The headliner in the James Paxton deal is LHP Justus Sheffield. He’s been a top prospect for so long that it’s easy to find updated reports on him and understand where he falls in the prospects landscape. The short version is that he has an above-average-to-plus four-pitch mix, but his command ranges from average to below average, so he could still fit in a number of roles in the big leagues, ranging from multi-inning relief power arm to mid-rotation starter.

The more intriguing pieces of this deal are the other two names, RHP Erik Swanson and CF Dom Thompson-Williams. Neither were on the year-end version of THE BOARD, but both were on our radar; we intentionally didn’t comb through every 40 FV candidate in the in-season update since that’s what we focus on in the winter.

If we were doing the Mariners list today, both would be 40 FVs; they’re good examples of guys who sneak up on you during the season and in whom you have greater confidence moving up once the season ends. Swanson works 92-94 with a rising four-seamer, hitting 98 mph at times with some deception and life, and backs it up with a solid average slider and advanced feel for how to use both pitches in tandem. He could be something like a back-end starter who mostly uses two pitches, but he’s more likely to be the 5th-7th best starting option for a contender, and fits most comfortably as a David Phelps-type multi-inning fireman who can also do the job of long relief and spot-starting. There’s upside as a 50 FV here (4th starter or setup guy) but he’s more likely to be a 45 FV in the big leagues as a useful utility-type arm, so a 40+ or 40 FV would be appropriate.

Thompson-Williams is a sneaky athlete who’s a solid average runner with an average arm that some think can play a solid center field, but that most think is a fourth outfielder-type who can play all three spots. He has plus raw power and some feel to hit, so there’s low-end everyday upside if things continue to come together at the plate as they did in 2018. But he was 23 years old in High-A, so he’ll need to move quickly to be likely to reach that upside. More likely, Thompson-Williams is a useful bench option as a platoon at multiple spots or as a player who can provide some thump off the bench. Given his shorter track record and age, that’s a 40 FV for now with a chance to turn into a 45 FV with more performance, certainty, and proximity to the majors.

I’ve been asked a few times where these prospects fall on the dollar scale of our new prospect valuation metrics. Sheffield likely won’t rank exactly 54th on our next Top 100 in January, but the $29 million figure is about right. Swanson and Thompson-Williams combine for about $5 million more. Paxton is due in the $20-$25 million range for his next two years via arbitration while projected–using the same $9 million per WAR figure that generated the prospect values–to be worth somewhere around $60-$69 million in that span. So the Mariners receive around $35 million in prospect value, and send $35-$50 million of value back, depending on where Paxton ends up in his range. That’s within the margin for error, but is a bit lighter than expected for a Paxton package given the wide interest. That said, this trade appears to bring the Mariners out of the cellar of our first farm system rankings.

The Cleveland Indians have once again traded away a malleable, athletic member of their talented group of AZL players in exchange for a player who can help them in 2019.

Cleveland gets:

RHP Chih-Wei Hu

Tampa Bay gets:

INF Gionti Turner

Turner was a 27th rounder in the 2018 draft and has already been flipped for a big leaguer. He wasn’t a Division-I commit, and was instead headed from Watson Chapel High School in Pine Bluff, Arkansas to Three Rivers Community College in Poplar Bluff, Missouri (different tree, still lyin’). But Cleveland signed him and he came to Arizona instead, where he managed to stand out amid many talented Cleveland teenagers. He hit .296/.348/.396 as a 17-year-old in the AZL while playing second base, shortstop, and center field.

Indeed, a multi-positional utility role is the most likely positive outcome for Turner. Lean and long-limbed, he struggles to swing the bat with any authority right now and may never have an offensive profile that fits in a lineup every day. Like many Cleveland high school draftees, Turner is extremely young for his graduating class; he didn’t turn 18 until mid-August. It’s possible that he’ll grow into relevant strength, but he’s already quite behind in that regard.

