The FIP statistic was created because of the inherent shortcomings of ERA; so much that was reflected in the traditional pitchers’ statistic was totally out of their control, and the new metric credited and debited hurlers for that which they did. As it turns out, FIP isn’t perfect either, as not all types of batted-ball contract are created equal. Still, FIP is preferable to ERA in just about every way imaginable, and is a much better anchor upon which to base pitcher evaluations. In any given year, however, there are pitchers who are much better (or worse) than both their ERA and FIP, once you adjust for quality of batted ball contact allowed.

A couple weeks back, we looked at Jake Odorizzi and Drew Hutchison, two pitchers who were much better than both their ERA and FIP in 2014. Today, let’s look at the two ERA-qualifying NL starters who were most significantly worse than both their ERA and FIP in 2014: Cole Hamels and Henderson Alvarez. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello, and welcome to something we’ve already done. Two months ago, I asked you what you thought of the American League team projections, then I followed that up by asking you what you thought of the National League team projections. Shortly thereafter, I analyzed all the results, and, what fun we had. What number of things we learned, about ourselves and one another.

I had an idea then I’d be re-doing the same project. Max Scherzer, for example, was still a free agent at that point. Same with James Shields. There have been trades and injuries. There’s been some added roster clarity. There’ve been a couple months of critical thought. And, very importantly, our projections page now includes ZiPS, in a 50/50 blend with Steamer. Previously, everything was based on Steamer and Steamer alone, and I know some of you have very strong opinions about that. Now Steamer’s been balanced, and our numbers reflect the new inputs.

So now I’m curious where you stand — even more curious than I was at the end of December. These are the current projected standings. They’re based on two projection systems and on the depth charts maintained by a group of FanGraphs authors. You can navigate to all the individual depth charts here, and while there will surely be injuries and while there will surely be waiver claims, it’s unlikely the league landscape changes significantly before Opening Day. So how do you feel about your favorite team’s projection? Does it seem right on, a little off, or somehow outlandish? There are polls, so many polls, embedded below, just begging for your participation, but hopefully I have made this post pretty easy to follow. Even though this time around I’ve combined both leagues into one huge polling maelstrom, if you get overwhelmed, I think it’s your own fault.

I’ll analyze the results before very long. There will only be results if you guys help me out! Do that, please. Participation was awesome the last time around. I’m hoping for a repeat.

Read the rest of this entry »

We all know Pedro Alvarez had a pretty rough year in 2014, as he hit just 18 home runs, half of his total of 36 in 2013. That was almost the whole story, as hitting home runs (usually impressive, towering ones) is what Pedro Alvarez does well. Unfortunately, he happened to time the failure of the thing he does well with the continued failure of the thing he has never done well — making ignominious throwing errors at third base — thereby forcing the playoff-bound Pirates to take his glove out of the infield (and bat out of the lineup) by platooning him toward the end of the year.

What is less publicized is that Alvarez made some plate discipline strides last year, posting career-best walk and strikeout rates (10.1% and 25.4%, respectively), so 2014 wasn’t all bad. In fact, if you were an extremely optimistic person, you might say that 2014 was an important year for El Toro, as he seemed to make adjustments to improve the glaring holes in his plate approach. However, entering his age-28 season in 2015, a realist would say Alvarez is now facing a crucial test: given his defensive shortcomings and struggles against left-handed pitching, the prospects of a bounce-back campaign at the plate aren’t just a nice expectation, they’re now more of a necessity.

With Ike Davis out of the picture, the Pirates’ plan is to have Alvarez play first base, getting his bat back in the lineup and allowing him to almost never have to throw the ball – though you get the sense his leash as a starter might not be all that long. Let’s look into what was behind Alvarez’ power decline in 2014, and if his plate discipline improvements will help drive a return to form.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a fascinating and volatile starting rotation in New York. CC Sabathia’s been awesome before, but he’s got injury questions. Same goes for Masahiro Tanaka. Same goes for Michael Pineda. Same, to some extent, goes for Ivan Nova. Nathan Eovaldi has fewer of the injury questions. Just last year he was an out shy of 200 innings. But Eovaldi’s still trying to get close to his ceiling. The upside for the other guys comes from their health. Eovaldi’s upside is somewhere in his arm.

And the Yankees, and Larry Rothschild, are committed to bringing that upside out into daylight. The current mission: polish Eovaldi’s third strikeout pitch. Before I get any deeper, I’d like to acknowledge Matt Tobin, who got me back thinking about Eovaldi in the first place. I want to talk some about the stuff we know he has, and I want to talk some about the pitch he might soon have. It’s the pitch that, very sincerely, might make all the difference.

