How Much Could Michael Conforto Help the Mets?
As I write this, the Mets are a couple games back from a National League wild-card slot. They’re also just a couple games out of first place in the NL East, and they’re beating the Nationals in the eighth inning. As I wrote that, the lead was blown, and now things are all tied up, but the bigger point is that things are close. Regardless of how the game ends today, the Mets have a good shot at going to the playoffs. It’s true that the Nationals have been hurt by injuries. But the Mets, too, have had to deal with a lot of problems, so it’s not like they’re just benefiting from Washington’s misfortune. It’s a winnable division, and oh, by the way, here’s a screenshot of Bryce Harper, and a screenshot of his subsequent swing:
So there’s a sense of urgency. I see now the Mets are losing to the Nationals, 4-3. That’s bad. Anyway, there’s a sense of urgency, as people want the Mets to upgrade so that they don’t waste the pitching they’re getting. Due in part to all those injuries, the lineup has struggled. The Mets could use a bat, and in left field, they’ve got an aching Michael Cuddyer and a handful of backups. There are some rumors connecting the Mets to second-tier outfielders on the market, like Gerardo Parra and Will Venable. Yet there’s also some momentum to stay internal. The Mets, it seems, are now thinking more about promoting top prospect Michael Conforto. It could even happen within the next 24 hours. The hope is that Conforto might provide the jolt the offense so desperately needs. It would save the front office from having to make a trade.
Conforto, without any doubt, is an excellent hitting prospect, and his stock has only gotten higher since the start of the year. He was the best hitter on his team in Brooklyn. He was the best hitter on his team in St. Lucie. He’s been the best hitter on his team in Binghamton. The power is coming along, and the discipline is present. At every level, Conforto has hit about 20% better than average, when you account for the ballparks. This is a guy who’s shooting up prospect lists.
The question has to do with his readiness. Few people doubt that Conforto could be good, soon. More people doubt that Conforto could be good, tomorrow. He’s a college pick, a polished bat, but still, he’s not even at 50 games of experience above single-A. The Mets weren’t planning to move Conforto so fast. It’d be a rush job, compelled by the context of the standings. But that doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing. It’s worth wondering, then: what could the Mets expect of Conforto?
To be honest, every prospect has to be evaluated individually. Everybody’s different, with different skills and different brains. The Mets know Conforto better than I do. But I can at least generate some numbers. I decided to try something, building from Baseball America’s track record of top-100 prospects, going back to 1990. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best I’ve got.
I started with all those preseason top-100 prospects. (Conforto, before the year, ranked No. 80.) I eliminated all the pitchers, and I also eliminated all the catchers and middle infielders, to get rid of guys who might’ve had a lot of value tied up in their defense. From what was left, I identified the players who, that year, made their big-league debuts, and came to the plate at least 50 times. It gave me a sample of 180 names. These are guys who were selected to play in the majors. It’s true that Conforto’s stock has improved from last winter. He wouldn’t rank close to the No. 80 prospect now. But you have to figure other guys who got to the majors, too, mostly had improving stocks. Someone on the decline is less likely to debut in the bigs. Anyway, you care less about this, and more about the numbers.
As I said, I was looking at 180 debuts. These were made mostly by bat-first prospects. Overall, they averaged an 89 wRC+. Those who batted at least 100 times averaged a 93 wRC+. Of the players, 37% posted a wRC+ of at least 100. Narrowing down further, 20% posted a wRC+ of at least 120. The tendency has been for the players to struggle. This has also been far from a rule. Mike Trout didn’t have a sparkling debut. Neither did Jim Thome. On the other hand, check out Kris Bryant. Recall the original Jeff Francoeur. Immediate success isn’t unheard of.
As you might’ve noticed, this didn’t select for players with limited upper-minors experience. Bryant, after all, played the equivalent of a full season in double- and triple-A. But perhaps other teams would’ve been more aggressive with their minor-league Conforto assignments, out of college. And there are still success stories, scattered among the rougher debuts. Say what you will of Francoeur’s career, but when he was a rookie sensation, he came straight from double-A. Albert Pujols practically came straight from single-A. John Olerud never went to the minors at all, and he was a solid rookie. More recently, Yasiel Puig went from Cuba to the majors, stopping only briefly in the minor leagues. And Miguel Sano has been a good hitter, so far, even though he missed 2014, and he’s never seen triple-A.
