Archive for Game Report

ALDS Game Four Review: Tampa Bay

The Rays got on the scoreboard first in a game. Notable because in the previous three games, they had trailed before scoring their first run (or in game two’s case: when they thought about scoring a run).

Carlos Pena took a lot of heat for his awful performance in game one. Joe Maddon did not start him in game two against C.J. Wilson. Without much in the way of alternatives, Maddon had to throw Pena back in there against the righties in this series and hope the trust and larger sample size would prevail. Sure enough, Pena hit a triple in his first plate appearance today and a double in his second. Giving him a hit of each base variety over his last four plate appearances and giving the Rays a 1-0 lead after Matt Joyce’s blooper dropped in (credited as an error to Ian Kinsler).

Pena would spark another run in the fourth, hitting the second of back-to-back doubles alongside Evan Longoria. B.J. Upton would double two batters later, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead. Longoria would hit a two-run homer in the fifth and the Rays would have five runs on the day and 11 in the last two games —not bad for a team that managed a run in its first 18 innings this postseason.

Wade Davis had a strong start himself by going five, allowing seven hits, a homer, walking three, and striking out seven Rangers. Davis flashed heat and solid breaking stuff throughout along with some conviction. That’s often an overstated part of pitching and one heavily based upon outcomes, but he showed little fear or self-doubt while challenging Josh Hamilton (with a base open) or Vladimir Guerrero (with the bases loaded). A spotless start it was not, however not a bad way to begin a postseason career, and not a bad way to potentially wrap his first full season in the bigs.

The two teams will take a travel day tomorrow and meet one last time in St. Petersburg on Tuesday night. That’s right, it’ll be a night game for the first time in the series. The probable matchup is David Price and Cliff Lee for the third time this season, with the two teams splitting the first two affairs.


ALDS Game Three Review: Yankees

The only thing different about this one was that the Twins didn’t take an early lead. In their previous five postseason meetings the Twins scored early only to lose the game. The Yankees jumped out in this one and never looked back. The built up a 5-0 lead by the fourth, which was more then enough to secure the series victory. It was the Yankees’ ninth straight postseason win against the Twins.

In his first playoff start Phil Hughes starred. He had pitched 12 postseason innings previously, but all in relief. In 2007 he came on in relief of Roger Clemens, who left the game with an injury in the third inning. Hughes pitched 3.2 scoreless innings, striking out four and holding down the Indians while the Yankees took the lead. Last season he pitched in all three rounds, but ended up allowing six runs in 6.1 innings. Last night he’d eclipse his 2009 postseason innings total.

Hughes faced 25 batters through seven innings, using 99 pitches to dispatch 21 Twins. Only five opponents reached base on him, four on singles and one via a walk. The first one who reached, Denard Span in the fourth, was immediately erased on a double play. That came off the bat of Orlando Hudson, and was the biggest out of the game, -9 percent WPA. After that the Yankees broke open the game, and Hughes never again pitched with a WE of under 90 percent.

The only remotely interesting situation after the fifth came in the top of the eighth. Kerry Wood, working for the third time in the series, started by allowing a double to Danny Valencia. Two batters later Span moved him to third with a single, and then Hudson singled him home. But with five more runs to make up and just five outs with which to score them, that barely put a dent in the WE. It got as low as 93.3 percent when Wood walked Joe Mauer, but was quickly back up over 99 percent when Boone Logan and David Robertson induced fly outs to end the inning.

Only one play in this game produced a WPA of over 10 percent. That was Marcus Thames’s home run to right-center in the fifth inning. That gave the Yankees a 4-0 lead. Thames hit 12 home runs in the regular season, none of them to the opposite field. In fact, only three of them were even to left-center (though our splits classify one as center field).

With the win the Yankees are the first team in the League Championship Series. They’ll wait until Friday, when they’ll travel to either St. Petersburg or Arlington for the start of a best-of-seven series.


