When I began writing this piece about Alek Thomas‘ defense, it was in response to the excellence he had shown in the postseason as Arizona’s everyday centerfielder. Since then, an elephant walked into the room in the form of his ninth-inning error in Game 5 of the World Series, and while it didn’t cost the Diamondbacks the title or even the game, it undoubtedly left a bitter taste in his mouth that he’ll likely spend much of the offseason trying to rinse out. But his late-game error was a tragically timed blip on an otherwise excellent performance this October — one that speaks to the specific improvements he’s made to his outfield defense, and how those adjustments have altered his forecast as a big leaguer. So let’s take a look at how Thomas’ defense has evolved since his days as a bat-first prospect, rewinding to this catch in Monday night’s Game 3.

That catch was one of several he made throughout the postseason, which provided Thomas with a national audience to wow with his range in the outfield. The way he covered ground out there played well on TV, too, particularly how he went back on deep balls to center field, sprinting with his head down toward the wall and making mid-route adjustments as needed. But while his wall-banging robbery of what would otherwise have been an RBI double for Mitch Garver was an obvious defensive highlight in its own right, it was also a clear indication of the improvements Thomas has made to his center field defense over the past couple seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

The confetti has fallen, the Texas Rangers are World Series champions, and the offseason is upon us. Unlike the other major sports, the baseball offseason is usually a slow drip, which means there are a lot of transaction and roster deadlines between now and when pitchers and catchers report in the spring. Here are some key dates and events to keep in mind as you navigate the coming winter.

November 2

All XX(B) players officially become free agents

XX(B) free agents include all players with six or more years of service on an expiring contract who ended the season on the major league roster or injured list, excluding those with contract options or opt outs, as their decision doesn’t have to occur until later. There are a few exceptions to the rule, as due to clauses in their contracts, players with NPB or KBO experience like Shintaro Fujinami need not be at six years of service to reach free agency, as Fujinami will. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sure it feels fantastic to win a Cy Young or Most Valuable Player award. It’s all your hard work and dedication to your craft being rewarded at the highest possible level. Aaron Judge has won an MVP award himself after swatting 62 home runs in 2022. But this year, he was honored with an even more prestigious award — one separate from the game, and one that is dedicated to one of the most altruistic professional athletes of any generation, Roberto Clemente.

Each year, one player from every team is nominated for the Roberto Clemente Award, and one is honored as the recipient. Here are the criteria, via MLB.com: “The Roberto Clemente Award is bestowed annually to the player who best represents the game of baseball through extraordinary character, community involvement, philanthropy and positive contributions, both on and off the field.”

Winning this award is an incredible achievement for Judge, who started the ALL RISE Foundation in 2018 and has been a pioneer in supporting the Bronx, Fresno County, San Joaquin County, and his childhood home of Linden, California. The foundation facilitates several initiatives and programs including but not limited to student leadership development, youth character, health and well-being, and much more. Developing communities and providing the youth with the resources they need to become future leaders is at the crux of the foundation.

Judge is the first Yankees player to receive the award since Derek Jeter in 2009. Many baseball stars know the importance of using their resources to imbue the qualities of somebody like Clemente. But it is even more important for somebody like Jeter or Judge as public persons representing New York. Clemente is a hero, a legend — whatever word you want to use — to Puerto Ricans (and Latin America in general). And when I refer to Puerto Ricans, I’m talking about both those on the island and those who have migrated to the states, especially New York (Nuyoricans), of which there are many. Read the rest of this entry »

Luke Little was an afterthought when our 2023 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects list came out in early July. Pitching for Double-A Tennessee at the time, the now–23-year-old southpaw garnered no more than an honorable mention on a list that ran 52 players deep. His stock has since risen markedly. By season’s end, he had earned a big league cup of coffee and thrown 6.2 scoreless innings over seven appearances. Featuring a high-octane heater and a sweeper delivered from a low arm slot, he fanned a dozen batters and allowed just five hits.