It’s unlikely that Conforto would embarrass himself at the plate. He is quite advanced for his level, and if the Mets were to select him, that’d be evidence that they believe in him. Still, there is more to it — Conforto is a left fielder, and while some think he has the skills to handle right, he’s not a defensive plus, and because he’s a corner outfielder, that means his value has to come from his bat. If he posted an 89 wRC+, or a 93 wRC+, he wouldn’t be good. If he posted a 100 wRC+, he still wouldn’t be much. He’d maybe help, but not by a lot, so unless you think more of Conforto’s defense, you’d want him to immediately be an above-average hitter. That’s far from impossible, but that’s a lot to ask of a guy being promoted aggressively toward a big-league debut, in a pennant race.
There’s reason to believe Conforto could help. And maybe he’s particularly advanced, relative to other previous top prospects. That’s on the Mets to determine. Conforto isn’t on the 40-man roster, but space could easily be made, and while this would start the service clock, maybe that’s a thing that would start out of camp next year anyway. It’s a pretty simple path that Conforto could take to left field right away.
Yet, based on the history, Conforto would probably debut as a slightly below-average hitter. A slightly below-average hitter, without much in the way of defensive value. Perhaps that experience would be good for Conforto in the long run, but given the reality of things, it does seem like the Mets would be better off swinging a trade, assuming the price isn’t too bad. Venable, I have to imagine, projects better than Conforto would. Ditto Parra, in the short-term. Conforto is the long-term asset, but the Mets also want to be able to win now. Maybe Conforto would be that guy, but it seems more probable he isn’t.
Most importantly, the time for a decision is now. If the Mets really believe in Conforto, they need to bring him up. And if they really prefer someone else, they need to just get that done. Michael Cuddyer isn’t making anything better. There’s been more than enough of the status quo.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Geez! way to jix the mets….gotta write about them during a game and make them lose….. it’s all your fault!
The Mets were a fringe-contender at the start of this year and have missed significant time from a ton of contributors. Wright, Murphy, D’Arnaud, and Cuddyer have missed significant time in the field. Wheeler, Mejia, Edgin, Blevins, Vic Black, and now Matz have missed significant time on the mound. Duda and Lagares have underperformed their projections. This is simply not the year for the Mets to blow up their long-term plans for a short-term rental or two.
Mets fans are impatient and rattling their cages demanding #TRAIDs from the front office, but the team would be much better served standing pat, recuperating their injured starters, and reloading for 2016.
i do not disagree with you at all, but there’s definitely the argument to be made that you only get one chance to get close.
Not only that, but at some point the Mets depth of prospects (especially at pitching) has to be dealt with. You can’t keep players in the minors forever, otherwise they will get hit with the Rule 5 draft.
deGrom/Harvey/Thor/Matz/Niese/Wheeler/Montero? That’s 7 guys for 5 spots next year (provided Wheeler probably won’t be back til June), not including their top pitching prospects (post Matz/Thor/Montero) Michael Fulmer, Gabriel Ynoa, Matt Bowman. Not to mention other guys they have at much lower levels all of which have 40 FV or higher (Marcos Molina, Casey Meisner, Rob Whalen, Luis Cessa).
At some point, you HAVE to make a move. Premier free agents are harder and harder to come by these days.
Prospector:
“This is simply not the year for the Mets to blow up their long-term plans for a short-term rental or two.”
Upvote * 10
The Mets are basically letting their prospects ( by this I mean AAAA guys ) learn at the MLB level ( Flores in particular, their catchers, Campbell, and Tejada to a lesser extent ) and hoping it pays off next year. I’m surprised they aren’t doing the same for Conforto by now. It could be a confidence thing – you don’t want to frustrate young talent.
Also, after seeing what the A’s got for Kazmir, the thought of the Mets trading any of their top prospects for a rental is insane. That includes Montero. Don’t trade Montero. He ought to be the 8th inning guy.