ALDS Game Three Review: Tampa Bay

For the first five innings, this game felt like a direct-to-DVD sequel to the previous two in the series. The Rays stranded baseruners and allowed a run on usual circumstances. In the sixth, everything we came to expect was turned upside down.

Joe Maddon allowed his lefty bats to stay in against lefty Derek Holland. Matt Joyce reached on a fielder’s choice and Dan Johnson followed with a single. Normally this would mean two on with one out and Carlos Pena coming to the dish. Instead, Joyce rounded second aggressively, allowing Nelson Cruz to gun a perfect throw to second base for the tag on the retreating Joyce. Pena walked and Ron Washington quickly yanked Holland in exchange for the flamethrowing Alexi Ogando. B.J. Upton’s rough series (0-10 to this point) witnessed a reprieve as he sent a ball into left field, tying the game and taking his throne as the Fresh Prince of Bay Air.

Matt Garza escaped a potential explosive situation a half inning later, retiring Nelson Cruz with two on and two out with an assist to a diving Jason Bartlett. Right place, right time for Bartlett, who seemingly tagged a sliding Elvis Andrus on a stolen base attempt earlier in the inning; Andrus was called safe, but replays later showed that he was indeed off the base at the time of the tag.

Ian Kinsler led off the bottom of the seventh with a homer and the reality of elimination became distinct once again. Then Dan Johnson came once more. The Great Pumpkin sent a Darren Oliver ball deep into right field. Free agent to be Carlos Pena connected with a single to right and again the equalizer scored. With two outs and Bartlett due up, Ron Washington went to his bullpen for closer Neftali Feliz. After walking Bartlett, John Jaso hit a ball to center that scored Pena. Jaso advanced to second and slid so hard that he uprooted the base.

Consecutive plays untethered the binding ropes of fear from the hands of Rays’ fans throughout the land. Carl Crawford’s going away party would not happen tonight and would not happen on a silent note. After robbing draft classmate Josh Hamilton on a difficult to field ball in left field, Crawford led off the ninth with a home run. Widening the Rays’ lead and chasing Feliz. Shortly thereafter, Pena made his presence felt once more and blasted a ball deep into the Texas’ night.

Rafael Soriano would enter and close the door. The Rays survive to play at least one more game. Game four’s probable matchup remains Wade Davis and Tommy Hunter.


NLDS Game Two Review: San Francisco

Heard this: Rick Ankiel prolly made himself another $5-$7 million dollars last night. This jibes with what anonymous scouts are saying — the energy and competitiveness of this series has to be largely credited to Ankiel and the other former Royals prominently involved.

That probably makes about as much sense as anything else after last night’s 5-4, extra-inning victory by the Braves over the Giants. Going into the game, Matt Cain and Tommy Hanson seemed to be quite evenly matched when looking at their current season stats and their recent CHONE projections (3.88 projected nERA for Cain, 3.86 for Hanson). The game didn’t play out that way. Pat Burrell opened the scoring with a three-run shot off of Hanson in the first that was good for about a 25 percent jump in win expectancy. Given the way Cain was dealing, it looked like that homer was going to be more than enough even without the additional run driven in by Cain himself in the second. Other than the home run, Hanson wasn’t horrible, although he wasn’t impressive either, and understandably got pulled for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth. Cain finally gave up a run in the sixth inning, but for the most part had the Braves easily in hand when he was pulled with two outs in the seventh. Up to that point, the Braves looked mostly helpless at the plate, and the Giants’ Win Expectancy was up at around 95% despite being shut down by an impressive stream of Atlanta relievers for the second straight game.

