I don’t see any reason to turn this into a full-length post, when something very short should suffice. You know that not every team in baseball has an identically-difficult schedule. I mean, even most simply, the Padres have to play against the Dodgers, but the Dodgers never have to play against the Dodgers, which gives them an advantage. There are other advantages and disadvantages, for other reasons. Things are unbalanced. You know how it works.

Differences between schedules are frequently tough to notice, and it’s easy to downplay the significance. A team’s schedule will never be the major factor behind said team making or missing the playoffs. That doesn’t make it irrelevant, though, especially now, with higher-leverage baseball games left to be played. Who’s looking at the toughest schedules the rest of the way? Who’s looking at the easiest? I can give you some very simple estimates. I’m following the same method as always.

This is our projected standings page. That includes a projected winning percentage, that does not factor in opponents. This is our playoff odds page. That includes a projected winning percentage, that does factor in opponents. In other words, the latter projection is schedule adjusted, so to get an idea about schedule strength, you can just subtract the former winning percentage from the latter, and see what you have.

That’s what I’ve done below, splitting apart the American and National Leagues. These are expressed as differences in winning percentage, where a positive number implies an easier schedule, and a negative number implies a more difficult one. Note that this is based entirely on the team projections, so if you have a particular disagreement with certain projections, that’ll make a difference here. Like, the Brewers are projected to play a lot worse than the Cubs from here on out. If you think that’s not how it’s going to go, then, well, take these with a grain of salt. I just want to show you what our numbers say, at this moment in time. Don’t flame the messenger.

Here’s the AL picture:

Good news for the Indians! Worse news for the White Sox. But the White Sox probably don’t care, so, let’s just move one over, and say, worse news for the Orioles. And for the Yankees, and for the Red Sox, and for the…the AL East is a tough division. Here’s the NL picture:

I don’t think the Marlins are going to play themselves into the race, but at least they have one thing working for them. The Diamondbacks apparently don’t, so it’s good for them they have such a massive lead. I’m not going to write anything else. Anything left, I leave to you.

Mike Trout was injured on May 28. Through to that point, he’d been worth a league-leading 3.4 WAR, and he was sitting on a career-best 208 wRC+. Partial seasons are never the same as complete seasons, because complete seasons give every player equal opportunity to get hot or get cold, but Trout, at least then, was on course for the best big-league season of his life. The best big-league season of his life! For Mike Trout!

The injury was devastating, for everyone. Everyone, I suppose, but the Angels’ rivals. The Angels suddenly had to deal with the freak long-term absence of the best player in the world. Fans had to deal with the same. Personally, I’ve had fewer things to write about. It’s been about a month and a half of not writing about Mike Trout, and I don’t like that. Nobody likes that. We all need more Trout in our lives.

We’re going to get it again. On Sunday, Trout played his final minor-league rehab game, walking three times while also knocking a triple. Trout says he feels ready, and the medical team is supportive, and so Trout will return to the bigs on the other side of the All-Star break. We made it, everybody. We made it several weeks without Mike Trout, and we’re all right, and even the Angels are all right, too. There’s light at the end of this tunnel, and we are all so nearly there.

As such, to mark the imminent occasion, I want to show you a table and ask you a question. This table includes Angels team stats. Everything’s split into two groups, corresponding to two periods of time. One of the periods of time shows the Angels through May 28. The other shows the Angels since May 29. I want you to examine this table for however long you need, and then respond to the following poll. Thank you!

That’s run differential per game, by the way. And, later, stolen bases per game. Feeling good? Here you go. Have a great afternoon and evening.

If I know you, you’ve been around long enough to have seen a number of these. There isn’t much in the way of variation. Over a large enough timescale, the worst called ball will come on a pitch thrown in the vicinity of the middle of the strike zone. There’s no alternative. Those are the clearest, most obvious strikes, so when they’re not strikes, they’re lousy called balls. They all look more or less alike in that regard. So exploration is just about filling in the details. When did this particular bad call happen? Who was the umpire who made the actual call? Which pitcher threw the pitch? Which catcher caught — or didn’t catch — the pitch? What was the situation at the time? Did the call end up mattering much?

I’ve written the same post a whole bunch of times. I’ve done the same research, to end up with the same kind of play. Just about always, the call happens because the catcher sets up somewhere, and then the pitcher badly misses. I usually make some reference to how it’s evidence that framing does matter. Catchers struggle to catch pitches headed for surprising locations. You can “earn” a ball, even when you throw a pitch down the pipe.

