Archive for Daily Graphings

Colorado might be the place that most made people aware that baseball works differently in different ballparks. It was pretty hard to deny the fact that, in Colorado, hit baseballs just took off. Since people became aware of Colorado playing in a hitter-friendly stadium, many people have also become aware of San Diego and Seattle playing in pitcher-friendly stadiums. Petco Park and Safeco Field are two of baseball’s newer parks, and to date they’ve played reasonably extreme. Because of their established pitcher-friendliness, both Petco and Safeco are having their dimensions adjusted this offseason. The idea isn’t to make the ballparks hitter-friendly — it’s to make them more hitter-friendly, or basically more neutral. You bring the fences in, and it follows that offense ought to go up.

Yet it’s interesting what we can observe in recent history. I can identify four instances in which fences were moved in somewhere with the idea of helping the hitters. Between 1994-1995, the Royals made adjustments at Kauffman Stadium. Between 2002-2003, the Tigers made adjustments at Comerica Park. Between 2005-2006, the Padres made an adjustment at Petco, which obviously wasn’t enough. And, between 2011-2012, the Mets made adjustments at Citi Field. Though simple park factors are imperfect and while in certain cases we’re working with limited data, the relevant numbers are of interest. We’ll go in order.

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It was about time for Todd Frazier. The Cincinnati Reds slugger was one of the top rookies in the National League last season, and arguably the most valuable player on a team that won 97 games. Drafted 34th overall in 2007, he could have been in Dusty Baker’s lineup earlier than he was.

Two lines in his 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook bio help explain his delayed arrival. In rating him Cincinnati’s top prospect, the publication described Frazier as “a jack of all trades but a master of none” and listed his position was as “OF/2B/3B.” Originally a shortstop, he had become a man without a defensive home.

Last year, his versatility proved more of a blessing than a curse. When Joey Votto went on the shelf, Frazier stepped in and provided solid production at first base. When Scott Rolen went down, he did the same at third base. Overall, he hit .273/.331/.498, with 19 home runs, in 128 games.

Frazier, who celebrates his 27th birthday on Tuesday, heads into the 2013 season as Cincinnati’s starting third baseman.

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David Laurila: Are you finally an established big-leaguer?

Todd Frazier: I have that first year under my belt, but I don’t think I’m an established big-leaguer. You need at least a couple of years in to be that, but I do feel I’m a big-league ballplayer. I think I’ve opened some eyes, although there’s always room for improvement.

It’s crazy, because you play in the minor leagues — you wait your time — and when you finally get your chance, it’s: `What are you going to do with it now?’ Often, when guys get called up, they play a lot. When I got called up, I was in a pinch-hitting role. I told myself that when I get that opportunity, I need to step up. I think I was 5-for-6, or 6-for-7, as a pinch-hitter and was able to help the team enough that they kept me on. The next step was to show I belonged, and I did that. I think I proved I belong.

DL: Did not establishing yourself in any one position hold you back? Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the Marlins, but of the time I do spend thinking about the Marlins, the bulk of it is spent thinking about that one home run Giancarlo Stanton blasted off Jamie Moyer. You know the one — the one that broke the scoreboard, the one that set an ESPN Home Run Tracker speed-off-bat record. The home run, just fair, was also a grand slam, and it was the hardest-hit home run baseball’s seen in at least seven years. Stanton didn’t catch up to a blazing heater. This was Jamie Moyer, after all. Stanton ripped a full-count changeup at 72 miles per hour.

There exists some sentiment that harder throwers will give up harder contact than softer throwers. Less contact, of course, but also harder contact. The idea is that Aroldis Chapman‘s balls in play will be struck harder than Livan Hernandez’s balls in play. It’s based in very simple physics: we care about the velocity of the ball, the mass of the ball, the velocity of the bat, and the mass of the bat. Hold everything else constant and, as you increase the ball’s velocity, you end up with a greater speed off the bat. The reality is more complicated than this, but this gets to the core.

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On Monday, we looked at three vetoed trades, and I thought today we’d look at three more.

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In 2008, Mike Aviles was a 27-year-old minor league infielder in the Royals’ system who had to get a lucky break for the club to play him over this historically terrible Tony Pena, Jr. Yesterday, the soon-to-be 32-year-old Aviles got his first multi-year, guaranteed deal with Cleveland, which bought out his last two years of arbitration for $6 million and a club option for 2015. It has been quite the odyssey for Aviles, who was drafted by the Royals seventh round in 2003, in large part because he would sign for a $1,000 signing bonus (David Glass is great, isn’t he? Let’s give a hand to David Glass, folks!), has seen himself passed over for the likes of the aforementioned Pena, Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz, and was traded twice this winter, including once for a manager.

Despite all that, Aviles has shown himself to be a useful player — and while this contract is hardly huge in itself — it might have interesting implications for how Cleveland’s roster might shake out in the near future.

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I was going to do my list of the 10 worst off-season transactions today, but I’m going to push it back to next week, since I have some things to say about yesterday’s news.

The Mariners are apparently set to sign Felix Hernandez to the largest contract ever given to a Major League pitcher. The total commitment is $175 million over seven years. It’s a staggering amount for a guy who wasn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2014 season, and in many ways, this contract is the continuation of the trend that we saw begin last year with Joey Votto’s deal with the Reds. Here’s what I wrote a year ago when that deal was announced:

So, at this point, we have a couple of options – we can continue to be shocked and amazed at the growing rate of contracts that guarantee big money to players from 2018 and beyond, or we can adjust our expectations for what premium players are going to be able to command going forward. With the promise of new money flowing into many organizations over the next three to five years, I’d imagine we’ll see more and more teams being aggressive in trying to lock up their young stars before they get to free agency and have to bid against whichever franchise just happened to renegotiate their television contract a few months prior.