The game began to unravel for the Giants in the eighth. It is difficult to blame it on their tactics, however. Sergio Romo came in to pitch in the top of the eighth and promptly gave up singles to Derek Lee and McCann. Romo was still a good choice, as he is a dominating strikeout pitcher, avoids walks well, and his flyball tendencies are offset by the nature of the park. Bruce Bochy also made the right call to bring in closer Brian Wilson for a two-inning save at this point. The leverage index (LI) was as higher than it had been all game to that point — Wilson’s pLI for the game ended up being 2.59 — and that is the best way to maximize a relief ace’s outings. It didn’t work out, but it was the right decision. The Giants’ infield didn’t do Wilson any favors, as a throwing error by third baseman Pablo Sandoval allowed Melky Cabrera, one-third (along with Nate McLouth and Rick Ankiel [more on him in a minute…]) of the Braves’ Disaster Trio to reach first, scoring Lee. After a sacrifice bunt, the Braves tied the game on an Alex Gonzalez double that drove in two more runs. Wilson finished the inning and retired the side in the ninth, as well.

The extra innings were bizarrely dramatic. Former Royal and personal favorite Ramon Ramirez dispatched the Braves in the top of the 10th, and in the bottom half, San Francisco again looked poised to put the game away. It was potentially (and still may turn out to be) a disastrous inning for the Braves, as Billy Wagner injured his oblique after successfully fielding Andres Torres‘ sacrifice bunt that moved Edgar Renteria to second base, forcing the Braves to bring in everyone’s favorite high leverage reliever: Kyle Farnsworth. Good news, everyone! Professor Farnsworth did not disappoint, drilling Freddy Sanchez and then walking Aubrey Huff to load the bases with one out and Buster Posey coming to the plate. What happened next upped the SI (Surrealism Index) considerably, with Posey hitting a grounder to nominal third baseman Troy Glaus (yes, he’s still alive), who, rather than getting the runner at home, made the daring decision to start the double play… and it worked to the tune of a 33 percent shift in win expectancy.

It would be hard to top that, but Rick Ankiel’s game-winning shot off of Ramon Ramirez managed to do so. One could make criticisms of Bochy’s leaving Ramirez in the game, at least for that plate appearance, but none of them are devastating. Ankiel does have a pretty large platoon split, so maybe bringing in, say, Jeremy Affeldt in to face Ankiel might have been the right move, but Ramirez himself doesn’t have a huge platoon split for his career. Moreover, Affeldt hasn’t been that great this season, and even with the platoon advantage Rick Ankiel is still Rick Ankiel. Perhaps more worrisome would be that Ramirez gives up a lot of fly balls, and power is probably Ankiel’s only skill (albeit one mostly hidden the last two seasons) at the plate, but there was a much greater chance of Ankiel making an out than hitting it out, and the park deflates home run/fly ball rates. Still, the bullpen was rested from not having to work the previous night, and had the next game off — so there was no reason to be stingy with reliever usage. In any case, things obviously didn’t work out for the Giants, and Ankiel sent one into the water. Even The Professor adding a bit of drama by allowing a baserunner in the bottom of the 11th couldn’t top that drama. The only thing keeping this game from aesthetic perfection was that Jose Guillen wasn’t available to ground into a game-ending double play.

The Giants have good reason to think they should be up two games after one great and one good performance from their starting pitchers against a decimated Braves lineup. Thanks in large part to a contingent of former Kansas City Royals on both sides, they’ll be heading to Atlanta with the series tied.


NLDS Game Two Review: Philadelphia

Well, as improbable as it was, this game did not turn out exactly like Carson Cistulli drew it up. Roy Oswalt did not strike out fifteen batters and hold the Reds scoreless, and Scott Rolen did not hit a home run off of Jose Contreras. And instead of two homers, Chase Utley hit no homers.

The funny thing? The Phillies still won and Bronson Arroyo actually pitched as decently as was predicted. What if Sports had Arroyo going seven innings with a strikeout, a walk and three runs allowed on five hits, and he actually allowed two (unearned) runs in five and a third innings with two strikeouts, three walks and four hits allowed. I mean, that’s not bad for literally trying to predict the future down to the hit batsman. Despite the awesome leg kick, and kicking tunes, Arroyo’s stuff was not of the shut-down variety (two swinging strikes all game). He gamed through it, gritting and grission-ing his team to a lead.

