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In Game 2 of the ALCS, Max Scherzer was utterly dominating, striking out 13 of the 25 Red Sox batters he faced. Despite all the strikeouts, he managed to get through seven innings on just 108 pitches, mixing in some efficiency with his ability to avoid contact. The Tigers held a 5-1 lead when Scherzer was replaced to start the top of the 8th inning; by the time the inning was over, the game was tied, and the Red Sox won in the bottom of the 9th to tie the series at 1-1.

On Saturday night, Scherzer was again very good, but not quite as dominating as his first outing. He struck out 8 of the 27 batters he faced, but struggled with his command at times, issuing five walks in the process. His last walk was the last batter he would face in 2013, as a free pass to Xander Bogaerts put runners at 1st and 2nd with only one out, and clinging to a 2-1 lead, Jim Leyland opted to replace Scherzer with Drew Smyly to go after the left-handed hitting Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury would reach on an error, and then Shane Victorino hit the grand slam, and the ALCS was over.

Twice, Max Scherzer was removed from the game with the Tigers having the lead. Twice, Tigers relievers coughed up the lead by giving up a grand slam. Had the Tigers bullpen protected those leads, they very likely would be playing St. Louis for the World Series title, but instead, they have to sit at home and wonder what could have been. And it’s easy to wonder whether Scherzer could have done better than his bullpen had he been entrusted to pitch just a little bit longer.

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Like many relievers, Koji Uehara basically throws something fast, and something offspeed. Unlike many relievers, Uehara doesn’t really throw a breaking ball. He throws a pitch that breaks — every pitch breaks — but you don’t look for him to throw a slider or a curveball. After Saturday’s ALCS Game 6, when Uehara was all the rage, someone on FOX asked Boston manager John Farrell if Uehara had  thrown a curve before. Farrell said his closer thew one once and hit a guy; he hadn’t thrown a curveball since. Everything else was fastballs and splitters, and because of those pitches — and because of Uehara’s command of them — he didn’t need anything else on the way to one of the greatest relief seasons in recent history. You could say Uehara’s third pitch is location. That wouldn’t make sense, but people would know what you meant.

I decided to fact-check Farrell’s remark. At least, I think it was Farrell, but it doesn’t matter in this instance. Uehara did throw a curveball this season. According to Brooks Baseball, it was one of the least frequent pitches in the league, like Kris Medlen‘s slider, or Mark Melancon’s changeup. But it did exist. Just not exactly as Farrell remembered it. In fact, this past season, Koji Uehara threw three curveballs. These are their stories.

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If the Cardinals are to earn a berth in the World Series Friday night, they’ll have to do so opposing a team starting Clayton Kershaw, presumably baseball’s best starter. Taking the mound for the Cardinals will be a still-mostly-unproven rookie in Michael Wacha, and on the face of it, that puts the Cardinals at a considerable disadvantage. But, a few things are working in their favor. One, the Cardinals are at home, and the home-field advantage is undeniable, even if it’s almost impossible to observe in the moment. Two, Wacha and the Cardinals just beat Kershaw and the Dodgers earlier in this very series, by a 1-0 final. So nothing here is impossible. And three, some people figure that by this point in the season, pitchers are pitching on fumes. Wacha, however, only seems to be getting stronger. The gap between Kershaw and Wacha exists and is big, but right now it’s probably not as big as you might’ve thought.

There’s something to be said for postseason adrenaline. There’s something to be said for Wacha still finding his way as a starter in the bigs. And there’s something to be said for the way Wacha has been handled this year, as the Cardinals didn’t want a repeat of the Strasburg Shutdown in 2012. The Cardinals anticipated the future, they wanted to have Wacha available down the stretch, so they gave him some breathers over the course of the summer. As a result, Wacha’s stabilizing a late-season rotation that’s missing Shelby Miller. He’s not just throwing his pitches — he’s throwing his pitches better.

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According to multiple reports, the White Sox have agreed to terms with free agent first baseman Jose Abreu on a six year, $68 million contract. Abreu, who turns 27 in January, has been a star slugger in Serie Nacional, the premier baseball league in Cuba, and played for the Cuban team in the World Baseball Classic this past spring. The $68 million guarantee shows that Major League teams are beginning to put a little more faith in players from Cuba, as the big successes of Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig have likely instilled some confidence in players coming over without needing a long transition period.

However, there’s a pretty big difference between Puig, Cespedes, and Abreu: they were signed in part because of their athleticism. Cespedes was signed as a center fielder, and though Puig was reportedly out of shape when other teams scouted him, the Dodgers clearly saw the dynamic tools that allowed him to make a huge splash this summer. Both Puig and Cespedes had Major League skills that went beyond what they did at the plate, and didn’t necessarily have to develop into upper level sluggers in order to justify their paychecks.

Abreu is, by all reports, strictly a 1B/DH type, and comparisons to guys like Ryan Howard don’t exactly inspire confidence that he’s more 1B than DH. The entirety of Abreu’s value is likely going to come from how well he hits. And $70 million for a guy who has to hit in order to be a big leaguer seems like a bit of a gamble, given that hitting seems to be the single hardest thing to forecast.

