James Tibbs III might best be described as a hitting rat. Drafted 13th overall last year by the San Francisco Giants out of Florida State University, and subsequently shipped to the Boston Red Sox in last month’s blockbuster Rafael Devers deal, the 22-year-old outfielder lives and breathes baseball — particularly the part that entails standing in the batter’s box. From a young age, Tibbs has doggedly worked on honing his left-handed stroke.
An Atlanta native who attended high school in nearby Marietta, Tibbs excelled collegiately, slashing .338/.462/.685 over three seasons at the ACC school, with a 28-homer junior campaign further enhancing his profile. And he’s continued to hit in pro ball. He played just 26 games after inking a contract last summer, and his results were mixed; he posted a 153 wRC+ in nine games (42 plate appearances) in A-ball, earned a promotion, then went cold in High-A. Now in his first full professional season, he’s back to doing what he does best: bashing baseballs. Tibbs put up a 132 wRC+ with a dozen home runs in High-A prior to the trade, and since joining his new organization, he has logged a 107 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances while acclimating to Double-A.
Ranked 14th in what Eric Longenhagen called “the best farm system in baseball” when our Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in late June, the promising young outfielder was assigned a 45 FV, with raw power graded as his best hitting tool. Tibbs sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent Portland Sea Dogs home game.
———
David Laurila: You were drafted one year ago. Are you the same hitter now, or has anything meaningfully changed?
James Tibbs III: “I’m pretty much the same. It’s what’s gotten me this far, and I’ve kind of tried to replicate that as much as possible. I’ve never been one to try to make changes unless it’s absolutely necessary, because I play off of feel. I’ll make adjustments based off of that feel, but I’m doing it trying to get back to my base. My base has been pretty consistent for the last… three years? Two years? Something like that.
“I feel like I cover the plate well. I feel like I can see the ball well from where I stand and how I load. I feel like I use my body well in order to get to the spots that I can’t necessarily cover. So yeah, it’s been pretty consistent for the most part.”
Jake Bird is having a career-best season, and conquering Coors Field has been a big part of the reason why. Over 21 relief appearances comprising 26 1/3 innings, the 29-year-old right-hander has held opposing hitters to a .196/.276/.217 slash line at home. His ERA at the notoriously hitter-friendly venue is 1.71, and his strikeout rate is a healthy 34.3%. Folding in his 18 road outings — including last night’s ERA-inflating, five-run debacle in Boston — Bird has a 3.70 ERA, a 2.92 FIP, and a 27.8% strikeout rate over 48 2/3 frames.
Prior to this year, he’d been a run-of-the-mill reliever on moribund Rockies teams. From 2022-24, Colorado’s fifth-round pick in the 2018 draft had a record of 7-9 with one save and a 4.53 ERA over 177 innings. An unranked prospect coming up through the system, Bird was in possession of an economics degree from UCLA, but boasted little in terms of big league upside. He came into the current campaign projected to essentially replicate the nondescript performances of his previous three seasons.
What is behind Bird’s unexpected emergence as a high-quality bullpen arm? Moreover, what is allowing him to have so much success in his home ballpark? I asked him those questions before Monday’s Rockies-Red Sox game at Fenway Park.
———
David Laurila: How are you having so much success at Coors this year? Can you explain it?
Jake Bird: “I think a lot of it is just the comfortability factor. After being here a few years, I’m realizing that Coors isn’t the big monster that everybody makes it out to be. It’s not that big of a deal. Sometimes [the ball] gets in the air, and the [pitches] move less, but as long as you have a plan of where you want to go with the ball, and sequence pitches, it doesn’t make too much of a difference. Read the rest of this entry »
Chase Burns doesn’t need much of an introduction. The 22-year-old right-hander was featured here at FanGraphs prior to his much-anticipated June 24 major league debut, and when our Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list was published in early May, he came in at no. 1, this after checking in at no. 28 overall as a 55 FV prospect on the offseason Top 100. And then there was the debut itself. With the eyes of the baseball world upon him, the second overall pick in last year’s draft fanned the first five New York Yankees batters he faced. With a fastball reaching triple digits and a razor-sharp slider to augment it, Burns has quickly established himself as one of the game’s most promising young arms.
