Archive for Daily Graphings

Is Josh Johnson still an ace?

The 2012 season had some encouraging signs after shoulder injuries cut short potential Cy Young campaigns in 2010 and 2011. Johnson posted a 3.81 ERA and 3.40 FIP, but more importantly he took the mound 31 times, showing he at least has the ability to make it through an entire season without major issue.

But the results have to be considered unsatisfactory relative the the prior three seasons. In 458 innings from 2009 to 2011, Johnson managed a brilliant 2.64 ERA and 2.74 FIP. I watched one of Johnson’s more typical starts from 2012 — September 12th against Philadelphia (7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 1 HR) — and I came away with two questions, the answers to which will determined if Johnson can return to his prior ace level.

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In case you hadn’t heard, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013 has hit internet bookshelves. You can read all about it here in Dave Studeman’s post, or you can listen to Carson Cistulli and myself discuss it here on a FanGraphs Audio podcast.

Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So each day this week, we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. You can find Monday’s and Tuesday’s contest here and here, if you’re into that sort of thing. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle or Nook versions). It’s just that simple!

Today’s question comes from the article entitled “This Game Is Rigged: The Orioles’ Amazing Bullpen.” Written by THT’s venerable leader Dave Studeman, it takes a look back at the season that was through the lens of WPA. While Studes spends the bulk of the essay talking about just how good the Orioles’ bullpen was, he also details some other flights of WPA fancy from 2012. In that part of the essay you will find some very interesting nuggets. And that brings us, dear reader, to the trivia question before you today:

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Seeing prospects in person is my passion. In 2012, I was fortunate enough to visit parks in five different leagues — collecting information and video on 200 legitimate prospects or more. The lists released over the next few weeks will highlight the best prospects I’ve seen in person at each position during the 2012 season. The rankings will be adjusted based on projected position at the major league level, not present position (in italics if ranking includes position shift). After writing the first three lists, I realized there’s really no way to keep statistical information out of the equation completely and focus on scouting/projection alone. This has caused me to hedge my bets a bit on high ceiling talents and focus more on the complete player. Additionally, understand this is not meant to be a complete list of the best prospects at each position across all of Minor League Baseball, but the best of what I’ve seen.

Previous Rankings:
The Catchers
The First Basemen
The Second Basemen
The Third Basemen
The Shortstops
The Corner Outfielders
The Center Fielders
The Relief Pitchers

1. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles

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At the start of last offseason, Ryan Madson had big dreams. For a time, it appeared he was on the verge of signing a big four-year contract. He didn’t, ultimately having to settle for a one-year contract, and then he missed that one year in its entirety after sustaining a torn UCL. Tommy John surgery completely wiped out Madson’s 2012.

The Angels had big dreams, too. They signed Albert Pujols, they signed C.J. Wilson, they announced the terms of a massive new TV contract, and they set their sights on the World Series. The Angels didn’t even make the playoffs, even though the playoff pool had expanded by 25 percent. The Angels missed the playoffs in part because of their inconsistent bullpen.

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Fair or not, the most common way people identify suspected “steroid cheats” is to look for sudden, unexpected improvements in power, specifically big jumps in home runs. Whenever a hitter shows a big power surge, especially later in his career, there will always be folks claiming that they had some chemical assistance. And they do it because of cases like Carlos Ruiz.

Ruiz had a breakout season in 2012, adding power to his repertoire for the first time at age 33. He’d been a quality player for the last few years, mostly based on his ability to make a lot of contact and occasionally drive the ball into the gaps. Homers weren’t really his thing. From 2006 to 2011, his career HR/FB rate was 6.3%, and he posted an ISO of .128.

Last year, his HR/FB rate was 15.1%, and his ISO was .215. Or, if you prefer pictures, here’s Carlos Ruiz’s slugging percentage, by year, compared to league average.

Yeah. It’s not hard to figure out which of these is not like the others. And so, today, no one is really shocked that Carlos Ruiz has been suspended 25 games for failing a drug test, specifically one for amphetamines. Reports suggest that he’s admitted to taking Adderall, which has gained popularity as a performance enhancing drug over the last few years. Because MLB treats amphetamines different from PEDs, the suspension means that this is actually Ruiz’s second failed test – a first failed test for amphetamines simply requires an increased level of future testing.

And so, when Ruiz issues a statement that says he’s “sincerely regretful” for his “mistake”, everyone just rolls their eyes. Given his career path, no one is surprised today. Given his multiple failed tests, his credibility is basically shot. Ruiz is only going to miss the first 25 games of 2013, but he’s now going to be followed around by a large cloud of skepticism.

