No one in baseball this season has thrown the slider more frequently than Padres reliever Luke Gregerson. At 60 percent of his total pitches, Gregerson edges out the Cubs Carlos Marmol, but after that there aren’t any pitchers who have thrown the slider even 50 percent of the time. They both employ the pitch for good reason. Though they have thrown far fewer pitches than noted slider hurlers Colby Lewis, Anibal Sanchez, and Francisco Liriano, they rank third and fourth in the league in wSL.

Just last week Matthew examined Marmol’s insane strikeout rate, two batters per inning pitched. He also walks a ton, 5.40 per nine, and when hitters make contact they have produced good results, a .369 BABIP. Yet only four of 28 baserunners have come around to score. That’s where his strikeout rate comes into play. Runners reaching base is no big deal with Marmol on the mound. A few more sliders and he can set down the next hitter. The strikeout rate, in fact, is likely a large part of his insane 91.2 percent strand rate.

Though his strikeout rate isn’t Marmolian, Gregerson’s 10.05 per nine puts him near the top of the league. Where he really stands out, though, is in his control. A pitcher who throws sliders so frequently is bound to walk hitters, but not Gregerson. He has walked just two in 28.2 innings, a rate not only far superior to Marmol’s, but good enough for second in the league. Only the Cardinals Ryan Franklin has walked hitters at a lesser clip, just one in 24.1 innings. Though perhaps Cliff Lee’s four walks in 52.2 innings is a bit more impressive.

Looking back on R.J.’s article from last September, this isn’t exactly new for Gregerson. He was barely hittable then, and that has carried over into this season. Yet much has changed. He threw the slider 49.6 percent of the time last year, still a high mark, but not as frequent as this season’s 60 percent. The results have shown up in the batted ball data. Opponents have a .170 BABIP against him, and have managed a line drive rate of just 12.5 percent, both marks falling far below last year’s. While some of that might be luck, the slider plays a prominent role. It looks like hitters just can’t square up the slider, even if they know it’s coming.

When his slider isn’t working, Gregerson has little to work with. It appears that this has only happened twice this season. The first came in Gregerson’s first appearance of the season. Manager Bud Black said that Gregerson’s slider “didn’t look right” in that outing against the Diamondbacks, who allowed three hits and a walk in just a third of an inning. Then, in an appearance on May 14th, he hung a slider to Matt Kemp. That remains the only home run Gregerson has surrendered this year. It comes as little surprise that Gregerson struck out no hitters in those two appearances.

Whenever I see a pitcher who throws breaking pitches so frequently, I wonder about long-term health prospects. Can a pitcher possibly get by while twirling the ball more than every other pitch? Mike Wuertz, who threw sliders more frequently than any other pitcher last season, missed the first month of 2010 with shoulder tendinitis. Mitch Stetter, who threw over 60 percent sliders last year, hasn’t gotten hurt, but the Brewers optioned him to AAA after 3.2 horrible innings this year. Brad Lidge, who threw 56.2 percent sliders during his dominant 2008 season, spent time on the DL in 2009 and 2010. Bill Bray, who threw 50.9 percent sliders in 2008, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009. Kiko Calero, league leader in slider percentage in 2007, missed 121 days between the end of 2008 and 2009 with various shoulder injuries.

There are some survivors, of course. There always are. Marmol himself hasn’t missed time with an arm injury since 2006, and that was before he started throwing the slider 50 percent of the time. Wuertz has thrown more than 60 percent sliders in each of the past three years and this year was the first time he spent time on the major league DL with arm trouble. There seems to be some correlation in the anecdotes and the data, which does cause some concern for Gregerson’s future.

The Padres’ bullpen has benefitted greatly from Gregerson and his slider. The unit claims the NL trifecta of fewest walks, most strikeouts, and lowest batting average against. They’re getting help from everywhere, but Gregerson has been a particular bright spot this season. The high slider frequency does cause a little concern, but for right now it’s his nearly unhittable weapon. I can’t imagine being an opposing hitter and standing in to face him.

Three outfielders of youth and future notoriety today: Kyle Blanks, Matthew Joyce, and Michael Saunders.

Some people are going to take this the wrong way, but I’d definitely nominate Blanks and Saunders for the Reggie Cleveland All-Star team.

Three cats who found new scratching posts this weekend. Jason Giambi, Matt Stairs, and Doug Davis.

I have little to add, other than I hope Padres fans have ordered their shirts.

Pitchers and catchers are reporting soon, and we’ve got plenty of players who need more Fan Projections! Are you keeping up your end?

Today’s projection targets are from the most neglected group of Fan Projectees: relievers.

The Rangers’ C.J. Wilson inexplicably turns up in the press fairly frequently.

The Padres’ closer, Heath Bell recently settled to avoid arbitration.

