Kelly Shoppach is going back to where he started. The 31-year-old catcher agreed to terms on a one-year, $1.35 million contract with the Boston Red Sox — the organization that drafted him in the second round of the 2001 draft. With incentives, the deal could be worth $1.75 million.

Signing with the Red Sox ensures that Shoppach will remain in the American League East, where he spent the past two seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays. His time with the Rays was largely disappointing: he hit .185/.285/.340 in 440 plate appearances. In the four seasons prior, he posted a .343 wOBA with the Cleveland Indians — the fifth-best mark among AL catchers with at least 800 plate appearances.

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The Red Sox seem keen on moving Daniel Bard to the rotation, a move that — despite his lackluster results as a Minor League starter — seems like a good decision. But, since Daisuke Matsuzaka will be unable to take the ball at the season’s outset, the Sox are still in need of a fifth starter. In house candidates such as Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront, Andrew Miller and Kyle Weiland abound, but since they all project as below-average options, rumors of external candidates continue to percolate, particularly via the trade market. One new(er) name is Wandy Rodriguez.

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Sometimes there seem to be two separate branches of saber-oriented blogging: one that uses sabermetric tools to analyze current events (player transactions, in-game strategic choices, etc.), and another which focuses on more theoretical issues (e.g., specific hitting and pitching metrics). Obviously, the latter is supposed to ground the former, but there still seems to be something of a disconnect between the two levels in popular perception. I say this because I was recently part of a discussion in which some were pointing out the superiority of linear weights run estimators for individual hitters to the approach of Bill James’ Runs Created. Someone then made a comment to the effect that this was simply a nit-picking preference for a “pet metric” that really did not make that much of a practical difference.

Sabermetrics is far from being a “complete” science in any area. Debates about how best to measure pitching and fielding are obvious examples of this. With respect to run estimators, there is a greater level of consensus. However, because of the progress (at least relative to pitching and hitting) that has been made with run estimators for offense, that also means there is less of a difference between the metrics. However, it does make a difference. Rather than arguing for one approach to run estimation over another, I want to simply look at a few different free agents from the current off-season to see what sort of difference using one simple run estimator rather than another would make on a practical level.

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Last season, it was a common point of view that Yuniesky Betancourt and the Brewers’ massive weakness at shortstop would be the doom for Milwaukee’s bid at competitiveness. As bad as Betancourt was, the real reason the Brewers needed a 22-3 stretch in August to overtake the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Central crown was the struggles of Casey McGehee at third. McGehee put up an atrocious .223/.280/.346 line — a 68 wRC+ — and was eventually replaced by Jerry Hairston Jr. come the playoffs.

The Brewers moved earlier to fill their need at shortstop, signing Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal with a vesting option. Today, the Brewers completed the left side of their 2012 infield, adding Aramis Ramirez on a three-year deal worth somewhere between $34 million and $37 million — that is, you the readers were pretty dang close.

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When he accepted a 10-year, $254 million offer from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last week, free-agent first baseman Albert Pujols ended a tremendous chapter in his baseball career. He also joined a team in California — the state with the highest tax rate in Major League Baseball for those who earn as much as Pujols.

Various sources have noted that Pujols’ decision to sign with the Angels, over the St. Louis Cardinals, could see him forgo millions more dollars to income taxes. Certainly, his leaving Missouri — where the highest marginal tax rate is 6%, plus the 1% local rate in St. Louis — now puts Pujols in a state where the highest tax rate is 10.3%.

But athlete taxation isn’t anywhere near as cut-and-dried as it might seem. Most definitely, it’s not simply comparing rates between states or multiplying a player’s salary by the highest rate. That’s not how it works. As we discussed earlier this offseason, the ‘Jock Tax’ is fairly convoluted and it’s far more intensive.

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While a substantial portion of St. Louis Cardinals fans may still be in shock over the loss of Albert Pujols to the Angels, the front office has not stopped working. The team has reportedly signed shortstop Rafael Furcal (who recently turned 34) to a two-year, $14 million contract (pending a physical), marking a willingness to move on not only from the Pujols Era, but also from the Reign of Ryan Theriot. Furcal hit poorly in 2011, and has had trouble staying healthy in recent seasons. However, given the situation the Cardinals find themselves with respect to both contention and other internal candidates, the signing makes sense for them.

