Projecting Cody Bellinger

With Andre Ethier, Logan Forsythe, Franklin Gutierrez, Joc Pederson, Rob Segedin all on the DL — and both Chase Utley and Scott Van Slyke struggling to do much of anything — the Dodgers have called up Cody Bellinger to strengthen their lineup. Bellinger is a powerful first-baseman-turned-outfielder who spent the past few weeks mashing .343/.429/.627 at Triple-A at the tender age of 21. Like most first basemen, Bellinger’s power is his biggest asset. He belted 26 homers between Double- and Triple-A last year and has amassed a remarkable 120 extra-base hits since the start of 2015. He’s already hit five out this year, tying him for third among Triple-A hitters.

There’s much more to Bellinger than his homers, however. He’s also a 45 runner who already has seven steals to his name in 2017 and has played all three outfield positions as recently as last year. That same athleticism earned him a 60/70 fielding grade from Eric Longenhagen over the winter. Clay Davenport’s defensive numbers graded him out as a +8 defender across 78 games at first last year.

The one weakness here is Bellinger’s strikeout rate. He struck out at a grisly 29% clip in his three weeks at Triple-A this year, up from 20% last year. By no means is this a fatal flaw, as Bellinger’s many pluses — his power, speed, walks, defense, and youth — far outweigh this one minus in KATOH’s eyes. But it’s something to monitor, especially since prospects who swing and miss often — as Bellinger does —sometimes get exposed in their first tour of big-league duty. Javier Baez, Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge are a few prominent, high-profile examples.

KATOH’s a huge fan of Bellinger. Both KATOH+, which incorporates his ranking on prospect lists, and the stats-only version pegged him as the No. 9 prospect in baseball heading into the year. Every other outlet ranked him similarly, with none placing him lower than 26th.

To put some faces to Bellinger’s statistical profile, I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Bellinger’s Double-A and Triple-A numbers and every season by a first basenan or outfielder since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Lance Berkman is the name on that list with the most star power, and unlike many of the names the Mahalanobis Machine spits out, that comp feels very reasonable. Like Bellinger, Berkman was an offensive beast thanks to his power and walks, despite a high-ish strikeout rate. Both also ran well enough to steal the occasional base and dabble in center field.

Unfairly optimistic comps aside, Bellinger has a fascinating combination of skills, especially for a 21-year-old. In addition to being one of baseball’s very best offensive prospects, his athleticism enables him to provide value on the field and on the base paths. Given LA’s glut of position players, it’s anyone’s guess how much Bellinger will play this year and what type of impact he’ll have, but all signs point to him being very good in the near future.