Archive for Daily Graphings

In Depth With Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has come a long way behind the plate. “Salty” isn’t among the elite at his position, but he’s developed into a solid defensive catcher. He is certainly among the most cerebral. Once looked at as an offense-first backstop, he is playing a key role in the success of a Boston Red Sox pitching staff that is exceeding expectations.

Originally a first-round pick by the Atlanta Braves in 2003, the 28-year-old switch-hitter was acquired by the Red Sox from the Texas Rangers in 2010 and has been the team’s primary catcher for the past two seasons. He discussed the nuances of his craft — and several members of the Boston pitching staff — prior to a recent game at Fenway Park.

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The Best Non-All-Star Seasons of the Past 50 Years

This past weekend, we learned the rosters for the 2013 MLB All-Star Game. Perhaps more popular than the game itself is the practice of complaining about who did and didn’t make it, and so there are countless articles talking about snubs, and whatnot. One does have to note the absence of both Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson, who currently rank sixth and seventh in baseball in WAR. Each would be a deserving representative, as each has a compelling case for eligibility. But, to be fair, it’s unclear just what the All-Star Game is supposed to reward, and over the past calendar year, Donaldson’s WAR rank drops to ninth, while Longoria’s drops to 14th. Wait, I don’t think that made the intended point.

Longoria, probably, should be in there, as should Donaldson. On the pitching side, perhaps the biggest snub is Derek Holland. But I don’t want to sit here and complain about possible snubs; rather, I want to talk a little bit about the best seasons put up by players who weren’t All-Stars. It wouldn’t make sense to complain, since I don’t actually care very much. But history is interesting, and below, we’ll examine some great seasons from between 1963-2012 that didn’t include an All-Star nod. Granted, the All-Star Game is in the middle, but these seasons at least look funny in retrospect. How do Longoria and Donaldson measure up?

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The Marlins and Minimum Payrolls

Major League Baseball’s attempts to narrow the gap between franchises has resulted in an incentive system. While other leagues have salary caps and floors, Major League Baseball has instituted a system of luxury taxes (to bring down the highest payrolls) and revenue sharing (to bring up the lowest ones). As I noted in a piece for ESPN The Magazine this spring, the system has been pretty effective too, as we are currently experiencing an age of parity unlike any time in MLB history.

However, incentives don’t work in every situation. You can carrot-and-stick your way to success on a broad level while still having some individuals fall through the cracks. Overall, I think MLB’s financial system is mostly as effective at promoting competitive balance as a hard salary cap would be, but that doesn’t mean that the system doesn’t have some flaws. And, with the Ricky Nolasco trade, the Miami Marlins are shining a bright light on the system’s flaws once again.

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Breaking Down the Season’s Most Unlikely Double Steal

Some years ago, when they were up-and-coming instead of bad, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez were both Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are well known for their advertising campaigns, and in one they pitched Betancourt and Lopez as the “double play twins,” middle infielders who did everything together, both on and off the field. Betancourt and Lopez, at the time, had a lot in common. Today, they continue to have a lot in common, which is too bad. But they were teammates, and they were sold as a pair.

A much better pair of teammates today includes Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. The two are commonly discussed as a duo, as they make up perhaps baseball’s most intimidating lineup core. Cabrera and Fielder are supposed to do some things together, like crush baseballs. In the third inning on Saturday, for example, they slugged back-to-back dingers. What they’re not supposed to do together is steal. Cabrera and Fielder, combined, have fewer career steals than John Kruk. But, Sunday afternoon, the two pulled off a most unlikely double steal, and this demands to be investigated.

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Q&A: Marten Gasparini, Italia to Royals Prospect

For Marten Gasparini, choosing Royal blue over Savoy Blue was a matter of heart. The 16-year-old loves his native land, but when it comes to sport, baseball in America beats the Azzurri.

Gasparini made history when he inked a contract with the Kansas City Royals last week. An native of northern Italy, he received a $1.3 million signing bonus — a record for a European amateur. A switch-hitting shortstop with elite athleticism, he is rated the 12th-best international prospect by Baseball America. According to reports, scouts feel he might be the best European prospect ever.

Gasparini talked about his love of America’s pastime — and why he chose it over Italy’s sporting passion — this past weekend.

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Gasparini on his immediate future: “Right now I’m in Kansas City meeting with people from the Royals. From here I’m going to Arizona, to the complex, then back to Italy to play in the European [Junior] Championships, in Prague. After that, I’ll be back in Arizona, working out.

“I’ll be at [instructional league] in the fall. I’m going to be talking to the coaches I’ll be working with, but right now I don’t know exactly what they’ll want me to work on. All I know is that I’ll be playing baseball. But I‘m sure I‘ll be working on running, fielding, my swing — I’ll need to work on everything.

“My best tool is speed. That’s whether I’m in the field, on the bases, or in the box. I like playing shortstop the most, but if they feel it is better to move me to the outfield, it’s OK. But shortstop is the position I love to play.”

On hitting and the level of competition he‘s faced: “In Europe, usually you can find 85 [mph], maybe high 80s. But for most pitchers, you don’t see 90s. I’m pretty comfortable hitting against mid 80s. I’ve faced some pretty good [breaking pitches].

