Archive for Daily Graphings

We’ve spent the past few weeks taking a look at combined rankings for each organization, going division-by-division. I wasn’t really sure what I was going to find, but my goal was to take a look at the two main overall aspects of a prospect – his talent/reasonable ceiling and his risk of getting there – and see how farm systems graded out. The traditional 1, 2, 3 ranking system is fine because we’re ultimately looking at an educated subjective process, but a simple list doesn’t show the audience where the real gaps lie and where there’s negligible difference. My hope was to begin to approach a way to see these differences, and while there is certainly room for improvement, I believe it has led to some interesting results.
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Wade Miley is one of those pitchers who just gets outs. The Arizona Diamondbacks lefthander doesn’t wow or dazzle, but that isn’t what matters. What does is results, and he got plenty of those last year in his rookie season. The 26-year-old left-hander won 16 games with a 3.33 ERA and 3.15 FIP.

How did he do it? Not with overpowering stuff. His primary pitch — which he threw over 70 percent of the time — was a fastball that averaged 91.1 mph. He struck out just 6.66 batters per nine innings. What he did is pound the strike zone and keep the ball in the yard. His walk rate was a sterling 1.71 and home run rate a Lilliputian 0.65.

Can he replicate those results this season? Only time will tell, but he’s off to a good start. In his first outing he allowed one run over six innings and got the win against the Brewers. He makes his second start this afternoon against the Pirates.

Miley talked about the secrets to his success, including his better-than-you-think-it-is stuff, during spring training.

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David Laurila: How do you get guys out?

Wade Miley: I trust my defense. There are seven guys behind me, and my catcher, so I go right after hitters. I challenge them with my best stuff and hope for the best.

I think that’s a pretty standard way to go about it. It’s what a lot of pitchers do — they attack hitters. They throw strikes and try not to give away free passes. When hitters put the ball in play, there are a bunch of guys out there to help you. You rely on your teammates.

DL: How good is your stuff?

WM: You tell me. I don’t really have an answer to that.

DL: Coming up through the system, you were overshadowed by pitchers who were said to have better stuff. Read the rest of this entry »

There’s nothing terribly surprising about the headline. The Marlins finished in last place in the National League East last season. They traded all of the marquee players over the winter, save for superstar Giancarlo Stanton, who is under team control until after the 2016 season. The team threatened to sue season-ticket holders who refused to pay their ticket invoice in a dispute over whether their view was obstructed. And a week before the season started, the Marlins had teamed with Groupon to offer two-for-the-price-of-one tickets for opening night against the Braves. Then the Marlins started the season on the road with a 1-5 record.

Still, when my colleague Jeff Sullivan snapped this photo just as the opening night was getting underway at Marlins Park, I was, well, surprised.

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Rick Ankiel’s season began in about the best possible fashion. With the Astros holding on to a 4-2 lead on Opening Day, Ankiel was sent up to hit for Brandon Barnes in the bottom of the sixth inning. Derek Lowe threw him a meatball, and he responded by hitting said meatball 373 feet, good enough for a three run homer that would essentially put the game away. It’s hard to do much better than that on your first at-bat of the season.

Since that at-bat, though, things haven’t gone so well. Here’s Ankiel’s play log for the 2013 season. Read the rest of this entry »

Jhoulys Chacin hasn’t thrown a curve ball yet this season. Don’t think he hasn’t noticed. “That was my strikeout pitch,” he said, while agreeing he hasn’t thrown it. But he used it more before the four-man rotation, before the team decided to emphasize ground balls, before he injured his pectoral muscle, and before he learned the benefits of contact. This year, he hasn’t thrown a curve ball.

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It is an irrefutable fact that nothing that happens at the beginning of April can cost a team an entire baseball season. That is, short of a disaster or otherwise some act of God. You know what there’s a lot left of? Regular-season baseball. There is so much regular-season baseball left to be played. Things are going to happen, and seasons are going to change course. At this point we’re practically still in extended spring training.

But it is likewise an irrefutable fact that every single game of a regular season matters. Which is why we turn our attention to a game between the Rays and Rangers in Texas on Monday night. A year ago, the Rays finished within a few games of a playoff spot. The Rangers lost the division on the season’s last day, and then they were eliminated in the one-game wild-card playoff. The Rays and Rangers both project to contend in 2013. Things are going to be tight, most likely, making everything matter more, and on Monday, the Rangers closed out the Rays thanks to what we might charitably label a controversial call.

