Andrew McCutchen’s time as a Pirate was always likely to end in one of two ways: either by way of trade or departure as a free agent. Several years ago, a significant portion of the fan base — and perhaps a significant portion of the clubhouse — would have liked to have seen another contract extension for the 2013 NL MVP, but that was always unlikely. The club had little interest in guaranteeing a player entering his 30s a nine-figure contact, and McCutchen seemed uninterested in taking another below-market deal.

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Over the last three years, Max Scherzer has kicked it up a notch, progressing from simply a very good pitcher to one of the best three in the major leagues. He attributes some of that success to an improved curveball, a pitch that has served to complement his already devastating slider. Perhaps it’s because of his curveball’s effectiveness that he’s not afraid to continue tinkering. Perhaps the introduction of a new, third breaking pitch will lead to another leap forward, if that’s even possible.

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Around the end of last September, Clayton Kershaw began an experiment. A few times a game, seemingly at random, Kershaw would drop down and deliver a pitch from more of a sidearm slot. He took the experiment with him into the playoffs, and although that seems like it would’ve been ballsy, one of the explanations given was that Kershaw used to pitch from that slot in high school, so it wasn’t completely unfamiliar. It was clear immediately that the experiment was interesting. It was less clear whether it was particularly successful. Kershaw had a total of 25 pitches tracked from his lower slot, and I wrote about them in March.

One of the things about Kershaw is he doesn’t say much. So he didn’t offer much analysis of his own little quirk. We couldn’t be sure, therefore, whether Kershaw would resume dropping his arm in 2017. He didn’t throw any pitches like that in his first start. He didn’t throw any pitches like that in his second start. He didn’t throw any pitches like that in his first eight starts. It certainly looked like the experiment was dead. So it goes. If nothing else, at least he was still Clayton Kershaw.

Then start number nine came along. It’s back. For 21 pitches in the last four games, it’s been back. And Kershaw has added a new twist to his new twist.

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At this time last year, Luis Severino had just finished up his second minor-league start of the season. It was only his second minor-league start of the season because he had started the season in the majors. But seven starts were all Yankees manager Joe Girardi needed to see before he and the Yankees organization sent Severino packing, first for a start at High-A and then to Triple-A. On June 3, 2016, he allowed three runs in 3.2 innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Yesterday, a year and a day later, he allowed two runs in seven innings against the Blue Jays. A year after his demotion, Severino is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Let’s start with his demotion. In his first seven starts last season, Severino threw 35 innings. He allowed 30 runs, 29 earned, for a 7.46 ERA. Yuck. His 5.52 FIP also was unsightly, but showed that his 27 strikeouts against 10 walks painted a somewhat brighter picture. But then there was his 3.98 xFIP, a more or less league average mark. The discrepancy is the result of the eight homers allowed by the Dominican Republic native — six in Yankee Stadium, and two in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. That’s quite a bit for 35 innings pitched. It works out to a 2.09 every nine innings, a mark that has only been achieved twice by qualified pitchers in major-league history — Sid Fernandez in 1994 (2.11) and Jose Lima in 2000 (2.20). So, it stood to reason that Severino wouldn’t keep allowing homers at such a high rate. Or, you could make the argument that only two pitchers had allowed homers at such a rate because usually, when a pitcher is doing that, he’s unlikely to compile enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Because he’d probably get sent to the minors. Which Severino did.

Severino would work diligently in the minors. After the aforementioned June 3 outing, he would make nine starts. In eight of them, he allowed three runs or less. In the final of those nine starts, he struck out 11 in six innings and got himself a ticket back to the Show. He would make two starts, one in Boston and one versus Tampa, and the results were a carbon copy of his previous major-league work: eight innings pitched, 15 hits allowed, 12 runs allowed, 10 strikeouts, one walk, two homers. He was doing his job in terms of walks and strikeouts, but too many batted balls were finding green pasture or outfield bleacher. At this point, Girardi could be forgiven for not sticking with Severino. And he didn’t. Severino went right back to the minors and didn’t come back up until rosters expanded. When he did, he was a reliever, until the end of the season, when he made a couple of nondescript, short starts.

