Archive for Daily Graphings

Jose Bautista Is Doing More With Less

Note: This was written just before Monday night’s game, in which Bautista had three hits and a homer. So, most of his 2014 stats are even better than they appear below.

One of the more impressive active streaks in baseball ended recently, and I bet you didn’t know anything about it. No, not the end of Nolan Arenado’s 28-game hitting streak, as nice as that was. Jose Bautista went 0-4 in a loss to the Angels on Sunday, failing to reach base for the first time all year after doing so 37 consecutive times. It’s the longest streak since Michael Cuddyer (!) did so 46 consecutive times last year; it’s the longest to start a season since Albert Pujols had 42 in 2008; it’s tied with Carlos Delgado for the longest in Blue Jays history.

That’s interesting, but it’s not that interesting on its own, really. Bautista wasn’t even halfway to Ted Williams‘ record of 84. Orlando Cabrera once got on base 63 games in a row. Kevin Millar, 52. It’s hard to be a poor player and continually get on base, but it doesn’t on its own make you a great player. What’s interesting about what Bautista just did is that it’s a small part of the larger whole: After back-to-back seasons that were very good but hardly up to the standard he set during his insane 2010-11 run, and at age 33, Bautista is once again absolutely destroying baseballs, currently sitting with the fourth-best wRC+ in the game. Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Explain Eric Hosmer’s WAR

Eric Hosmer is still sitting on one home run as we approach the one-fourth point of the regular season. He hasn’t hit fewer than 14 dingers yet in a year, so it’s clear that Hosmer’s still looking for his power stroke. But don’t make the mistake of believing that Hosmer has yet to make a positive contribution — he’s got a 120 wRC+, which is basically right on what he did a year ago. Let’s keep doing that, comparing last year to this year. The offense has been identical, overall. Hosmer last year was nine runs below average defensively. Hosmer this year is on pace for about -7. So in a sense, Eric Hosmer has been just as good a player. But, last season, Hosmer was worth just over three wins. This season, he’s on pace to be worth just over one win. How do you explain that, when a guy’s been hitting the same and fielding the same? Is WAR losing the mind that it doesn’t have?

That’s one option. Or you could look at WAR’s other, oft-forgotten input. You think about baserunning value when it comes to burners like Billy Hamilton and Jacoby Ellsbury. It’s easy to kind of forget about it when you’re dealing with a first baseman or a DH. But, to this point, according to our leaderboards, Hosmer has been the worst baserunner in baseball, at almost five runs below average, already. That puts him on pace for -21, eclipsing Kendrys Morales‘ recent record of -14 in 2009. Hosmer, presumably, won’t keep up this impossible pace. Previously, for his career, he was actually above average. But how did things get to this point? How has Hosmer already cost his team that many runs in such a small sample of games?

There are .gifs, and, unfortunately, they are big.

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Baseball’s Most and Least Homerable Pitches

By now you might’ve read that, Sunday afternoon, Clayton Kershaw gave up a home run on his curveball. Clayton Kershaw does not often give up a home run on his curveball. According to some sources, it was the first time Kershaw’s curve had been hit out in the regular season, ever. This is a disputed instance, from April 2011. We do know, for certain, Kershaw gave up a playoff dinger on his curve in 2009. Matt Holliday hit it, but unfortunately for him, the same game for Holliday became differently eventful in the later innings. Also, 2009 was before Clayton Kershaw became Clayton Kershaw. But anyway! The point is that Kershaw’s curve doesn’t get taken yard. It got taken yard, so that’s interesting.

Lots of people have come at this from the Kershaw side. Not a lot of attention has been paid to the Brandon Hicks side. Hicks is 28 and a former prospect, and a big reason why he’s never gotten regular big-league playing time is because he hasn’t been able to consistently hit non-fastballs. Since 2002, 1,308 position players have batted in the majors at least 100 times. Hicks has posted the third-lowest contact rate, at 59%. According to PITCHf/x, Hicks has swung at 172 non-fastballs and whiffed at 60% of them. Hicks is an all-or-nothing sort, and maybe that’s precisely the sort that was going to take Kershaw’s curve out. But prior to the homer, it’s not like Hicks looked comfortable against Kershaw breaking balls.