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Monday afternoon, the Brewers were leading the Cubs 7-2 going into the bottom of the ninth. Brandon Kintzler took the mound, but after three straight batters reached base, he was replaced by Jim Henderson. Henderson allowed a little bit of damage, but he successfully slammed the door, picking up a save. Henderson pitched in part because John Axford threw 18 pitches on Sunday. Henderson pitched more because Axford allowed two more runs Sunday, bringing him to a season total of six in 2.2 innings. Fueling those six runs allowed have been four dingers, as Axford’s problems from 2012 appear to have carried over into the new campaign.

The talk now is that Henderson will replace Axford as the Brewers’ closer. Axford has been getting booed at home, on account of the sucking, and if the Brewers want to contend and make the playoffs, they can’t afford to have an unreliable closer who’s demonstrated his unreliability. Many feel that Axford has earned a demotion. Many reached that point ages ago. It’s no longer a question of whether Axford should be demoted. It’s a question of: what’s the matter with John Axford?

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As spring training gave way to the regular season, the Marlins turned some heads when they announced that Jose Fernandez had made the team. No, not just made the team, but that he wasn’t even an injury replacement for Henderson Alvarez or Nathan Eovaldi — he was here to stay. Yesterday, he made his debut, and he made quite an impact. The debut was arguably one of the best for a pitcher of his age in baseball history.

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What follows is coverage of a pitch thrown by a Tampa Bay Ray, a pitch that was taken and therefore not swung at. It was taken for a strike, and it was sufficiently unusual to end up sparking this post, but this isn’t really about pitch framing. Jose Molina didn’t even play, and while we’re here, just for the record, relative to Jonathan Lucroy, Molina gets too much framing love. It’s not that Molina isn’t outstanding. It’s that Lucroy is, quietly, similarly outstanding, but people forget about him. But this isn’t about Jose Molina or pitch framing.

The Rays hosted the Indians on Sunday afternoon, and however many people were watching at the start, far fewer people were watching in the top of the ninth, when the Indians held an 11-run lead. And of those watching, fewer still were paying close attention, so few noticed Fernando Rodney’s first pitch to Mark Reynolds leading off the ninth inning. The pitch was a fastball for a called strike, and you can see the pitch embedded below:

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Whatever else was made of the Royals’ off-season makeover, most agreed that the bullpen was a strength. Tim Collins and Aaron Crow had shown to be good relievers who might even be worthy of closing for some teams, but were only the the third and fourth options in the Royals bullpen. Kelvin Herrera came up and dominated in 2012 with a fastball that touched triple digits, and projected closer Greg Holland had been one of the best relievers in the American League over the two previous seasons. There were serious questions about the reconstructed rotation aside from James Shields and an offense that would no longer have Wil Myers projected to come up and save them from The Right Field Horror. However, the bullpen seemed safe.

The first week of the season, particularly the weekend series in Philadelphia, has gone a very different direction. The rotation has not dominated, but other than Wade Davis‘ start on Friday night, the starters has gone at least six innings in every game so far. The offense was dormant in the opening series, but exploded against the Phillies for 25 runs in three games. However, the bullpen — more specifically, Holland — was shaky. Holland blew a save on Saturday in one of the most frustrating ways possible, by walking three batters in a row, striking out two more to almost get himself out of a jam, then finally losing the game on a hit by Kevin Frandsen. Holland looked bad again on Sunday. He came into the game in the ninth after J.C. Gutierrez managed to turn a 9-4 semi-laugher into a 9-7 semi-nail-biter. Holland gave up two hits before Ned Yost had seen enough and brought in Herrera, who himself just eked out of the game, 9-8, after giving up a run.

Naturally, fan insta-reaction to Holland’s problems has been, shall we say, less than measured. There has not been obvious buzz coming from the team about a closer switch, but many fans would welcome it. One way or the other, the over-reactions will likely be forgotten by mid-season. We are not to mid-season yet, though, and the situation provides a nice opportunity for a few reflections on this sort of situation more generally.

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