Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at San Diego | 16:40 ET
Godley (18.2 IP, 72 xFIP-) vs. Richard (53.2 IP, 85 xFIP-)
If one takes for granted that the ideal outcome for a batter is a fly ball — and there are a number of hitters (Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, et al) who do regard that as the ideal outcome — then one might regard Zack Godley as the pitcher most well suited to preventing that outcome. Consider: nearly 40% of plate appearances against him so far this season have ended either in a strikeout or a walk. Of the batted balls Godley has conceded, more than 70% have been grounders. “If a batter cannot elevate,” wrote Isaac Newton in lesser-known text, “then he’s incapable of consequently celebrating.” This is the principle on which Godley has based his approach.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona or San Diego Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Ray (45.1 IP, 86 xFIP-) vs. Perdomo (34.1 IP, 70 xFIP-)
Among starters who’ve recorded 30 or more innings so far this season, San Diego’s Luis Perdomo has produced the very best ground-ball rate (70.5%). What else he’s done — and what represents a departure from his rookie campaign last year — is also to miss bats at an above-average rate. Pairing those two results with such frequency is rare. By way of illustrating how rare, please consider the following handcrafted chart, which identifies not only Perdomo but also other who’ve recorded a similar combo pacakge of outcomes so far this season.

Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Alex Wood are objectively effective pitchers. Perdomo’s teammate Trevor Cahill hasn’t previously been so effective, but is now effective. Shall one conclude that Perdomo is likely to be effective, as well? One shall, probably.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona or San Diego Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Severino (42.0 IP, 68 xFIP-) vs. Ramirez (24.2 IP, 82 xFIP-)
Typically, when a pitcher records an ERA that’s a whole run higher than his xFIP, the result is a bad ERA. Luis Severino’s fielding-independent numbers have been so good this year, however, that despite allowing an extra run every nine innings, he’s still been better than average overall. Among his main virtues is arm speed: Severino has produced the highest average fastball velocity among qualifiers by nearly a full mph. Among not his virtues is allowing home runs. As for prudence, justice, etc., the author lacks sufficient knowledge of the situation to comment.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Colorado at Minnesota | 19:10 ET
Chatwood (48.0 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Berrios (7.2 IP, 136 xFIP-)
The Mysteries are a series of episodes from the life of Jesus of Nazareth on which Catholic people meditate while praying with a set of rosary beads. Twins right-hander Jose Berrios is a different sort of mystery — one who features impressive physical tools and an excellent minor-league track record but who has nevertheless had trouble preventing runs at the major-league level. His season debut was superficially promising (he allowed just one run in 7.2 innings) but troubling in other ways (he struck out only four of 27 batters and allowed a lot of fly balls). His opponent, Tyler Chatwood, has recorded one of the league’s lowest strike percentages but has compensated for it — from an aesthetic point of view — with one of the majors’ quickest paces.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Colorado or Minnesota Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Kansas City | 20:15 ET
Pineda (41.1 IP, 58 xFIP-) vs. Vargas (44.2 IP, 90 xFIP-)
Yankees right-hander Michael Pineda has produced strikeout and walk rates of 30.3% and 3.6%, respectively, this year. The 26.7-point difference between those two figures represents the second-best mark — behind only Chris Sale (32.9) — among baseball’s 99 qualified pitchers. He’s elite in that regard, is the idea.

Of some interest, as well: Kansas City starter Jason Vargas has recorded the league’s second-highest WAR figure — largely, that, by allowing the fewest home runs per fly ball among major-league qualifiers. The Yankees, meanwhile, have produced the highest park-adjusted home-run rate in the American League. “Will or won’t Vargas allow a home run?” one wonders. The suspense is terrible.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Kansas City Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are almost certainly justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Odorizzi (31.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (36.1 IP, 79 xFIP-)
Boston’s Chris Sale has recorded the top WAR among major-league pitchers by nearly a full win so far this year. Unfortunately, he isn’t pitching tonight. Who is pitching is Danny Salazar. Salazar hasn’t recorded the best or second-best or even fifth-best WAR among major-league pitchers. What he has done, though, is produce a better swinging-strike rate than both (a) Boston’s Chris Sale and also (b) all 95 other qualified pitchers. His changeup is mostly the reason. Salazar has registered a swing and miss on more than a quarter of the changeups he’s thrown this year.