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FG on Fox: Alex Rios on Taking Pitches

During a conversation with Alex Rios about the changes he’s made over his career, the Texas Rangers outfielder made a comment about an accepted truth in baseball. His comment was seemingly simple but hid one of the more complicated aspects of the game.

We were talking about his bad year in Chicago in 2011, when he hit .227 with 13 homers and 11 stolen bases, and his wRC+ was 40 percent below the league average. When pushed to come up with a reason for his renaissance since that low, Rios could only think of one thing he’d really changed.

“I was trying to get deeper into the count and see more pitches and be a little more patient at the plate, to make myself hit a better pitch,” he said of 2012, when his career got back on track.

Rios did take more pitches per plate appearance in 2012 than he did in 2011 — .05 pitch more per plate appearance, or about 30 more pitches over the course of a full season. Not a ton more pitches, but more. And it’s a trend he’s continued since, to the point that he’s now back above league average in the stat (3.85).

Read the rest on FoxSports.com


The Reimagining of a Game of Baseball

On Friday night, I had a crazy thought. Over the last few days, I’ve kind of fallen in love with this crazy thought, and the two people I’ve shared it with kind of loved it too. Though they were drinking at the time I shared it with them, so now I’m going to present it to a group of (probably) sober readers, and see if my crazy thought maybe isn’t so crazy.

A baseball game is nine innings, and occasionally more. Okay, rain makes it so that it can also last fewer than nine innings as well, but outside of weather problems forcing an early end, baseball games are nine inning affairs, with the availability of extras if needed. This is the sport we all know and love. But maybe there’s a different version of a baseball game that could be just as great. Or maybe even better.

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Sunday Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Indians, Canseco Earthquake

Grant Balfour plays baseball like a rugby player for a reason. He used to be one. The demonstrative Tampa Bay Rays closer grew up with the game in New South Wales Australia. His yelling – sometimes profanity-laced – comes from a scrum mentality he inherited from his father.

“I played rugby for my school,” said Balfour. “It’s the sport my dad played. He played some rugby league matches at the first-grade level, which is equivalent to the NFL here. He played for the Balmain Tigers, who are now the Wests Tigers. I didn’t pursue a career in rugby – baseball has always been my priority – but I played growing up and still love the game.”

Most Americans aren’t well-informed on the sport, so I asked Balfour to give a brief primer.

“There is rugby and there is also rugby league,” explained Balfour. They’re two different games in Australia, but they’re fairly similar. In rugby league you can be tackled and held. Rugby is more of a continuous game. You form rucks and mauls, and continuously move the ball. There are differences like line outs instead of scrums, but to somebody who doesn’t know the games they look a lot the same.

“There are strategies to both. You have to be tough, but also smart. I think if you can be intense and also in control – if you can have controlled intensity – you can take it over the top. You can’t lose your mind and be crazy. Intensity is something you need to harness.”

Controlled intensity is a good description of Balfour’s demeanor. The 36-year-old righthander is no shrinking violet with a baseball in his hand.

“I’m a guy who doesn’t leave anything on the table,” said Balfour. “I show my passion and my fight, and if my intensity level is up there, so is my focus. I zone in on what I’m doing and get intense about my business. My father was a pretty tough guy and always had the mentality of being a bit of an underdog and a fighter. That mentality is part of being an Australian.”

I asked Balfour if he’s channeling his inner rugby player when he’s firing fastballs and yelling at himself on the mound.

“I think maybe I am,” said Balfour. “The toughness [rugby players] have is the same as you see in the NFL. It takes one kind of man to play a sport like that. There’s some yelling going on in rugby. Like I said, I’m getting myself fired up on the mound. Sometimes I need to take a step back from that, but other times I need to yell.”

——

Koji Uehara isn’t as demonstrative as Grant Balfour. The Red Sox closer quietly and methodically mows down hitters with impeccable command and a devastating splitter. That wasn’t always the case.