For the 2016 season as a whole, Severino made only 11 starts. He only reached the six-inning mark in three of them, and only one of those three cleared the bar for a quality start. Fast forward to this season, and Severino has already reached the 11-start threshold. He’s gone at least six innings in seven of them, and all seven have been of the quality-start variety. That is underselling the difference in his seasons.

Last season, Severino finished with a 102 FIP- and 0.6 WAR. This year, he’s posted a 71 FIP- and 1.7 WAR. Last year, of the 273 pitchers who pitched at least 60 innings, Severino’s 0.6 WAR ranked 186th. This year, his 1.7 WAR ranks 12th, and seventh in the American League. That’s pretty good, if you weren’t aware.

Luis Severino has widened the velocity differentials on both his changeup and slider. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

So, how did we get here? Well, various ways. A little here, a little there. One thing that’s interesting is that Severino’s success isn’t a product of him having suddenly learned how to stop fly balls from becoming home runs. For the entire 2016 season, Severino’s home run rate on fly balls (HR/FB) was 16.4%; this season it’s 16.3%, which is, you know, the same. It’s 27th highest among qualified starters. And yet, he has improved significantly, which is impressive.

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Manny Acta was managing the Cleveland Indians when I first interviewed him, in 2010. He’s now the third base coach for the Seattle Mariners, and while many things change over the course of seven years, others will stay the same. Acta continues to embrace analytics as much as anyone who wears a baseball uniform to work.

When the Mariners visited Fenway Park last week, I asked Acta what he’s been observing as the club hopscotches across the league.

“Everybody has the same access to all the analytics,” answered Acta. “It’s about who has the courage to actually use it to their advantage, and to push the envelope. Some teams are still a little bit more old-school than others. You can notice the difference when teams come through town. Some are more aggressive with shifting, and some do different things against different players. Everybody in the league knows which teams are the more proactive with how they use analytics.”

Playing devil’s advocate, I proposed that in some cases it may not be a lack of courage, but rather a belief that traditional strategies are more sound. His response suggested that while that may be true, it isn’t particularly smart. Read the rest of this entry »

Brock Burke is on a roll. The 20-year-old southpaw has made nine starts for the Bowling Green Hot Rods, and he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of them. His record is an unblemished 5-0, and his ERA is a sparkling 1.23. He’s been one of the most-dominant under-the-radar pitchers in the minors. Of the 52 A-ball pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched this season, his ERA ranks third.

Burke’s fast start for Tampa Bay’s Low-A affiliate has been partially fueled by Driveline Baseball.

“I came down early and did a weighted-ball camp,” explained Burke, whom the Rays took in the third round of the 2014 draft out of a Denver-area high school. “It was mostly a Driveline program. Our pitching coordinator, Dewey Robinson, invited a bunch of us — it was voluntary — and it was definitely beneficial. It got me in better body shape, which has helped my accuracy and my velo.”

Midwest League hitters have seen firm fastballs from the lefty, but it’s not as though he suddenly morphed into a flamethrower. What’s changed is that his velocity is no longer temperamental. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies have lost five of their last eight games, a stretch that began last Thursday with a walk-off, extra-inning loss in Philadelphia. They’ve also lost sole possession of first place in the process, although they retained a share of it entering play following yesterday’s win. Still, things looked a lot better just a week ago. Overall, the team’s 83 wRC+ ranks 27th in the majors. They rank the same lowly 27th even when pitcher hitting is removed from the equation. Clearly, reinforcements are needed, right? Well, yes. But here’s the thing: they’re coming from inside the organization.

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After the White Sox traded Chris Sale, rumors flew that Jose Quintana would be on the move soon, as well. Quintana has been quite good for Chicago, but the club had no designs on contending in 2017. With four more years of control at under $40 million, Quintana was a valuable trade chip. The White Sox were right to expect a return for Quintana that rivaled their hauls for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. Those demands weren’t met, however, and the White Sox entered the season with Quintana as their ace.

Looking at Quintana’s line so far this season — he has a 5.60 ERA and 4.28 FIP — it’s hard to imagine that his current trade value remains as high as it was this offseason. The main problem has been home runs. Let’s take a closer look.

