Archive for Daily Graphings

Over-Under Day — the day the first sportsbooks release their win-loss over-under totals for all 30 MLB teams — is one of my favorite days of the lead-in to baseball season. I’m not much of a gambler — I stick to risking my money on fantasy sports, personally — but Las Vegas is as good a projection system as we have, and although the numbers here will likely be revised between now and Opening Day, they provide as good a barometer for current team strength as you’ll find anywhere.

The Orioles, unsurprisingly, have the biggest drop-off from last year’s win total to this year’s over-under — 93 wins in 2012 to just a 76.5 over-under for 2013. Should Baltimore perform to Vegas’s projection, it will be just another example of the fleeting greatness of particularly clutch units, like the Orioles’ 2012 bullpen.

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Last season, like usual, Joey Votto was amazing, but last season, unlike usual, Joey Votto then injured his knee. It happened at the end of June, and while Votto tried to play through it for a time, he wound up being sidelined for a number of weeks before returning in September. He hit his final home run on June 24, before the injury, and down the stretch and in the playoffs, it was obvious that Votto didn’t have his normal Votto power. Maybe one of last season’s most unbelievable things is that, if you set a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Votto led baseball in second-half OBP. From the start of July through the end of the regular season, Votto reached 48% of the time. In a short playoff series, Votto reached 50% of the time. His power stripped away, Votto became even more difficult to retire than before.

Understandably, though, despite all the OBP, Votto is a bit of a question mark, as people are unsure whether his power will rebound now that he’s put more time between himself and his injury. It’s evident how a weaker knee can limit a hitter’s strength, and Votto conceded in October that he wasn’t at 100%. Now, there is this brief but encouraging update:

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The St. Louis Cardinals’ farm system is the envy of the league. ESPN’s Keith Law recently ranked the Cardinals’ minor-league teams Number 1 in his annual farm-system rankings, with Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Oscar Tavares all in Law’s Top 100 prospects. Baseball America agreed.

But all is not well for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate Memphis Redbirds of the Pacific Coast League. Their story is a warning that, even in a baseball-loving town, it isn’t always true that “if you build it, they will come.”

The Redbirds play in AutoZone Park in downtown Memphis. The ballpark, built in 2000, is nestled between high-rise office buildings not far from the Mississippi River. AutoZone Park is considered a jewel among minor-league ballparks. Baseball America named it the 2009 Minor League Ballpark of the Year. There are wide concourses, club seating, luxury suites and open-air party decks. It cost $80 million to build — a high price tag for a minor league ballpark.

And now, it’s awash in a sea of debt.

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The Cleveland Indians pulled a dual surprise by signing both Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, and while they’re unlikely to complete the trifecta by signing Kyle Lohse, the recent Bourn acquisition has people thinking about the Indians as a dark-horse American League playoff contender. Everybody likes an underdog, the Indians have put themselves in the headlines, and they do possess an abundance of talent. The Indians, at least, look to be something approximating a .500 ballclub, and given the error bars that come with win-total projections, the playoffs aren’t out of the question.

When you look closer, the Indians seem to be well below the Tigers, and about on par with the Royals and the White Sox in the Central. Despite everything the Indians have done, people still question the starting rotation, and for legitimate reasons. In my Tuesday chat queue there were several concerns expressed regarding the Indians’ starters, and consensus seems to be that the Indians don’t have enough pitching. They did add Brett Myers and Trevor Bauer, but they still have a rotation fronted by Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.

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“I know we were playing Philadelphia, and I want to say we played the Dodgers after that. End of July some time. I kind of realized that, hey, you gotta help the team out somehow. … Sometimes you get lost out there, and you try to start playing to prove yourself, playing for yourself, however you want to say it, but if you go up there and remember that this is a team game, and you’re there for them, you’re going to play better personally in return.” — Brandon Belt

No matter how many player interviews you’ve read, this quote from Brandon Belt fits right in. There’s little to separate it from the post-game interviews that laud camaraderie and perseverance above strategy and nuance. That’s fine — admit too much and you’ve given your competition information. There is one aspect of this quote that might be a little different than most quotes, though. Belt basically provides the exact date on which his 2012 season turned for the better.