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While the Angels’ signings of C.J. Wilson and LaTroy Hawkins didn’t displace anyone, Albert Pujols‘ new deal has created quite a logjam at the corner positions for his new team. And now someone is going to have to go to make it work.

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There has been plenty to discuss this offseason, with the Angels, Marlins and Phillies making big splashes and rumors sprouting up left and right every single day. However, Carlos Beltran’s name has barely been mentioned to the point that one could wonder if teams forgot he was available.

According to our nifty custom free agent leaderboard, Beltran was the fourth most productive non-pitcher on the market. At 4.7 WAR, only Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols performed better last season. Based strictly on offensive value, Beltran’s .389 wOBA and 151 wRC+ ranked third to just Fielder (.408) and David Ortiz (.405). He lost some points for below average fielding but ran the bases at an above average clip. Overall, last season marked a return to form that should have set Beltran up nicely for the offseason, especially considering he was the cream of the available outfield crop.

He can’t regularly play centerfield anymore, but this isn’t the 2009 offseason, when a glut of corner outfielders hit the market at the same time. Aside from Beltran, prominent outfield options include(d) Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Coco Crisp. DeJesus signed a modest two-year, $10 million deal but the others remain free agents. Even Grady Sizemore was signed to a one-year deal potentially worth $9 million if he meets incentives. Willingham and Cuddyer will probably end up signing deals with average annual values in the $7-$10 million range. Beltran’s desired salary is largely unknown but it’s hard to fathom him requesting much more than Willingham and Cuddyer, despite superior production.

Beltran will end up signing for something like one year and $12 million, or two years and $20 million, both of which could include playing time incentives. This is well below what 4-5 WAR often costs on the market, but a low enough salary that teams aren’t scared off by his injury history. The lack of interest in Beltran is strange, but likely means some team will get a very productive player at a relative bargain.

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Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers took a calculated gamble by offering Francisco Rodriguez arbitration earlier this offseason. They expected the right-hander to decline arbitration in pursuit of a closer’s role and a multi-year deal elsewhere, and Milwaukee would garner two draft picks in the process.

Teams started snapping up available closers, however, and Rodriguez sat on the sidelines without many available options. The Padres were rumored to be interested at one point, but instead opted to trade for Huston Street. The Mets internally discussed a reunion with their former closer, but settled on Frank Francisco to likely handle the ninth inning.

In the end, too few viable landing spots were available to entice K-Rod to forgo arbitration and gamble on the open market. He accepted the Brewers’ offer of arbitration and will receive a salary somewhere just south of $13.5M — the amount he made in 2011 with the Mets and Brewers — and serve as the set-up man for John Axford.

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For the second year in a row, the “Mystery Team” has proven that they’re not a myth. This year, though, I’m having a harder time explaining the logic behind the move. Last year, Cliff Lee wanted to go back to Philadelphia, the Phillies were in win-now mode after compiling a roster that was just one piece away, and the two were able to work out a deal for an amount similar to what other teams were bidding.

This year, however, the Angels decided to blow the doors off the Albert Pujols sweepstakes, and they got their man by outbidding everyone else in a pretty significant way. The reported deal has the final dollar figure landing in the $250 to $260 million range over the next 10 years, nearly 13 percent higher than the next best reported offer (which has been disputed) and 25 percent higher than the offer the Cardinals reportedly made before the bidding got hot and heavy. And while I love Albert Pujols, it’s going to take a lot of things going right for this to work out for the Angels.

At $250 million over 10 years, the Angels are essentially paying for something close to 40 wins over the life of the deal. In order to believe he’ll produce at that level, you need to see Pujols as something close to a +6.7 win player now and will age fairly well, which is possible but is not the most likely outcome in this scenario. You also need to believe that he’s not lying about his age – if he is, there’s almost no chance this deal works for Anaheim. And, of course, you need him to stay healthy, which bigger guys often can’t do in their thirties. The Angels have absorbed a massive amount of risk by guaranteeing Pujols this much money for so long, and while the potential for him to earn it is there, it’s not clear that this is the best path they could have taken.

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