With free agency more or less in the books and all arbitration cases having been decided, the projected payrolls for Major League Baseball teams are becoming more clear. A few moves could occur before the start of the season — maybe some contract extensions, maybe some trades — but given the information we have, we can come pretty close to projecting Opening Day payrolls for all 30 teams.

Overall, spending has increased moderately since last season. A year ago, the average Opening Day payroll was right around $128 million, which itself represented a very small increase over 2015 despite big spending in free agency. This year, the average payroll is up to $133 million, a 4% increase despite uncertainty with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and a weak free-agent class.

In what follows, I’ll consider the league’s payrolls in a few different ways. Salary information has been collected from Cot’s Contracts, while the equivalent of the MLB-minimum salary has been attached to open roster spots, bringing each team to 25 players. Money for players not on a club’s roster roster — as in the case of the Reds, for example, who are paying $13 million for Brandon Phillips to play in the Atlanta suburbs — is included in the payroll for the team actually paying the money.

To nobody’s surprise, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest payroll in baseball.

The Dodgers come in at around $235 million, which is roughly $40 million clear of the second-place Detroit Tigers. Even after accounting for the competitive-balance tax, it appears as though the Dodgers are still looking at a reduction of more than $30 million from last season. Even if they need to cut payroll more, the result should hardly be debilitating for the health of the team.

The tax amount for this season is $195 million. When you account for the $15 million or so that gets added for benefits and the rest of the 40-man roster, it would appear that the Tigers and Yankees will pay between $5 million and $10 million, the Giants will be right on the borderline, and the Red Sox might actually be under, as Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo don’t count for tax purposes.

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Last year, only one team improved their exit velocity in the second half as much as the Brewers did, when they went from 17th in the league to fifth. That might not surprise you, because you’ve read often about the young power duo on that team — Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana — and those two were at their healthiest and most dynamic in the second half. And yet the team was 20th in park- and league-adjusted weighted run creation during that same period. There’s always something else that requires attention, both players agreed in camp this week.

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Zack Greinke made his second start in spring training yesterday, and it did not go well. Facing off against Team Mexico, he allowed six hits in 2 2/3 innings, including a number of balls that were crushed by a line-up of guys who won’t play in the big leagues this year. Of the 12 batted balls that Greinke allowed that were tracked by StatCast, four of them were hit at least 100 mph. This is not really what you want from a guy who got paid like an ace in large part because of his perceived contact management skills.

But while the exit velocity numbers showed that Greinke was getting squared up regularly, the pitch velocity numbers were the most concerning elements of the day. Statcast didn’t record a single pitch even at the 90 mph threshold, with Greinke essentially sitting at 89 with his fastball all day. Given that he averaged 92 on his fastball last year, that’s a fairly steep decline, and Greinke even admitted after the game that his stuff isn’t where he wants it.

“It’s still early,” Greinke said. “It is what it is. It’s still early and it’s not like some crazy, crazy thing. But it’s not ideal, either.”

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For Lucas Giolito, KISS doesn’t mean Keep It Simple Stupid. Given his intellectual curiosity — picking Max Scherzer’s brain didn’t hurt — the acronym more aptly equates to Keep It Simple Smart.

Giolito is now in the White Sox organization, having been acquired by Chicago from Washington in December’s Adam Eaton mini-blockbuster. Blessed with a big arm and a made-for-movies persona, the 6-foot-6 righty projects as a front-line starter, but only if he can keep his delivery in sync. That was an issue in last year’s six-game cameo with the Nationals, when he allowed 39 baserunners in 21.1 innings.

The 22-year-old former first-round pick believes that striking the right balance is the secret to future success. Being studious and cerebral comes naturally to Giolito, but at the same time, he understands that simplicity is a pitcher’s friend.

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Giolito on how analytics impact his thought process: “It’s tough, because they make it a little more complicated, and when I’m pitching I like to make it super simple. But things like spin rate and extension play a role in, ‘How good is your stuff?’ What I especially looked at last year was… usually, I’m a big extension guy. On my fastball, I’ll get seven-foot-whatever.

