The release of Baseball America’s South Atlantic League top-20 list is essentially Christmas for me, as much of my time is spent scouting the league. This season, I had the opportunity to see 11 of the top-20 prospects featured in person, which is actually a down year for me. Fortunately, the Greenville Drive, the Boston Red Sox “Sally” affiliate was well represented, with four players in the top-20, including two of the highest ceiling prospects in the system in outfielder Brandon Jacobs and shortstop Xander Bogaerts.

As two of the best hitting prospects in the league this past season, both Jacobs and Bogaerts deserve to be ranked highly on the list, and they check in 8th and 10th respectively. However, I was pretty surprised to see Jacobs edge out his teammate for a higher position on the list.

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Our series on disappointing Top 10 prospects from 2011 continues with a look at the American League West. We’ve already taken a trip through the AL East and Central.

Seattle Mariners
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Johermyn Chavez, OF

I’ve been a pretty big supporter of Chavez since his days in the Jays organization (He was part of the loot, along with Brandon League, for Brandon Morrow) so it was more than a little disappointing – but not entirely unexpected – to see him struggle at double-A in 2011. Still just 21, he saw his wOBA drop from .410 to .304. His power also dried up as he went from having an ISO rate of .262 in a potent A-ball environment to .144 in a lesser (but still above-average) offensive-minded league. Chavez’ BABIP swung wildly along the way from .364 to .268. The good news is that his plate discipline did not change that much. His strikeout rate climbed by 2.6% and his walk rate also climbed… by 1%. The strong-armed outfielder will likely repeat double-A in 2012 but he’s still ahead of the curve in terms of age/development. He’ll probably never hit for average in the high minors or Majors but he should be able to improve upon his .212 and get up into the .250-.260 range if he can learn to better handle the off-speed stuff.

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Earlier this week, we began the series looking at the top disappointing prospects — who appeared on the preseason top 10 lists — for each American League East organization. Today, we’re continuing with the AL Central.

Cleveland Indians
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Levon Washington, OF

Washington was a high pick out of both high school and junior college and I was far from impressed with him both times. His 2011 season gives me even fewer reasons for optimism. The infielder-turned-outfielder showed some pretty big holes in his game while posting just a .311 wOBA in 298 at-bats in low-A ball. He hit .218, showed little power (as expected) with an ISO of .097 and struck out way too often (25.4 K%). Washington did walk at an impressive clip (14.0 BB%) but didn’t do much when he got on base (15 steals in 21 tries) even though speed is supposed to be his main weapon.

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Prospect ranking season is just around the corner here at FanGraphs. Starting at the end of October, the annual Top 10 Prospect lists will be back for a third year. While I work feverishly to whittle down those lists behind the scenes, let’s have a look back at the 2011 Top 10 lists and see which prospects disappointed in each organization, starting with the American League East.

New York Yankees
FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 Prospects
Decreased Value: Slade Heathcott, OF

Had I included RHP Andrew Brackman on my Top 10 list, he most certainly would have been listed here; thankfully I resisted temptation. Despite his horrendous season, the Yankees organization has to be pretty happy with the development of its other key prospects in 2011; few players saw their values decrease. Having to pick one from my list, I settled on Heathcott. The outfielder was drafted out of a Texas high school with a less-than-stellar reputation and a well-documented difficult past. The year started off well for Heathcott but then there was a brawl incited by the Yankees prospect and then a shoulder injury that wiped out the remainder of his season. The 2012 season will be a big one for Heathcott as he definitely has the tools to be a star.

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Late in the 2010 season, I caught my third start of Colorado Rockies pitching prospect Tyler Matzek in Savannah against the Sand Gnats. At the time, Matzek was quietly floundering at the level, but still regarded as one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game. Over four innings, Matzek gave up only one run, but struggled mightily commanding a fastball which began the game touching 91 mph, but finished at 85-87 mph. It was a disappointing performance from a scouting standpoint, even though his final line was that of a pitcher who bent, but did not break.

The following evening, my concern over Matzek grew over something many would not even notice. While charting pitches, it seems the young left-hander spent a few too many hours watching “The Future’s So Bright” on repeat as his shades never left his face throughout the game – causing me to think Matzek considered himself “Too Cool For School“. Had he presented as the former first-round pick who signed for $3.9 million, I probably wouldn’t have noticed. However, after a sub-par performance which left Matzek looking more project than prospect, the look struck me as indifferent, leaving a negative impression.

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In 2011, the Atlanta Braves found themselves the envy of professional baseball behind a quartet of impressive young arms in Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. The chatter about these young pitchers remained loud throughout the season to the point where other arms in the system were overshadowed. A handful of those names made headlines only after being dealt to the Houston Astros for Michael Bourn. That trade created a pitching void at the middle levels of the Braves organization. Cue Ronan Pacheco.

In the history of Fangraphs, I wonder how many positive pieces have ever been written about a 23-year year old pitcher in the lower minors who strikes out less than six-per-nine innings while walking a shade under four-per-nine? Knowing full well this piece will draw the ire of a great many Fangraphs readers based on the numbers alone, Pacheco is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss.

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Major League Baseball has seen a subtle change in philosophy over the past few years. More and more teams are relying on their minor league systems to develop talent to fill big league holes, rather than focusing on the typically more expensive veteran players on the free agent market or via a trade. Unless, of course, you’re the San Francisco Giants organization.

This season, we’ve seen quite a few rookies play prominant roles on their respective clubs. Below, you’ll find a list of six position players in their first MLB seasons. Let’s find out how well they compare – both in output and financial considerations – to the players who filled their roles in 2010.

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The MLB season is drawing to a close, which means it’s about time for rampant speculation about next year’s free agents. One of my favorite off-season storylines is that of the east Asian baseball markets both giving and absorbing talent.

This past off season, we witnessed the likes of Chad Tracy, Wladimir Balentien, and Micah Hoffpauer head west to the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league while Japan sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Ryan Vogelsong Minnesota and California’s way.

Let’s look at the present NPB league statistics, so we can start writing our wishlists and dreaming about next year’s rosters.

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The Tampa Bay Rays organization has kept pace with powerful organizations in the American League East division for the past few years for one key reason: The ability to develop cheap, high-impacting talent through minor league development.

Entering 2011, the Rays’ FanGraphs Top 30 prospect list began with Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Desmond Jennings. Both Hellickson and Jennings have already cemented themselves as key MLB contributors . Moore – who was just promoted to the Majors for a ‘cup of coffee’ to finish off 2011 – should follow suit in ’12.

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In 2009, the Savannah Sand Gnats boasted the best starting staff across the New York Mets organization. With Historic Grayson Stadium within walking distance, I scouted 50 or so of their games that season which included starts by each of their starting pitchers. Among the pitchers i saw was Chris Schwinden, who is scheduled to debut Thursday for the Mets.

On that staff, I nicknamed one pitcher “family night” and took the night off from scouting whenever he pitched. That player was Chris Schwinden, who was considered a non-prospect by not only me, but by contacts I spoke to who watched him in person.

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