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As we inch closer to the 2013 season, top-100 lists are being released with Byron Buxton ranked prominently. As the number-two overall pick in 2012, high rankings are expected. A few years ago, organization mate Aaron Hicks was held in equally high regard.

Today, Hicks ranks towards the bottom of top-1oo lists as five professional seasons have yielded mixed results. For those expecting Buxton’s tools to translate into production immediately, Hicks serves as a cautionary tale. But Hicks’ mini-breakout in 2012 and subsequent shot at the center field position in spring training serve as a reminder to bet on tools — Even if they take awhile to develop.

Video after the jump

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On Monday, I looked at a few ballparks that, in the past, had moved in their fences in an attempt to make the park more hitter-friendly. The Royals did it in the mid-90s, the Tigers did it between 2002-2003, the Padres did it between 2005-2006, and the Mets did it between 2011-2012. This very offseason, the Padres are doing it again, and the Mariners are doing it as well. Based on data, the home-run factors for each ballpark went up after the adjustments, but the run-scoring factors didn’t, which I found to be of interest.

This post, as indicated, is a follow-up, made necessary for two reasons. For one, I overlooked the White Sox, who, between 2000-2001, moved in the fences in what’s now known as U.S. Cellular Field. I don’t know how that escaped my attention before. For two, if we’re going to look at places that moved in the fences, we should also look at places that moved out the fences, because we can learn from those examples too. Between 2003-2004, the Royals moved the fences in Kauffman back to where they were long before, prior to the adjustments in the 90s. And, between 2005-2006, the Phillies made adjustments at Citizens Bank Park, in response to the feeling the place was a bandbox. Once again, we examine the data, in order.

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Michael Bourn was supposed to become a very highly-paid player. Then all the teams with center-field vacancies started filling them with other guys, leaving Bourn on the market. It was an impossible market to read, and, per usual, people started wondering if Scott Boras had overplayed his hand. Eventually there was talk that the Mets would be interested, if they could negotiate to have their first draft pick protected. So, for a short while, it looked like Bourn could sign with the Mets. But, instead, Bourn has now signed with the Indians, joining fellow free-agent acquisition Nick Swisher. And Bourn is going to be a very highly-paid player, if to a lesser extent than expected.

The terms are as such: four years and $48 million, guaranteed, with a vesting fifth-year option worth $12 million. Ages ago, the FanGraphs audience — that’s you! — projected that Bourn would sign for five years and $70 million. So, relative to expectations, Cleveland has done pretty well.

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Players have begun to report to their various camps, and while whole entire teams aren’t yet together, spring training is officially on the doorstep, preparing to knock. For some, this is the most wonderful time; for others, this is a time most miserable. Soon, there will be practices, and then there will be games. When there are games, there will be statistics, and when there are statistics, there will be attempted interpretations of the statistics. There’s no such thing as a baseball number that goes by un-analyzed.

On countless occasions before you’ve probably seen attempted correlations between spring-training statistics and regular-season statistics. What we care about, after all, are those statistics that might be meaningful, so it’s important to check the spring numbers for meaning. Is there anything in there? Is it possible to identify imminent breakouts or collapses? Plenty of people have examined plenty of correlations. I know I’ve done it myself, and I didn’t come up with the idea. It comes around every year.

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Last week, I presented my list of the 10 best transactions of the off-season. Of course, if there’s a best, there also has to be a worst, so today, we look at the flip side of the winter maneuvers. I will note, however, that this list was harder to put together than last week’s version, as MLB teams are getting smarter and there simply aren’t as many total head-scratching moves made anymore. No one’s giving out Gary Matthews Jr or Barry Zito contracts these days. The biggest potential landmine of the winter was paying Kyle Lohse as if his ERA represented his actual talent level, and every team in baseball decided to pass on that kind of signing. So, while I don’t love most of the moves below, several of them are more defensible than moves in previous off-seasons. The worst moves aren’t as bad as bad as they used to be.

Without further ado, on to the list.

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