Uehara was a different pitcher when he burst onto the scene in Japan. Playing for the Yomiuri Giants, he went 20-4 with a 2.09 ERA in his 1999 rookie season. He was a starter who didn’t throw a split-finger fastball.

“I was throwing a lot of sliders then,” Uehara said through a translator. “I threw fastballs and sliders.”

Uehara twice won the Sawamura Award – Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award – in his early years in Nippon Professional Baseball [NPB]. How might he have done pitching in MLB at the time? The righthander was reluctant to say.

“I don’t think about it that way,” said Uehara. “I don’t like to look back at “if” and “what” kind of things. The only thing I know is that I am able to play at the level I am now because I played in the Japanese professional league.”

His response was similar when I asked if he could have succeeded in MLB without a splitter.

“I’ve never really thought of it that way,” answered Uehara. “[But] as soon as I started throwing the split, I forgot how to throw the slider.”

Strikeout rates are lower in Japan than they are here. Did the difference in style of play impact his pitching approach?

“As far as aggressiveness, I don’t think there is much of a difference between here and Japan,” said Uehara. “The hitters here have more power, so I did have to adjust to that. I attack them aggressively and not much differently.”

MLB baseballs aren’t identical to the ones used in Japan. Does that make a difference?

“They’re more slippery here, so I have to adjust to that,” said Uehara. “What I use to get a better grip changed. More pine tar.”

More pine tar?

“I’m joking,” laughed Uehara.

NPB’s posting system isn’t a laughing matter. Uehara was 24 years old when he graduated from the Osaka University of Health and Sport Sciences. He could have come to the United States. Instead he signed with Yomiuri, who subsequently held his rights for nine years.

“There weren’t as many Japanese major league players over here [in 1999],” explained Uehara. “So there were some non-baseball-related things I wasn’t quite sure about. I also wasn’t really confident I would do well here. But I definitely wanted to come here earlier than I did. Unfortunately, I was with a team, the Giants, that didn’t allow players to use the posting system. It is what it is.”

——

Tucker Barnhart almost got the best of Koji Uehara on Tuesday night. The Cincinnati Reds catcher hit a long, towering fly ball in the ninth inning of a tie game at Fenway Park. Shane Victorino caught it in front of the 380-foot marker in right-center field.

Barnart’s blast would have been a home run in 29 of 30 big-league ballparks. Not this one. When it fell just short, the 22-year-old rookie cradled his head in his hands in disbelief along the first base line.

“I crushed it – I hit it as good as I can hit a ball – it just didn’t go out,” Barnhart told me the following day. “The pitch was a fastball middle-in. If I could draw up a homer pitch, that’s about where it was. When I hit it, I immediately started talking to it like a golf shot, like Go! Go!

“Yesterday was the first time I’ve ever been at Fenway. I’m a switch-hitter and we were facing a lefty starter, so I took most of my swings in batting practice righthanded. I only took one round lefthanded, so coming into the at bat I didn’t really know what it took to get the ball out to right field. I hit it really well, but it just kind of hung up there and Victorino ran it down.”

Barnhart has one home run in 19 big-league at bats. He hit it at Great American Ballpark on May 1 versus the Brewers. The one at Fenway traveled a greater distance.

“It was definitely farther than the one I hit at home,” said Barnhart. “It’s 380 to the spot I hit the ball last night, and it’s about 325 or 330 in Cincinnati. This one was probably about 45-50 feet farther. But it comes with the territory. Things even out over the long run.”

I asked Barnhart if he was familiar with Fenway’s red seat. Located in the right field bleachers, it commemorates a home run hit by Ted Williams, in 1946.

“A few of us who had never been here before arrived early for a tour and they were talking about the red seat,” answered Barnhart. “I believe they said it’s 502 feet from home plate. I know I don’t have that in the tank. I saw it out there and it’s definitely not where I was aiming.”

