Scouting Not-Quite-Prospect-Anymore Dilson Herrera
I awoke to the news of the Jay Bruce trade’s initial iteration, one that included Brandon Nimmo, a prospect on whom the industry is, at best, lukewarm. The new version of the deal is headlined by Dilson Herrera who, because of the number of plate appearances he’s recorded in the big leagues, is technically not a prospect anymore. But he played in this month’s Futures Game and has spent all of 2016 in the minors and writing one more scouting report after this trade deadline won’t bring me any closer to insanity than I’ve already come, so let’s talk about Dilson Herrera.
Herrera signed as an international free agent out of Colombia with Pittsburgh back in 2010. He received a $220,000 bonus. In 2013, he played in his first Futures Game before becoming part of the Marlon Byrd waiver deal later that August. Herrera reached the big leagues at age 20 and has had brief stints with the Mets during each of the past two seasons.
Herrera is a fringe-average runner (timed around 4.33 to 4.35 from home to first) and will probably continue to thicken up into his prime. He’s explosive, though, and I think what speed and range he loses as he ages will be counterbalanced by better, more refined feel for the position. He should play at least an average second base at maturity if he isn’t doing that already.
Herrera has plus bat speed but loads his hands high. His swing can get a little long as a result, but his minimalist footwork helps keep his overall approach simple and compact. He has pull-only power (at least as far as home runs are concerned) and average raw power, but is capable of spraying line drives all over the field. He tracks well but has limited bat control and can’t drive balls in all parts of the strike zone. I think he’s a 50 hit/50 power guy, which doesn’t sound exciting, but remember that we’re talking about an up-the-middle defender. I think the Reds netted a solid-average regular.
| Tool | Present | Future |
| Hit | 40 | 50 |
| Raw Power | 50 | 50 |
| Game Power | 40 | 50 |
| Run | 45 | 40 |
| Field | 45 | 50 |
| Throw | 50 | 50 |
| FV | — | 50 |
The Reds also acquired LHP prospect Max Wotell, a projectable lefty with breaking-ball feel and good arm acceleration. Wotell’s delivery is Bootsy Collins-level funky, baby.
It’s hard for long, low arm actions like this to play against opposite-handed hitters without a viable changeup in the repertoire, so there’s a chance Wotell ends up as a lefty-killing reliever and nothing more, but velo (he’s been up to 94), projection and breaking-ball feel are really all you can ask for from a teenage arm.
| Tool | Present | Future |
| Fastball | 50 | 55 |
| Curveball | 45 | 55 |
| Changeup | 30 | 40 |
| Control | 30 | 45 |
| FV | — | 35 |
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Could herrera perform similarly to another former met edgardo alfonzo?
His offensive best-case scenario probably looks a lot like that. He’ll never be the slick fielder Fonzie was.
Can you explain why a player with one 40 grade and the rest 50 grades would be a 50 overall? Of course a league average hitter at 2nd is valuable but if he’s a 50 glove wouldn’t that make him a below average second baseman? Then you add in the fact that he’s a below average runner. Wouldn’t that make him a 45 ish?
If he was more than a 50 grade defender AND could hit at league average, wouldn’t he be above average overall. I assume your question is methodological and I cannot comment to that, but the margin of error on projections is probably greater than 5% or 10%, so I never treat these with confidence, although I enjoy reading them. The discussion of technique is particularly insightful.
Contrary to what was written here, he’s not below average runner. Eyeball him as
I have as Mets fan.
I think his defense is below average, but has 55 power, 55 hit tool and 55 speed.
He’s very young. Give him a chance to develop into the quality major league hitter and base runner he can be in time.
The defense too will improve maybe to 50 grade.
Rounding.
To Reds Fans,
This Mets fan can tell you’re getting a better talent than described here.
Most notable is above average bat and foot speed. And strength in 5’10” body.
He’s young, will need time to mature in his game, but has the talent for success. He was twice called up to the majors too soon but nonetheless displayed line drive home run power and hard contact.
He needs to develop major league plate approach, solidify his defense and learn to successfully steal at the major league level.
He has new life now, fresh start in new organization and will be motivated to reach the majors and stick. His offense is better than his 2016 Las Vegas line which might have dipped due to disappointment of minor league return, blocked at second by Neil Walker.
The weakest part of his game long term could be his defense.
Anybody whose batting line dips on arrival in Las Vegas, no matter the circumstances, is going to look suspect.
well it didn’t dip on arrival. It dipped the second year in vegas while he’s been battling a shoulder injury all season.
The description of Herrera and what I’ve seen of him reminds me of Juan Uribe.
Juan “Big Gulp” Uribe