Archive for Daily Graphings

Kris Bryant is almost universally hailed as the best prospect in baseball, and for what absolute little spring stats count for, he’s got a 1.561 OPS in spring training. He destroyed Triple-A in a half season of play in 2014, just like he did at every level since he was drafted No. 2 overall in 2013, putting up a 194 (!) wRC+ in 860 minor league plate appearances. The Cubs traded incumbent third baseman Luis Valbuena to Houston this winter in an obvious move to make room for Bryant, even if they won’t admit it.

Bryant is unquestionably ready for the big leagues — all four of our projection systems have him for between a 129-132 wRC+ — and yet, there’s almost no chance that he’ll actually be on the Cubs’ Opening Day roster. Enjoy Mike Olt and Tommy La Stella for the first two weeks, Cubs fans. This is so, so dumb. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Middlebrooks is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to explaining his unfulfilled potential in Boston. The 26-year-old third baseman is hesitant to blame injuries – no one wants to be seen as an excuse-maker — but there’s no denying his familiarity with the trainer’s table. Wrist, finger, leg, back – he’s been on the disabled list four times in three years, and on numerous occasions has played hurt.

Middlebrooks is a Padre now, having come to San Diego in exchange for Ryan Hanigan this past December. He’s also – at least for the moment – unencumbered by malady. I asked if injuries were the root cause of his uneven performances in a Red Sox uniform.

“No, of course not,” responded Middlebrooks. “That hasn’t been the only thing. There’s a big learning curve when you’re a young player. You’re learning pitching. There are guys adjusting to you and figuring out your weaknesses. It’s that cat-and-mouse game we always talk about.”

It’s hard for a cat to catch a mouse when he’s hobbled, and Middlebrooks has a plodding .695 OPS in 232 big-league games. He has the potential to do much more, particularly in the slugging department. Prior to his 2014 power outage – just two dingers — he had 32 home runs in 660 at bats. A mechanical adjustment may help him invigorate his long-ball stroke. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m always curious about what goes on inside a player’s head, post-game, when they’ve delivered a monster performance — but then their team ends up losing. Yeah, yeah: half-naked at the locker most every ballplayer will preach that none of it matters without that W. But, I mean, some of these individual performances are really good, and it takes some significant unraveling on the part of the other 24 players for the team to still end up with the L.

Here are profiles of the 10 best individual games in 2014, by WPA, that ended up in a loss. This time I’ll look at the five best pitching performances in a loss and next time I’ll look at the five best position player performances in a loss. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I went into the best bargain position players for 2015, using projected WAR and salary figures to find out who is likely to give teams the least cost per win. Today, we’re going to go over starting pitching, and see where the bargains can be found in the groups of pitchers both pre-and-post arbitration. Thanks to our awesome, ever-active commenters chipping in on the piece from yesterday (you guys are awesome), we’re also going to hone the calculation a bit to look at the surplus WAR value and get some of the low-priced bias out of the sample.

First of all, it should be noted that this is just going to pertain to starting pitching. Relief pitching is something to tackle for another day, as I believe it should be grouped separately from the starters in a study like this. As I did yesterday, I’ve taken contract data for the 2015 season, merged it with ZiPS WAR projections, and then calculated each player’s cost, in dollar value, per win.

Again, the sample is separated into two groups, those who have reached above-league minimum deals (generally through free agency or arbitration) and those who haven’t. For those who haven’t, I’ve simply set their contract as the league minimum, $507,500. This can vary slightly — each team deals with pre-arbitration pay raises differently, and always in a clandestine manner – but it’s a small enough change to barely influence the data. There is one exception for pre-arbitration players: if a player has negotiated a contract with their team above the league minimum (so they actually show up on the contract reports we have), they will show up in the first group. This didn’t come up often, but it’s best we’re all on the same page.

Let’s begin. First we’re going to look at the first group of starting pitchers — these are mostly the players who have reached free agency or arbitration. I’ll present these findings in both graph and table form: here’s the graph comparing salary vs. projected 2015 WAR for our top 30 starting pitchers:

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Jered Weaver is already having his spring velocity scrutinized. Weaver himself doesn’t want to answer questions about it, and he’s issued frequent reminders that there are more important things than fastball speed, and he’s right. Weaver has never lit up the radar gun, and he’s still toward the front of a big-league rotation, even though he’s dropping into the mid-80s. Location trumps everything, and Weaver is a location pitcher. If he can locate, he’ll be fine.

But there’s no denying the bigger truth here. Weaver has been progressively losing strength, and he no longer seems like the ace he used to be. With his max velocity dropping, he’s working with a reduced margin of error, and the result is that Weaver’s become more vulnerable. Earlier in his career, he worked to conquer his vulnerabilities. Now he’s got new ones, and at 32, it’s not like he’s still ascending toward his peak. At this point, Weaver is still a perfectly fine starter on a contending team, but it’s worth thinking about how he’s used. He isn’t a guy you can expect to be successful in any situation. He isn’t a Clayton Kershaw. He isn’t a Corey Kluber. He isn’t the old Jered Weaver.

The Angels’ intention is to get back to the playoffs. They’re plenty good enough, and some of their division rivals have taken a step back. Odds are, the Angels and Mariners will be going neck and neck in the AL West, and so any little advantage might end up mattering. Weaver is going to be one of the Angels’ five starters. One thing they could do is just run him out there every five days, no matter what. But what if Weaver were more carefully managed? What if we were to try to optimize a Jered Weaver pitching schedule?