“I was looking at some numbers, and saw that I was down to six-foot-eight, six-nine, six-whatever. That’s not what I should be doing. Sure enough, video showed that I was flying open and yanking everything. So that stuff can be very helpful. Same thing with spin rate. Is the ball coming out of your hand at its best right now? It used to just be a feel thing, and now you can actually look at the numbers to back it up.

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Brett Lawrie isn’t quite ready to sign with a club, according to a report by Jim Bowden from Wednesday afternoon. Lawrie is still working through a soft-tissue, lower-body issue. Teams like the Blue Jays, Mets, Rays and Royals reportedly have some level of interest in Lawrie after he was released by the White Sox.

What kind of role Lawrie can expect to land is unclear. And what we can expect from a player who was once one of the more exciting prospects in the game — who was once selected 15th overall in an ESPN franchise player draft in 2012 — a player whom Bowden himself once predicted would become a batting champion, is uncertain.

After he burst on to the scene with a .293/.373/.580 slash line in a 43-game span as a rookie, Lawrie averaged two wins per season from 2012 to -14. But in what was supposed to represent the beginning of his prime years in 2015 and 2016 — i.e. his age-25 and -26 seasons — Lawrie’s performance continued to decline. Most notably, what was once a strength, his bat-to-ball skills, began to erode.

Perhaps we can pinpoint the beginning of the issue. It’s difficult to have a tougher day than Lawrie endured on April 7, 2015, for the A’s against the Rangers. Over the course of four plate appearances, all of which ended in a strikeout, Lawrie saw 12 pitches: eight sliders, three curveballs, and just one fastball. For posterity, the following footage documents those 11 breaking pitches.

His first at-bat versus Colby Lewis:

His second at-bat versus Lewis:

In the seventh, against Keone Kela:

And in the ninth, to end the game, against Neftali Feliz:

That was not the look of a player who appeared comfortable. Lawrie takes for called strikes almost all the breaking pitches in the zone. He swings, on the other hand, at all the pitches that fall out of it. He also appears to be anxious or over-hyped before triggering his swing. He’s a high-energy player. Perhaps, too high-energy.

It was just one game. But it was a most unusual performance. And it was that second game of his 2015 season that perhaps created a template for other teams to follow, which explains why Lawrie’s ability to make contact – once one of his strongest skills – has eroded as teams have attacked him with more breaking stuff each of the last two years.

Teams have increased their curveball and slider usage against Lawrie. Only 6.8% of pitches Lawrie faced in 2014 were curveballs. Last season, that rate had nearly doubled, to a career-high 11.3%. In 2014, 16.8% of pitches Lawrie saw were sliders. That jumped to a career-high 22.4% in 2015, and 19.2% last season.

Correspondingly, Lawrie’s swinging-strike rate has jumped, from 8.8% in 2014 to 11.9% in 2015 and to a career-high 13.2% last season. His contact rate with pitches in the zone has declined each year from a career-best 90.5% in 2012 with the Blue Jays, to a pedestrian 80.9% mark last season.

The book appears to be out on Lawrie, as seen in this Brooks Baseball chart:

What’s troubling about Lawrie’s career trend is that often, when we think of a hitter losing contact ability, we think — or hope, for his sake — that there ought to be a corresponding improvement in power. This is especially true for a player in his 20s. But not only has Lawrie seen his ability to make contact erode, his isolated slugging has declined from its 2014 level.

I asked Sean Dolinar for help in researching hitters who have had two-year contract trends like Lawrie, combined with loss of power. Among the sample that includes all qualified hitters since 1950, Lawrie has the ninth-greatest increase in strikeout rate.

Of the top-12 players here, Jones produced four total wins over the next four seasons, the final four of his career. Morneau remains unsigned this spring. Napoli’s struggles continued into 2015, though he enjoyed a 34-homer season last year on a one-year deal with Cleveland. McGwire’s final season was in 2001. Kubel last played in the majors in 2014.

Of course, all of them were all over 30.

Some good news for Lawrie: Clark rebounded to post five consecutive seasons of wRC+ 129 or better.

As for the 30-and-under crowd, Langerhans never again received more than 139 plate appearances in a season. Weis was a reserve middle infielder who finished with a 61 wRC+ for his career. Kemp received just 59 more plate appearances in the majors. Johnson is one modest success story: he went on to post four seasons of wRC+s 108 over his career.

