In case you hadn’t heard, a lot went down yesterday. Here are the prospects who changed teams on deadline day, as evaluated by my newly updated KATOH system. KATOH denotes WAR forecast for first six years of player’s major-league career. KATOH+ uses similar methodology with consideration also for Baseball America’s rankings.
Brinson posted some terrible numbers in the low minors, but he’s gotten progressively better the past few years, especially in the strikeout department. His 20% strikeout rate from last year was still a bit high, but not alarmingly so. With 31 extra-base hits and 10 steals to his name this year, Brinson has shown a tantalizing power/speed combination.
I awoke to the news of the Jay Bruce trade’s initial iteration, one that included Brandon Nimmo, a prospect on whom the industry is, at best, lukewarm. The new version of the deal is headlined by Dilson Herrera who, because of the number of plate appearances he’s recorded in the big leagues, is technically not a prospect anymore. But he played in this month’s Futures Game and has spent all of 2016 in the minors and writing one more scouting report after this trade deadline won’t bring me any closer to insanity than I’ve already come, so let’s talk about Dilson Herrera.
Herrera signed as an international free agent out of Colombia with Pittsburgh back in 2010. He received a $220,000 bonus. In 2013, he played in his first Futures Game before becoming part of the Marlon Byrd waiver deal later that August. Herrera reached the big leagues at age 20 and has had brief stints with the Mets during each of the past two seasons.
McGuire was the 14th-overall pick in the 2013 draft because he had a favorable profile as a glove-first catcher with a plus arm and a chance to grow into viable offense. He hasn’t. McGuire’s body has matured but his bat speed is below average and his swing is completely devoid of any power-creating loft. He tracks okay and has some bat control, but I don’t think he’s going to hit enough to play everyday and he profiles as more of a back-up catcher or low-end starter than as an average everyday player.
Jharel Cotton was omitted from all the notable top-100 lists entering the 2016 season. He was excluded from all those same lists entering the 2015 season, as well. And the 2014 one. And 2013 one. And 2012. And so on. A review of the literature suggests that, since the dawn of the uncreated light, Jharel Cotton’s name has been omitted from top-100 prospect lists.
One sort of document from which Cotton’s name hasn’t been omitted is the author’s weekly attempt to identify and/or monitor compelling fringe prospects, the Fringe Five. Cotton finished atop the haphazardly calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard last year and is currently fourth on this year’s edition of the scoreboard.
Why Cotton has been excluded from the aforementioned top-100 lists isn’t precisely for me to say. Why he’s been included among the Five, however, is because both (a) he’s produced excellent strikeout and walk numbers and (b) his repertoire suggests that his performances are sustainable.
Bahamian (won’t ever get tired of typing that) SS Lucius Fox is headed to Tampa Bay as the primary prospect return for LHP Matt Moore. Fox was receiving late-first-round grades as a domestic amateur before reclassifying as an international prospect before his senior year and signing for $6.5 million during last year’s J2 period. Fox ranked third on FanGraphs’ 2015 J2 sortable board and was #2 in my personal rankings.
Fox turned 19 last month and is extremely young for the full-season Sally League, where he was hitting .207/.305/.277. Fox’s body was simply not ready for full-season ball. Though he’s exceptionally twitchy and athletic, he hasn’t matured enough to compete and succeed at that level. There’s bat speed here as well as feel for moving that barrel around the zone and Fox has the physical tools to be an above-average hitter who pulls out a dozen or so annual homers. The left-handed swing has more power potential than his more conservative right-handed cut.
Dillon Tate’s career at UC Santa Barbara began in the bullpen and he transitioned to a starting role in 2015 as a junior. He threw 103 innings in 2015, a significant increase for a raw pitcher who’d only thrown 43 the year before. Regardless, he was holding his velocity deep into games and was among those considered by the Diamondbacks for the top-overall pick in last year’s draft. Tate’s stuff waxed and waned during his junior season but was back by draft time. He was up to 98 for me at NCAA Regionals and flashing a plus breaking ball. The Rangers drafted him fourth overall shortly thereafter.
That Tate has previously dealt with and bounced back from a downward turn in his stuff is especially significant considering he’s going to have to do it again. Reports on Tate suggest the quality of his arsenal is down across the board — and, indeed, he’s struggled to miss bats for the past two months. During spring training, Tate was 94-96 with a plus slider and flashing an above-average changeup. The fastball velo has been down in the 90-93 range lately and Tate is currently sporting a 5.12 ERA at Low-A Hickory.
Ariel Miranda sounds like one of those weird Disney Princess mashups that were fashionable clickbait last year — Click to see the Disney Princesses re-imagined as Sex and the City characters! Click to see the Disney Princesses re-imagined as members of the 2003 Philadelphia Eagles Secondary! Click to see the Disney Princesses re-imagined as America’s most infamous serial killers! — but he is an actual baseball pitcher who has come on of late and become a fairly interesting prospect of advanced age.