Arroyo may not have been as good as the typical game story may suggest, but the task at hand is to think about this from the Phillies’ angle. And really, was Oswalt’s night deserving of so much better? I mean, yes he had better ‘stuff’ and more swinging strikes (nine of them!) and was right around the zone all night (only one walk, and no pitches that were a foot-plus out of the zone like Arroyo had), but he also grooved a few many straight down Broadway. Those home runs to Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce happened, we can’t xFIP them away despite Oswalt having a decent groundball-to-flyball ratio (6-to-7).

Though Jimmy Rollins was oh-for-the-series, and ‘failed’ once again in a key position (one down, tying runs on base in the 7th inning, the third-highest leverage index moment of the game), his soft flyball to Jay Bruce (a +18.9 Right Fielder this year according to UZR) was muffed about a billion times, and suddenly Rollins looks like a hero to Oswalt’s zero. Seriously, Bruce missed a play he should have had 95+ times out of a 100 (or, rather, 256 in 259 times), then screwed up the throw, the relay was punted, and Rollins stands on second with the crowd roaring. Rollins gets a .352 WPA for the play, Oswalt a -.152 for his five innings, three run effort. Sometimes WPA doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Reds, the better fielding team going in, fell apart and made a division-series-record four errors in a game they should or could have won. Or: The Phillies put the ball in play against a Reds’ staff that only struck out four in nine innings – putting pressure on the defense, which lead to five unearned runs and a win. Two ways to tell the story once again, but as happy as the Phils may be, they have to know that a good amount of luck helped them along their way on Friday night.

In another universe, in another iteration of this game, Oswalt pitched a second-straight no-hitter and the Phillies beat up on Arroyo. Same result, I guess. Phillies up 2-0 and a step away from the NLCS.


NLDS Game One Review: San Francisco

Two stories stand out in what was quietly the most competitive game of the playoffs so far: Tim Lincecum’s dominance, and a crucial blown call.

As several people pointed out in the immediate aftermath, Tim Lincecum’s game score of 96 was actually higher than Roy Halladay’s 94 in his no-hitter against Reds on Wednesday. This isn’t an endorsement of game score, but does make one think. After all, is a complete game two-hitter really that much less impressive than a no-hitter for a pitcher, given all the variables (fielders, “bad bounces,” ballparks, weather conditions, etc.) that go into the destiny of batted balls? While Lincecum gave up two hits to Halladay’s zero, Lincecum also struck out 14 to Doc’s 8. Then again, 10 of Lincecum’s batted balls were flylballs while 12 of Halladay’s 19 were grounders. I’m not choosing a side, and it doesn’t really matter. Halladay’s game will justifiably go down as one of the greatest in playoff history, but Lincecum’s should get at least a footnote.

Lincecum’s dominance made it seem as if the Giants were running away with the game, but, of course, they only won 1-0. As noted in the preview, Derek Lowe is no slouch. While Halladay’s no-hitter led fans to dub the playoffs “Doctober,” (a meme that became irritating about 15 minutes after it began) Braves starter Derek Lowe made a reasonable case for OctLOWEber, striking out 6 and (more impressively) getting 11 ground balls on 13 balls in play before getting pulled after five-and-a-third. For all the helplessness the Braves offense displayed, the Giants weren’t exactly ripping the cover off of the ball. This should be troubling since, although Lowe is a good pitcher, he’s probably only Atlanta’s third-best starter. Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson aren’t going to make things any easier on the Giants hitters.