First, some good news: Quintana has actually increased his strikeout rate relative to previous seasons. That mark stands at to 23.0% currently, higher than his career average of 20.1% and last year’s 21.6%. His walks have gone up, too, though: up to 8.6% from his career average and last year’s average around 6%. A 40% increase in walks is definitely something to note, but more alarming is Quintana’s home-run rate. Here are Quintana’s relevant home-run statistics during his career:

Quintana has been pitching in a tough pitcher’s park for the duration of his career, so the regularity with which he’s suppressed home runs would appear to be a bit of a skill at this point. That said, there’s definitely been a departure this season from his established levels. His walks seem to indicate he’s not quite the pitcher he has been, but a lot of other indicators check out. His velocity seems decent enough. He’s getting first-pitch strikes. He’s pitching in the zone roughly the same amount and swings in and out of the zone don’t seem overly alarming. The home runs are only a big deal to the extent they have a tangible effect on Quintana’s stat line.

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This is Michael Lortz’ first piece as part of his June residency at FanGraphs. Lortz covers the Tampa Bay baseball market for the appropriately named Tampa Bay Baseball Market and has previously published work in the Community pages, as well. You can find him on Twitter, as well.

By most accounts, Tampa Bay is a growing region. There is job growth, revenue growth, housing growth, and billions in development happening throughout both Tampa and St. Petersburg. But one number that is not growing, despite an increase in expendable income, is attendance at Tropicana Field.

Fortunately, the main reasons why the Rays continue to struggle at the gate have become somewhat well known. Most knowledgeable Tampa Bay residents and baseball fans know Tropicana Field is too far from the population center and the gridlock too tangled for enough fans to see the Rays on a daily basis. This media appears to have become aware of these particular challenges: we’ve seen fewer national editorials of late blaming the Rays’ fanbase for lack of attendance. There’s still the occasional tweet, but published commentary criticizing Tampa Bay sports fans for lack of Rays attendance is rare.

Regardless of how often the problem is covered, there aren’t many articles offering solutions. That is a problem. From the outsider’s perspective, it seems the Rays are running out of ideas to get people to the ballpark. While they can only put so much lipstick on the pig that is Tropicana Field, they’ve altered prices, involved their people in the community, and offered a smorgasbord of various promotions with varying results.

The lack of attendance is putting the Rays in a bind: without revenue from attendance and with lower-than-average broadcast revenue, they have to rely on revenue sharing to stay competitive in one of the more affluent divisions in baseball. And there’s skepticism from baseball owners and front-office personnel throughout the sport as to whether Tampa Bay can ever be a successful major-league market — despite the fact that four franchises spring train in Tampa Bay, two others train just over an hour away, and four minor-league teams call the region home.

At my website, I’ve covered Rays attendance since 2007, the last year the Rays had the Devil in their name. Over the history of the franchise (excluding the inaugural season), there have been four different eras of Rays attendance.

• 1999-2007: The Phantom Ownership (avg 1.3 million)
• 2008-2010: A New Fandom (avg 1.8 million)
• 2011-2013: Indifference Strikes Back (avg 1.5 million)
• 2014-Present: Return of the Empty Seats (avg 1.3 million)

As you can see, even with more recognition and more active ownership, the Rays now draw as many people to Tropicana Field as they did during the Dewon Brazelton years. That’s not a good thing.

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Joey Votto might have the most discerning eye in all of baseball, and this season he’s somehow made his own approach something even closer to perfect. Votto has swung at just 19% of pitches out of the strike zone, a rate which counts as especially low. At the same time, Votto has swung at 70% of pitches in the strike zone, a rate which counts as unusually high. When running discipline analysis, I like to compare those two rates. Votto has a swing-rate difference of 51 percentage points. It’s enormous. Joey Votto swings mostly at strikes.

Chris Tillman has started five games since coming off the disabled list, and he’s thrown 452 pitches. When he’s thrown a pitch out of the zone, he’s gotten a swing 24% of the time. When he’s thrown a pitch in the zone, he’s gotten a swing 75% of the time. Tillman, therefore, is running a swing-rate difference of 51 percentage points. Hitters who’ve faced Chris Tillman to this point in 2017 have, on average, been about as disciplined as Joey Votto.

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