Going into today’s Red Sox-Rays game, plate discipline and the strike zone figured to play prominent roles. They did, to a certain degree. Defense — or lack thereof — played a bigger one.

As FanGraphs readers know, Red Sox and Rays hitters are patient at the plate. No team in either league swung at a lower percentage of pitches out of the strike zone than Tampa Bay. Their 0-swing% was just 27.1. The Red Sox were third-lowest at 28.2.

The Rays were more aggressive in the strike zone. The Red Sox swung at 62.4 percent of strikes, the lowest in baseball. Tampa Bay’s 64.8 z-swing% placed them closer to the middle of the pack.

What would that mean for today’s ALDS Game One match-up? Red Sox starter Lester walked 2.83 batters per nine innings this year, but has been known to work long counts and build up high pitch counts. Tampa Bay starter Moore walked 4.59 and has been described as effectively wild.

Before the game, manager Joe Maddon said of Moore, “When he’s kind of like this controlled wildness, they don’t get hits. He may walk a couple of guys, but they don’t hit him. And sometimes he’ll get over the plate, which you’d perceive to be better command, and he gets hit. That’s the problem. He walks this different kind of tightrope.”

As it turned out, Moore — despite pitching better than his line score — walked the gangplank. Early on, it was Lester who was getting a sinking feeling. Not surprisingly, plate discipline and the strike zone came into play. Read the rest of this entry »

Federal district judge Ronald Whyte held a hearing today on Major League Baseball’s motion to dismiss the City of San Jose’s lawsuit, which charges MLB with violating federal and state law by refusing — so far — to permit the Oakland A’s to move to San Jose.

San Jose’s complaint, filed in June, alleges that MLB places unreasonable restrictions on competition by making it difficult — if not impossible — for teams to relocate from one city to another. The City also claims that by refusing to act on the A’s proposal to build a privately-financed ballpark in San Jose, MLB has interfered with the City’s option agreement with the A’s. Under that agreement, the A’s would purchase land from the City for the purpose of building the ballpark, if MLB approved the move.

As I explained in this post in June, the core of the City’s case is founded on federal antitrust law. And therein lie the issues before Judge Whyte today on MLB’s motion to dismiss the complaint: Does MLB’s antitrust exemption still exist? If so, what is the scope of the exemption? Has San Jose even suffered an injury recognized by antitrust law?

Before I get to the details of today’s hearing, a disclosure. As it notes in my bio below, I practiced law for nearly 18 years before moving on to other things at the end of 2010. For most of that time, I practiced with the law firm of Keker & Van Nest in San Francisco, first as an associate, then as a partner. That firm, including senior partner John Keker, represents MLB in this lawsuit. This case arose long after I left the firm. I never worked on or was privy to any information about MLB’s decision-making with respect to the A’s.

I am also a season-ticket holder with the San Francisco Giants and a Giants fan. But I’ve been on record since early 2012 with a proposal for resolving the territorial rights dispute between the Giants and the A’s in a way that allows the A’s to move to San Jose. My personal view is that a financially-vibrant A’s franchise would be good for MLB and the Bay Area and, ultimately, the Giants.

Now, on to the hearing.

Judge Whyte began the proceedings with questions about the existence and scope of baseball’s antitrust exemption. It was clear from his questions that the judge had read the motion papers and the case law in detail. He was prepared with pointed questions for both sides.

Joe Cotchett, who represents the City, addressed the court first. Cotchett argued that the U.S. Supreme Court and lower courts have narrowed the exemption significantly, and that it now covers only the “business of baseball.” Cotchett then argued that the “business of baseball” is limited to “the play on the field” and does not include matters relating to team location and relocation.

John Keker argued for MLB. He told the court that the exemption was alive and well and that the “business of baseball” includes — at a minimum — league structure and organization, franchise location, broadcast agreements, and revenue sharing.