Unfortunately, the best game of the playoffs so far was marred by a blown call that set up the only (and thus deciding) run scored in the game. Leaving aside the larger discussion of officiating going on elsewhere, let’s focus on the sequence of the half-inning, since it features not only an officiating blunder, but some “interesting” tactical decisions. Buster Posey singled to lead off the bottom of the fourth. With one on and no outs, and Pat Burrell at the at the plate, either San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy (or perhaps Posey himself) decided it would be a good time to attempt a steal. Although Posey is probably faster than most other catchers, he’s no speed demon, and hasn’t successfully stolen a base in the majors this season. While Brian McCann isn’t Yadier Molina behind the plate, he’s not Ryan Doumit, either. Of course, it “worked” as Posey took the base, despite replays showing that he was tagged out. After Burrell struck out followed by a Juan Uribe whiff, Bobby Cox made a questionable decision to intentionally walk Pablo Sandoval in order to get Lowe the platoon advantage against Cody Ross (the double play potential is irrelevant with two outs), and Ross singled to score Posey for what turned out to be the game’s deciding run.

It’s worth running through the sequence less to emphasize the blown call (which was undoubtedly the key event in the game given what came after) or the curious tactical choices (Bochy kept it up by sending Aubrey Huff, of all people, in the ninth inning; he got gunned down by McCann). Rather, it again reinforces the reality of just how close this game really was, despite Lincecum blowing the Braves away left and right. Giants fans will justifiably remember Lincecum’s awesome performance for a long time. But given San Francisco’s own offensive impotence against the Braves third-best starter, it shouldn’t make them feel overly confident heading into Games Two and Three.


ALDS Game Two Review: Minnesota

Continuing the theme of the 2010 postseason, the turning point of this game was a blown call by home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. With a runner on first and nobody out, Carl Pavano had Lance Berkman in a 2-2 hole, and threw a sinker that started inside and ran back over the dish. The pitch was right on the edge, and was called a ball by Wendelstedt. On the next pitch, a changeup below the zone, Lance Berkman smacked a double and scored Jorge Posada from first.

Moments later, the Yankees scored thanks to Derek Jeter being super clutch, and they never looked back. New York ended up loading the bases with only one out on the board, but Jon Rauch served as the human blood clot, stopping the bleeding before it got completely out of hand.

At that point, the Twins were still within two runs and facing a starter who had been sitting and cooling off during this entire rally. They still had a 24% chance to win, but Pettitte got through the bottom of the seventh without a hitch, dropping the Twins chances to 15%. Kerry Wood looked dominant in the eighth, and Mo Rivera did his thing in the ninth, putting the Twins on the verge of elimination.

Before the seventh, the game was a back and forth battle in which no one seemed to be in command. Both teams were trading runs, with both Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano hitting their spots and keeping the damage to a minimum. Pavano got into some trouble in the sixth (and seventh), but other than that, he was in control of Yankee hitters the rest of the night. He was hitting his spots on the outside corner like a sniper, and doing a good job at getting grounders early on.

Even though the Yankees’ seventh inning is what ultimately did the Twins in, I will direct you back to the bottom half of the second inning. The Twins loaded the bases in the second with only one out, yet managed to score only a single run on a sacrifice fly. That was a big disappointment, and scoring a run actually lowered their Win Expectancy.

If I had to pick an MVP for the Twins, it’d have to be Orlando Hudson or Denard Span. Hudson hit a big homer and was first on the team in WPA, while Span did a great job of working the count and making Pettitte throw pitches, something that won’t show up in the boxscore.

THE CRAIG SAGER SUIT WATCH
When Jack and I discussed doing this feature before the series began, I expected The Salton of Suit to give us more material. On Thursday night, Sager’s suit was actually…reasonable. Sure, he looked like a tablecloth, but it was mild by Sager’s standards. I think he’ll break out the pinstripes when the series moves to New York, and you can bank on that.


ALDS Game Two Review: Tampa Bay

Expect the spotlight to be on the check-swing call in the fifth inning. Michael Young appeared to show intent of a swing on a Chad Qualls’ pitch. At least, it appeared that way to everyone but the first base umpire, who ruled that Young did not swing. Young homered and the Rangers never looked back. Young’s homer added .153 in win probability, shifting the Rays’ chances of winning from 22.8% to 7.5%. It’s impossible to say whether Qualls escapes the jam (although Randy Choate likely would have entered to face Josh Hamilton) or if the Rays would have plated a run later on. As such, speculation is rather pointless.