But Turner has plus speed, and a gritty, max-effort style of play, and he’s a plus-plus athlete. A lack of arm strength may limit him to the outfield and second base, but this is exactly the kind of athlete who can become an above-average defender all over the field.

25-year-old Taiwanese righty Chih-Wei Hu was a 2016 Futures Game participant and his stuff that day was as nasty as any pitcher at the event, as he sat 94-97 with a plus-plus, mid-80s changeup that seemed to disappear entirely as it approached the plate.

Hu’s five-pitch repertoire hasn’t truly been on display in his limited big league appearances, all of which have come out of the bullpen. His stuff has ticked down a bit; his fastball now sits in the 91-94 range and will touch 95, and his goofy, upper-80s palmball changeup has screwball action and is his best shot at missing big league bats. Hu also has an upper-80s slider/cutter and a low-80s knuckle curve, both of which he needs to locate in order to be effective because they’re very hittable if left in the strike zone.

Essentially, Hu has backend starter stuff but it’s possible a full-time move to the bullpen will enable his fastball to play up. If armed with a plus fastball and that weirdo changeup, Hu could be a high-leverage reliever. He still has an option year left and will likely open 2019 as a starter at Triple-A.

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As the FanGraphs prospect team starts to roll out team lists this off season, we’ve updated THE BOARD! to include team lists as they are published. You also might notice we did an update on the interface.

Important Notes:

• Team Lists will be added as they are published. Once all 30 lists and the Top 100 prospects are published, the Team Lists will just become the preseason 2019 list.
• The Scouting section for 2019 is split into position players and pitchers. This is to accommodate the addition of columns for Tommy John surgery date and spin rate for pitchers.
• The MLB Organization and Position selection now behaves like our splits tool. If you select one team, say the Padres, it will only show players in the Padres organization. If you were to click on another team, say the Braves, it will show you players in both the Padres’ and the Braves’ organization.
• You can now search for players within a board using the search box. The search function is limited to the current board, so it won’t find a player on the 2018 International board if you have the 2019 Team Lists loaded. It’s effectively a custom filter that filters on the player’s name and signing/college information.
• A .csv data file of the current board with associated filters can be exported from the top right corner of the data grid.

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the St. Louis Cardinals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

***Editor’s note: Andy Young was ranked #12 on this list upon initial publication, but he was traded to the Diamondbacks and removed from this list when the Dbacks list was published.***

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 6
This is the sixth episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:40 – Kiley takes a suggestion from Ben Lindbergh about a slogan for the podcast

2:50 – TOPIC ONE: Free Agency Preview

3:57 – Eric brings up how short the 2019 free agent class is set to come, relative to expectations a year or two ago

5:05 – Kiley gets in a solid Jeff Passan burn

5:20 – Discussing how we got here and how stock has moved in the past year or two, feat. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Patrick Corbin, Josh Donaldson, Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock, Daniel Murphy, Andrew McCutchen, Craig Kimbrel, Jed Lowrie, Nathan Eovaldi

7:00 – Eric brings up the junior college gambit Harper made almost a decade ago, specifically to pay off this offseason and Kiley speculates how much that ended up making him

8:20 – Kiley revisits how Harper, Machado and Jameson Taillon would’ve been evaluated using today’s amateur scouting methods as a way to get into comparing their markets today

11:00 – Kiley shares some buzz he’s heard about Washington’s willingness to spend on Harper (this is before the report came out about the $300M offer)

13:38 – Eric makes the case that Machado fits the Nationals better than Harper

14:50 – Eric comes off the top rope with a #RobotUmps leading to Harper being a catcher hypothetical

16:48 – Kiley comes off a different top rope with an Isaac Asimov reference

17:02 – Kiley comes down strong on Patrick Corbin vs. Dallas Keuchel

19:00 – Eric proposes a use case where Keuchel could uniquely fit with progressive clubs

21:30 – Josh Donaldson, Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock, Yasmani Grandal, Jed Lowrie are discussed as a group of similarly-regarded hitters that are tough to evaluate

26:00 – Kiley (we now know correctly) calls Hyun-Jin Ryu being the only to accept the QO.