I’m split on whether Conforto can have an impact. But in the end, I don’t think it will matter with Terry Collins managing this team. I don’t think the Mets will ever make the playoffs with Collins leading the club, no matter how much help they get before the deadline. And if they do happen to squeak in, they will lose under Collins.
Collins’ crappy late game management was on full display today and helped cost the Mets the game. Parnell evidently didn’t have it, and in addition, the Nats have been his achilles heel in recent years. Parnell’s lifetime ERA vs. the Nats in 38 games pitched is 4.94 and his WHIP is 2.000. This is by far his worst record against any team in the division. He just melts when he faces the Nats. And yet Collins just sat on his hands and watched as Parnell blew the game.
Meanwhile, yesterday after the Mets built a big lead against the Nats, Terry wastes Jeurys Familia in the 9th.
Is Collins the main reason for the Mets struggles? Of course not. Alderson is the main architect of the team and deserves most of the credit or blame for what happens on the field. But insofar as a manager can impact a team, Collins certainly doesn’t help.
So given that Collins will find ways to mismanage late game leads down the stretch, the postseason is ultimately a futile goal. Therefore it might be best to just let Conforto develop a little more until next year. I don’t think if he does get promoted and struggles big time it will permanently harm him. But, again, as long as Collins is managing the team, it’s pointless.
I don’t see Terry as a positive or a negative. He didn’t put this rag-tag offense together, Alderson did. He didn’t start the season with a weak middle-infield defense, Alderson did. He didn’t sign Michael Cuddyer (or Curtis Granderson), Alderson did. He didn’t assemble the worst bench on the planet, Alderson did. Yeah, he’s a little stubborn about his seventh-, eighth-, and ninth-inning guys, which makes his just like 29 other big league managers. I’m not saying he’s a genius or anything. What I am saying is that maybe it’s time to point the finger at the GM’s office. Yeah, cheap and self-serving ownership doesn’t help, but what has Alderson been doing to improve the team and take advantage of the opportunity the Mets have been given this season?
No one is giving Alderson a pass, especially since he’s the one who hired the idiot manager in the first place. And I specifically said in my post that Alderson deserves MOST of the credit/blame for this team.
But I’m of the firm belief a manager can impact a team +/- 5 to 10 wins every season. And with Collins, I believe he is much more of a detriment to the team than a plus.
There is no way to measure a manager’s performance, unfortunately, but if there were WAR for managers, I think Collins would be something like a -4 or -5. First, there’s his late game management which is woeful and was on full display today. Not saving Famila for today and wasting him yesterday when the Mets had a 5-run lead was his first crime. His second crime was sitting on his hands while a pitcher who has always had trouble facing the Nats in their park was imploding. I also think in general the team plays tight under Collins, and this negatively impacts what is already an offensively challenged bunch. Look at d’Arnaud. Struggled like the dickens in early 2014. He goes down to Vegas and Backman turns him around. Sure, probably a lot of that has to do with it being the PCL – but I have to think a good part of it is just a better environment and better coaching.
Even if Terry weren’t a detriment, I can’t see him being anything more than a neutral factor. Alderson can’t very well overhaul the entire roster this coming offseason, so he should at the very least take a chance that another manager might be able to add more value through better strategic moves – and maybe through better motivating behavior as well.
if managers really are in the range of +/- five to ten **wins** then it looks like they are severely underpaid.
A 3 win pitcher will get like $20M more than a 0 win pitcher in FA, but a 5-10 win manager might get $5M more then a negative 5-10 win manager?
Either that range is absurd or managers are pretty stupid for not striking [or as a group don’t really care about money and material things].
My guess is that managers are probably somewhere between appropriately paid and slightly underpaid relative to players, so would figure the range to be maybe 3-4 wins from best to worst, not 10-20 wins.
I think that relative to ballplayers, some managers are very underpaid and some are overpaid. Ballplayers in general are grossly overpaid, IMO. The reason managers will likely never get more money is because there is no way to prove one way or the other their impact on a game. There are really no numbers for managers, other than W-L record, and everyone agrees they are not the biggest factor in a win or loss.
