Scouting the Prospects in the Francisco Liriano Trade
As part of yesterday’s last-minute deal involving Francisco Liriano and Drew Hutchison, the Blue Jays also received two prospects in C Reese McGuire and OF Harold Ramirez.
McGuire was the 14th-overall pick in the 2013 draft because he had a favorable profile as a glove-first catcher with a plus arm and a chance to grow into viable offense. He hasn’t. McGuire’s body has matured but his bat speed is below average and his swing is completely devoid of any power-creating loft. He tracks okay and has some bat control, but I don’t think he’s going to hit enough to play everyday and he profiles as more of a back-up catcher or low-end starter than as an average everyday player.
| Tool | Present | Future |
| Hit | 30 | 40 |
| Raw Power | 40 | 40 |
| Game Power | 20 | 30 |
| Run | 30 | 20 |
| Field | 50 | 60 |
| Throw | 60 | 60 |
| FV | — | 40 |
Ramirez is similarly flawed, in that he has well below-average game power despite a thick, stocky frame and likely left-field-only defensive profile. He reported to camp out of shape in 2015 and his body’s rapid maturation has begun to slow him down and make him less viable in center. He has average bat speed that plays down because of the length in the back of his swing, and he lives off of excellent bat control and hand-eye coordination.
Even if you think Ramirez is a future plus hitter (I don’t but acknowledge it’s a possibility, Ramirez is really unique and a tough eval as a result), there won’t be more than 40 game power here unless he drastically alters his approach — and that offensive profile doesn’t play in left field without good defense, something I’m increasingly skeptical Ramirez will be able to provide. He’s only 21 and is hitting at Double-A, but the tool package here is not all that dissimilar to that of the recently traded Billy McKinney, who received the same Future Value grade.
| Tool | Present | Future |
| Hit | 50 | 60 |
| Raw Power | 40 | 40 |
| Game Power | 30 | 40 |
| Run | 45 | 40 |
| Field | 45 | 50 |
| Throw | 45 | 45 |
| FV | — | 40 |
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Interesting. This seems to the harshest take on these 2 prospects anywhere on the interwebs.
Really interested to see the “Scouting the prospects in the Niese/Bastardo trade” article.
I know many of my fellow Pirate fans have been very upset about this trade. But my sense is they are over-estimating the value of McGuire and Ramirez based on name recognition and prospect “rankings”.
McGuire was a high 1st round pick a few years back. But he has never hit, and I see no reason to assume he ever will. Elias Diaz has surpassed him as the Pirates main catcher prospect. Catchers who play good defense but cannot hit are not incredibly difficult to obtain.
Ramirez is a left fielder who has no power and little speed, plays mediocre defense, and apparently has a bit of an attitude problem. Jose Tabata was a similar player – highly-touted early on, for no apparent reason. 4th outfielders are not incredibly difficult to obtain.
The thing I like about the trade for the Pirates is the potential that Drew Hutchison might perform reasonably well in a ballpark that suppresses HR. Hutchison can strike batters out. I expect nothing more than 4th starter production from him, but I think he could be reasonably good.
Let me ask this – if McGuire and Ramirez were international free agents right now, would teams give them a total of $17 million in signing bonuses? Apparently the Jays would. But I don’t think many teams would pay that money for guys with limited upside.