27:35 – Eric reviews the Cleveland outfield situation with Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall leaving, and holdovers Leonys Martin, Jason Kipnis, Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, possibly Yu Chang

29:00 – Kiley points out that Cleveland’s approach paid off in timing Cody Allen and Andrew Miller correctly, as they’re both showing signs of decline

30:00 – The Yusei Kikuchi conversation

34:40 – Why Garrett Richards is so interesting and may draw interest from the most teams in this whole free agent class

38:48 – Kiley breaks down the chatter he’s heard regarding under-the-radar clubs that may spend more than you expect this winter: Padres, Reds, Twins, White Sox, Braves. Eric sees the Padres’ window may be opening.

43:00 – TOPIC TWO: Arizona Fall League review

44:53 – Glendale (BAL, CHW, CLE, LAD, NYY) players mentioned: Zack Burdi (CHW), Jordan Sheffield (LAD), Estevan Florial (NYY), Ryan McKenna (BAL), Luis Robert (CHW), Yu Chang (CLE), Luis Alexander Basabe (CHW)

53:30 – Mesa (BOS, CHC, DET, LAA, OAK) players mentioned: Brett Hanewich (LAA), Daniel Procopio (LAA), Darwinzon Hernandez (BOS), Erick Leal (CHC), Trent Giambrone (CHC), Esteban Quiroz (BOS), Eli White (OAK), Luis Barrera (OAK), Nico Hoerner (CHC), Bobby Dalbec (BOS)

58:55 – Peoria (ATL, MIL, SDP, SEA, TBR) players mentioned: Kyle Muller (ATL), Wyatt Mills (SEA), Adam McCreery (ATL), Travis Radke (SDP), Matt Krook (TBR), Ronaldo Hernandez (TBR), Hudson Potts (SDP), Buddy Reed (SDP), Trent Grisham (MIL), Keston Hiura (MIL), Lucius Fox (TBR), Joe McCarthy (TBR), Austin Allen (SDP), Ray-Patrick Didder (ATL), Evan White (SEA)

1:06:19 – Salt River (ARI, COL, MIN, MIA, WSN) players mentioned: Jon Duplantier (ARI), Ryan Castellani (COL), Justin Lawrence (COL), Brent Rooker (MIN), Brian Miller (MIA), Monte Harrison (MIA), Pavin Smith (ARI), Carter Kieboom (WSN), Tyler Nevin (COL), Jazz Chisholm (ARI), Travis Blankenhorn (MIN), Daulton Varsho (ARI)

1:11:20 – Scottsdale (CIN, HOU, NYM, PHI, SFG) players mentioned: Forrest Whitley (HOU, Trent Thornton (HOU), Erasmo Pinales (HOU), Garrett Williams (SFG), Sam Wolff (SFG), Melvin Adon (SFG), Luke Leftwich (PHI), J.B. Bukauskas (HOU), Taylor Trammell (CIN), Desmond Lindsay (NYM), Shed Long (CIN), Darick Hall (PHI), Andres Gimenez (NYM), Peter Alonso (NYM)

1:14:50 – Surprise (KCR, PIT, STL, TEX, TOR) players mentioned: Scott Blewett (KCR), Demarcus Evans (TEX), Zach Jackson (TOR), Connor Jones (STL), Nate Pearson (TOR), Evan Kruczynski (STL), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Cole Tucker (PIT), Andy Young (STL), Lane Thomas (STL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Khalil Lee (KCR), Cavan Biggio (TOR), Tommy Edman (STL), Nick Heath (KCR)

1:19:30 – TOPIC THREE: A Twins scout sued the team for age discrimination and FanGraphs’ legal expert Sheryl Ring joins the show to break down this case and the efficacies of others like it

1:38:20 – We delve into the hilarious part of this case, tied to the history of the lawyer bringing the suit

1:39:40 – Kiley reads a prior complaint from this lawyer, including the passage, “vast nationwide conspiracy…to bring an end to happy hours”

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 42 min play time.)