And yes, I think their impact can be as large as a 20 win swing when you take into account the best and worst. In probably most of the cases, their impact is closer to 5-6 wins. But in some cases it’s much bigger.
I think Maddon is someone who can be on the high side in terms of + wins. Look where he has the Cubs this year vs. where they were with Renteria. Obviously, some of that is due to better players. But no one can tell me that a good portion of that improvement is not due to Maddon himself — either better strategic moves and/or better motivation for the players.
this is absurd
No issue with using Familia yesterday, had pitched once in 10 days and that was the BS. Low leverage work to build into routine coming off the layoff and BS is fairly standard.
Today was another story, a 4 or 5 out save was in order.
Sorry, but 5-up in a night game with the rubber game in a crucial series being a day game less than 24 hours away? There is no way I use Familia in that spot. You have to save him for that rubber game.
He was warming up to come in, Collins just got him up too late. Collins should’ve stalled to give Familia the time he needed to get ready. Have the catcher talk to the pitcher. Have Parnell step off the rubber a few times. Send out the pitching coach. That stuff matters more than Familia getting some needed work last night.
I understand it’s a five run lead, but the Mets absolutely needed that game (and this one, too). I think Familia was the right man for that job considering he was already warming up with the smaller lead, and he should’ve been brought in today. The one thing I will say is that Parnell’s past failures against Washington shouldn’t matter. That was a surgery ago, in a small sample, and against totally different hitters- a good Desmond, LaRoche, healthy Span, healthy Zimmerman, healthy Werth, healthy Rendon, etc. This current Nationals offense that beat him was den Dekker, Michael Taylor and co. – not exactly Murderer’s Row as far as the recent Nationals team goes. Also, like I said: small samples anyway. I didn’t think Parnell looked awful, except for a bit of his breaking ball control. He nearly had other pitches get away before the actual wild pitch. He was throwing harder than he has all season and looked decent. Like someone else said, Familia was warming up anyway, but Parnell encountered trouble quickly when it came. Personally, I would’ve brought in Familia for Taylor because the Mets *needed* this game, but I don’t overly blame Collins here. I’m a Collins fan overall. He basically won yesterday’s game with a fairly bold decision to pinch hit for Jacob deGrom after just 82 pitches with Eric Campbell, and we got a win out of that decision, essentially.
Anthony, Parnell’s sample size against the Nats is 38 games. That’s pretty big, not small.
Further, when a particular pitcher constantly struggles against one team, the cause is often largely mental, meaning it may not matter much what hitters they are facing. Here’s an example — Cole Hamels has often struggled against the Mets and it doesn’t really matter who’s in the lineup.
You also mention that most of Parnell’s struggles came before his surgery. But I don’t see how that is relevant either. In fact, because he is just coming back from surgery — and hence is weaker physically than he was in the past — that would tend to make whatever problems he had before whether they be physical or mental that much more likely. Hence, Collins should have been EXTRA cautious with Parnell because he is just coming back from surgery.
Metsfan, Parnell’s performance against the Nationals is unlikely to be “mental,” especially in a middle of the regular season game. Instead it’s presumably a function of the Nationals being a generally above average offensive team, as well as the type of statistical artifact you create by splitting totals into many smaller buckets. I would bet that if you broke Parnell’s performance down by the birth state of the batter faced, you would get a few states against which he has had very good performance and a few where he has had very poor performance even though the state of origin should have no legitimate effect on performance. That’s simply the kind of artifact you will get from such groupings.
LOL no.
Jdbolick, not sure why you would think last night’s Mets-Nats game was a low pressure situation. In fact, most Mets fans agree it was the most important game of the season up to that point. And any closing situation, really, can be challenging to someone like Parnell who is not mentally tough. Out of all the Mets players the team has tried out in the recent past for late game relief, the only one who has ever really cut the mustard in terms of both requisite stuff and mental toughness is Jeurys Familia. Parnell has never inspired much confidence in Mets fans in any pressure situation.