His numbers across three levels of the minor leagues were every bit as impressive. Over 36 appearances, all but four as a reliever, the 2020 fourth-round pick out of San Jacinto College had 105 strikeouts and surrendered 40 hits in 63.2 innings. He’s an imposing figure on the mound: The Charlotte, North Carolina native stands 6-foot-8 and weighs 270 pounds.

Little discussed his repertoire and delivery prior to a late-September game at Wrigley Field.

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David Laurila: Who are you on the mound? For instance, do you identify as a power pitcher?

Luke Little: “I like to think I’m a power pitcher. Obviously, I throw hard. At the same time, I like to think that I have good offspeed pitches. I’ve been really comfortable with my slider, and I’ve also got a good feel for my splitter now, although I haven’t thrown it too much.”

Laurila: How hard are you throwing?

Little: “Last night [September 19 against the Pirates], I sat 97 [mph] with my fastball, and my slider was 81–82. I was up to 99 with my fastball at the beginning of the year, [which is] the hardest I’ve ever thrown, when I was a starter [with High-A South Bend].” Read the rest of this entry »

Shintaro Fujinami has a good understanding of how NPB compares to MLB. Prior to signing with the Oakland Athletics in January (and subsequently being traded to the Baltimore Orioles in July), the 29-year-old right-hander spent 10 seasons with the Hanshin Tigers. Along the way he faced many of Japan’s top hitters, with Central League stalwarts such as Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto among the standouts. The latter was the first name Fujinami mentioned when I asked which of his former position-player opponents would best perform stateside.

“I think that Okamoto, the third baseman for the Tokyo Yomiuri Giants, would be pretty good here,” replied Fujinama, who went 7-8 with a 7.18 ERA over 79 relief innings in his first MLB season. “He’s a power hitter in Japan, although a power hitter there isn’t the same as here. Power hitters in Japan won’t hit 40 home runs over here like Shohei Ohtani does. But he would do well.”

A 27-year-old right-handed hitter, Okamoto slugged an NPB-best 41 home runs this year while slashing .278/.374/.585. He’s gone deep at least 30 times in each of the last six seasons, a span that includes a .274 batting average and 108 strikeouts annually. Despite the not-low K totals, Fujinami believes that Okamoto possesses the bat-to-ball skills to handle MLB pitching. Moreover, he doesn’t feel that high heaters would bedevil the Yomiuri slugger.

“He has good contact-ability, and he’s also good at hitting fastballs,” Fujinami told me during our September conversation. “The fastball velocity here is higher than it is in Japan, but I feel that Okamoto could make an adjustment to that if he came here. I think that Okamoto can hit a fastball at the top of the zone better than Murakami. If I had to pick one to bring here to the states, I would pick Okamoto.” Read the rest of this entry »

In the cat and mouse game that is the postseason, every decision matters, regardless of how big or small. If a marginal competitive advantage can be exploited, odds are a team will take their chance. Last year, I investigated what I thought was a key reason for the Astros’ postseason success over the last decade. The piece explored swing path diversity and how Houston had more of it than any other team from 2021 to 2022. Constructing a balanced, dynamic lineup is one of the tools teams can use to keep pitchers and opposing managers honest. There are multiple ways to define balance in a lineup, including swing aggression, whiff tendencies, speed and athleticism, and handedness. But that piece focused on variance in Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) within lineups.

