Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game Cincinnati at New York AL | 13:05 ET Bailey (27.1 IP, 113 xFIP-) vs. Severino (120.2 IP, 72 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm seems — as was the case yesterday, as well — to have selected a Reds-Yankees contest as the day’s most appealing. As was also the case yesterday, the involvement of the Yankees themselves is largely responsible for that. Few, if any clubs, are playing games of greater consequence right now. According to the coin-flip methodology — which seems to best reflect how the dumb human mind operates — the Yankees currently possess a 57% chance of qualifying for the postseason. So, nearly even.
The presence of scheduled starter Luis Severino is also of some consequence. Among qualified pitchers, he’s recorded the highest average fastball velocity, at 97.6 mph. He also appears among the league’s run-prevention leaders by basically every measure.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cincinnati Radio or New York AL TV.
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Most Highly Rated Game Cincinnati at New York AL | 19:05 ET Castillo (35.0 IP, 85 xFIP-) vs. Montgomery (101.1 IP, 105 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm appears to have selected this evening’s Reds-Yankees game as the day’s most appealing. Of particular note, it seems, is the participation of young Cincinnati right-hander Luis Castillo. Among the 203 pitchers who’ve recorded 20-plus innings as a starter this season, the 24-year-old rookie has produced the second-highest average fastball velocity — behind only Noah Syndergaard by that measure. His swinging-strike rate (13.3%), meanwhile, places in the 93rd percentile among that same group.
The involvement of the Yankees is also responsible for the game’s high score. The American’s League New York franchise currently possesses almost precisely a 50% chance of qualifying for the postseason according to the coin-flip methodology of this site’s playoff odds. The coin-flip methodology, while actually less accurate than the projection-based model, does appear to better reflect the dumb human mind’s sense of the league’s various postseason races.
Most Highly Rated Game Boston at Seattle | 22:10 ET Rodriguez (66.1 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Paxton (94.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm has identified this evening’s Boston-Seattle game as the day’s most compelling. Largely because of James Paxton, is the reason for that. The left-hander has been a nearly perfect pithcing specimen. Because, regard: not only has Paxton produced top-10 fastball-velocity and pitching-independent figures among the 150 starters who’ve compiled 50-plus innings, but he’s also recorded one of the fastest paces among pitchers in that same sample. The leverage of this game for Boston is also notable. According to this site’s coin-flip methodology — which seems to best reflect how the dumb human brain works — the Red Sox possess almost exactly a 50% chance of making the playoffs.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.
Most Highly Rated Game Washington at Arizona | 16:10 ET Strasburg (119.2 IP, 80 xFIP-) vs. Ray (112.0 IP, 90 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has selected this afternoon’s Washington-Arizona game as the day’s most compelling. In this case, the distinction seems warranted. Consider: both probable starters have the capacity to overwhelm hitters, each having produced a top-10 strikeout rate among baseball’s 70 qualified pitchers. As for the clubs involved, both continue to play games of some relevance, the D-backs very much chasing a Wild Card spot while the Nationals attempt simply to preserve their lead in the NL East.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.
Most Highly Rated Game Toronto at Cleveland | 19:10 ET Stroman (119.0 IP, 81 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (55.0 IP, 81 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified today’s Toronto-Cleveland game as the most appealing. While, at this point in the season, a club’s playoff odds — and, specifically, the proximity of those odds to 50% by the coin-flip method — are weighted more heavily than pitching-related variables, the performances this year by Marcus Stroman and Danny Salazar have been exceptional or something like exceptional this year. This, in conclusion, accounts for the logic behind the selection of this game as the day’s most appealing.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.
Most Highly Rated Game Milwaukee at Pittsburgh | 12:35 ET Nelson (115.2 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Taillon (67.2 IP, 83 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified three games of similar interest today: this Milwaukee-Pittsburgh game, the Arizona-Cincinnati contest also at 12:35 p.m. ET, and the Yankees-Mariners game at 10:10 p.m. ET. Of particular note regarding this game is the pitching matchup, featuring a pair of starters who each sit at 95 mph and who’ve recorded roughly five wins between them, both by the FIP-based version of WAR and the runs-allowed one.
One might consider preparing for the game by reading about how Jimmy Nelson has utilized his college studies in kinesiology to render his mechanics more efficient. One might consider also not doing that.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.
Most Highly Rated Game Seattle at Houston | 14:10 ET Paxton (87.1 IP, 79 xFIP-) vs. Morton (68.2 IP, 86 xFIP-) Three games are separated by mere hundredths of a point for the distinction of today’s most appealing, per the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm. The Yankees-Twins contest features two clubs in close proximity to the top of their respective divisions. The Tampa Bay-Oakland game features, in the Rays, one of the league’s top power-hitting and running clubs despite a prohibitive budget. Finally, this Mariners-Astros affair offers a pair of pitchers who’ve recorded an average fastball velocity of 96 mph. Were free will to exist, the reader would be invited to exercise his or her while deciding which of today’s games to consume. Because it doesn’t however, no such invitation has been been extended.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle or Houston Radio.
Most Highly Rated Game Arizona at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET Ray (106.0 IP, 86 xFIP-) vs. Romano (8.0 IP, 125 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm indicates that no single game on today’s schedule is demonstrably more promising than the others. As for this contest between the D-back and Reds, it has received the honored designation of Most Highly Rated largely because of the dumb author’s own interest in young, right-hander Sal Romano. Not unlike other Reds starter Luis Castillo, Romano entered the season with something less than universal praise as a prospect. Also like Castillo, however, he features a plus fastball. Consider: over two starts, Romano has recorded an average fastball velocity of 96.3 mph. That mark would place him fifth among the league’s 71 qualifiers.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio.
Most Highly Rated Game Milwaukee at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET Suter (27.1 IP, 94 xFIP-) vs. Kuhl (85.1 IP, 110 xFIP-) The author’s haphazardly calculated algorithm has identified today’s Brewers-Pirates game as the day’s most compelling due partly to Milwaukee’s chances of winning the division (about 64% accrording to the coin-flip method) and also to Brent Suter’s surprising competence as a member of the Brewers’ rotation (he’s recorded an 83 xFIP- over three starts). Why else that algorithm has identified this game as the day’s most compelling, though, is due to the pace at which Suter works.
Consider the following table, which includes the top pace marks by starting pitchers (minimum 10 innings):
What one finds here is that Suter works a second faster per pitch than the next resident on this list, Madison Bumgarner, and that he works two seconds more quickly per pitch than the sixth-fastest-working pitcher. League average among starters is 23.6 seconds between pitches, or roughly six seconds slower than Suter. Over the course of a 100 pitches, in other words, Brent Suter saves 10 minutes of everyone’s life — time which one can then dedicate to the consumption of a long Russian novel or other improving book.
Most Highly Rated Game New York AL at Boston | 20:05 ET Tanaka (102.0 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Price (53.0 IP, 104 xFIP-) Were the season only a month or two old, the author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm would have likely identified this afternoon’s Giants-Padres games as the day’s most promising — based, that, on what appears to be that contest’s superior pitching matchup (based on 2017 performance, at least). However! As the season continues, the aforementioned algorithm weighs more heavily the seasonal leverage of the clubs involved. San Francisco and San Diego, possessing no reasonable chance of qualifying for the postseason, are playing what amounts to a well-attended exhibition game today. As for New York and Boston, however, each possesses a very reasonable chance, thus making the consequences of any one game (such as this one) much greater.