This is another play that wasn’t very clean. We’re going back to June 18, in the first inning of a game between the Rangers and the Mariners. Danny Valencia got ahead in the count 1-and-0 against Yu Darvish, because Darvish and catcher Robinson Chirinos failed to properly execute. But this time, there’s a twist. This isn’t the same post as always.

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Over the weekend, the Twins called up speedy center fielder Zach Granite from Triple-A. Granite is a KATOH darling who made my preseason 2017 All-KATOH Team and has been featured regularly on the Fringe Five. Granite’s a stats-over-scouts guy through and through.

I first became aware of Granite around this time last year, when he ranked very highly on KATOH’s midseason top-100 list. At the time, there was little to his profile aside from elite contact and speed. He stole an outrageous 56 bases and played elite defense in center, while also running a strikeout rate in the single-digits. Despite his extreme contact, he only managed to hit a respectable-but-punchless .295/.347/.382.

He’s ramped up his hitting this year. In 59 games at the Triple-A level, he slashed .360/.412/.492, including a .446/.503/.619 tear over his last 36 games. His stolen bases and single-digit strikeout rate remain, but he appears to be driving the ball a bit more than he did in the past. His ISO has spiked to a not-quite-punchless .131, while his BABIP has jumped to .394. Twenty-one extra-base hits in 59 games is respectable, even if that total has been aided by his speed.

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After this past offseason’s lack of oomph, the winter between the 2013 and 2014 seasons feels like a different time. In the span of two months, Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, and Masahiro Tanaka signed $150 million-plus contracts. It’s not the last time that’s happened: the 2015-16 offseason featured the same number of deals — to Chris Davis, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, and David Price — above the $150 million threshold. But there’s enough distance between that earlier offseason and now that it’s possible to review the performances of the relevant players and reconsider the years ahead for them. And as a competitive Yankees club prepares for the second half of the season, it’s worth wondering what will become of former star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

When Ellsbury first signed his deal, Dave Cameron examined (not for the first time) how well fast outfielders with good defense tend to age and noted that it would be dangerous to lump Ellsbury in with Carl Crawford. This was a fair and calm assessment of Ellsbury’s value. He noted that Ellsbury was projected to be a four-win player in 2014, and that over the life of his seven-year deal, Ellsbury was projected to be worth 17.5 WAR. The first part absolutely came true — Ellsbury tallied 4.1 WAR in 2014, his first with the Yankees. The latter projection, however, isn’t working out quite so well.

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Four years ago, Manny Margot was 18 years old and playing against older competition in short-season ball. He was more than holding his own. Equal parts precocious and promising, he was one of the highest-ceiling prospects in the Red Sox system. Intrigued by the parallels, I wrote an article titled Manuel Margot: Boston’s Next Bogaerts?

That never came to fruition. Following the 2015 season, Margot was sent to the Padres as part of the package that delivered Craig Kimbrel to the AL East. The change of scenery has been to his liking. One year removed from a stellar season in Triple-A, the native of San Cristobal, Dominican Republic is now San Diego’s starting centerfielder.

While some things have changed, others remain the same. In 2013, Margot told me the game is “all enthusiasm” for him, and that he “never wants to leave this dream.” He echoed those thoughts when I caught up to him earlier this week.

“You always have to play happy,” Margot told me with the help of Padres translator (and Baseball Operations assistant) David Longley. “That doesn’t change as you go through baseball. You’re going to go through some bad streaks, but you put on a good face and those bad times are going to get better. Always play happy.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a playoff team. They probably aren’t a division-winning team, with the Los Angeles Dodgers surging ahead, but sitting roughly 10 games clear in the current Wild Card standings — or around six if you believe the Chicago Cubs will overtake the Milwaukee Brewers at some point — the team has about a 90% shot to make the playoffs. Given their place in the standings, it’s probably fair to consider the Diamondbacks a good team.

The Diamondbacks have also seen three different general managers over the last four seasons. They’ve certainly lacked continuity, but the muddled visions of three front offices have brought them here. Doling out credit and blame to one person or even two or three is a difficult task when we are talking about the construction of a baseball team. In any organization, myriad personnel play a huge part in acquiring players. Once those players are acquired, many more people play a role in developing them to put the best collection of talent on the field.

With that out of the way, let’s focus today on the acquisition portion of the equation and divide those acquisitions into three eras: pre-Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart, La Russa and Stewart, and Mike Hazen. But before we do that, let’s just take a moment to establish that the Diamondbacks are, in fact, good. Six weeks ago, Dave Cameron said it was time to take the Diamondbacks seriously. Since that time, the team has continued to win, improving its position with regard to securing a place in the postseason.

