Archive for Daily Graphings

Phillies Promote Their Best Hitter From Triple-A

Today, the Phillies will add Rhys Hoskins to their roster, bringing him to the Majors as a left fielder after failing to find a trade partner for first baseman Tommy Joseph. A few months ago, manager Pete Mackanin said the two couldn’t coexist on the same National League roster, but after trading Howie Kendrick and losing Aaron Altherr to the disabled list, the team decided it was better to give Hoskins an audition at a spot they needed help than simply bench Joseph to install Hoskins at first base.

I don’t know how the left field experiment is going to go. Based on the outfield performances of other “how bad can he be out there?” first baseman, I’m guessing this will last until Altherr returns, and then everyone will agree they don’t really want to see Hoskins running around the outfield anymore. But despite the possibility of some pretty bad outfield defense, Hoskins still belongs in the Majors, because he’s probably already the team’s best hitter.

From our depth charts, here are the projected rest of season wOBAs for the Phillies position players.

Phillies Hitters Rest of Season
Name PA BA OBP SLG wOBA
Rhys Hoskins 91 0.264 0.343 0.500 0.356
Maikel Franco 192 0.262 0.315 0.461 0.327
Tommy Joseph 176 0.254 0.307 0.464 0.325
Odubel Herrera 194 0.279 0.335 0.424 0.324
Hyun Soo Kim 77 0.269 0.348 0.398 0.324
Aaron Altherr   126 0.248 0.320 0.437 0.322
Daniel Nava 104 0.261 0.346 0.384 0.321
Cesar Hernandez 192 0.278 0.350 0.382 0.320
Nick Williams 110 0.252 0.289 0.436 0.305
Brock Stassi 20 0.238 0.317 0.379 0.303
J.P. Crawford 11 0.236 0.323 0.359 0.300
Cameron Rupp 131 0.230 0.298 0.404 0.299
Scott Kingery 4 0.255 0.300 0.399 0.299
Ty Kelly 4 0.242 0.326 0.345 0.297
Dylan Cozens 5 0.218 0.282 0.416 0.296
Freddy Galvis 197 0.250 0.293 0.401 0.295
Andrew Knapp   60 0.234 0.309 0.364 0.291
Andres Blanco 85 0.238 0.300 0.363 0.289
Roman Quinn   16 0.241 0.304 0.354 0.287
Cam Perkins 33 0.247 0.295 0.368 0.286
Jorge Alfaro 10 0.224 0.267 0.362 0.270

It’s not even all that close, with Hoskins 30 wOBA points ahead of the next best projected hitters. Of course, this projection is entirely based on his minor league performance, so there’s more expected variance around that mean, but it’s pretty obvious Steamer loves Rhys Hoskins. And for good reason; he walks, doesn’t strike out, and hits for power, which are basically the three things you want to do at the plate.

While he’s been a little older than you’d like prospects to be at each level along the minor league ladder, Hoskins’ results have been so overwhelming that Steamer thinks he’s ready to step in and hit big league pitching from day one. As Eric Longenhagen has noted, some scouts have questioned the swing and the power he’ll show in the Majors, but the concerns raised about him are the same ones that were raised about Paul Goldschmidt when he was mostly overlooked as a prospect. You don’t want to project anyone to get to Goldschmidt’s level, but there are some similarities in their scouting profile and minor league performances, so it’s probably best not to buy comments about Hoskins’ limited upside just yet.

If he can hit like Steamer thinks he can hit, he’s going to be the Phillies first baseman for a good long while. And the Phillies offense might be a lot better tonight than it was yesterday.


Lars Anderson Discovers Japan, Part 4

Earlier this week, we ran what was originally planned as the final installment of a threepart series chronicling Lars Anderson’s experiences playing baseball in Japan. Thanks to popular demand — and Anderson’s interest in sharing additional stories — this is Part 4, with more to come.