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Spend enough time around the Detroit Tigers and you’re certain to see Alex Avila take an absolute beating. He took a beating in Thursday’s Game 5 against the Boston Red Sox, and was removed during the game in favor of Brayan Pena. The main issue? Avila got run over at the plate by fellow catcher David Ross and wound up with a knee injury. Shortly thereafter, Avila took a foul tip right off the chin, with Ross this time standing in the batter’s box. Ross, of course, didn’t intend to knock Avila out. Surely, catchers are more sympathetic when they inflict pain on other catchers. But talk to the Tigers and they’ll tell you this is a pattern. They’ll tell you Avila get knocked around more than any catcher they’ve seen.

For example:

After struggling through a season of more foul tips than coaches and teammates have seen any other catcher endure, Detroit Tigers starter Alex Avila is out of commission with delayed concussion symptoms.

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The Dodgers are still alive in large part thanks to Adrian Gonzalez, and for Gonzalez, it’s been a series somewhat defined by the inside pitch. The crucial double he hit off Adam Wainwright — the double that would eventually lead to the manufactured, insufferable Mickey Mouse racket — was hit against an inside cutter off the plate, by the hands. In Wednesday’s Game 5, Gonzalez yanked a pair of solo home runs, the first giving the Dodgers a lead. In the bottom of the third, Gonzalez pulled an inside Joe Kelly fastball for his longest home run since 2009. In the bottom of the eighth, Gonzalez again went deep, getting in front of a high, inside John Axford curve. With Andre Ethier hurt, Matt Kemp genuinely out, and Hanley Ramirez effectively out, Gonzalez is feeling more pressure to deliver than usual, and he’s been a big part of what success the Dodgers have had.

The Dodgers, of course, expect Gonzalez to be a rock in the middle of their lineup, which is one of the big reasons they made that insane trade in the first place. And Gonzalez has the track record of being an underrated offensive superstar, and he’s still just 31 years old. He’s coming off a 124 wRC+, which isn’t fantastic, but which is good, and which is an improvement from the year before. But while Gonzalez can still hit and while he can still make a difference in a critical series, it’s interesting to observe how things have changed in the process. What Adrian Gonzalez was, he appears to no longer be.

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Once the second inning rolled around Wednesday, Game 4 of the ALCS felt like a blowout. The Tigers put together a five-run inning, then shortly thereafter they added two more, and though the Red Sox did what they could to chip away, the Tigers at no point felt threatened as they coasted to a series-evening victory. But there is one interesting quirk: while the Tigers wound up winning by four, between their hits and walks and hit batters they racked up 17 offensive bases. Between the Red Sox’s hits and walks they racked up 17 offensive bases, too. In a sense, Wednesday’s was a game about sequencing, with the Tigers putting more bases together.

Which isn’t to suggest it was all a matter of luck, because of course it wasn’t. It was the sequencing in the second inning that did the Red Sox in, as six Tigers reached base and five Tigers scored. Jake Peavy walked three of 17 batters in his start, but they all came in the span of four batters, following a single. The first run the Tigers scored was on a bases-loaded walk by Austin Jackson, and Jackson walked on four pitches. All of the rest of the damage followed. What happened between Peavy and Jackson got me wondering about some things.

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Jim Leyland is an elder statesman of the game, usually recognized as one of the best managers in baseball, and his Tigers just won their third straight division title. The three best managers of the last generation, Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa, and Joe Torre, have all retired. So, is Leyland a future Hall of Famer?
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The Cardinals felt like they were in a good position, handing the ball for Game 3 to Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals lost, not because of Wainwright, but because they couldn’t score. The Tigers felt like they were in a good position, handing the ball for Game 3 to Justin Verlander. The Tigers lost, not because of Verlander, but because they couldn’t score. Verlander, on Tuesday, turned in one of the better postseason starts all-time, I’d say. Over eight innings he struck out ten and was made to pay for one mistake. But John Lackey and the Red Sox bullpen kept the Tigers shut out, with Koji Uehara slamming the door. And Uehara’s outing was not without its moment of interest.

It was bad for the Tigers when Miguel Cabrera struck out with two on in the eighth. It was bad for the Tigers when Prince Fielder struck out right after. But according to the play log, the worst play all game for the Tigers was Jhonny Peralta‘s ninth-inning double play. After Victor Martinez‘s leadoff single, the Tigers’ win expectancy was an estimated 35%. After the double play, it dropped to 5%. Hope was torn down as quickly as it was built up, and Alex Avila’s closing at-bat felt like a formality. The game effectively ended on Peralta’s grounder, and that grounder came on a pitch that followed a 1-and-1 fastball.

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Sunday, the American League Championship Series brought us wild swings in win expectancy, a roller coaster of a game that left people in awe. Game Three of the National league Championship Series brought us wild swings in emotion, but they didn’t show up in the game graph. Or, they didn’t show in the entirety of the game graph: they showed in that one highlighted at-bat in the graph, and in the actions of one player. Yasiel Puig inspired many emotions, before, during and after his game-changing triple, but he was also, maybe fittingly, the batter that added the most win probability to his team’s chances Monday night. In essence, the game turned on his matchup with Adam Wainwright in the fourth inning.

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