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What follows is simply a list of prospects who exceeded rookie-eligibility requirements in 2018. They are sorted into FV tiers (as listed at time of graduation) but not ranked within those tiers. Note the players whom we missed in the “Not Ranked” section at the bottom of the list. Lou Trivino (dominant reliever, probably should have been a 45 FV) and Niko Goodrum (a multipositional bat, typically a 45 FV for us) are prominent whiffs. Several of the 35 FV players were graded more highly in previous years (Fletcher, Laureano, O’Hearn, Palka) and they are a lesson in impatience and over-correction. Also take a gander at this piece from last winter, which I think has aged pretty well, especially the list of middle infielders.

It’s been a while since we posted anything comprehensive and transparent about how we draw our conclusions about prospects. Player evaluation and development are changing very quickly in the game, and those changes obviously influence how we think about prospects here at FanGraphs, enough to merit a refreshing primer before we start publishing this offseason’s organizational lists. In addition to teeing up the lists, this post is meant to act as a central hub that can serve to answer commonly asked questions about prospects and how they’re evaluated, specifically for those in the near future who want to start swimming in the deep end of the prospect pool. As we continue to augment our thinking and methodology, so too will we update this document, which will live in The Essentials section of the Prospects Coverage landing page. Feel free to direct any applicable correspondence to prospects@fangraphs.com. Common queries sent our way may find their way onto this webpage.

What information drives your opinions on prospects?

We see a lot of players ourselves. We talk to scouts from amateur, pro, and international departments about players they’ve seen. We talk to in-office analysts, front-office executives, and people in player development. We also use publicly available data we think is relevant. Some combination of these things fuels each player’s evaluation.

What are some of your shortcomings as far as information is concerned?

Increasingly, teams are using proprietary data as part of the player-evaluation process. TrackMan and Yakkertech aid evaluations on many different components of pitching and hitting, high-speed video of players from Edgertronic cameras allows clubs to better understand and alter hitting and pitching mechanics, and Motus sleeves and Rapsodo are used in pitch engineering. The mere existence and demonstrable efficacy of this stuff has altered the way we’re projecting players, but we don’t have access to the data generated by these devices across the entire population or prospects.

What is FV?

FV stands for Future Value, and it’s the way we distill each player’s scouting evaluation into a single expression. Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service. But there’s also quite a bit of nuance underlying that definition, so let’s break down its components.

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There are 6,000 or so minor-league baseball players at any given moment. By definition, meanwhile, there are only 100 minor-league ballplayers on any given top-100 prospect list. That means there are also around 6,000 minor leaguers not on top-100 lists — all 6,000 of them still intent on reaching the major leagues.

And many of them do reach the majors. For half-a-dozen years, Carson Cistulli has highlighted a number of prospects who failed to make a top-100 list by means of his Fringe Five series, and some of those players — like Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez — have gone on to become stars. There should be little doubt that prospects outside the standard top-100 lists have value. Determining how much value, however, is a different and more involved question.

When I attempted to determine a value for prospects who’d appeared on top-100 lists, I was working with a relatively small pool of players. Even 15 years’ worth of lists equates to 1,500 players at most. Attempting to determine the value for every prospect, meanwhile, would appear to be a much larger task. Does one look at the roughly 90,000 minor-league seasons over the same period? That seems daunting. Looking at Baseball America’s team-level prospects lists, which feature 10 players per organization, would provide a more manageable 200 prospects per season outside the top-100 list, but that wouldn’t quite get us where we need to be, either.

And yet, as I’ve noted, these prospects have value. On THE BOARD, for example, there are currently 689 prospects with grades (a) of at least 40 but (b) less than 50 (the lowest grade earned by players on a top-100 lists, typically). It’s these prospects in whom I’m interested. What follows represents my attempt to place a value on them, as well.

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