Jose Fernandez, Etched in Stone
It isn’t often you can say this, but the best show in baseball Wednesday took place in Miami. Though it was a game between the going-nowhere hosts and the certainly-going-somewhere Braves, the hosts had Jose Fernandez on the mound, and before the Marlins equivalent of a full house, Fernandez did everything in what would be his final start of the season. There were twists, there were turns. There were big swings and big pitches. There were players yelling at one another, and there were fans yelling louder. Wednesday night, Miami and Fernandez had it all.
Fernandez was dominant, but Fernandez has often been dominant, and the game was so much more than that. He got involved not just on the mound, but also at the plate and on the basepaths. Everybody knew it would be his last turn, and it doesn’t seem like he left anything on the table.
It was in the sixth inning that Fernandez hit his first home run, a no-doubter against a low changeup that soared beyond the left-center power alley. That was one of the compelling events, and it led to another, as Fernandez took several moments to appreciate his dinger after the ball left the bat:
As Fernandez rounded third, he spit on the ground near Chris Johnson’s feet. That seemed to be in response to previous jawing:
Johnson: /flies out
Johnson: weak-ass fastball
It wasn’t long before the benches cleared, before baseball players started milling around, with Fernandez in the middle and Johnson quite mad. It’s always entertaining when players get their dander up, and though Fernandez was certainly immature, Johnson wasn’t innocent, and one should remember that Fernandez is just 21 years old. The Marlins announcers noted that Fernandez acted like a 21-year-old. Because he is a 21-year-old, as of a month and a half ago.
Which is kind of the real story. Fernandez is young and entertaining and one hell of a pitcher, and he also pitched his ass off in his final start. Many will mostly remember the homer and the ensuing ugliness, but Fernandez faced a division leader and allowed a run in seven innings. Fernandez’s pitching provided the other compelling events. The first pitch of the game was a heater at 96, perfectly located in the low-away corner. Fernandez only built from there.
The game’s third batter was Freddie Freeman. Here’s what happened to him:
The fastball left Fernandez’s hand at 99.2 miles per hour. That’s tied for his fastest pitch of the season. It’s alone as his fastest strike of the season, and Freeman’s swing is a dead giveaway. Fernandez kept cruising into the top of the seventh, and here’s what would be his very last pitch:
Fernandez’s last toss of 2013 was a curve that whiffed Justin Upton and made him look helpless in the process. Fernandez walked off the mound to a standing ovation, a rousing standing ovation in Miami, Florida, and now Fernandez’s season is officially etched in stone. Now we can officially compare his season to other seasons in the past, without having to worry about more starts making the numbers different. Compared to history, Jose Fernandez shines.
Over the past century, 1,258 rookie starters have thrown at least 100 innings. Fernandez’s 2013 ranks tied for eighth in adjusted ERA. It ranks tied for 13th in adjusted FIP. Of those rookie pitchers who beat Fernandez’s adjusted ERA, all threw significantly fewer frames. And, of course, it’s not just that Fernandez was a rookie. It’s that he broke camp as a 20-year-old. This was, officially, Fernandez’s age-20 season, as baseball stats go.
Over the past century, there have been just 97 player seasons in which a starting pitcher no older than 20 reached or exceeded 100 innings. Among those, Fernandez ranks second in adjusted ERA, behind 1985 Dwight Gooden. He ranks fourth in adjusted FIP, behind 1985 Gooden, 1984 Gooden, and 1971 Bert Blyleven. We know that Fernandez just wrapped up one of the better rookie seasons ever. He has made zero career starts in Double- or Triple-A. Though you can argue about the timing of Fernandez’s promotion, for service-time reasons, clearly the Marlins were right in their belief that Fernandez was ready to go, despite his experience. What he didn’t have were reps against high-level hitters, but what he did have was stuff, consistent and repeatable stuff, and stuff trumps experience. At least, it makes up for a lack of it. It’s hitters who have to react to the guy on the hill, not the other way around.
