This afternoon, I had a bit of a brouhaha with one Jonah Keri, friend of the site and of mine. With the Royals leading the Indians 5-2 at the time of our fisticuffs, Jonah tweeted the following.
Because I have a reputation as a Debbie Downer to uphold, I went to our Playoff Odds page and noted that the listed playoff odds for Kansas City stood at just 2.7%. That didn’t account for the game the Royals were winning at the moment, so it understated their odds to some degree, but even with the victory over the Royals, I called out the Tall Canadian on his liberal use of the term “very real shot”, noting that math says that the Royals are pretty big long shots to end up with a wild card spot.
Of course, Mr. Keri prefers to poutine and Youppi to cold hard facts, so he waved off the numbers as something born out of a witches cauldron. Bah and humbug, he said, or something to that effect, before donning his Chris Getz jersey and resuming his cheerleading.
Because I like Jonah and want him to see the folly of his ways, I figured this was worth a post. Even with just a couple of game deficit with a few weeks still go to, why do our playoff odds calculations think the Royals have little chance of actually making the playoffs? In large part, it can be summed up by the remaining schedule.
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