If he doesn’t hit after the suspension is over, it will be evidence that the drugs were the reason he was good in the first place. If he does hit, it will just be evidence that he’s found a way to beat the system. This is the world we live in now. Guys who just suddenly start hitting for power are guilty until proven innocent. And as long as guys like Carlos Ruiz keep providing evidence to support that mentality, it’s just going to grow.

I feel bad for the guys who really are clean and just improve through natural means. I don’t like to assume the worst. I just wish the players would stop giving us reasons to think that every abnormal power spike really is due to drug use. As long as they keep providing evidence for the cliche, it will survive. Unlike Carlos Ruiz’s 2012 power spike, most likely.

There’s a fair amount of belief out there that the Marlins should finish the job they started with the Blue Jays and trade their biggest chip for a huge package now. And the 23-year-old masher now named Giancarlo Stanton is quite the chip. He enters his final seasons at the league minimum just seven home runs short of triple digits, and still has three years of team control remaining after the upcoming one. It’s those years of control that provide room for the most debate about his value.

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Early Sunday morning, Twitter was abuzz with news that the Dodgers and Fox Sports West had agreed to a 25-year broadcast deal valued between $6 billion and $7 billion. By Sunday afternoon, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times had confirmed the outline of the deal, but cautioned that the Dodgers and Fox were still negotiating, with a November 30 deadline looming.

As I explained last week in this post, the parties’ existing agreement gave Fox an exclusive, 45-day window in which to negotiate a new deal to govern the 2014 season and beyond. Hence, the November 30 deadline. If an agreement isn’t inked by Friday, the Dodgers must submit a final offer to Fox by December 7. Fox then has 30 days to accept or reject the offer. If Fox rejects the offer, the Dodgers are free to negotiate with whomever they want.

However the negotiations play out, it’s clear now that the Dodgers’ local TV revenue is about to enter the stratosphere. A 25-year deal worth between $6 billion and $7 billion would net the Dodgers between $240 million and $280 million per year. Per year. That’s more than any team has ever spent on player salaries in a single season — even the Yankees. And it’s nearly double the amount of local TV revenue pulled in annually by the team with the second-most lucrative deal — the other Los Angeles team (the Angels) — which entered into a 17-year deal with Fox Sports West worth $2.5 billion.

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This morning, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mets offered David Wright a six year, $100 million extension, noting that it was an offer that Wright was sure to refuse. After all, the terms of the extension are basically equal to what the Nationals gave Ryan Zimmerman, and he was coming off a mediocre season and was two years away from free agency. Evan Longoria got a six year, $100 million extension from the Rays yesterday, and he was four years away from free agency. If the Mets want to sign Wright, they’re going to have to do a lot better than that, right?

Well, yes and no. It’s unlikely that Wright is going to sign for 6/100. He probably should get more than Ryan Zimmerman did. But, at the same time, we have to recognize that the offer isn’t that far away from what a reasonable extension for Wright should look like, and the ground to cover isn’t as large as it might sound at first glance.

Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen a decent amount of contract extensions for players headed into their walk years, and in general, so there’s a pretty well established market price for quality players one year from free agency.

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A couple of weeks ago, I wrote up a comparison between Scott Feldman and Brandon McCarthy, noting that the two pitchers were probably more similar than their reputations would lead you to believe. As McCarthy noted in response, both pitchers altered their approaches to lean on the cut fastball while they were teammates in Texas, and the similarities are likely not a coincidence, given the influence that they had on each other.

In the closing of the post, I noted that Feldman “might be one of the best buys on the market.” Well, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s headed to the north side of Chicago — the Cubs are making themselves the destination for undervalued starting pitchers.

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In case you hadn’t heard, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013 has hit internet bookshelves. You can read all about it here in Dave Studeman’s post, or you can listen to Carson Cistulli and myself discuss it here on a FanGraphs Audio podcast.

Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So each day this week, we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. You can find yesterday’s contest here, if you’re into that sort of thing. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle or Nook versions). It’s just that simple!

Today’s question comes from the article entitled “Examining Umpire Strike Zones.” Written by THT’s Chris Jaffe, it takes a historical look at umpires, through the lens of who has issued the most and fewest walks and strikeouts. In doing so, Jaffe utilizes a plus/minus stat to give the numbers some context. In this way, we can see which umps have issued the most or fewest walks or strikeouts on a rate basis as well, as some umps — like Hall of Famer Bill Klem, for instance — worked games for a really long time. So the trivia question before you today, dear reader, is this:

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