked at the American League. Today, it’s the NL, and its somewhat more traditional stratification of buyers and sellers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week at Grantland, two friends of the show in Jonah Keri and Nick Piecoro had a wonderful discussion about all things Arizona Diamondbacks, including the Touki Toussaint trade that caused many a skeptical eyebrow to be raised in the Diamondbacks’ direction. While Keri and Piecoro by no means endorsed the Diamondbacks’ recent moves, they brought up an interesting perspective on Arizona’s willingness to spend big on Cuban players Yasmany Tomas and Yoan Lopez — and thus easily eclipsing their allotted international bonuses — without spending much on international free agents from other countries. The idea: there’s a relatively slim chance that Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart — or any other general manager for any other team — would still be working in their current position when today’s 16-year-old reaches the majors. While the fan no doubt cringes at the thought of a general manager romping around the front office with nary a concern for the franchise’s sustained success, one can definitely empathize with the human instinct for self-preservation.

Read the rest of this entry »

Lance McCullers is starting for the Astros on Thursday, and while he’s going to have his innings closely monitored down the stretch, potentially reducing his availability, there’s no doubt he’s played a big role in getting the Astros to where they are at present. McCullers has followed an up-and-down 2014 with an incredibly successful 2015, and in just 11 big-league starts, he’s been worth about 2 WAR no matter which formula you prefer. The Astros are said to be in the market for a starting pitcher, but if it weren’t for McCullers’ presence, the situation would be a lot more desperate.

McCullers throws three pitches, though the changeup is simply coming along. He has a good fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the best pitch here is the curve, thrown a third of the time and responsible for the majority of McCullers’ strikeouts. It’s never been a secret that McCullers throws a good breaking ball, but in talking with David Laurila, Brent Strom tossed out a heavy comp:

“I’d say McCullers’ breaking ball is Kimbrel-like at times,” said Strom. “That’s as good as you can get. I haven’t seen everybody’s curveball, but I would say the young kid McCullers has a curveball as good as anybody in this game.”

That’s a direct comparison between Lance McCullers’ breaking ball and Craig Kimbrel’s breaking ball. That’s coming from a big-league pitching coach, so it carries some weight. But why not put numbers to this, to try to find the best comp, really?

Read the rest of this entry »

As I write this, the Mets are a couple games back from a National League wild-card slot. They’re also just a couple games out of first place in the NL East, and they’re beating the Nationals in the eighth inning. As I wrote that, the lead was blown, and now things are all tied up, but the bigger point is that things are close. Regardless of how the game ends today, the Mets have a good shot at going to the playoffs. It’s true that the Nationals have been hurt by injuries. But the Mets, too, have had to deal with a lot of problems, so it’s not like they’re just benefiting from Washington’s misfortune. It’s a winnable division, and oh, by the way, here’s a screenshot of Bryce Harper, and a screenshot of his subsequent swing:

So there’s a sense of urgency. I see now the Mets are losing to the Nationals, 4-3. That’s bad. Anyway, there’s a sense of urgency, as people want the Mets to upgrade so that they don’t waste the pitching they’re getting. Due in part to all those injuries, the lineup has struggled. The Mets could use a bat, and in left field, they’ve got an aching Michael Cuddyer and a handful of backups. There are some rumors connecting the Mets to second-tier outfielders on the market, like Gerardo Parra and Will Venable. Yet there’s also some momentum to stay internal. The Mets, it seems, are now thinking more about promoting top prospect Michael Conforto. It could even happen within the next 24 hours. The hope is that Conforto might provide the jolt the offense so desperately needs. It would save the front office from having to make a trade.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals have a pretty good team this year. Their 59-34 record is easily the best in baseball, as are their 98.8% playoff odds. Yet, for all that’s right with the Cardinals, there’s been one gaping hole in their lineup of late: first base.

Since Matt Adams‘ season came to an end when he tore his quad in late May, the Cardinals have had a tough time filling the he left void at first base. Most of the plate appearances have fallen to Mark Reynolds, who’s managed just an unspectacular 95 wRC+ from the position. Xavier Scruggs and Dan Johnson have also kicked in a combined 46 plate appearances of sub-80 wRC+ work.

To help sure up their first-base situation, the Cards called up prospect Stephen Piscotty, who was hitting a strong .272/.366/.475 in Triple-A Memphis. Although the Cardinals have mostly deployed him as an outfielder in the minors, the plan appears to be for him to slot in at first base for the time being. Unlike many of the guys who have gotten the call over the past couple of months, Piscotty’s not a consensus top-tier prospect. Although he did manage to crack the top 50 in both Baseball Prospectus’ and John Sickels’ mid-season lists. Our very own Kiley McDaniel had him 81st in the preseason.

Read the rest of this entry »