Earlier this month I wrote about whether we should be concerned with when we see pitchers throwing slower in April, particularly with regards to CC Sabathia.

If we are trying to predict whether the pitcher has truly lost some zip on their fastball, the answer is somewhat. Pitchers who are down at least 1 mph compared to April of the previous year will go on to finish the season down at least 1 mph about 38% of the time. Essentially, they are over four times as likely to be truly losing velocity compared to those that are not down in April. However, the signal gains in strength as the season goes on. So, if a pitcher is down at least 1 mph in July compared to July of the previous year their likelihood of being down at season’s end jumps to 14 times more than pitchers that are not down in July.

But does being down in April predict an injury? This is something I had not yet investigated. Given the increased discussion about April velocity declines I thought I should take a quick look.

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When Major League Baseball renewed its partnership with StubHub last winter, the Yankees and Angels opted out. Instead, each of those teams created its own ticket resale marketplace in partnership with TicketMaster. Like many teams, the Yankees and Angels were unhappy about the MLB/StubHub arrangement, which often results in tickets selling on StubHub for prices well below face value. Those secondary-market sales then undercut a team’s ability to sell additional tickets at face value. The Yankees asked MLB to negotiate a price floor in the new MLB/StubHub contract. When that didn’t happen, the Yankees and Angels went their own way with the TicketMaster Ticket Exchange.

What has that meant for fans holding Yankees and Angels tickets?

If you purchase Yankees tickets and you want to sell your tickets and transfer them electronically, you must do so using the team’s Ticket Exchange. StubHub isn’t authorized by the Yankees to allow the print-at-home option for ticket buyers.

If you purchase Angels tickets and want to to sell your tickets and transfer them in any manner, you must do so using the team’s Ticket Exchange. According to the Angels, the team can void any ticket “should any person sell or offer this ticket for resale,” and resale in any forum other than on the team-authorized Ticketmaster site “is prohibited.”

Note: As several readers have noted, it appears you can download and print tickets from StubHub for Yankees and Angels games within 48 hours of the game’s start time. Beyond 48 hours, StubHub lists UPS as the only delivery option.

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Bryan Price doesn’t have the blueprint for keeping pitchers healthy and maximizing their talent. The Cincinnati Reds pitching coach admits as much. What he has is a recent track record that suggests he’s good at both.

Reds pitchers led the National League in ERA last year and ranked second in strikeouts-to-walk ratio. They also avoided the disabled list, with five pitchers combining to make all but one start. This year’s staff is also performing at a high level, with Johnny Cueto’s triceps injury being the only notable chink in the armor.

Price joined the Reds prior to the 2010 season following stints with the Mariners [2001-2006] and Diamondbacks [2007-2009]. He talked about his approach prior to the conclusion of spring training.

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Price on his pitching philosophy: “As far as philosophy, you have to understand that one size doesn’t fit all. I don’t think I approach things a great deal differently than most. We’re all trying to get our guys to pitch ahead in the count, command the fastball, be attentive and involved in their preparation, and to command a presence out on the field. We want them to maintain focus and composure in difficult times.

“When you look at our success last year, we had one of the lowest walks-per-nine-innings in baseball. We had one of the highest percentage of first-batter efficiency — getting the first batter of an inning out. Those are things we encourage, but having a philosophy doesn’t mean you’re going to execute something. What it comes down to is having good athletes who are good competitors.”

On changing a pitcher’s arm angle: “Inefficiency is inefficiency. If you’ve got a big-league guy, and he can help a good team win games, I’m going to leave him alone. If you’ve got a guy in your system who has potential and isn’t reaching it, then I think you have to do certain things to extract that talent. It can be a defining moment.

“Are you taking a risk by changing an arm angle? Read the rest of this entry »

Colby Rasmus is amazing. Still just 26, and an elite-level talent, Rasmus is presently slugging .536. He’s a center fielder who clubs like a DH, and his slugging percentage is beating those of Albert Pujols and Anthony Rizzo. Rasmus owns a 135 wRC+, which was Joe Morgan’s career wRC+. It’s a better wRC+ than those being posted by Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, and Michael Morse. Rasmus is finally coming into his own, and he’s looking like the superstar the Blue Jays have wanted him to become.

Colby Rasmus is a nightmare. For every seven plate appearances, he’s struck out three times, whiffing more often than batters have whiffed against Max Scherzer. His on-base percentage is being supported by a lofty BABIP, and Rasmus has swung through the ball with nearly half of his swings. With nearly half of his swings! Rasmus’ approach has shown no signs of improvement, and it looks like he’s going to continue to be exploitable for as long as he’s a part of the game.