Miranda, a 6-foot-2 Cuban lefty, signed in May of 2015 after he defected and established residency in Haiti. He pitched across three levels during his first full season, finishing his initial domestic campaign with a solid eight-start run with Double-A Bowie. Miranda has passed 2016 in Triple-A (except for a two-inning shot of espresso with the Orioles early in July) and, while a 3.93 ERA from a 27-year-old isn’t exactly sexy, he’s flashed viable big-league stuff. His fastball will touch 95 mph on occasion and sits 90-93. Miranda has a quick, athletic arm and incorporates his lower half into a picturesque delivery that he doesn’t always finish. When he’s not driving the ball down, he lives either up in the zone or out of it altogether, something of which major-league hitters will take full advantage, but he’s capable of missing bats in the zone with his fastball. Miranda has been able to throw plenty of strikes this season, just not always where he wants to, and his control is ahead of his command.
The Athletics are moving two rentals in exchange for three very interesting pitching prospects, all of whom have bullpen-worthy stuff at worst — and mid-rotation upside at best.
The headliner of the deal, at least as far as upside is concerned, is RHP Grant Holmes. Holmes, who was committed to Florida, was the 22nd-overall pick in 2014 and signed for $2.5 million out of Conway High School in South Carolina. He touched 100 in high school and was one of the draft’s more advanced prep arms with a more mature body and better strike-throwing ability than many of his hard-throwing peers. After signing, he descended upon the AZL, which was clearly already beneath him at the time, and dominated before moving to the Pioneer League for his last few starts of the season.
In 2015, Holmes’ control went backwards and he walked 54 hitters in 103.1 innings for Low-A Great Lakes. Walks have remained an issue this season (43 free passes in 105 innings). Holmes is an above-average athlete and his delivery isn’t overtly violent or difficult to repeat, but his arm action is long and his release point has been inconsistent. Eventually, I think Holmes will throw enough strikes to start though two straight years of serious control issues are officially concerning.
The stuff is great. Holmes was 92-94 mph and touching 95 for me in April and has generally been in that range all year. His fastball moves, a product of his arm slot, and can be unhittable when he locates it. Holmes’ primary offspeed weapon is his curveball which, when he breaks off a good one, looks like a slider’s caricature. It has two-plane, slider shape and slider velociy (about 79-82) but has the vertical depth of a curveball. It flashes plus but is also inconsistent and can tilt in without much bite.
In exchange for LHP Zach Duke, the White Sox received fourth-outfield prospect Charlie Tilson from St. Louis. Tilson is a plus-plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills but doesn’t project as a regular because of his complete lack of power.
A Chicago-area high schooler, Tilson blew up a bit at the Area Code Games as a rising senior when he stole seven bases in three days of play. The Cardinals selected him in the second round of the 2011 draft and gave him $1.275 million to turn pro instead of heading to Illinois. He missed all of 2012 while recovering from surgery to repair a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, began 2013 in full-season ball and has made a ton of contact ever since. He was hitting .282/.345/.407 with Triple-A Memphis before the trade.
Tilson has just average bat speed, no leverage in his swing and very rarely extends enough to really punish the baseball, resulting in 30-grade game power. He can play all three outfield positions, though his arm is fringe average and fits best in center and left. His ability to play center field while making a lot of contact is probably enough to win him a major-league roster spot, but unless his defense in center greatly outpaces present projections, he only profiles as a bench outfielder or below-average regular.
Despite a relatively humble collection of tools, Tilson ranked 81st on Chris Mitchell’s updated KATOH rankings.
Taylor Hearn has been drafted four times, first selected by the Pirates in the 22nd round of the 2012 draft out of Royse City High School in Texas. After two years at JUCO powerhouse San Jacinto, Hearn transferred to Oklahoma Baptist for his junior season, struck out 71 hitters in 64.1 innings, and was selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft by Washington.
Hearn was starting for the Nationals’ GCL affiliate before moving to the bullpen upon his promotion to Hagerstown. Despite pitching exclusively in relief for the past month, he has remained stretched out, throwing multiple innings in each appearance, and the Pirates have stated that they hope to develop him as a starter. He has the body and delivery for it.
A lithe and projectable 6-foot-5, Hearn has some issues repeating what is a loose and athletic delivery. The arm is quick and Hearn extends well, allowing his mid-to-upper 90s velocity to play up. Hearn sits 93-96 mph but has been up to 99 in short stints and his fastball features good downhill plane. His slider is average and Hearn has very little command of it, but it has a chance to tick up a half grade or so with reps. His changeup is also promising and projectable, mostly because of how quick and athletic the arm is, and I do think Pittsburgh is right to try to develop Hearn as a rotation arm. The body, delivery and repertoire to start are all either here already or reasonably foreseeable, though moving Hearn along as a starter will take longer than if Washington fast tracked him as a ‘pen arm.
Hearn has had some injury issues throughout his career. He suffered from a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures. There’s lots of risk involved here, because of Hearn’s injury history and because he throws a baseball very hard for a living, but it’s a intriguing flier for Pittsburgh.