If you aren’t familiar with VBA, it’s the vertical orientation of the bat at contact, where 45 degrees is a diagonal bat. It is pitch height dependent – the number goes down as height increases (flatter bat) and goes up as height decreases (steeper bat), making it vary within a player’s own swing profile. There is also variance player to player. On average, Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman have much steeper barrels at impact than flatter-swinging hitters like Juan Soto and Randy Arozarena. VBA is one of multiple important bat tracking metrics — horizontal bat angle, point of contact, bat speed, acceleration, and time to contact are a few others — but VBA is the most easily accessible due to the computer vision work done at SwingGraphs. Read the rest of this entry »

Nick Pivetta had an intriguing and largely successful season. A starter to begin the year, the veteran right-hander was shifted to Boston’s bullpen in mid-May, only to return to the rotation a few months later and finish strong. Save for a smattering of rocky outings — mostly in the early going — he was actually solid throughout. All told, the 30-year-old Victoria, British Columbia native logged a 4.04 ERA and a 3.98 FIP over 142-and-two-thirds innings, the second-highest innings mark on the club.

He was often overpowering. Opposing hitters had a .207 BA and a .221 xBA versus his array of offerings, while his 31.2% strikeout rate ranked in the 93rd percentile among big league hurlers per Baseball Savant. An in-season addition to the Red Sox righty’s repertoire was especially effective: Pivetta posted a 44.4% whiff rate and allowed just a .114 BA and a .127 xBA on his sweeper.

Pivetta, who ended up making 16 starts and 22 relief appearances on the season, discussed his 2023 performance on the final week of September.

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David Laurila: How would you assess your season as a whole?

Nick Pivetta: “I’d say it was good. I mean, I think I’ve handled the situation well. I’ve gone out and given my best effort — I’ve competed and put everything on the line for the organization — and that’s all I really focus on. I’m always making sure that I’m doing the best I can for the team.” Read the rest of this entry »

Cristian Javier had built an impressive postseason resume ahead of Game 7 of the ALCS. Across 12 relief appearances and four starts, he had compiled a 2.08 ERA and 7.5% championship win probability added. His first three starts in the playoffs were particularly impressive; he held the Yankees scoreless on a single hit in last year’s ALCS, was the starting pitcher of the Astros’ combined no-hitter in the World Series, and held the Twins to a single hit in the ALDS this year. His 18 total hits allowed and .123 opponent’s batting average were by far the lowest among any pitcher with more than 40 postseason innings pitched.

With such a strong track record, the Astros had to feel confident handing him the ball on Monday night. But things did not go according to plan, as Javier lasted six batters and recorded just a single out, allowing three runs on four hits and a walk, before getting pulled. It was his worst postseason outing of his career and a big reason why Houston isn’t back in the World Series to defend its championship. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the nice things about the playoffs is that there’s often just one game happening at a time. Don’t get me wrong. I love a summer day with a full slate of 15 games, but you are where your attention is, and there’s too much baseball happening in any one day for us to be present for all of it. When the whole of the baseball world gets compressed down to one high-stakes game, you catch little things that might otherwise have gone unnoticed.

During the NLCS, I noticed a little thing about Kevin Ginkel. It was about how he holds runners on second base, and man, does he hold runners on second base. Here’s the pitch that caught my attention:

Read the rest of this entry »

Chad Dallas emerged as one of the top under-the-radar pitching prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays organization this season. Tossing a system leading 123-and-third innings between High-A Vancouver and Double-A New Hampshire — 18 of his 23 starts came at the higher of the two levels — the 23-year-old right-hander went 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA and a 4.08 FIP. Featuring a spin-to-win five-pitch mix, he fanned 144 batters (also the most in the system) and allowed just 98 hits.

Dallas, Toronto’s fourth round pick in 2021 out of the University of Tennessee, discussed his breaker-heavy arsenal and approach when the New Hampshire Fisher Cats visited Portland, Maine earlier this summer.

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David Laurila: What is your repertoire and M.O. on the mound?

Chad Dallas: “I throw a four-seam, a slider, a curveball, an occasional changeup, and I recently added a cutter. I spin the ball a lot. I don’t attack a whole bunch of people with the fastball. I like to attack with my offspeed, sort of a pitch backwards kind of deal. Some teams know that, so there are also games where they start sitting soft and I mostly attack them with the heater and the cutter. Either way, I’m out there trying to throw as many strikes as possible.” Read the rest of this entry »