Moreover, Fernandez didn’t even show signs of wearing down. His ERA was in the 3s into late June. The day he turned 21, his ERA stood at 2.71. As a 21-year-old, Fernandez started eight games, allowing seven runs, with one of them unearned. There were two dingers, and 63 strikeouts in 53 frames. Over the second half, Fernandez trimmed a fifth off of his first-half wOBA allowed. These are all complicated ways of saying that Fernandez got better, not worse, as there was no letdown and there was no sign of fatigue. Whenever a guy comes off a great season, you feel good about his odds of having another great season. With Fernandez, maybe next year he could be even better. The concern this year was experience. Now there are no concerns left, save for the concerns we reserve for all pitchers, left unspoken lest we all shiver and swear off rooting for pitchers completely.
Officially, Jose Fernandez is finished for 2013. Officially, he had one of the best young or rookie seasons ever, after skipping right past the advanced levels of the minors. There are plenty of brilliant scholars. There are fewer brilliant scholars who skipped a grade or two. It’ll be interesting to see how young pitchers are handled going forward. We have a good idea that velocity starts declining from a young age, and maybe there’ll be an industry-wide push to get younger guys up sooner, if the stuff looks like it’s there. Maybe pitchers don’t need that upper-level experience as much as hitters do. I don’t know if Fernandez will kickstart a trend or stand as an exception. What I know now, officially, is that Fernandez defied the ordinary course of things and established himself as an ace at a younger age than this year’s first overall pick. It was a historic campaign, and not all who draw comparisons to Dwight Gooden go the way of Dwight Gooden.
The last time Fernandez allowed more than two runs in a start, the Dodgers were five wins back of the Diamondbacks. Fernandez won’t be allowing more than two runs in a start the rest of this year. As for next year, let’s call it a coin flip.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
The Messiah.
Yeah, good article but way overdone.
“Whenever a guy comes off a great season, you feel good about his odds of having another great season. With Fernandez, maybe next year he could be even better.”
Maybe, but far more likely that he’ll regress toward the mean.
People thought Trout would regress as well. Sometimes special talent is just special talent.
Yes, that’s why we say “far more likely” and not “certainly”. Improbable things happen. It does not follow from this that one should bet on them happening.
But to what “mean” are we going to base any possible regression? Is the benchmark central tendency of all NL pitchers? Or pitchers in their age 21 seasons? Jose Fernandez has one individual season, so certainly there’s not a personal track record with a mean that we could point to for him to regress towards.
And I’m asking honestly — not trying to be snarky. When we talk about regressing to the mean, do we mean how that pitcher historically performs? Or league average for the season? Or (and adjusted) average of all seasons pitched? I think people think of mean performance differently, and wonder what’s meant here.
Great article as usual, Jeff. I was wondering what your thoughts were on the Braves’ ridiculousness. I guess by me calling the Braves ridiculous, my thoughts are transparent.
There was more than enough ridiculousness to go around.
It was really ridiculous by both teams.
–Braves rookie, Evan Gattis, admires his HR too much
–Marlins rookie, Jose’ F, says something to fire up the Braves bench (even mild mannered Terry Pendleton was fired up)
–Chris Johnson (known for his temper) yells back at Jose’
–Jose’ gets counseled in dugout by coach and manager after temper tantrum between innings
–Jose’ hits HR and admires it way too long – irritating veteran catcher, Brian McCann
–Jose’ spits in the general direction of an already annoyed Chris Johnson while running the bases
–McCann lets young pitcher know that he needs to just play the game the right way. Hothead Chris Johnson sprints in so that he can join the “conversation”.
Honestly, it was much ado about nothing. Jose’ Fernandez is a TREMENDOUS talent, but he was over the top in his reaction to the Gattis HR trot. He’s a kid, he will learn.
I loved what Placido Polanco did. He came out and talked to Chris Johnson a long time, and settled him down quite a bit. I also admired the press conference from the Marlins manager, who said that his young star won’t do that again. Even Jose’ was big enough to admit that he overreacted.
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(hold down Alt) + numpad 0 2 3 3
Sounds about right
Chris Johnson spit at Jose first. Watch the replay of the entire incident. CJ is a punk.
Uhh, Gattis didn’t admire his HR at all. He looked and hauled butt around the bases. I watched the replay several times and he didn’t take anymore time than Stanton did on his.
