Archive for Daily Graphings

The general manager of the Cincinnati Reds is Walt Jocketty. Jocketty and the Reds have known there was a decision they’d have to make on Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has proven himself as a closer; Chapman has not yet proven himself as a starter, but it would sure be neat if he could, and if he did. This is what Jocketty had to say on the matter earlier in the offseason:

“We haven’t made a decision on Chapman as a starter or as a reliever,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. “We’re talking about it.”
[…]
“It depends on if we re-sign [Jonathan] Broxton and [Ryan] Madson,” Jocketty said. “Or if we get another closer.”

Today, there’s word that the Reds and Broxton are having serious discussions about a three-year contract. Obviously, no contract has yet been signed. Obviously, the Reds haven’t come out and declared that Chapman is moving to the starting rotation. But what it looks like is that the Reds will re-sign Broxton and try to get Chapman to start. Just because that might not be how it works out doesn’t mean that isn’t how it’s most likely to work out.

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In his first go-round with the White Sox in 2009, Brent Lillibridge wasn’t good, and that September he turned 26. Lillibridge knew he needed to make changes, and his coaches knew he needed to make changes, and so that offseason Lillibridge re-tooled his swing. In the minors, in 2010, he was more or less the same as he was in 2009. In the majors, in 2010, he was a little better than he was in 2009. Yet he posted a 60 wRC+, and a negative WAR.

In the majors in 2011, Lillibridge posted a 125 wRC+, and a strongly positive WAR.

In the majors in 2012, Lillibridge posted a 43 wRC+, and a negative WAR.

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There are free agents whose markets are presently almost complete mysteries. I haven’t the foggiest idea which team might be most likely to sign Josh Hamilton, and odds are the same goes for you. Then there are the free agents whose markets seem better known. B.J. Upton appears to be nearing a decision, and we have a pretty good idea of who he’s deciding between. And Mike Napoli’s market includes three teams, if reports are to be believed. He’s already met with the Mariners, he’s already met with the Red Sox, and he’s shortly to meet with the Rangers. More suitors could emerge, but that’s the picture right now.

Napoli is a somewhat high-profile free agent, being a power hitter capable of playing behind the plate. He’s also a somewhat in-demand free agent, so I thought it’d be a good idea to run a little Mike Napoli Q&A. We all want to know as much as we can about the various free agents — there is much to know about Mike Napoli, just as there is much to know about everyone.

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Until he was dethroned by Mike Trout this summer, Evan Longoria had been a fixture atop my annual Trade Value series. It was partially due to the fact that he was both young and an excellent player, but, primarily, he ruled the list because his contract was so absurdly slanted in the Rays favor. Despite already racking up +29 WAR in his first four years in the Majors, Longoria has made a total of $8.5 million in salary to date, and is scheduled to make just $6 million in 2013. For comparison, Joey Votto — who also broke into the league as a full-time player in 2008 — has made $16 million thus far, is slated to make $17 million in 2013, and signed a $225 million extension that will keep him in Cincinnati through his age 37 season.

Well, today, Longoria joined Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and Ryan Braun in signing contracts that should essentially take him through the rest of his productive career. The extension is officially for nine years, beginning next season, though it begins by guaranteeing the three team options the Rays already held for 2014-2016. Under the previously agreed upon deal, Longoria will earn $7.5 million, $11 million, and then $11.5 million before the new years under the contract he signed today kick in.

The breakdown of the contract hasn’t been released yet, but the new deal adds six more years and $100 million in guaranteed salaries, so the AAV of the extension is right around $17 million per season for his 2017-2022 seasons, and then there’s a team option — apparently mandatory if signing a deal with Tampa Bay — for 2023.

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In case you hadn’t heard, The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013 has hit internet bookshelves. You can read all about it here in Dave Studeman’s post, or you can listen to Carson Cistulli and myself discuss it here on the FanGraphs Audio podcast he posted earlier today.

Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So each day this week, we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle or Nook versions). It’s just that simple!

Today’s question comes from the article entitled “The Giants and Scutaro Win, as Does Valverde (Sort Of).” Written by THT’s Brad Johnson, it looks at the postseason through the lens of The Hardball Times’ traditional postseason win probability metric, Championships Added. It’s one of the book’s annual articles, and as such it seems like a good place to start.

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Bruce Walton understands the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff as well as anyone. This season was his 16th in the organization and 11th with the big-league club. He served as bullpen coach from 2002-2009 and has been the pitching coach since 2010.

It wasn’t an easy year for the 49-year-old former A’s, Expos and Rockies right-hander. Multiple members of the Jays’ staff went down with injuries, while others — most notably Ricky Romero — struggled. Walton saw his hurlers issue the most walks in the American League and finish with the fourth-worst ERA.

