NERD Game Scores for May 16, 2017
Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.
How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are almost certainly justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.
Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Odorizzi (31.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (36.1 IP, 79 xFIP-)
Boston’s Chris Sale has recorded the top WAR among major-league pitchers by nearly a full win so far this year. Unfortunately, he isn’t pitching tonight. Who is pitching is Danny Salazar. Salazar hasn’t recorded the best or second-best or even fifth-best WAR among major-league pitchers. What he has done, though, is produce a better swinging-strike rate than both (a) Boston’s Chris Sale and also (b) all 95 other qualified pitchers. His changeup is mostly the reason. Salazar has registered a swing and miss on more than a quarter of the changeups he’s thrown this year.
Here are three examples of that changeup from Salazar’s most recent start:
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland or Tampa Bay Radio.
Another Brief Note
Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Philadelphia at Texas, starts at 20:05 ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.
Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and also sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and the rest of the internet. Note that calculations both for team and game NERD scores feature adjustment for postseason odds that increases as season progresses. Read more about those adjustments here and here.
| Away | SP | TM | GM | TM | SP | Home | Time | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | TOR | Marco Estrada | 16:07 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | CLE | Danny Salazar | 18:10 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | PIT | Chad Kuhl | 19:05 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | DET | Matt Boyd | 19:10 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | MIA | Tom Koehler | 19:10 |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 4 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | CHN | John Lackey | 20:05 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | TEX | Yu Darvish | 20:05 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 0 | MIN | Phil Hughes | 20:10 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | STL | Lance Lynn | 20:15 |
| CC Sabathia | NYA | 3 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | KC | Jason Hammel | 20:15 |
| Tommy Milone | NYN | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | AZ | Zack Greinke | 21:40 |
| Derek Holland | CHA | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | LAA | JC Ramirez | 22:07 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 5 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | SD | Clayton Richard | 22:10 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | SEA | Chase De Jong | 22:10 |
| Rich Hill* | LAN | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | SF | Ty Blach | 22:15 |
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.
* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of doomed author.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
yaaaay they are back!
Can we get Dallas Keuchel some sort of adjustment? JC Ramirez’s mother isn’t more excited to watch him pitch than Keuchel.
I’d like to register a formal dispute of Lackey as an 8 SP score.
This season his combination of ineffectiveness and constant demonstrative grumpiness is actually little fun to watch. I haven’t seen a pitcher so constantly angry since the days Clemens was throwing bat shards at people, but Lackey doesn’t even do stuff like that or get ejected for yelling at umpires, so he’s not even an entertaining malcontent!
I will say this about Lackey, his grumbling has at times certainly helped him shape the strike zone to what he wanted it to be. I don’t have stats to back that up, but he complains and complains and it appears he starts getting a little farther off the plate and such. The old man grumpy gamesmanship that he and Lester utilize are some of the most entertaining parts of the games they pitch.
I, too, am not particularly enthusiastic about Mr. Lackey’s mound presence. His relatively high score appears largely attributed to his strike-throwing abilities this year. He’s recorded a 67.9% strike rate — eight best of the 165 pitchers who qualify for a NERD score and behind only these guys:
J.A. Happ (70.3%)
Clayton Kershaw (69.5%)
Michael Pineda (68.8%)
Bartolo Colon (68.5%)
Madison Bumgarner (68.3%)
Felix Hernandez (68.1%)
Stephen Strasburg (67.9%)
“All objections to the numbers here are almost certainly justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.”
Of course, one might be inclined to ask if the author was referring to NERD Game Scores or life.
What are you trying to prove with the military time, Cistulli?
The explanation probably lies in the fact that you could use Cistulli writing samples to help demonstrate to someone what the word ‘idiosyncrasy’ means.
It’s an affectation, adopted to suggest (incorrectly) that I’m worldly and cultured.
Thanks cistulli! Been keeping my eye out hoping these would come back
No Carson why are you doomed?!