As for the Nats being an above average offensive team, sorry but that doesn’t appear to explain their numbers against Parnell. Look at Philadelphia and Atlanta. From 2011 to 2013, Philadelphia was as much of an offensive threat as the Nats, while Atlanta was an even bigger one. Yet Parnell’s numbers against both those two teams are significantly better than they are against the Nats. I think Parnell’s lack of mental toughness in pressure situations is a big reason why. It’s not the only one, but I think it’s a big part.
That’s nitpicking on Collins. The day before he managed to win an 18 inning game on the road against the best team in baseball, who also lost a start from Carlos Martinez in the process.
Now imagine if Collins wasted Thor in that 18 inning game, instead of Matheny wasting Martinez; you would have lost you mind. But it’s Matheny, so it’s ok.
I agree with you that Parnell is not the 8th inning guy ( Mejia or preferably Montero is ), and some of his moves look bad, but the results are kind of 50/50.
The Mets left 25 men on base in that 18 inning game. Don’t think that’s the best example of “the right way to play the game.”
Kind of a surface analysis here. Wouldn’t it be better to just go by the minor league conversion line than by comparing him to a varied sampling of other prospects?
Where is the comparison where we run the odds that a career wRC+ 94 hitter in Gerardo Parra has a poor second half?
Filtering out the catchers and MIs was a start, but I still don’t believe Conforto is an equal comparison to every other top 100 guy called up. Just off the top of my head, your sample would include high school tools prospects like Cameron Maybin who aren’t much of a comp for a bat first college guy like Conforto.
FWIW, a 93 wRC+ may not be “much” for most teams but the Mets only have two current regulars hitting above a 96 wRC+ so it would help them out quite a bit, especially if it took at bats away from slugs like Eric Campbell (73), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (69) and John Mayberry Jr (61).
They could still make another addition – either in the MI, or with a guy like Parra who could play in CF over Lagares who is struggling at the plate and nursing an injured arm.
This. Rest of season Steamer has both Venable and Parra projected at 96 wRC+. So if you can get 93 wRC+ from Conforto, that’s probably better than giving up another prospect for such a marginal upgrade.
If the Mets can’t get at least a Jay Bruce level bat, they should just go with Conforto.
The cuddyer signing was and remains one of the most puzzling moves in recent memory. Especially from Alderson. What a predictable disaster
A few writers have talked about a huge split in the FO over Cuddyer, and until the minute they signed him they were telling everyone that they were out because of the draft pick. I’m not convinced it was Alderson’s doing…
Yawn. How many times have we seen the good=Alderson, bad=Jeff Wilpon excuse by anyone who’s a Sandy fanboy??
Alderson doesn’t need this job bad enough to be the front man for Idiot BoyJeff. So, can we stop with this narrative once and for all? Alderson is the head of the baseball operation and he has final say on baseball matters (subject to budget limitations, like any other organization).
While it’s silly to blame every bad deal on the Wilpons, their purported meddling in baseball decisions is not limited to the Alderson regime.
I could care less about the narrative or whether anyone feels sorry for Alderson. Why people on both sides get hung up on this I have no idea…
The fact of the matter is the FO is still split, and anyone who pays attention to all the contradictory information that comes out can easily see it. It’s been a problem for many years…
Remove Alderson and what you’re going to be left with is John Ricco, who’s Jeff Wilpon’s right-hand man. So I don’t feel sorry for Alderson, and I don’t care what his motivations are…
The part that puzzled me most is his signing was a half measure. It would be a lot more tolerable combined with the team adding a legit SS.
Very few “available” shortstops have been outperforming Tejada at this point
I think they had some Jason Bay bobbleheads sitting around and just needed to sign someone who kind of looked like him to unload them.
Conforto, in my opinion, needs to face some of those crafty veterans pitching in AAA before he is near complete product. Baseball is a game in which experience is far more valuable than in other sports where sheer athleticism is so dominant. I am frustrated, like every other Mets fan, with the Mets offensive impotency but the front office should not push the panic button and rush someone who is not ready to come up and be successful.
Aren’t a member Panic City like the rest of us.