The fear over James Shields taking the mound proved to be mostly overblown as well. He failed to go five innings while allowing two extra base hits (a homer and a double), two groundball singles, and hitting Matt Treanor twice. Shields struck two out and walked none. He did not pitch brilliantly, but well enough that he kept the team in the game. The first run he allowed was a microcosm of his season. After hitting Treanor and having him advance on a Julio Bobron grounder and Elvis Andrus single, Shields made an errant pickoff throw, allowing the sluggish catcher to cross the plate easily. Some blame for that gaffe goes to first baseman Ben Zobrist too.

Joe Maddon pulled Shields in order to have a groundball pitcher face a groundball hitter in a double play situation. The added bonus being that Hamilton would not bat until the next inning and without runners on.

The real goat of the game (and series) continues to be the Rays’ offense.

Evan Longoria had two at-bats with a runner on while the game was competitive and reached out of the zone both times, recording nondescript outs. Only three batters held positive WPA for the Rays in this game and one of those (Dan Johnson) entered as a pinch hitter. Meanwhile, one of the other positive WPA hitters, Willy Aybar, joined the roster today, replacing the injured Rocco Baldelli. The Rays two-through-five hitters combined to go 0-11 with a walk and four strikeouts. Leadoff hitter Jason Bartlett was the only Ray to reach twice, once with a hit and the next time after being struck by a pitch.

A few media folk wondered aloud why Jeff Niemann didn’t start the game during his relief appearance where he struck out four batters in three innings while allowing two baserunners. Classic case of results bias, as those same folks would have questioned the decision to start a guy who made seven starts after returning from the disabled list and allowed 36 earned runs in 32 innings pitched.

The Rays will play the franchise’s first must-win Divisional Series game Saturday evening in Arlington. The probable matchup is Matt Garza and Colby Lewis.


ALDS Game One Review: Yankees

The WPA chart took a circuitous route last night.

After Nick Swisher struck out to lead off the sixth, it appeared as though the Twins were well on their way to a Game 1 victory. With a three-run lead and one out in the sixth, their win expectancy reached 87.7 percent. Francisco Liriano had just retired his ninth straight batter. The heart of the Yankees order was due up, but none of them had hit the ball particularly hard to that point. But as we so often see in baseball, the game changed without warning.

Starting with a Mark Teixeira double, the Yankees chipped away at the Twins. That one-out hit moved the green line 4 percent toward the Yankees side. A wild pitch and a walk moved it another 5 percent. Robinson Cano smacked an inside fastball through the right side to move the green line another 7.4 percent. The Yankees were on the board, but the Twins still had a 71.1 percent WE. A Marcus Thames strikeout moved that to 77.6 percent, but Jorge Posada continued the chipping process with a single to right, moving the line 11.4 percent.

Chipping away is all fine and good — old school baseball fans seem to love it. But sometimes you need that big hit to wrap it all up. Curtis Granderson provided that big hit. Liriano had worked Granderson away in his previous at-bat, but finally came inside on the fifth pitch. One inning later he employed a similar pattern, backdooring a slider for strike one and then missing with two fastballs. On the fourth pitch he stayed outside with a fastball, but Granderson was ready. He hit a long, high drive that bounced off the wall in center. The hangtime allowed even Posada to score from first and give the Yanks the lead. Win Expectancy: 63.5 percent, Yankees.

Something similar happened in the bottom of the inning. It might not have been as drastic, but just as Liriano faded after some strong work, so did CC Sabathia. He had retired nine straight heading into his half of the sixth, and he quickly made that 11 by getting Joe Mauer to strike out and Delmon Young to hit a heart attack of a fly ball to the warning track. After that point he had lost his command. Two walks and a double later, Sabathia had the bases loaded. That brought the Twins’ WE to 44.6 percent. All Danny Valencia had to do was stand there to put the green line back in favor of the Twins.