Here are three examples of that changeup from Salazar’s most recent start:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland or Tampa Bay Radio.

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Below, one finds the first edition of this year’s daily NERD scores. Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is mostly available here. Please do not expect to be impressed by any of it.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York NL at Arizona | 21:40 ET
Wheeler (32.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Godley (12.0 IP, 69 xFIP-)
While Zack Godley’s occasional appearances on a major-league mound might not be universally regarded as “appointment television,” he’s been excellent over two starts this year, recording a swinging-strike rate (14.3%) and ground-ball rate (75.0%) that would rank sixth and first among the league’s 97 qualifiers at this point of the season. As a club, meanwhile, Arizona continues its exemplary baserunning, having recorded nearly twice as many runs as baseball’s second-best club by that measure.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at San Francisco | 15:05 ET
Maeda (173.0 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Moore (190.1 IP, 108 xFIP-)
As in other recent editions of this daily exercise, this current edition of the exercise is the product of an experiment — in particular, with regard to how the team NERD scores are calculated. At this point of the season, those team NERD scores are typically a function of each club’s playoff probability, where a probability of 50% (or, in a recent case, 33%) would yield a NERD score of 10; a probability of either 0% or 100%, a NERD score of 0.

For today, however, NERD scores have instead been calculated by utilizing championship leverage index (cLI) — which metric is, per Dan Hirsch’s Baseball Gauge, “a measurement of the importance of a particular game, based on how a win or a loss affects a team’s World Series win expectancy.” This is essentially the concept of leverage index applied not to a game state but a season state.

What I’ve done is to assess the highest current cLI (San Francisco’s 2.84 mark) a NERD score of 10 and scale all other cLI figures to that. The results of those calculations are below. (Note: all cLI numbers are available here.)

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals’ and Giants’ and Tigers’ team scores are the highest. They’re among a paucity a minority of clubs whose seasons haven’t been resolved. Because none of them are playing each other, however, none of the games themselves are likely to reach peak drama. All in all, it appears as though the Giants game is most urgent in its way. FanGraphs readers prefer Vin Scully’s Dodgers broadcast for this and every contest.

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | 13:05 ET
Kuhl (65.2 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. Wacha (137.0 IP, 97 xFIP-)
Over the last few days, in an attempt to fully illustrate the absurdity of this ongoing endeavor, the author has presented some alternative scoring methods and scales for these NERD game scores. To describe the public as “scandalized” would be an exercise in understatement. The mailbox is full of letters — the electronic mailbox, full of electronic letters — all of them saying one thing: “We are scandalized, Carson.”

Today, this hard look into the gauzy mists of our humanity continues. Below are two different, but also not entirely different, versions of the NERD scores for today’s games. The first one is a product of the methodology utilized in yesterday’s post. For this one, team scores are based entirely on the relevant club’s postseason odds — namely, the proximity of those odds to 33.3% repeating. A probability of precisely 33.3% yields a NERD score of 10; of either 0% or 100%, a score of 0.

The results of that:

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Glasnow (18.1 IP, 104 xFIP-) vs. Martinez (188.1 IP, 94 xFIP-)
Yesterday, the author experimented with a version of NERD game scores that does not assume an average NERD score of 5 for all teams every day of the season, but instead assesses a score to each club based on its postseason odds, where odds of 50% would equal a perfect score of 10 and odds either of 0% or 100% equal a NERD score of 0. Given the number of teams which have either clinched a playoff spot or, in most cases, been eliminated from the postseason altogether, this naturally leads to a lot of 0s. The advantage, however, is the there aren’t a number of teams clustered around the 4 mark, which naturally becomes the “average” score at a point in the season when most teams are playing for little and/or nothing.

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