“There are some good pitchers in the Netherlands. I was also in the Under-18s last year [in Seoul, South Korea] and faced some Japanese and Canadian pitchers who were really good. They had some great curveballs and sliders.

“I try to stay patient at the plate. I try always to wait for my pitch, and when I get to two strikes, I shorten my swing up and use the whole field.”

On choosing baseball over soccer: “Soccer just doesn’t make me feel as good. I think it’s kind of boring, because everybody does it. I have a much better feel for baseball. They’ve told me I could go to [soccer] practices and maybe perform well, but it is more than just [athleticism]. It is technique that makes you go far.

“I played stickball when I was about eight years old. I first started to play baseball when I was 10.”

“I’ve been following [Major League Baseball] every day on the internet. I go to MLB.com and follow games on live streaming. The players I like the most are Derek Jeter, Matt Kemp, and Yasiel Puig.”


Putting Michael Cuddyer’s Hit Streak Into Perspective

Michael Cuddyer just finished going streaking. His 27-game streak, which lasted from May 28th to June 30th, was the longest since Dan Uggla’s 33-gamer in 2011. While he didn’t reach the 30-game benchmark that many sites use, 27 games is nothing to shake a stick at — Cuddyer’s streak was just the 135th of 25 or more games since 1916 that happened during the same season (there were also 18 that spanned two seasons, but I don’t count those. If you have a problem with that you can go suck a lemon). I didn’t have the time to go through all of those streaks, but I did have a chance to take a look at the streaks of 30 or more games, and I thought we could put Cuddyer’s streak into perspective.

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Q&A: Pat Tabler on the 1980s Cleveland Indians

From 1983-1988, Pat Tabler was a good hitter on some not-so-good Cleveland Indians teams. Bouncing between the outfield and the infield corners, he hit .294/.356/.408. Overall, “Tabby” was a career .282 hitter in 12 big-league seasons. He currently serves as a TV analyst for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Tabler reminisced about his time in Cleveland — including notable brawls and off-the-wall teammates — on a recent visit to Fenway Park.

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Tabler on bench-clearing brawls:
“In 1986, we were playing the A’s, who we always had hard-fought games with. Pat Corrales was our manager and he thought Dave Stewart was throwing at one of our guys. He was barking at him and Stew said, ‘Come on out here.’ Corrales did. They met at the first base line and went after each other. Both of them had belts in karate. Corrales went to dropkick, and missed, and Stew smoked him. It was on after that. It was a good fight.

“Another time, against the Royals, Jamie Quirk hit a home run against us. Next time up, Sammy Stewart hit him with a pitch and broke his hand. The following night, with Ken Schrom pitching, Willie Wilson hit a fly ball to center. Read the rest of this entry »


Your Team’s New Trade Asset

For fans of Carlos Marmol, it’s been a confusing few days, even beyond the usual confusion baseline. On Tuesday, Marmol was shipped from the Cubs to the Dodgers. On Wednesday, there were initial reports the Dodgers were cutting ties, but now it’s clear they simply intend to send him to the minor leagues for a little while, in theory to get him “straightened out.” Marmol, at some point, should pitch for the Dodgers, and they have more interest in him than they had in the now-departed Matt Guerrier. Cynics will note that the solution to an inconsistent Brandon League isn’t adding another one, but if the odds are X% that League turns it around, the odds are greater that one of League and Marmol turns it around.

Of course, Marmol was just designated for assignment. There’s not a lot there, beyond the strikeouts, the frequency of which is plummeting. Since 2011, among pitchers with at least 150 innings, Marmol ranks 14th-worst in OBP allowed, at .355. He’s hanging around the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Derek Lowe and Edinson Volquez, and though Marmol generally limits batting and slugging, his career isn’t on the way up. Marmol, probably, can be useful, but since 2011 he has a 105 FIP-. Guerrier has a 109 FIP-. Lots of relievers can be useful and Marmol isn’t going to pitch the Dodgers into first place.

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Kevin Gregg With A Wider Base

Talk to a few Cubs about advanced stats and you’ll get a mixed bag of responses. Quiet appraisal from Luis Valbuena. Internalization and response from Jeff Samardzija. “NERRRRRRDD” yelled jokingly at the correspondent by Darwin Barney. But one the most remarkable turnaround stories in the clubhouse, Kevin Gregg had an equally nerdy response to the numbers: “Mechanical change.”

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Velocity Decline Trends for June, 2012-13

Well friends, we are now approaching that time of year where a significant drop in a pitcher’s velocity passes the 50% threshold in terms of signaling that they will finish the year down at least one full mph.

Month 1 mph Drop No 1 mph Drop Relative Risk
April 38% 9% 4.2
May 47% 6% 7.8
June 55% 5% 11.0
July 56% 4% 14.0
August 53% 6% 8.8

The table above breaks out the percent of pitchers who experience at least a 1 mph drop in their four-seam fastball velocity in a month relative to that same month a year ago and who also went on to finish the season down a full 1 mph. It also shows the relative risk — meaning, the increased likelihood that a pitcher will experience a true velocity loss at season’s end when compared to those pitchers that didn’t lose 1 mph in that month.

For example, pitchers that lost velocity in May finished the season down a full 1 mph 47% of the time, compared to just 6% that didn’t lose 1 mph in May — an increased likelihood of 7.8.

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