With the game still tied, there was no reason for the Yankees to chip away in the seventh. Instead, they got the proverbial bloop and blast, though it was more like a sharp grounder and a shuttle launching. Jesse Crain, who had been so dependable for the Twins during the season, had trouble with his command to Teixeira. The first two pitches he threw ended up high; the second one, a curveball, a bit more dangerous than the first. On the next two pitches, both low fastballs, Teixeira took big rips, but managed only to foul them off. Eventually Crain’s high-balling tendency got the best of him. He left a slider hanging and Teixeira lined it up like it was on a tee. The ball barely stayed fair, but when it landed it moved the green line 28.4 percent toward the Yankees’ side.

The Twins did mount one final comeback attempt, putting runners on first and second with one out in the eighth. They started the inning with an 18.3 percent WE, but had managed to raise it to 27 percent after Valencia dribbled one past the pitcher. A grounder moved the runners but cost the Twins 5.6 percent in WE. The next at-bat would prove to be the most costly for the Twins.

With the tying run on second and with seemingly none of his relievers able to throw strikes, Joe Girardi turned to the one man he knew he could trust. Mariano Rivera warmed up quickly and jogged out to the mound, tasked with retiring four batters. He apparently needed three more warmup pitches, but after that he was fine. He kept pounding Denard Span with cutters inside, and eventually Span did what most hitters do: break his bat and hit a soft grounder. That cost the Twins 13.1 percent in WE at a time when they couldn’t afford to go much lower.

One pitch, one place.

The only remaining moment of note came with two outs in the ninth. Young got a good piece of a high cutter and lined it to right. Greg Golson, in as a defensive replacement, came charging and appeared to make the catch on his shoestrings. It was inevitable, then, that the umpire would rule it a trap. That just seems to be the way the umpiring has gone lately. It wasn’t quite the gift that Phil Cuzzi gave the Yankees against the Twins in last year’s ALDS, but it still brought the tying run to the plate. Fortunately for the Yankees, he popped up the first pitch.

While the Yankees won, they walked a tightrope for the last few innings. From the sixth inning on their pitchers walked five batters. They also needed to burn their best bullpen arms, and perhaps rendered Rivera unavailable for tomorrow’s game. That’s all secondary to the win, but it could easily work against them in Game 2.


NLDS Game One Review: Philadelphia

Roy Halladay? Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay, Roy Halladay, Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay!

With due respect to Shane Victorino, whose two hits and two RBI helped him lead all batters with a .179 WPA, it was one of those games where you felt like the pitcher could have won it by himself, even with a lineup filled with nine Roy Halladays. In fact, Doctober’s one hit (a liner to left that Johnny Gomes misplayed) and RBI were good for a .079 WPA, second on the team, so in this case that was true. A team full of Roy Halladays would have won this game. He accounted for 80.4% of the teams WPA.

But of course it was his work on the mound that was so impressive. He showed legendary control in pitching his no-hitter, only producing 25 balls on 104 pitches. He induced weak groundball after weak groundball (12 of them, to 6 fly balls). He was efficient – using only 11.6 pitches per inning. He was dominant. He had the kind of game that will go down in history right next to Don Larsen’s perfect game. He produced a game of which everyone who watched felt unworthy. He was awe-some.

And yet, he had a tiny bit of help, including a great play by Carlos Ruiz to close out the game. Check out this game graph from Brooks Baseball, which shows that John Hirschbeck’s strikezone was a little bit generous on the sides, but nothing that Orlando Cabrera should have been whining about:

Doesn’t matter. Halladay deserves all the credit he can get. Look at the strikezone plot of his pitches, an exercise in control and command:

We wondered how hungry Halladay was in the Lincoln-Douglas Remix preview, and it seems he’s hungry enough to eat the postseason. Second no-no in postseason history? Amazing. First postseason appearance? Legendary. There are practically no adjectives that really get it all the way right.