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Yesterday, I was doing some All-Star Game research. In doing so, I came across the name of Bill Freehan, and was surprised to find that he started for the American League at catcher for seven straight years. Doing some more digging, I realized he was essentially the best catcher of whom I had never heard. The classic “whole is greater than the sum of his parts” player, there wasn’t anything that Freehan did poorly.

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As Jeff Sullivan just pointed out, Shin-Soo Choo leads the majors in on base percentage, thanks to his willingness to endure pain for his team’s gain. #2 in the majors in OBP is teammate Joey Votto, Cincinnati’s star first baseman. The Reds acquired Choo to boost the top of their batting order, and in the first three weeks of the season, he has teamed with Votto to create havoc. Even with Zack Cozart and his .243 OBP in the #2 spot, the Reds lead the Majors in runs scored because of the sheer quantity of opportunities those two have created for their teammates.

And yet, because of how Major League Baseball has historically been covered and the numbers that are often used to tell the stories of the game, Brandon Phillips is the guy putting up numbers at an historic pace, as his 21 RBIs in 18 games put him on a trajectory to make a run at Hack Wilson’s all time RBI record. And now, his own manager is propagating the myth of who is really responsible for the Reds early success.

“On-base percentage is good. But RBIs are better,” (Dusty) Baker said.

You’re reading FanGraphs, so you’re probably predisposed to dislike that quote. Just for fun, though, let’s go through the numbers.

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You like factoids, so go ahead and choose your factoid. Shin-Soo Choo has already been hit by nine pitches. Shin-Soo Choo’s hit-by-pitch total is more than twice as high as that of the current runner-up. Shin-Soo Choo has accounted for 5.2% of the league’s hit-by-pitches while accounting for 0.4% of the league’s plate appearances. No non-Reds team in baseball has been hit by more pitches than Shin-Soo Choo this season. Shin-Soo Choo has reached base more often by hit-by-pitches than Jason Heyward has reached base by hits. Shin-Soo Choo already has the second-worst UZR in baseball, ahead only of a guy with the yips. Whoops, I don’t know how that got in there. The point is this: Shin-Soo Choo has been hit a lot, already. There is a variety of ways in which this point can be illustrated.

It’s not a total negative, or even that much of a partial negative, because Choo is leading off for the Reds and leadoff hitters are supposed to get on base. When you get hit by a pitch, you are entitled to a base! Through three weeks or so, Choo has made fewer outs than non-outs, and this is a guy in the Reds lineup who isn’t Joey Votto. As long as Choo can get hit and not get hurt, it’ll be an overall positive, and Choo hasn’t gotten hurt to date.

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Although the “bunt wars” may not rage on, they are at least still simmering. The older, stale debates about whether sacrifice bunts are good strategy or the wastes of outs often miss the point by leaving aside game situation, game theory, the skill of the bunter, and other considerations. Even when such things are taken into account, discussions can get a bit abstract. Concrete examples of bunts and the situations around them can illustrate what complexities are involved in deciding whether a bunt is the right call. So let’s make it concrete: the sixth inning of the Red Sox-Royals game on Saturday provided two bunts worth closer consideration.

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Does Jimmy Nelson have the best pure stuff in the Brewers organization? The answer is yes, or at least that’s what a source who has closely followed the right-handed pitcher’s career told me. And after hearing that, my curiosity was piqued — especially after Nelson faltered in the second half of 2012 and posted a 7.24 BB/9 in his first taste of Double-A.

Video after the jump Read the rest of this entry »

And we’re to the second part of our third edition of The Worst Of The Best. As earlier, this has been delayed on account of current events, which have been making it difficult to concentrate. As earlier, I’ll acknowledge that not everybody wants to be reading about baseball right now, and this is simply out there for those who do. As earlier, I’ll note that I have no sympathy for people whose browsers lock up, because you ought to know by now that these posts feature a ton of .gifs and images. And as earlier, I’ll detail what you’re about to look at! This is a top five of the wildest swings of the past week, or the full swings at the wildest pitches. Checked swings don’t count as wild swings, for my purposes, and really awkward swings where the hitter falls down don’t count as wild swings, either. It’s all PITCHf/x-derived, so if you want to blame something for something, blame technology. Just don’t expect it to respond.

Maybe you saw a swing over the past week that you thought was really bad. Maybe you think that swing should’ve made the top five, even though it didn’t! Instead of assuming PITCHf/x got something wrong, assume that you got something wrong. It’s true, sometimes PITCHf/x has glitches, and sometimes PITCHf/x misses pitches. However, far more often, you misjudge something you see with your eyes. Your eyes are pretty great, considering how things would be without them. But relative to the PITCHf/x cameras, your eyes are feet. By which I mean they’re things that can’t see. The list is going to start now. This, by the way, is a link to last week’s edition.

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