——

Tucker Barnhart was in the Reds lineup because Devon Mesoraco is on the disabled list. Jay Bruce, Aroldis Chapman, Tony Cingrani and Mat Latos are also on the DL. Billy Hamilton wasn’t in the starting lineup in Boston due to a sore wrist.

Do the Reds have enough depth to withstand the injuries, or the talent to earn a playoff spot once everyone is healthy? The team has received plenty of criticism for their lack of moves during the offseason. Shin-Soo Choo departed as a free agent and there were no notable acquisitions.

Given the inflated demands of the free agents on the market, it’s understandable why Walt Jocketty stood pat. That’s not to say he couldn’t have found creative ways to upgrade a talented-yet-flawed team. The Reds general manager feels he did the right thing.

“There weren’t a lot of moves to make,” said Jocketty. “We like our team and we’ve liked our team all along. Unfortunately, we’ve had a number of injuries so people aren’t getting an opportunity to see how good our team is.”

Jocketty’s point is valid. Regardless of what he might have done over the offseason, his squad has been competing without several key pieces. But could he – should he – have made moves?

“I’ve learned to be patient,” said Jocketty. “The worst thing you can do is keep making changes all the time. Then there’s no continuity with your club. You need to have faith in your players and you need to have faith in your manager and staff. I do. It’s just a matter of time until we get all our guys back, and then we’ll see where we are.”

I asked Jocketty if overpaying this past offseason would have negatively impacted future opportunities to improve the team.

“It wasn’t just [will we have money later], it was also ‘Do we have enough money now?,’ responded Jocketty “We’d have loved to have Choo back, but we couldn’t afford him. And there really wasn’t anything else we felt we could do — that we felt we could financially do. Once your club is set, it’s pretty hard to make changes.”

——

When Josh Tomlin was drafted in 2005, his scouting report said he had good range with quick reactions and the hands to play shortstop. His bat was quick. San Diego’s 11th-round pick hit .351 at Angelina Junior College.

Tomlin’s scouting report also said his arm was his best tool, which is a big reason he bypassed signing with the Padres and transferred to Texas Tech. The decision didn’t positively impact his draft status – he was Cleveland’s 19th-round pick in 2006 – but it was the catalyst to a big-league career.

“In junior college, I would come into games from shortstop to pitch the later innings,” said Tomlin. “I had a feel for pitching, but wasn’t ready to make that move yet. When I went to Texas Tech, I’d pitch on Friday night and play short, second, or third on Saturday and Sunday. I realized at that point I had a better chance as a pitcher than I did playing the field.”

The Indians realized it as well. A year earlier the Padres weren’t quite so sure.

“San Diego drafted me as kind of a… I wouldn’t say a two-way player, but it was a situation where I could have played infield in the Padres organization,” said Tomlin. “The transition to pitcher probably would have happened eventually, but I’d have gotten a shot at short had I signed with them.

“When I was drafted by the Indians in 2006, it was ‘We want you as a pitcher; you’re going to be a pitcher.’ It was clearly the right decision. I could swing the bat a little, but I wasn’t going to hit for power. I was going to be a slap guy, and I wasn’t very fast either. From talking to people who have been around the game for a long time, I knew I had a better chance to make it as a pitcher.”

The right-hander clearly went the right route. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t miss playing the field.

“I still have the mentality of an infielder,” admitted Tomlin. “I still love taking ground balls in the infield during BP. It’s probably my favorite thing in the world to do. But knowing how I hit… I swing a wet newspaper. I don’t think I really had a chance to make it to the big leagues as a position player.”

——

Twenty-five years ago the Oakland A’s swept the San Francisco Giants in the Earthquake Series. Mike Gallego remembers it well. An A’s infielder at the time, Gallego was on the field when the Loma Prieta earthquake shook Candlestick Park, and the entire Bay Area, before Game 3. The 1989 World Series was put on hold for 10 days.

In the interim, Jose Canseco caused a disruption of his own. Gallego – now Oakland’s third base coach – told me the story when the A’s visited Boston last weekend.