The revamped Torontonians are expected to compete for a pennant next season, but in order for that to happen, the pitchers will need to be healthier and more productive. Part of that responsibility — assuming new manager John Gibbons retains him — will fall on Walton, who talked pitching on a visit to Fenway Park this summer.

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David Laurila: How do pitchers get big-league hitters out?

Bruce Walton: I think it’s a combination of things. The first thing you really have to learn is where down is — where down in the strike zone actually is. Pounding down and pitching at the knees is your best friend. If you stay down with all of your pitches, it’s much easier to get guys out.

DL: Can working up in the zone be effective?

BW: I don’t know if the high strike is where you want to pitch. I think above the strike zone is where you want to pitch when you’re up. Since I’ve been in the big leagues, the high strike is around the belt, and belt-high is a dangerous place.

DL: Is the strike zone too small?

BW: No, it’s not too small. When you’re talking about a small strike zone, it’s more about whether you can manipulate the strike zone by being more efficient, as far as more quality pitches on the edges. The strike zone is the strike zone. It’s neither too small, nor too big.

DL: How does Ricky Romero get guys out?

BW: Ricky gets guys out by working back and forth in the zone, and with late movement. He relies on very good movement at the last possible moment before the ball hits the bat. He’s got tremendous sink and he’s got tremendous cut. He also has the ability to work back and forth in the zone with his changeup.

DL: What is the issue when he’s not getting guys out? Read the rest of this entry »

I suppose this doesn’t really need much of an introduction. The season is over, and we have all the data. I’m particularly interested in things that happened at the extremes. At the end of September, I wrote up The 2012 Season In Inside Home Runs. That showed the most inside pitches that were hit for home runs. A week ago, I wrote up The 2012 Season In Outside Home Runs. That showed the most outside pitches that were hit for home runs. Now I’m going to show the lowest pitches that were hit for home runs. I bet you can’t guess what comes next in the series!

The thing about all of these pitches, incidentally, is that they were balls. They were really actually strikes — home runs are strikes — but they were destined to be balls, perhaps even intended to be balls, until the batters swung at them and hit them for dingers. Plate discipline is hard to teach for a number of reasons, I’m sure. Any sort of teaching is hard. But one of the reasons is probably that professional hitters are very confident, and not all swings at balls turn out bad. Sometimes they turn out good, allowing one to believe they might always turn out good. “I can punish anything even close to the plate,” one might believe. “I can punish anything even if it isn’t close to the plate at all,” the #1 hitter on this list definitely believes.

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Following is a very basic list of things we know to be true about Chone Figgins:

• He used to be very successful at baseball
• Lately he has been far less successful at baseball
• Tuesday night he was finally dropped by the Mariners
• Relative to other players, he is little

There’s a lot more to Chone Figgins than that — there’s a lot more to everybody than that — but that’s the skeleton. If you were putting your son to sleep, and you were telling him about various baseball players, and the first one you told him about was Chone Figgins, you’d go into more detail. If you were putting your son to sleep, and you were telling him about various baseball players, and the ninetieth one you told him about was Chone Figgins, you’d skip a lot of the details out of exasperation. Those are the most fundamental details.

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After years of having Manny Ramirez and then Jason Bay patrol left field in front of the Green Monster, the Red Sox made a dramatic change in course in 2011 by bringing in Carl Crawford. Instead of using the position to get another bat-first, hide-the-women-and-children defender into the line-up, the Sox opted for speed and defense instead. Crawford, of course, was a disaster, and the Red Sox took advantage of an opportunity to rid themselves of the remainder of his contract by shipping him to Los Angeles in August.

With their new found savings creating a hole in left field, the Red Sox have reportedly decided to go back to the old left field plan, and are nearing a two year contract with right handed slugger Jonny Gomes. Given that they already re-signed David Ortiz, DH is not open in Boston, so Gomes’ playing time is going to have to come in left field. And that makes this signing pretty interesting.

Because he spent 2009-2011 in the National League — 2 1/2 years with the Reds, half a season as a National — he’s played a decent amount of outfield during his career. However, he’s never been a regular OF in the American League, because AL teams have the ability to DH guys like Gomes, and both of his previous AL employers have taken advantage of that option.

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When healthy, Jason Hammel was the Orioles’ clear ace in 2012. The 29-year-old added a power sinker to his classic fastball-curveball-slider arsenal. The addition became a career year — Hammel recorded a 3.43 ERA and a 3.29 FIP. The Orioles’ ability to withstand getting just 20 starts from Hammel ranks among the greatest mysteries in a mystery filled season.

To take a look at just how Hammel used his new repertoire to improve last season, let’s take a look at his magnum opus: a complete game, one-hit shutout against the Braves on June 16th.

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