Can anyone comment on how Citi Field plays for a guy like Conforto, in terms of his handedness, spray tendencies, and swing? Always felt that a prospects future home field was a pretty big deal, as whether it would help or hurt their future production. For instance, Target Field does not play well for left-handed power, but does play fairly well for right-handed power bats. In which case, Miguel Sano fits well in the Twins home park. Just one example, but am curious of how people feel Citi Field will effect Conforto’s power, thoughts?
Generally Citi is brutal on RH pull power, LH not as drastic, moving of the fences twice has helped. It hasn’t affected Duda, Granderson either. I think it (Citi) helps all field approach with its wide gaps and deeper power alleys. Murphy seems to have benefited within its confines.
For what it’s worth; the organization typically encourages the all field approach from LH in Savannah, where Grayson Stadium can can mess with a players head. He skipped the level, though he probably should have debuted there last season
Yeah, love Conforto for the future. Probably won’t be much of a help this year. Mets have enough pieces to be malleable in the moves they make at the deadline, and over the winter.
Mike Trout didn’t have a sparkling debut.
Hater, there is no sin in that man.
jk
You write about Conforto’s questionable defense like the Mets have had Alex Gordon playing left field. They’ve gotten average or worse defense out of there all year. If Conforto can hit above league averages, it’ll be a huge boost and no one will even care about his defense.
From the column:
&
The things is you have to take into account what he’s replacing. With Michael Cuddyer injured the Mets other options are LH Kirk Nieuwenhuis (69 wRC+), RH John Mayberry Jr. (61 wRC+), RH Eric Campbell (73 wRC+) and LH Darrell Ceciliani (59 wRC+). The odds of Conforto exceeding their production level is extremely high. Furthermore, if the Mets were to trade for an OF, they still have the RH Juan Lagares and his wRC+73.
So even if Conforto only produces a 89-93 wRC+ for the remainder of the season that’s still 20-30 points higher than their alternatives.
Calling Conforto up while subsequently dealing for CF to platoon with Lagares should substantially increase their offensive output and dare I say make their lineup above average if d’Arnaud and Wright return to the lineup.
The thing is that those guys are likely to exceed their own performance thus far. You’re quoting their 2015 wRC+, right? Kirk’s at 59 this year, but 93 in his career. Mayberry at 61 now, but ZIPs and Steamer both project him for the mid 80s. Campbell’s at 73 this year, but was at 97 last year. Projections have him in the low 90s.
So if Conforto produces an 89-93 wRC+ in 2015, that’s about what the Mets should already expect to get out of the guys on their roster.
The statement that Conforto can exceed existing production has no basis in fact at all.
For example, look at what Eric Campbell did in AAA this year. He was as good of a minor league hitter than Conforto is, probably better. I don’t know how you look at Campbell and Conforto and just assume that Conforto is going to exceed Campbell’s production.
So…Conforto can’t be compared to Schwarber…at all? I know Schwarber (same age, same draft class) had more minor league atbats…and certainly has the edge over Conforto as far as readiness.
Schwarber has absolutely raked coming out of the gate. I really don’t believe there is a HUGE gap between the two. Both mature hitters with sound approaches. Conforto….going 2-2 in the Futures game (solid hits) off a lefty and righty with fairly nasty stuff. Tiniest of sample sizes…but impressive none the less. I have little doubt he would give the Mets more competitive atbats than several guys presently in the lineup. And the idea that his development would be set back markedly by failing at the ML level for a couple of weeks? I dunno. The Mets can evaluate if he’s that weak mentally.
*So Conforto can’t be compared to Schwarber at all.
You can compare them all you want. Schwarber has the better eye and more power so there really is a pretty big gap. Schwarbers a better hitter than bryant
Let’s wait 2 weeks before putting him in the hall of frame. Most Cubs homers had baez in the same hall after 2 weeks
Hall of fame? Hes a better hitter than conforto thats clear. And hes a better hitter than bryant with bryant having more raw power which most scouts will agree with. If you feel that bryant is a hall of famer ok then. But he performed better than bryant at every level with a higher walk rate and lower k rate.