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Lars Anderson: “Birdman Bats’ fearless, peerless leader, Gary Malec made the long trek to visit me in Japan and temporarily join this bizarre circus. He flew into Osaka and took three trains in order to meet the team for our game in Kagawa. As the Fighting Dogs rolled up to the stadium on the team bus, I saw my good friend standing there wearing a Birdman t-shirt and board shirts with his trademark chicken legs sticking out. By his side was a box of bats and a suitcase. He was also sporting a huge, goofy grin. It was a cool moment.

“I met Gary through a mutual friend. We initially bonded over music, going so far as to start the band Daytime Nightlife with Gary’s little brother, Mark. Gary was hand-turning birch bats at the time, which I was obviously intrigued by. They were immaculate as well. As the years progressed and our friendship grew, we decided to use my experience and connections in baseball — and his passion of making baseball bats — to start a baseball bat company.

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That Other Truly Dominant Starting Pitcher

Health is the only real weakness in Paxton’s profile at the moment. (Photo: hj_west)

 
In this, the year during which the all-time record for homers in an MLB season will be broken, there has been no shortage of dominant starting pitcher performances. From Clayton Kershaw to Max Scherzer in the NL to Chris Sale and Corey Kluber in the AL, true greatness has been on display. In this space not too long ago, I dug a little deeper into the exploits of Dodgers lefty Alex Wood. Today, let’s do the same in the AL and give Mariner lefty James Paxton his due.

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Indians Lose Michael Brantley, Add Jay Bruce

It was an eventful 24 hours for the Cleveland Indians outfield. On Tuesday, left fielder Michael Brantley sprained his ankle in a game against the Colorado Rockies, so Wednesday, the team put him on the disabled list and promptly traded for his replacement, Jay Bruce.

Because Bruce cleared waivers last week, the transaction was fairly straightforward. The Mets already knew they weren’t going to get much for him, as every team in baseball passed on taking on the remaining $4 million of his contract. So when Cleveland suddenly needed an outfielder, it represented a chance for the Mets to at least save some money while also freeing up playing time for Dominic Smith at first base. In exchange for assuming responsibility for the remainder of Bruce’s contract this year, Cleveland surrendered just RHP Ryder Ryan, a player so notable that this is the first time his name has ever been mentioned on the site.

Here’s what you need to know about Ryan: he was a 30th-round pick in the 2016 draft and is pitching in relief in A-ball as a 22-year-old. This trade isn’t exactly like the Indians claiming Bruce on waivers and the Mets just letting him go, but it’s basically that.

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Alex Wood’s Worrisome Trend

About a month ago, the notion of adding Yu Darvish seemed to be something of a luxury for the Dodgers. After all, not only had the Dodgers emerged as the best team in baseball, they had entered the season with the most pitching depth in the game.

But then Clayton Kershaw was sent to the DL, a place where Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir and Hyun-Jin Ryu have resided at times this season — and where they have been placed often throughout their careers. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mike Trout MVP Precedent

Most of the time when we talk about Mike Trout, we ask if anybody has ever done what he’s doing. Sometimes the answer is Mickey Mantle or Ty Cobb or Albert Pujols, but a lot of the time the answer is no and what Trout is doing is unprecedented. Today, we are asking two related questions:

  1. Could Mike Trout deserve the American League Most Valuable Player Award despite missing 39 games earlier this season?
  2. Does Mike Trout have a realistic chance to win MVP despite missing 39 games earlier this season?

While answering the second question might help prove the first through precedent, let’s restrict ourselves in the first part to the value Mike Trout provides. On Friday, I talked about Jose Altuve’s candidacy for MVP and showed this chart:

American League WAR Leaders
Name WAR ROS WAR EOS Projection
Jose Altuve 5.7 1.7 7.4
Mike Trout 4.5 2.8 7.3
Aaron Judge 5.8 1.4 7.2
Mookie Betts 4.4 1.8 6.2
Jose Ramirez 4.2 1.5 5.7
Andrelton Simmons 4.3 1.4 5.7
George Springer 3.8 1.5 5.3
Justin Upton 3.5 1.2 4.7
Justin Smoak 3.7 0.8 4.5
Carlos Correa 3.9 0.2 4.1

Through August 3

Things have already changed considerably. This is what the top of that chart looks like now.