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Starting opposite Max Scherzer in Oakland tonight is going to be Bartolo Colon. That sentence doesn’t sound as crazy as it might’ve before — by this point, we’ve grown re-accustomed to Colon being a starter and pitching effectively. One of the best ERAs in baseball, he had. It’s not that the Colon story isn’t amazing anymore. It is amazing, that he’s back and healthy and pitching like he is in the way that he is. But we appreciate change better than we appreciate stability, and Colon isn’t changing. He pitches like he’s 40, going on 29.

Beyond his size and story, there’s something extreme about Colon: he throws almost exclusively fastballs. Susan Slusser just wrote it up well, and though Colon does have other pitches, and though Colon does have different fastballs, it’s still extraordinarily rare to see a starter with so little speed and break variation. Given his repertoire and ability to locate, Colon is our closest approximation to a starter version of Mariano Rivera. There’s something else too, though, if you dig a little deeper. Another statistical extremity, that’s a result of his approach, as I suppose is always the case.

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Every pitcher is a work in progress, it seems. They get to the park and they figure out what’s working that day and they adjust. But, on some level at least, the hard part is in the rear view mirror for Sonny Gray. The work he put into his mechanics in 2012 is done, and now he’s more tinkering than overhauling. In advance of Saturday’s Game Two start, we talked about his arsenal and changes, both big and small.

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One of the things about advanced metrics is that they can tell you things you might not have guessed. The other day, for example, I wrote about a showdown between Alex Cobb and Danny Salazar, and by some of the numbers, that looked like one hell of a potential duel. Thursday, A.J. Burnett and Adam Wainwright also looked like one hell of a potential duel. Wainwright, people know about — he’d be another year’s Cy Young winner. Burnett, though, was more quietly outstanding, after being dismissed by New York. Wainwright finished with the National League’s third-best FIP. Burnett finished fifth, just in front of Cliff Lee and two of his teammates. On that basis you could argue Burnett is the Pirates’ best starter.

One of the things about A.J. Burnett is that, who knows? We’ve never really had a great measure of starting pitcher inconsistency, but if we did, Burnett would probably be at or near the top of the list. Inconsistency has long been his reputation, and so long as the potential is there for a meltdown, it can never mentally be counted out. And Thursday, Burnett melted down. In what could’ve been a compelling showdown of aces, Wainwright was ahead seven runs before he threw a pitch in the fourth. When the Pirates pulled within six, the Cardinals extended the deficit right back. Both starting pitchers showed up, but only Wainwright did more than that.

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A question was recently asked of  14 players. It doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.

Who is the best player in the game?

Their responses are listed below in alphabetical order.

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Michael Bowden, Chicago Cubs pitcher: “Miguel Cabrera.” [No elaboration.]

Jackie Bradley, Jr. Boston Red Sox outfielder: “The best player in baseball is Mike Trout. He’s got the overall package. It’s not just hitting — and he can definitely hit — but also his defense and his base paths. He’s got the whole package.”

Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles infielder: “Miguel Cabrera. We’re talking about a guy who might win the triple crown again this year. It’s ridiculous that he did it last year and might do it again. He’s hitting about .350 and he’s not even 100 percent healthy. I’d say he’s definitely the best player in baseball right now.”

Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins infielder; “Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter. He separates himself from every other hitter in this league, because he hits for both power and average, which is tough to do. As far as offensive categories, he’s definitely the best. As good as Mike Trout is, he’s also only in his second year. Miggy has been doing it for 10 years. It’s not like he plays a bad third base, either. I‘d have to go with Miggy as the best player in the game.”

Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins pitcher; “Miguel Cabrera. Personally, I don’t know if it’s possible to get him out. He plays a decent third base. He has a lot of power and can hit to any part of the field. It’s tough to say [best] in all of baseball, because we don’t see the National League guys as much, but Cabrera is the first player that comes to mind.”

Sam Fuld, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder: “Mike Trout. He dominates in all three facets of the game: hitting, baserunning and defense. He looks and runs like an NFL linebacker but possesses as good a set of baseball skills as just about anyone in the game.”

Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers infielder: “Miguel Cabrera. Absolutely. He’s the best hitter, and he’s pretty good defensively, too.”

Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher: “I’ve got to say Miguel Cabrera. He’s the biggest threat there is at the plate, and he plays a good enough third base. He puts the team on his back. He has presence. When you play them, you circle his name on the lineup card.”