“After the earthquake hit we were kind of in limbo,” said Gallego “We were wondering if they were going to continue the World Series or not. Tony LaRussa came up with the idea of sending us back to our spring training site in Arizona. That would get us out of the area and keep our minds focused on winning the World Series if it restarted.

“The first day we got to Arizona he said we were going to have closed practices and inter-squad games. He wanted the intensity to be there. He wanted us to take our at bats seriously and play hard. Break up a double play if needed. We all agreed.

“I’m playing shortstop. Dennis Eckersley is on the mound and Jose Canseco is at the plate. Everyone is taking it seriously except for one guy. That’s Jose Canseco. He’s thinking, ‘What are we doing practicing?’

“Jose gets in the box and kind of digs in. He really takes his time. Eckersley is getting ready to throw the pitch and you can see he’s getting a little perturbed waiting. Eck steps off the mound and Canseco is looking out at him, kind of laughing. Then Canseco points out to center field like Babe Ruth. Eck just kind of stood there like, ‘Oh, really?’

“Ron Hassey is catching and gives a Eck a sign for fastball away. Eck shakes. Slider, shakes again. Fastball in, yes. Eckersley rears back and drills Canseco right in the back. Canseco can’t believe it. I can’t believe it. No one can believe it. Canseco charges the mound.

“We didn’t brawl, but everyone was yelling and screaming at each other. This was at our spring training site with nobody in the stands and no media. It was just us in an empty stadium. Tony loved it. It was just the kind of intensity he wanted. I thought to myself, ‘If we get back to the World Series, we’re definitely winning this thing.’”


FG on Fox: The Rockies Strikeout Avoidance

Here and elsewhere, Rob Neyer has discussed, at some length, a trend he refers to as the Strikeout Scourge. Whether you’re for it, against it, or neutral, there’s no denying what’s going on — strikeouts are rising, league-wide.

Right now, strikeouts are happening more frequently than ever. A year ago, they were occuring the most frequently they’d ever been. The year before that, swinging and missing was even more popular. The year before that . . . you get the idea.

Strikeouts are just a common part of the game, and statistical benchmarks you used to consider familiar and stable no longer have the same meaning. Just about everybody is striking out more.
So it’s no longer odd to notice a rising strikeout rate. What’s odd is to notice the very opposite of that, and this brings us to something most curious about the so-far surprising Colorado Rockies.

One of the hottest players out of the gate has been Charlie Blackmon, after spending spring training not sure if he’d have a regular job. Blackmon’s been one of the most valuable players in baseball, and as a component of his success, he’s all but completely stopped striking out. The single most valuable player in baseball, meanwhile, has been teammate Troy Tulowitzki, and he’s also an excellent contact hitter. Nolan Arenado has established a new franchise record with a 28-game hitting streak, and he makes a habit of putting the ball in play. The Rockies have hit the snot out of the ball, and driving that is that they’ve actually hit the ball.

Read the rest on FoxSports.com


Jake Peavy Is Living on the Edge

Generally, when you think of Jake Peavy, you often think “Cy Young winner.” But that was a long time ago. These days, Peavy lives on the edge between “effective enough” and “not fooling anybody.” He is living there because he has become more cautious about living in the heart of the plate, where he used to. His earned run average paints him as one of the better pitchers in the American League, but if you look beyond that there is definitely cause for concern.

It’s no surprise that a pitcher getting on in years would have diminished velocity, particularly one with Peavy’s injury history. And diminished his velocity is. In his last few starts, he has worked his way back up to an average fastball of 90 mph, but that is a far cry from the 92-93 mph heat he was flashing in 2007-2008. Actually, he has been in the 90 mph range for a number of years. According to our PITCHf/x numbers, his first season with an average four-seam fastball under 91 mph was 2011. As his velocity has dropped, he has worked hard to refine his control in order to stay effective. To wit:
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Manny Parra: Brewers Bust Becomes Reliable Reds Reliever

Manny Parra was a phenom-turned-bust with the Brewers. The top-rated pitching prospect in the Milwaukee system in 2008, he battled injuries and inconsistency while logging a 5.12 ERA over five tumultuous seasons. Then he signed with Cincinnati.