For the Reds, the equation was pretty simple – keep Votto and contend during the run-up to the expiration of their television deal, or trade him away, rebuild, and come to the table asking for more money after a couple of years of going young and probably taking their lumps. Given those options, giving Votto a couple of extra years at the back end to increase their bargaining position doesn’t look quite so crazy.

…

This deal is going to have lasting repercussions on the sport. Not only does it suggest that the Reds are going to remain competitive in the NL Central going forward, but it also resets the price expectations for every pre-free agent player in the sport. Congratulations, players, all of your expected prices just went up. Way up.

Felix’s deal with the Mariners is the pitcher’s version of Votto’s deal with the Reds. It’s a free agent price for a pitcher who wasn’t a free agent, and in that sense, there’s a pretty good argument to be made that it’s too much money. The Mariners are taking on significant additional risk by guaranteeing him his 2015-2019 salaries now, and like with Votto, that risk wasn’t offset by getting a below market price on the deal. Given the history of pitcher attrition, there’s a significant chance that this deal will go south for the Mariners, and they’ll end up with an expensive and overpaid former ace. Most good young pitchers don’t turn into good old pitchers, and the Mariners have just made a huge bet on Felix being the exception rather than the rule.

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FanGraphs+ is here! And all week, we’ve been giving away free subscriptions to the service just for skips and skittles. And since it’s one o’clock Eastern — yes, my colleague Carson Cistulli has had considerable difficulty making the time, but that’s fine — that means it’s time for another edition of the vaunted FanGraphs+ Player-Profile Game!

I: post a profile — one of the 1100+ player profiles that FanGraphs+ offers — with important information redacted. You: guess what player the profile belongs to. Current subscribers are disqualified, and winning without leaderboard work is encouraged.

Today’s profile sprung forth from the magnificent mind of Mike Newman one day:

Sure, the tools are impressive, but [Player]’s baseball skills also need to develop. And with [Player] making his full-season debut in 2013, the center fielder is behind the learning curve with respect to refining those skills: [Player] struck out 30-plus percent of the time in the [minor leagues]. This, after undergoing an overhaul of his hitting mechanics. In dynasty formats, I’d be looking to sell [Player] immediately. Let another owner gamble on his upside. In moderately deep leagues, a shrewd owner might even cash out of [Player} and buy White Sox Trayce Thompson as a penny stock. In terms of talent, they are similar players. (Mike Newman)

The name Doug Clark shouldn’t mean much to fans of Major League Baseball. His name is in the record book — he appeared in eight games for San Francisco in 2005 and six for Oakland the next year. He went 1-for-11 with a walk and five strikeouts in his 12 plate appearances. On June 29th, 2006, Clark pinch hit for Dan Haren in the top of the seventh inning. Brian Sikorski struck him out, and his MLB career was over.

Most Americans never knew Doug Clark as a baseball player, and those who did likely forgot him quickly. But Clark’s baseball life was far from over.

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Gary Bell was late for the glory. He debuted with the Cleveland Indians in 1958, one season removed from the best 10-year stretch in franchise history. From 1948 to 1957, the Tribe won at least 88 games nine times.

That doesn’t mean he didn’t enjoy himself. The right-hander was a hard thrower, and he lived life the same way. He won 121 games in 12 big-league seasons, and there were plenty of laughs to go with the strikeouts. Seventy-eight years old, he’s as gregarious today as he was in his playing days.

Bell talked about his time in Cleveland, including notable teammates, during a visit to Fenway Park last season.

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David Laurila: You broke into the big leagues in 1958. What was baseball in Cleveland like at that time?

Gary Bell: Cheap. I was making $7,000 a year, which is a little different from now. Our team was pretty good. My first year, we finished third or fourth, but in 1959 we finished second and probably should have won it. That’s the year the White Sox beat us out. It would have been a nice World Series. The Dodgers played in the Coliseum, which held 100,000. We got 75,000 in Cleveland, so it would have been a huge payoff for those days, probably have been five or 10 grand.

DL: You had some notable teammates.

GB: When I came up, old, great pitchers like Bob Lemon and Mike Garcia were still there. I didn’t really learn from them, though. Back in those days, if you were a rookie you were nothing. They didn’t want to help you, because they were afraid you were going to take their job. Herb Score was there, as well.

DL: You also played with “Sudden Sam” McDowell and the younger version of Luis Tiant. Which of them threw harder? Read the rest of this entry »

At present, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw are three of the very greatest starting pitchers in the game. They’re also all two years away from free-agent eligibility, so there’s been talk of long-term contract extensions. Dave wrote about this subject last month, and he estimated that Hernandez could end up with a seven-year commitment worth about $150 million. That would be five years at $22 million apiece, attached to the end of the two years for which Felix is already signed.

Thursday has brought news of no confirmations. However, it’s also brought a report out of USA Today that Hernandez and the Mariners have agreed to terms on a seven-year deal worth $175 million. Follow-up reports say it isn’t official, and that there are still some little issues to work out, but the hard part looks to have been conquered. While the numbers might change a bit, it seems this should get finalized, and Hernandez should end up with a five-year contract extension, plus raises in 2013 and 2014. What we’re looking at is a seven-year commitment to a pitcher with a $25 million average annual value.

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