Read the rest of this entry »

Contract extensions for younger players have been on the rise in recent years. Over the past three springs, 38 players with under six years of service have signed extensions buying out free agent years. Twenty-four of those 38 contract extensions were signed by players who had yet to reach arbitration. Eight contract extensions have gone to starting pitchers and seven out of those eight pitchers had not reached arbitration, with Homer Bailey as the lone exception.

Here are the extensions given to pre-arbitration eligible pitchers over the last three springs, with Julio Teheran’s Valentine’s Day deal included as well, from MLB Trade Rumors.
Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the ninth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference took place in Boston, and I was lucky enough to be invited to be part of the baseball panel — along with Sandy Alderson, Ben Lindbergh, Dan Brooks, and Jonah Keri — on Saturday morning. I enjoyed our conversation, but I’ll mostly leave it up to others to recap that conversation, since I’m likely a bit biased by being part of the panel. There were some other parts of the conference that I thought were worth discussing, however.

For instance, on Friday afternoon, Commissioner Manfred took the stage for an hour long interview with Brian Kenny. While the commissioner has been making the media rounds since taking over, and has established some talking points that he repeated during this conversation, there were also some interesting points made during the conversation. Among the things that stood out to me from Manfred’s comments, which I’m going to paraphrase below:

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

You’re 11 years old. You toss your flattened “Piña Mango” Capri Sun pouch to the floor of your mother’s dog hair riddled Honda Odyssey and pull the door handle that activates the painfully slow automatic sliding door. As the door creeps along and the heat of the mid-July sun begins to fill the smelly minivan, you grab your sweet airbrushed helmet and -7 Easton Stealth aluminum bat from the backseat and race towards the dusty fields.

As you begin warming up with your teammates by playing a bit of catch (see: chase balls thrown over your head and down that stupid hill into the woods), you can’t help but begin scouting the other team. “Those kids are huge,” you think to your prepubescent self. Your attention is drawn to one child in particular, due in part to his hulking stature but also to the audible POP! of his partner’s glove. With each subsequent throw and POP! of the glove, you and your entire team begin to quiver in your size-7 Mizuno youth baseball cleats, questioning your own talent, self-worth, and ultimate place in this world. POP! Without doing anything, he’s already gotten in your head.

That child is Giancarlo Stanton.
Read the rest of this entry »

Don’t screw this up, Marco Estrada. Just don’t.

That’s not how you’d expect an article about a team that’s clearly trying to contend in 2015 would start, and you’ll understand why it does a little later on. There’s only ever been one article focusing on Estrada on the front page of FanGraphs, and that came back in 2012. This isn’t going to be another. I promise. This is maybe going to be about the fun mark the Blue Jays could potentially set if Estrada never makes a start for them this season, and what that might mean for the playoff dreams. Read the rest of this entry »

Ellis Valentine knows what Josh Hamilton is going through. Valentine battled substance abuse during his playing days, in the 1970s and 1980s, and now works as a certified drug counselor. Hamilton – assuming the reports are true – recently suffered a relapse in his own struggles with addiction.

Valentine has been clean for nearly three decades, and he’s been helping others fight their demons for nearly as long. He’s offered to help the troubled Angels’ slugger, but Hamilton’s handlers have kept him at arm’s length.

“People come to me all the time and ask, ‘Why don’t you work with Josh Hamilton?’ Valentine told me. “I say, ‘I’d love to try — I have tried — but I can’t get close to him.’ I have a lot of compassion for Josh, but the people surrounding him don’t want me around.”

Valentine works out of Dallas and tried reaching out to Hamilton multiple times when the outfielder played for the Texas Rangers. Repeatedly rebuffed, Valentine actually wrote a letter to himself, in 2010, chronicling his failed attempts to lend assistance.

If Hamilton were to allow Valentine the opportunity, he’d receive some tough love. The erstwhile Expo – he represented Montreal in the 1977 All-Star game — was passionate when offering an opinion on what Hamilton has to do. The advice was shaped by personal experience as well as clinical training.

“Somewhere along the line, Josh Hamilton has to grow up,” said Valentine. “I was 31 years old before I filled out my first tax form. I was making hundreds of thousands of dollars, but I had attorneys, my agent – I had all these people to do things for me, so I was allowed to just go out and get high and be in la-la land. Read the rest of this entry »