The As’ Brad Ziegler was the ground-balling surprise story of 2008, but was even better in 2009.

Click here to enter your 2010 projections for Wilson, Bell, and Ziegler.

The trio today involves Jim Thome, Russell Branyan, and Carlos Delgado.

Here’s a fun fact about Branyan: 51% of his career plate appearances have ended in either a homer, walk, or strike out. By comparison, Adam Dunn sits at 49% and Carlos Pena at 45%.

Today’s targets are three questionable Dayton Moore acquisitions: Scott Podsednik, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Kyle Farnsworth.

Otherwise known as The Trio That Drives Matt Klaassen Nuts.

Today’s projection targets include a slick-fielding outfielder with a problematic bat, a legendary master of the strike zone, and a Cubs pitcher.

Austin Kearns was signed to a minor-league deal by Cleveland earlier this week. Although his bat has been less than stellar the last few seasons, his skills in the field are what keep teams interested. What will his role be in Cleveland, and how will he perform?

Perhaps tired haggling with Yorvit Torrealbea, the Rockies went out and signed hacktastic purveyor of passed balls Miguel Olivo to back up Chris Ianetta in Colorado. How much will Olivo play, and was the power he flashed in 2009 sustainable (particularly in his new run environment) given his plate “discipline?”

Last off-season, Ryan Dempster received a 4 year, $52 million dollar contract, and promptly went out in 2009 and proved to be worth it. Surprisingly, as I’m typing this, he hasn’t reached the projection threshold. Will his success in 2009 continue in 2010?

Click here to enter your 2010 projections for Kearns, Olivo, and Dempster.

Happy New Year’s Eve (Day)! Let’s crank out one more set of fan projections before the decade is over. Today’s players: Mark Ellis, Josh Willingham, and Luke Hochevar.

It seems like just yesterday that A’s second baseman Mark Ellis was the toast of the on-line baseball nerd community for his outstanding second base fielding. We threw a collective fit (or at least released a collective sigh) when he signed a far-below market deal with Oakland (right before the market collapsed). Our thoughts on Ellis today? As I’m typing this, he hasn’t even passed the threshold for fan projections. Sure, Ellis missed much of 2009 due to injury, but are our memories that short? C’mon.

About this same time last season, the Jim Bowden-run Nationals were seemingly intent on fielding Ryan Zimmerman, a pitcher, and seven outfielders. One of the many outfielders acquired in Bowden’s final bonanza before the end of his career as a baseball executive was Josh Willingham. While sometimes forgotten between Elijah Dukes, Nyjer Morgan‘s incredible year in the field, and Adam Dunn’s amazing (in very different ways) year at the plate and in the field, Willlingham had another season that was below average with the glove, but good with the bat. But what will he do going forward?

We certainly need more pitcher projections, and for this last one we have another forgotten man: 2006 #1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar. While he has been generally disappointing in the majors so far, Hochevar did have several dominant starts last season, including a 13 strikeout game. Which Hochevar is the real one? How will he fare against (fading) expectations in 2010?

Click here to enter your projections for Ellis, Willingham, and Hochevar.

Today’s three targets share two things in common: 1) each is a centerfielder, and 2) each stands shorter than 6′. They are Rajai Davis, Tony Gwynn (Jr.), and Brett Gardner.

Here’s a random thought about each.

Here’s a fun fact to show anyone that thinks Billy Beane holds the same thoughts as he did in Moneyball: Davis has attempted 84 steals in the last two seasons. In 2002, the A’s attempted 66… as a team.

The most annoying aspect about Gwynn is that the FanGraphs linker tool doesn’t know whether I mean him or his father. Argh.

Raise your hand if you had Gardner outlasting Melky Cabrera in the Bronx three years ago. Yep, this is why rosterbating years in advance often leads to blindness.

Or is it Christmas Eve Day? Why does being a blogger gotta be so hard?

Whatever holiday you choose to celebrate (or not) this December, won’t you spread a bit of cheer by clicking here to enter your projections for Fernando Rodney, Troy Glaus, and John Buck?

Rodney was signed by the Angels in order to shore up their bullpen in the wake of Brian Fuentes‘ less-than-faith-inspiring 2009. How will Rodney perform, and in what role?

After losing almost all of his 2009 season to injury, Troy Glaus was signed by Atlanta, where he will reportedly play first base instead of third. Will his skills translate to plus defense at first, or will he struggle? Will Glaus still be able to hit with power after dealing with shoulder problems?

Seemingly moments after being non-tendered by the Royals in favor of the undead Jason Kendall, John Buck was signed by the Blue Jays to a one-year, two million dollar contract. He seems to be in line for the majority of the starts at catcher. Was the power he showed in 2007 and 2009 for real? Is my liking for Buck based in some latent ability of his, or is it completely irrational?