Watch again. He also stared Jose down right after he hit it.
I watched it several times, I don’t see him admiring it. I see him looking to see if it’s going to leave and then doing a quick job around the bases.
It’s not like he did a bat flip and stood at home plate for 20 seconds.
Watch this. He clearly stares Jose down. Lomo even said something about it.
http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=30542245&topic_id=7417714
I can’t help but disagree. Fernandez was dominating the haughty Braves lineup so they started hot-dogging to compensate for their invalidated collective manhood. Only losers complain, no?
Fernandez is just competing. The sooner baseball gets over its illusion of being a gentlemanly pursuit, the better, because the majority of these guys are overgrown kids spitting on the ground and playing with balls and sticks.
Using the “only losers complain” cliche to take the side of the losingest team in the league over the winningest team in the league is a bit ironic, no?
TKDC: each game is an island, and your Braves were pwned. Braves apparently feel entitiled, I suspect that the first rounds will clear that up nicely.
Fast: It’s a game gentlemen pay to watch, so the heathens are required to display manners occaisonally lest the gentlemen depart.
Wow, you blew my mind.
I will give you credit for using “pwned” and “lest” in the same short post. You showed a lot of range in your drivel.
This is incorrect. Gattis was not watching his home run, he was staring out at Fernandez because he did not like the way he smiled when he (Gattis) homered. They said that it seemed as if, by that smile, he was showing that he thought he was too good for anyone else to get a hit off of. Which is, of course, utterly ridiculous. The kid smiles all the damn time.
Then there was Johnson’s embarrassing conduct in his own at-bat, then the kid watching his own homer too long (which he did), Johnson said something as he went past third, then the kid spit on the ground.
McCann had things handled just fine at that point, having a little vet-to-rookie talk to let him know that you damned well do not stand there that long in the big leagues, showing up the pitcher, and the benches shouldn’t have ever emptied… but Johnson came charging in from third to hide behind the umpire, screaming at Fernandez over the ump’s shoulder while McCann was trying to talk to him.
Hell, I’m a Braves fan, and I’m pretty damned ashamed of Johnson’s actions in the game. The kid did stand there too long, but Mac had that handled if CJ2.0 would’ve stayed the hell out of it.
*this would, of course, be Chris, not Reed or Elliot. We’re leading the league in Johnsons. We also have a bad BJ and a pretty good Wood.
I just keep on hoping for a hot BJ
It’s a subjective term, but was there a more electrifying pitcher in baseball this season?
As a Braves fan he and Matt Harvey are both scary good. The NL East is stocked with excellent young pitching.
Matt Harvey.
Liriano
*Chortle*
Dice-K
I find Chapman pretty “electrifying.”
I’ve never understood why players get so upset over this sort of thing. Are baseball players the most insecure people in the world?
Since they don’t get to crash into each other the way that football players do, and even basketball players do to some extent, baseball players have to go to rather silly lengths to prove their masculinity.
It’s almost as if being youthful, rich, supremely talented, and hyper-athletic (read, testosterone) in a competitive environment might cause a man to act in ways that are not rationally empathetic 100% of the time.
These are highly competitive men, most taught from a young age that this same competitiveness needs be tempered through observance of the game’s unwritten rules. To lose is frustration enough, to suffer indignity in the process can be maddening. Nothing here is shocking.
This reminds me that I saw a highlight the other day of Piazza’s classic freak out, and between that and the image of Clemens throwing the broken bat, it’s hard to not think ‘steroids’ when you look back.
Why do freak outs make you think steroids?! They happened before the steroid era, they continue to happen after. With 162 chances to see someone each year, there’s a really good chance we’ll catch many of them not at their finest, at least once or twice.
(Not that we’re any better; I would wager that if our workdays were broadcast for 162 days a year, we would be seen acting whiny, petulant, lazy, or worse.)
To get all sociological on you, it’s been institutionalized. All it takes is one player to get a little bit overboard and then other players must act to “protect the unwritten rules.”
The only people more insecure than baseball players are baseball umpires.