Two other significant success stories that suffered similar contact collapses include Dave Henderson, who rebounded at age 29 and posted three 125 wRC+ seasons through age 32, and Mike Stanley, who improved in his age-30 season and produced seven straight seasons of 117 wRC+ or better. But they did not suffer isolated slugging losses.

Lawrie’s No. 1 PECOTA comp is Ryne Sandberg who, after a eight- and six-win seasons early in his career, went through an age 26-27 lull, before entering a five-year peak.

So there’s some hope mixed in with some concern.

In examining Baseball Reference’s top similarity scores for batters comparable to Lawrie through age 26, there are some troubling comps, like that of the most similar hitter, Gene Freese, who enjoyed only one more season (1961) with a starting job in the majors. Another, Russ Davis, produced a 92 wRC+ for his career and 0.0 WAR over over 612 career games.

Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner are two interesting names, appearing as the No. 5 and No. 6 most similar batters to Lawrie, though Turner needed to reinvent his swing to become a star. And perhaps Lawrie needs to make a significant swing adjustment to cut down on his pre-swing movement. The most encouraging name on the list of most similar batters through age 26 is Edwin Encarnacion, who posted a .790 OPS and 102 OPS+ with the Reds from 2005 to -09 and who has since recorded a .850 OPS, 124 OPS+, earning three All-Star invites in the process.

Beyond the bat, Lawrie offers defensive versatility: he’s been an above-average defender for his career (32 defensive runs saved) at third base and plays an acceptable second base. But it’s the bat that will make or break his career. History shows of those players who have endured a similar erosion of contact skills without a gain in power many never recover, though some do. There are even some stars in the group. While Lawrie’s collapse is a bit unusual, there are likely multiple career trajectories he could follow dependent upon health, adjustments and opportunity.

I’d like to believe this guy still exists:

But that walkoff homer from his rookie year is beginning to seem like a long time ago. While there’s evidence of similar players turning around their careers, Lawrie must show the league he has the ability to punch back.

Home runs were everywhere last season! You might have heard. Conveniently, just as baseball was beginning to express concern that hitters didn’t have enough of a chance, balls started leaving the ballparks in record number. This was, naturally, examined over and over. One popular explanation is that baseball arranged to have the actual ball manufactured differently. A related and popular explanation is that the ball was manufactured differently kind of by accident. And then there’s the theory that hitters simply tried to hit more homers. You can see how that could lead to more homers.

That last theory gets tied into all the various swing-changers we’ve seen over the past few years. What if there are just more hitters than ever trying to hit the ball both hard and in the air? Anecdotally, it passes the smell test, and I should say I love being able to follow a relevant Travis Sawchik post. Travis just spoke with J.D. Martinez, one of the more well-known swing-changers. Martinez tries to hit the ball in the air every single time, which he didn’t used to do. Martinez seems to hold ground balls in contempt. This is, in short, the story of how Martinez turned around his own big-league career.

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We still talk about the Tigers as a team headed off a cliff, and it’s no mystery why. The reasons are the same as they’ve ever been, and the longer-term outlook remains unpleasant. Yet the team might not get enough credit for what it was able to do in the middle of a down 2015. Yoenis Cespedes was turned into Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer. And David Price was turned into breakout candidate Daniel Norris and wild but hard-throwing Jairo Labourt. Oh, and Matt Boyd was a part of that, too.

Boyd was intriguing to me at the time, just because of the success he’d had at the highest levels of the minors. He was written about as a low-upside type, yet he still seemed like a major-league starter. Granted, as a major-league starter in 2015, Boyd nearly allowed a run per inning. That’s terrible! Last year’s version settled down. Boyd kept his ERA in the mid-4s, and right now he’s in there for a rotation spot.

For my taste, Boyd continues to intrigue. I’ll explain why, because that’s what we do here, and I want to say right now that Boyd, as is, isn’t anything special. But he’s close. Fulmer and Norris get the bulk of the attention, but Boyd could be ready to emerge. He has one step left to take.

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Editor’s Note: the following post contains spicy language.