Parra has been a reliable reliever since joining the Reds 15 months ago. The 31-year-old southpaw appeared in 57 games last year and struck out 11 batters per nine innings. He’s on a similar pace this season. Health is a big reason for his turnaround, as is a repertoire change. On the suggestion of Bryan Price – at the time the Reds’ pitching coach — Parra ditched his curveball in favor of a slider.

Parra’s relationship with his curveball was every bit as tumultuous as his tenure in Milwaukee. In many respects, it was the curveball that ditched him.

“I lost the feel for my curveball in late 2008, early 2009,” explained Parra. “That really hurt me, because everything else I threw was hard. My fastball was hard and my split was pretty hard. I had nothing to differentiate with, so hitters could get their timing going. If they saw the ball up, they’d let it fly.

“The more I struggled with my curveball, the more I was told to continue throwing fastballs. They said to just trust my fastball, but the more I threw it, the more I got hit. What happened is my lack of command got exposed. I threw enough strikes, but at this level it’s about command and I never had great command of my fastball. I’d always kind of relied on keeping hitters guessing. When I first came up in the minor leagues I was called a 90-mph thumber because I liked to mix it up. Losing that really left me lost.”

Losses followed. Hitters punished Parra, who saw his WHIP balloon to 1.83 in 2009. It was only marginally better in 2010 and 2011. His relationship with his breaking pitch was in serious need of counseling.

“There’s nothing mechanical that’s not also mental,” agreed Parra. “Every move you make starts with your image of it. To me, the two go hand in hand. I feel like I tried everything. A lot of people tried to help me and I worked my butt off to figure it out, but the more I tried the worse it got. Basically, I lost the identity of how I even used to throw.”

Upon divorcing the Brewers, Parra met someone who helped him find a new identity. The result was a parting of ways with his curveball.

“Last year, at the end of spring training, Bryan [Price] and I were talking,” said Parra. “He said he noticed that I accelerate my arm really well, but didn’t really do a whole lot of the manipulation with my curveball. A lot of guys will really try to get around the ball, but when I did that I would get messed up. He wanted me to stay behind the ball and throw a slider, which is mostly like a fastball, only you kind of just throw the outside of it.”

Prior to Price’s intervention, Parra flirted with a pitch similar to a slider. He took a liking to it, but it wasn’t a match made in heaven in the eyes of his old club.

“I started throwing a cutter, but that got axed pretty quick,” explained Parra. “Not by me, but by outside influences. In 2009, I was facing the Pirates and gave up a double on a cutter. I was told not to throw it again.”

Five years later, he’s thriving with the cutter’s cousin. The southpaw is quite fond of his new pitch – he’s throwing it over 40 percent of the time – but memories die hard.

“What’s funny is that my slider looks like a curveball once in awhile, depending on how I release it,” said Parra. “There are times I’ll go. ‘Man, that’s like my old curveball.’ I still have a slider mentality, though.”


San Francisco Meetup: Tonight!

This Thursday, at the Stock in Trade bar in the Marina district in San Francisco, we’re going to have a Dodgers/Giants meetup. We’ll be talking beer and baseball with some of your favorite writers, with a bonus of a former scout and coach to talk mechanics if you like. FanGraphs, BeerGraphs and the First Base Foundation — a foundation that helps make travel sports more affordable for disadvantaged young people while also helping them get into college — are happy to invite you to this gathering of baseball nerds featuring happy hour pricing, some free appetizers, and lots of baseball talk.

Eno Sarris, FanGraphs
Wendy Thurm, FanGraphs
Noah Jackson, First Base Foundation
Jolieba Jackson, First Base Foundation
Blake Smith, BeerGraphs
Howard Bender, Fantasy Alarm
Steve Berman, Bay Area Sports Guy
Taylor Fogelquist, FanMouth
Patrick Newman, NPBTracker
Curse of Benitez, BooleanSabean
Daniel Shaeffer, FanMouth
Daniel Zarchy, GiantsPod

Baseball Meetup FBF_FanGraphs.jpg