Fernandez seems like nice kid and was apologetic but I’m thinking next year when he bats against the Braves he gets drilled, and well deserved. I can see why the Braves were pissed off, act like you’ve been there before.
He hasn’t been there before? He’s 21 and has never hit a MLB HR. Evan Gattis is 27 and had 18 MLB HR’s. Does he deserve to get hit with a baseball traveling at 80 mph? Does any player deserve to get hit with a baseball?
Funny you say that, watch the clip of Gattis’ homer landing. Hits a kid right in the balls on the stairs in the outfield. Hilarious.
Why would Gattis get drilled in the first place? What the heck did he do?
what if you haven’t been there before?
Have either of you ever played baseball?? Watch the interview with Fernanadez AND his manager before making stupid remarks.
Agreed – Fernandez was very classy afterwards. Emotions run high in the middle of a game, and he will be an exciting pitcher to watch for years to come.
Here’s the thing I don’t get, why should you have to act like you’ve been there before, when, in fact, you have not been there before?
The dude is 21 years old and it’s his first career HR, as a pitcher.
Baseball is stupid sometimes.
Were I the Marlins’ manager I’d have Fernandez pinch-hit this afternoon. That way if he gets hurt by the ball he’ll have the whole offseason to heal.
Had you watched the game, you would know that Gattis hit a no doubter that he stood and admired for at least as long. Then Johnson got all pissy. Instead of retaliating by nailing somebody with a fastball, Fernandez rocked Minor. Was spitting on the ground immature? Sure, but get off your damn high horse.
Gattis didn’t admire his for very long at all, although he did do an aggressive staredown at Fernandez for a second that seemed unprovoked.
I’m a Braves fan, but it seems like between this and the Harper affair, they’re a bit too brittle about all this “unwritten rules”/don’t pimp your homer nonsense. I wish they’d just ignore it when an excited kid acts like an excited kid.
Fernandez doesn’t need to get “drilled” next year any more than Evan Gattis needs to get drilled today. It’s over.
Nobody deserves to get drilled. That’s just stupid.
And pitchers hate admiring your blast. The best way for the Braves to ‘get back’ at him is to hit HR off him.
Yes, by all means, let’s stone him for this horrible offense. Your sense of right and wrong frightens me.
Hey! It’s part of the game! The baseball can be weaponized with intent to injure and the rules account for that. Once the guy gets out of the hospital and the reconstructive surgery and recovery have finished he gets first base.
Um…you know he hasn’t been there before right? First (only) homerun of his rookie year….
You guys do understand english right?? ACT like you have been there before. For the those that can’t get past it, take your big soft rubber ball and try not to hurt each other.
The Braves drill him at their own peril. I don’t think a Braves player would like a 99mph fast ball aimed at their arm.
He was pretty good last night, but where’s the GIF of Gattis’ HR off Fernandez that hit a guy in the nuts in the stands?
Here ya go:
Damn, these tags never seem to work for me.
Just copy and paste.
http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2885/9725832577_4381ae7ab3_o.gif
I imagine Fernandez having such a good time out there gets bothersome to particular players, especially when he’s mowing them down left and right, with a smile on his face. I’m a Braves fan, but I absolutely love watching the way Fernandez goes about things. It would surely piss me off. But you kind of have to appreciate it. Chris Johnson, I’m sure, just got frustrated. However, if Fernandez is going to go about things in that manner, he should expect to get some jawing back at him. Whether it was Johnson, Gattis, or whoever else that “started it”, I think it went exactly as it should have. McCann seemed to just let him know, politely, that he didn’t like the stare down. When Fernandez looks at McCann, what are the benches supposed to do? No one was hurt, and it all ended pretty well. I’m not sure why Fernandez apologized. I didn’t see any reason for it. But I’m sure it went a long way with his manager and players around the league.
I can’t wait to see Fernandez and Harvey tear up the NL East, even at my own team’s expense. They’re too good to let this kind of stuff get in the way.
The benches didn’t clear because Fernandez looked at McCann. The benches cleared because CJ charged towards home plate, and he didn’t charge home plate because Fernandez looked at McCann. He did it because he didn’t like getting owned by Fernandez all night.