J.D. Martinez had just concluded a chat with a Tigers beat reporter when I approached him Monday afternoon. I sensed him preparing to escape my forthcoming interview request in the Joker Marchant Stadium clubhouse as I walked in his direction. He’d just risen from the cushioned chair in front of his locker and picked up a cardboard box of personal effects as I introduced myself. His body language wasn’t suggestive of much interest in engaging in conversation with me and, to be fair, I was a stranger. We had never spoken. He had just finished playing six innings of an exhibition game and was presumably was looking forward to the rest of the day.

But then I explained why I was interested in speaking with him. He rested the box on a laundry cart, freed his hands, seemed to warm to the idea (or possibly not), and opened up.

I wanted to ask Martinez whether baseball is on the cusp of a fly-ball revolution, whether we’re about to see the sort of approach already adopted by Martinez, Josh Donaldson and Justin Turner — all of whom have experienced great personal success — become more widely adopted and accepted in the majors. Jeff Sullivan and I have written quite a bit about the potential fly-ball revolution in recent weeks as you can read here, here, here and here. But Monday offered a chance to get a key perspective from an early adopter and perhaps a significant influencer.

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If nothing else, Team Israel looked like a nice little story for the World Baseball Classic. It was their first time qualifying for the event, but they lacked the name recognition on their roster to be considered a serious threat. Being thrown into a pool with Chinese Taipei, the Netherlands, and South Korea — teams that feature players from high-level professional leagues — felt nearly insurmountable. But here we are, with Israel already having qualified for the next round following wins over Korea and Taipei. Their showdown tonight with the Dutch team’s loaded infield may be something of a reality check. Nevertheless, Team Israel’s success shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re legit.

There isn’t a prototypical star on Israel’s roster. They weren’t able to bring in a top-tier Jewish talent like Ryan Braun. But what Team Israel does boast is the benefit of having more than a few big-league players in the lineup — and some of the best players in the minors, as well. Ike Davis isn’t hitting 30 homers in the big leagues anymore, but he’s still better than most of the professional players in the world. Cody Decker, Nate Freiman, Sam Fuld, Ty Kelly, Ryan Lavarnway, Jason Marquis, and Josh Zeid are better than most of the professional players in the world. They’ve reached higher highs than most of their competition.

It’s important to remember this one, all-important thing: baseball is hard. Being good enough to play in the leagues in Korea and Taipei is really hard. Being good enough to get even a single plate appearance in Major League Baseball is probably even harder. The teams from Korea and Taipei are largely All-Star teams, the best of the best of highly competitive leagues. But they’re not fully stocked, either.

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The Orioles, to put it bluntly, haven’t had the best of luck at developing pitching. (They haven’t been particularly successful with acquiring it, either, but that’s another matter for the moment.) Starting pitchers who both (a) have been signed and developed by Baltimore and (b) have also thrown at least 50 innings since 2011 have combined for an underwhelming 10.7 WAR.

Dylan Bundy was supposed to be the crown jewel of Baltimore’s renaissance. He was, at one point, considered to be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. The idea was, he supposed to arrive in Baltimore and serve as the club’s ace. It hasn’t happened yet. Bundy missed time with Tommy John surgery and other injuries. He made his return last year, making the Opening Day roster, in part, because he’d exhausted his option years after signing a big league deal when he was drafted. He pitched out of the bullpen and then moved to the rotation.

His first full season wasn’t a smashing success. Though he showed flashes of brilliance, his 4.70 FIP left a lot to be desired. When he was on, though, he was on.

 

Bundy can strike guys out, but his 8.53 K/9 doesn’t scream ace. We know that strikeouts aren’t the only means to effectiveness, though. Consider, for example, the work of Danny Duffy before Duffy morphed into a frontline starter last year. Let’s compare some of Bundy’s numbers from last season to the 2015 version of Duffy. The numbers aren’t exactly the same but possess many underlying signs of life.

This isn’t an exact science, of course, and shouldn’t be taken as gospel. As Tony Blengino recently noted in a piece about contact management, though, Bundy is exceptional at generating pop ups, which are high-probability outs, and an effective way to suppress BABIP. Bundy has also displayed a knack for limiting exit velocity on his batted balls. Duffy featured a similar profile and converted that success into a breakout in 2016. Bundy’s already striking batters out at a higher rate than the 2015 iteration of Duffy. If Bundy can keep inducing pop ups at his current rate, all while limiting damage in other ways, he could be a special pitcher this year.

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