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher: “Mike Trout. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in the game, no doubt, but Mike Trout is the best player.”

Adam Lind, Toronto Blue jays outfielder: “Mike Trout, I guess, if you’re going to go with overall. He does everything.”

Nate McLouth, Baltimore Orioles outfielder: “I think Mike Trout is. He can do everything. There are a handful of guys you could pick, but as far as all-around game, he’s the best there is.”

Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants outfielder: “I think it’s safe to say it’s between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. WAR? I think it’s kind of a silly statistic. I don’t even know what factors are involved. I remember reading about it a while ago and seeing that you can lose points for the position you play. I don’t understand all that stuff. If I was to look at what I think helps wins games, it’s run production: RBI and runs scored. OPS is a powerful stat, and stealing bases, and defense. That’s what I would look at. It’s fun to analyze that stuff, though.”

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants catcher: “Can I have two? Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout. Is that a pretty common answer? It would be a tough call there.”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox catcher: “If you’re talking all-around player, it’s Mike Trout. He plays good defense, steals bases, hits for power, hits for average. If you’re talking best hitter, even if he’s mediocre at his position, you’ve got Miguel Cabrera. He’s just an unbelievable hitter. But best overall player, Mike Trout.”

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FINAL TALLY

Mike Trout: Seven votes (Bradley, Fuld, Kershaw, Lind, McLouth, Pence ½, Posey ½, Saltalamacchia)

Miguel Cabrera: Seven votes (Bowden, Davis, Dozier, Duensing, Gonzalez, Janssen, Pence ½, Posey ½)

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Note: Thanks to Eno Sarris for procuring the quotes from Adrian Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw, Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, and to Brandon Warne of ESPN Minnesota for procuring the quotes from Brian Dozier and Brian Duensing.

After examining the National League division round umpires yesterday, I will look at the American ones today. I will look to see if they have any unique strike calling patterns and post their 2013 K/9 and BB/9 scaled to the league average strikeout and walk rates. Again I have included images of their called strike zones compared to the league average called zone.

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As the Braves prepare to enter the Division Series, I want to return to two controversial incidents at the end of their regular season, when they embroiled themselves in two separate incidents when a batter admired his home run for far too long. First it was Jose Fernandez, the inspiring and amazing Rookie of the Year candidate, hitting his first home run in the majors; then it was Carlos Gomez, taking revenge for what he perceived to have been an intentional hit by pitch three months earlier. In both cases, Brian McCann got rather peeved. (He also got memed.)
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A little under an hour east of here, rising behind one of the world’s largest free-standing natural monoliths, there lies a peak known as Hamilton Mountain. The trail up passes by a breathtaking waterfall and breathstopping cliffs, and the summit affords magnificent views of the Columbia River Gorge and the Cascade peaks towering beyond. As you head out from the trailhead, there’s only one way to go, passing through shrubs and underneath power lines before entering a forest. Soon, though, one arrives at a junction. There are two paths and a sign with arrows, reading “Difficult” and “More Difficult.” The choice is up to the hiker, but no matter which way you pick, you’re going to get to the top.

Mariano Rivera is retiring, which is going to allow us to re-visit the question of who is the game’s best closer. Not that we couldn’t address the question before, but Rivera was the default response, and sometimes people got emotional if you went another way. Now Rivera has removed himself from the pool, and there’s a small host of current candidates to take his place. Among them are Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel and Los Angeles’ Kenley Jansen, and statistically it can be hard to tell the two apart. Remarkably, they occupy very similar planes. Remarkably, they get there along two very different paths.

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It is time to look at the third team on the field for the National League division round, the umpires. Each umpire is given a quick look to see if they have any unique strike calling patterns. Also, I posted their 2013 K/9 and BB/9 rates which I scaled them to the league average strikeout and walk rates. A 100 value is league average and a 110 value would be a value 10% higher than the average. Additionally, I added images of their called strike zones verses right and left handed hitters (from catchers perspective) compared to the league average. The scale is the percentage difference where -0.1 means 10% points less than the league average

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