Bundy last season may have been the first of this potential wave. I assume that if he were not injured he and Fernandez would have been up all season.
While he does admire his home run, everyone should admire their first. But my complaint is on the weak ass bat flip. He must have skipped learning bat flipping skills when he skipped nearly the entire minors.
Also, it isn’t like skipping a few grades. I would be like doing a year of high school and being directly promoted to being a professor at a crappy university who wins a noble prize.
Funny he is called immature when his reaction is to spit in Johnsons’ direction, rather than hit an Atlanta batter. I’d say that’s more mature than most other pitchers reactions to a similar scenario.
Exactly. AND he even apologized! For no reason! All in all, that whole spat was handled about as perfectly as a baseball spat can be handled.
You guys should watch mlb network’s recap of this(http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=30542245&topic_id=7417714). Chris Johnson spit in the base paths BEFORE Jose spit. Jose spitting was a response. Also, Chris Johnson was jawing at Jose before Jose said a word to him. The braves were at fault here and thought it was pretty ridiculous the marlins apologized like they did.
What are Jose’s chances for winning the NL Rookie of the Year? I think he deserves it, but I fear that Puig will receive it over him, not that Puig isn’t deserving.
Best. Home run trot. Ever.
Surprised nobody has questioned his age. He sure looks and acts polished for a 21-year old.
He does have a baby face though.
Chris Johnson seems like a pleasant human being, for sure.
“left unspoken lest we all shiver and swear off rooting for pitchers completely.”
So casual, such good writing. Thank you.
And wasn’t he their alleged 5th starter to begin the season? Weren’t people shocked that they even put him on the big league club? Man, this guy is a great story.
Jose Fernandez did something this season that was extremely rare. He was my favorite player to watch this year and so much of that had to do with his wonderful attitude. It too often feels like there is some kind of ridiculous war in baseball today today between the old timer, respect-the-game types and the bat-flippers over control of the future of baseball— as if it’s supposed to be one way or another. Who, with any opinion on the matter, could watch Fernandez pitch and NOT get excited, or see something to smile about? What a bright light. Last night included, anyone who’d say Jose Fernandez isn’t great for baseball needs to switch to tennis, or equestrian sports.
As much as his season stood out in terms of his achievements on the field, I think it stands to be reiterated how unique his reaction to last night’s events were after the game. How often do you see athletes take complete responsibility for their actions so immediately, if at all? In my opinion, he was not obligated to apologize for anything. After watching him all year, it seems abundantly clear that his actions last night were the product of some youthful exuberance. And compared to some of the nonsense so many other players partake in when airing out their competitiveness, how outrageous is what he did, really?
A great game, enough to cause me to consider being a Marlins fan next year. I don’t think he needed to apologize, and I hope that doesn’t dampen his spirit in the slightest. First homers in the bigs are often watched, the Braves were getting totally owned and seized upon nothings. I’ll be rooting for them to go down fast now, and I won’t be alone.
That’s who Jose is. Spending time in a Cuban prison for trying to leave for a better life will humble a guy. It makes Jose extremely thankful for everything he has. He enjoys it so much because never in his life could he have imagined he would reach so much success as he has right now. He truly appreciates it, having a chance to succeed in what he appropriately calls the best country in the world.
That attitude rubs off on his team mates. That attitude has made him undefeated at Marlins Park. That attitude makes him an undisputed fan favorite. There’s so much to love about this kid. You can’t find anything to hate about him.
That was actually quite the opposite of humility
Can we also get a gif of Evan Gattis’ strikeout in the at bat before his HR? It was a filthy breaking ball with a disgusting swing, similar to the Freeman swing at the 99 mph fastball. I was at the game, sitting bhind home plate. Awesome night
In his last start of the season, in his last pitch of the season, he managed to do what new Marlins Park, what a team with Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, what Giancarlo Stanton mammoth homers couldn’t do.
He got a rousing standing ovation from the fans at Marlins Park.
Fernandez is something special, no doubt about that.
I don’t agree with the “weak ass fastball” sentiment. Weak ass place in the standings though…