American League MVP Candidate Projections
Name WAR ROS WAR EOS Projection
Mike Trout 5.1 2.6 7.7
Jose Altuve 5.9 1.6 7.5
Aaron Judge 6.0 1.3 7.3
Andrelton Simmons 4.6 1.3 5.9
Mookie Betts 4.2 1.5 5.8
Chris Sale has 7.0 WAR, but the above list only includes position players.

So Trout is currently projected to be the AL position player WAR leader at the end of the season. If he keeps up his current pace and gets close to the the 200 more plate appearances he is projected for, he is going to get above 8 WAR. Trout is currently above a 200 wRC+, a number that hasn’t been reached since Barry Bonds and done by only nine players in non-strike seasons in history. He will actually have to exceed his projections in PAs to qualify for the batting title, as he is currently set to fall eight short. Read the rest of this entry »


Joey Votto and the Changing Strike Zone

Joey Votto hasn’t made a West Coast swing recently so we don’t have original words to annotate here, but he did say some interesting things to Zach Buchanan at The Cincinnati Enquirer this week, interesting particularly because he said that “This has been documented, so this is not anecdotal here,” and that sort of statement is like catnip around here. Let’s provide the documentation.

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The A’s Might Have a Developing Star

Matt Chapman looks like an all-around player. (Photo: Minda Haas Kuhlman)

Over the last few years, the A’s have had a high-end player problem, in that they haven’t had any. Jed Lowrie currently leads the team with +2.3 WAR; by comparison, the Astros have seven players who have already reached that mark, and that does not include their best pitcher, Dallas Keuchel, who spent two months on the DL. The team has developed some decent role players and decent enough everyday players, but they haven’t really had a franchise player since they traded Josh Donaldson to Toronto.

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I am starting to wonder if they’ve finally found a guy who at least has the potential to get to that level in the not too distant future. His name is Matt Chapman.

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How Technology Led Josh Donaldson to Change

CLEVELAND — When I asked Josh Donaldson about being a founding father of the fly-ball revolution recently in the visiting clubhouse at Progressive Field, he re-directed the credit. The creator of the air-ball, upper-cut philosophy was Ted Williams, he noted.

Donaldson knows his history.

Williams, of course, co-authored the book The Science of Hitting. He talked about impacting the lower half of the ball. It seems like that should be required reading for all professional hitters, but I wonder what is the actual percentage of pro hitters who have read the book?

What is interesting to this author is how Donaldson arrived at his philosophy. It wasn’t from watching grainy black-and-white video of Williams. In my conversation with the right-handed slugger, he did not reference having read Williams’ thoughts as being the impetus for his belief changes. No, Donaldson arrived and adopted the #GroundballsSuck concept through what he describes as his “first love”: golf. Read the rest of this entry »


Getting the Tigers a Real Prospect for Justin Verlander

It wasn’t a big surprise when Justin Verlander stayed in Detroit at the July 31st trade deadline, because for Verlander, the 31st wasn’t really a deadline. With $28 million salaries for each of the next two years, he wasn’t in much danger of being claimed on waivers; sure enough, he reportedly went unclaimed last week, and is again free to be traded to any team in baseball. And now that prospective buyers don’t have the distraction of other possible options, it might actually be easier for the Tigers to trade Verlander this month than it was in July.

Of course, easier doesn’t mean easy. As Jeff noted a month ago, there appears to be something of a gap between how the Tigers see Verlander and how the rest of the league sees him. Detroit seemingly is shopping him as if he’s still the ace he pitched like last season, not the average-ish starter he’s pitched like this season. And Jeff’s piece laid out why that isn’t a totally unreasonable position.

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