If Weaver were just any old guy, I don’t think it would be that big a deal. But there are things about him, things worth keeping in mind. See, Weaver, historically, has loved pitching in Anaheim. That’s not unusual — the ballpark plays pitcher-friendly. But Weaver’s been somewhat extreme. Over his career, he’s allowed 2.9 runs per nine innings at home, against 4.0 runs per nine innings on the road. Over just the last five years, the gap is 2.5 against 3.8. Weaver gives up a lot of fly balls, and when he’s pitching at home, the overwhelming majority of those fly balls just die. On the road, they’ve been a lot more likely to get over a fence.

With Weaver, then, you want him pitching at home. Beyond that, if at all possible, you want him pitching at home in sunny matinees. It seems like his delivery makes the ball difficult for lefties to pick up. And speaking of lefties — Weaver’s seen a lot more of them over time. Some of this is just the context of his opponents, but some is also the perception of increased vulnerability. Weaver has been most vulnerable against lefties on the road. His home/road splits are predominantly due to his performances against left-handed hitters.

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

The art and science of swing mechanics is largely opaque even to those among us who watch the game regularly and/or played competitively as amateurs. Augmenting the confusion is the surfeit of coaches who, though well-intentioned, provide instruction that is sometimes in direct contradiction of those properties which physics itself suggests ought to appear within the optimal swing.

Dan Farnsworth is a swing instructor currently based in Los Angeles (although relocating to New York soon). He’s written a number of posts for FanGraphs on swing mechanics — including, most notably, a thorough documentation of the improvements J.D. Martinez had made to his swing a few months before he was signed by Detroit and proceeded to produce a nearly four-win season in 480 plate appearances.

What follows is series of three brief conversations with Farnsworth regarding swings by Cubs prospects Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant — which threesome recorded consecutive home runs, in that order, during Tuesday’s Cactus League game against Cleveland (box). In each case, the author has allowed his unbridled naivete to guide the course of conversation and relied on Farnsworth to provide clarity.

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Joey Gallo is one of baseball’s most promising prospects, but he’s also one of its most polarizing. On the plus side, he’s got major power. He sported an isolated power of .344 between High-A and Double-A last year, which was the highest mark of any minor leaguer with at least 300 plate appearances. But he’s also hindered by chronic contact problems. He strikes out more than almost any prospect we’ve seen before — or at least anyone who’s gone on to be a successful big-leaguer. According to Minor League Central, Gallo’s 64% Zone-Contact% was the lowest of any minor-league hitter with data available from last year.

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I think you could say 2014 was the year Garrett Richards started making sense. He was supposed to strike a bunch of guys out. He was supposed to pitch like a staff No. 1. He was supposed to be awesome, and last year, he finally became awesome, taking over an Angels rotation with the more established arms in decline. Richards hasn’t answered all the questions, and his significant injury last August raised a new one, but at this point, it feels like Richards is what he was supposed to be. And he’s maybe even more remarkable than you thought.

It’s easy to see the big gain in strikeouts. It’s easy to see the drop in FIP and xFIP. It’s easy to see the increase in whiffs. Here now are last year’s top five qualified pitchers in slugging percentage against:

1. Garrett Richards, .261 SLG
2. Clayton Kershaw, .289
3. Felix Hernandez, .303
4. Chris Sale, .305
5. Adam Wainwright, .310

The belief is that Kershaw had the most insane season. And Kershaw did have the most insane season, overall. This is looking at just one thing. But Richards had a big edge in slugging, and he had that edge while pitching in the more hitter-friendly league. The likely reason? It’s the intuitive reason.

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Bryce Harper was in the news a couple weeks ago. It had nothing to do with his performance — in 2015, he hadn’t yet performed. It had nothing to do with his health — in 2015, he hadn’t yet gotten injured. It had everything to do with his words. Harper generates three kinds of stories, and this was another one about him not hiding his confidence. Harper spoke openly about how much he believes in his current cast of teammates, and while every player would claim to believe in his cast of teammates, Harper has a way of drawing extra attention, and he didn’t beat around any bushes. Harper went so far as to talk about the disadvantage of facing the Nationals’ starting staff in the playoffs.

Of course, while we like our players to be humble, it’s not like Harper was talking about anything we hadn’t already thought and said ourselves. The Nationals do seem like a juggernaut. The Nationals do seem like they should take the NL East running away. The Nationals do have a rotation that would be terrifying to face in October. Say what you will about Harper’s personality, but he just said what most people already believe. There’s no such thing as a playoff shoo-in this early in the year, but the Nationals are about as close as it gets.

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The Hector Olivera situation is just really strange. As Kiley broke down over the weekend, the market has been saturated with questionable information, and Olivera ended up hiring new representation after the early offers apparently didn’t match the lofty thresholds that were being floated publicly. Toss in his unusual health track record and the fact that this has dragged into mid-March, and the entire situation remains particularly odd.

And that’s before we even get to the teams involved (or not) in the bidding. Olivera is projected as a second baseman or a third baseman, depending on the acquiring team’s need on the infield, but the teams with the most glaring needs at those positions seem mostly uninterested. No contenders need a second baseman more than the White Sox, Blue Jays, or Angels, but none of them have been reported to be particularly interested in signing him as a middle infield upgrade. On the other hand, the Braves have been strongly connected to Olivera, despite the fact that they’re likely to be one of the league’s worst teams in 2015, and at age-30, Olivera isn’t exactly a long-term upside play.

But perhaps no team linked to Olivera makes less sense than the Dodgers. With Howie Kendrick at second base and Juan Uribe at third base, the team doesn’t really have an open spot for a player who is likely going to command $10 million or more per season, and it seems unlikely that Olivera would want to spend a year on the bench waiting for a position to open up. Of course, injuries do happen, and the Dodgers have enough money to stockpile depth, so the presence of Kendrick and Uribe shouldn’t automatically eliminate LA from signing a talented player.

However, when reading scouting reports about Olivera’s expected performance, I can’t shake the idea that the Dodgers already have this player; he just goes by the name of Justin Turner.

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