In his piece, Cameron noted that a number of hitters on the Diamondbacks roster were playing a bit over their heads and we could expect some regression. Several Diamondbacks pitchers have pitched well above projections from earlier this season — in particular, Zack Godley, Zack Greinke, and Taijuan Walker, with Robbie Ray’s solid pitching only a bit above expectations.

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If you don’t follow the Padres, this might be the first time you’ve heard of Phil Maton. For that reason, we’ll start with the pronunciation of his name — it’s “May-tawn” — and the fact that he’s a 24-year-old right-hander whom San Diego drafted 597th overall in 2015 out of Louisiana Tech. Since being called up from Triple-A last month, he’s made 12 relief appearances, 11 of which have been scoreless.

And then there’s his calling card. Over 10.1 big-league innings, Maton’s four-seam spin rate has been 2,446 rpm, which is well above the MLB average of 2,222 rpm. For him, it’s actually lower than usual. According to Padres beat writer Dennis Lin, Maton’s spin rate was 2,572 in the minors last year, which would have ranked second to Matt Bush among big-league pitchers who threw at least 500 four-seam fastballs.

I saw the pitch in action, in Cleveland, on July 5. Facing the Indians, Maton threw 22 fastballs and three sliders while retiring five of the six batters he faced. He fanned three, with all of the strikeouts coming on his four-seam. Per usual, the pitch sat around 93 mph.

I talked to Maton prior to the game. Later, I spoke both with his pitching coach, Darren Balsley, and San Diego’s primary catcher, Austin Hedges. Those conversations centered around Maton’s explosive fastball and his work-in-progress slider. I also touched base with three of the Cleveland batters he faced — Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, and Bradley Zimmer — to get their first impressions of the up-and-coming right-hander.

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Phil Maton: “I didn’t find out about [the spin rate] until I got drafted. When I was in short-season ball, the video guys told me that my spin rate was one of the highest they’d ever seen. At the time, I didn’t really think much of it. I was like, ‘Alright, cool, but I don’t really know how that helps me out.’ As I’ve progressed, I’ve realized that is what allows me to pitch up in the zone. My four-seam carries a little better, carries longer, than the average person’s four-seam.

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Baseball is flush with randomness. Time and time again, we trick ourselves into believing we have a good sense of what’s going to happen next, armed with an ever-growing arsenal of measurements, metrics, and projections. Yet, without fail, baseball constantly finds a way to catch us by surprise. One of those surprises has taken St. Louis by storm the last couple of weeks. First baseman Luke Voit debuted for the Cardinals on June 25th and has proceeded to hit .333/.379/.704 between then and now. He’s currently sporting a 179 wRC+, which as the title suggests, is one of the best in baseball among batters with at least 29 plate appearances.

Of course, 29 plate appearances is too few to tell us much of anything about what Voit will do going forward. Luckily, Voit has a lengthy minor-league track record that can. And now that you’ve fallen for the clickbaity title, you’re stuck reading about it.

While surprising, Voit’s performance didn’t come completely out of nowhere. He was a good hitter in the minors, amassing over 30 homers since the start of 2015. He slashed .322/.406/.561 at Triple-A this year and .297/.372/,477 in 2016 at Double-A. Voit also managed to keep his strikeout rate comfortably below 20%, which allowed him to hit for both average and power.

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I’ve noticed a recurring question in most of my chats. For the past several weeks, a similar query has shown up time and again, and that query is, to paraphrase: “where do the Brewers actually have to be in order to be a deadline buyer?” And I’ve mostly ignored the query, or brushed it aside, because while in one sense it was a worthwhile question, I didn’t think it was going to matter. I assumed the Brewers would fade away. I imagine nearly all of us assumed the Brewers would fade away. No reason for them to change the course of their rebuild.

I can tell you this: there’s still time. Still time for the Brewers to collapse, or regress, or do whatever might be your preferred word for the action. Still time for the Brewers to stop being good. But on Thursday, the Brewers went into Chicago and they throttled the Cubs so badly that Jon Jay was asked to handle the ninth. Importantly, the Brewers added to their lead in the division. No less importantly, the Brewers closed in on the second wild-card slot. The Brewers have played more than half of their games, and they’ve won more than half of the games that they’ve played. The Brewers have indeed positioned themselves to buy.

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