You could just bring him up for a week and see how it’s going. Of course, very short sample size, but wouldn’t it be worth a shot? Especially because, as Roleosmurf says, he’s better than what they’ve got now?
Think the Mets need to go for it all and get Justin Upton, Will Venable and/or a Ben Zobrist type if they want to have a chance at making the playoffs this year.
How does Ben Zobrist get mentioned in the same group as Justin Upton ?
Can everyone just stop it with Ben Zobrist already ? Giving up anybody above A ball for Zobrist ( and not Amed Rosario either ) is a joke.
Upton ought to be signed as a FA. As a rental I don’t care so much, unless you give up next to nothing.
On the other hand, the Mets couldn’t cough up 2 mil for Uribe, so getting Upton is a fantasy.
What’s your beef with Zobrist? He’s a versatile fielder and can actually hit. Also, he’s got the same wRC+ as Justin Upton this year…
There’s been a lot of talk about the Mets adding an outfielder to make a run, but how much of that is driven by the fact that (a) they are in a piss poor division, and (b) the Mets postseason drought and their eager and great fans makes it a popular thing to talk about?
It seems to me that the Mets are more than an outfield move or two from being a real contender in the postseason.
All this amounts to nothing but a really strong reason to ask if it makes sense to rush your best prospect, and if it is worth giving up what they will have to in prospects to get the bat that they need. I suppose I just played captain obvious a little bit, but I’ve just seen most of these discussions omit the very real possibility that the Mets are more than an outfield tweak away from contending. I’m hope I’m wrong, because even as a Braves fan I’m really pulling for the Mets to get some luck and success.
Can’t be worse than Cuddyer, I’m all for inserting youth and enthusiasm over ‘experience’.
I recently attended my first “Harvey Day” at Citi Field, and as luck would have it, I witnessed Harvey’s first big-league homer. Lucas Duda hit an impressive opposite field home run in that game, and it surprisingly came against a lefty. The concessions were good, good seats surprisingly affordable (due to a matchup vs. the Diamondbacks), and talking baseball with the other fans was much better than at other ballparks I’ve been to. All-around, it was a great experience at a beautiful ballpark. I enjoyed it more than games I’ve attended at Yankee Stadium, when all things are considered, i.e., taking train to the park, hanging out with other baseball fans, buying concessions, easily found seats, view from seats, etc.
I am not a Mets fan, but I am really rooting for them to have a relevant season. If they don’t get too reckless with trades, theirs is a rotation of: DeGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, and Matz for at least the next couple of years. Truly an enviable collection of pitching talent. As a Bluejays fan, I was enraged when Syndergaard was traded in the Dickey deal, and even more so now that we could really use a pitcher even half as good.
Regarding Conforto, it appears it would be a mistake to call him up for all the reasons cited in this article. But, the Mets need to add a multiple bats in a bad way. Teams that have Wilmer Flores hitting cleanup will not score many runs. The problem is, what bats are available? Will Cespedes or Bruce help them enough to make a difference? Bruce is a terrible hitter outside of that bandbox he plays in and is below average defensively. Cespedes is good defensively and would certainly be an upgrade at the plate— he may be a great fit, but I have a feeling the Tigers will want more than the Mets are willing to give up (Matz?).
I don’t foresee the Mets working out a deal for any notable mid-to-high-WAR player, and thus they will be forced to roll the dice on Conforto being ready. The truth is, their lineup has been so bad that even if Conforto can beat the expectations of this article and be an average player right away, he would be an upgrade over most of the players in the current Met lineup.
They need Conforto to play at at least an average level, AND separately add another hitter, AND avoid further injuries to anybody, in order to compete for the wild-card at the end of the season.
Bob Klapisch is reporting the Mets will promote Conforto if Cuddyer goes on the DL, which seems very likely at this point.
As a Mets fan, I am excited to watch the debut of the young kid and hope he plays so well they will be forced to keep him up all year. But I also have realistic expectations, know that he can struggle, and understand that even if he does well, he may not be enough to overcome the offensive ineptitude of some of the other players or Terry Collins’ lackluster, head-scratching managing.
Still, it will be exciting to watch him make his debut.