Those things said, the flame-throwing Wake Forest University product is still a work in progress. Burns threw just 66 minor league innings before receiving his call-up, and while his initial frames were scintillating, he soon learned how challenging it is to face big league hitters. Not only did the Yankees go on to tag him for three runs, he failed to get out of the first inning in his second start, that against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
How does Burns approach his craft, and what has he learned coming through not only Wake Forest’s pitching program, but also Cincinnati’s, which is likewise highly regarded? One day after his rocky outing in Boston, I sat down with Burns to find out.
———
David Laurila: What do you know now that you didn’t know when you were coming out of high school?
Chase Burns: “It’s kind of a growing process, really. You’re learning as you go. There is a lot I’ve learned about, including analytics, going from high school to college — and even now — about how can I make my stuff better, about what plays in the game today.”
Laurila: Pitching analytics and optimizing your stuff is important, but more than that goes into succeeding at this level…
Burns: “Yes. I was fortunate to go to Wake Forest, where we had the pitching lab, but the pitching coach there, Corey Muscara, kind of talked about that. He talked about how you don’t want to dive too deep into the analytics, because at the end of the day, you’ve got to go out there and get outs. That’s the biggest thing.”
Laurila: Is there any one thing you learned about yourself as a pitcher at Wake Forest that you feel is especially important?
Burns: “I think I figured out that I was more of a north-to-south pitcher, as opposed to an east-to-west pitcher. I kind of throw the ball middle and let my stuff move how it’s intended, instead of trying to make this big sweep right to left. I think that helps me a lot.”
Laurila: That wasn’t until you got to Wake Forest?
Burns: “Yes. When I was at Tennessee [where Burns spent his first two collegiate seasons], I was trying to go in and out more, rather than up and down with all my stuff.”
Laurila: I assume you know your pitch metrics?
Burns: “I do. I’m a cut-ride guy, and I feel like my vertical is pretty good. I’ve been up to 20-21 inches [with the fastball], but it averages around 18. When I was at Tennessee, the vertical was pretty low, and I realized that I could get more, so that was something I went after. Now I don’t really worry about it too much; I kind of just play into the cut-ride profile. I think that’s kind of another weapon for me.
“Nowadays a lot of people are chasing vertical and spin rate — stuff like that — and I think it could be a good thing, but at the same time, it could be bad with the amount of injuries that we have today.”
Laurila: The slider is your best secondary pitch. Has that always been the case?
Burns: “Yeah. It’s a pitch I’ve always had feel for, even when I was younger. Over the years, it’s kind of just progressed naturally.”
Laurila: You also have a curveball and a changeup…
Burns: “The curveball is something I’ve had since college, but I didn’t really have times where I needed to use it as much. But at this level, you’re going to have to use it. It’s still developing, but it’s been a weapon for me.
“My changeup isn’t very conventional. It’s the kick-change that everybody’s been talking about. I’m a supinator, so it’s kind of hard for me to throw a changeup. I started kicking it, and have had some success doing that.”
Laurila: When did you start throwing the kick-change?
Burns: “I starting kicking it this year, right before spring training. Some guys at Wake Forest helped me develop it. I told [the Reds] that I’ve been working on it, I threw it a lot, and they were pretty happy with it.”
Laurila: Your fastball and slider are plus-plus pitches, while the other two aren’t at that same level. How are you approaching pitch usage in terms of using your entire repertoire versus mostly just going with your best weapons?
Burns: “I mean, two pitches at this level can be hard. A hitter can eliminate one, and that makes it a lot easier for them, so having four is huge for me. That’s something I’ve been working on in my recent outing. My changeup has been a really good pitch for me, especially against lefties.”
Laurila: You’re a power pitcher. Is that accurate?
Burns: “Yes.”
Laurila: In a perfect world, a pitcher is more than just power. Along with having nasty stuff, he knows how to “pitch.”
Burns: “I mean, that’s the end goal. When you can match those two together, being a power pitcher who throws hard, but also be able to use finesse — go up and down, in and out, be able to paint the corners — that’s what makes a pitcher really dangerous.”
Laurila: Going from being more of a thrower to more of a pitcher is an important evolution. As young as you are, do you feel you’ve turned that corner?
Burns: “I think so. Maybe some people don’t agree with that, but I feel I’ve made huge improvements from being just a guy that just tries to throw it hard to a guy that actually goes out there and pitches. But like I said earlier, it’s a growing process.”
Max Scherzer was an early adoptee of analytics. When I first interviewed him for Baseball Prospectus back in August 2010, the right-hander called himself “a very mathematical guy,” adding that “the advanced metrics that are coming out throughout the game… have helped me to understand and simplify the game.”
Fifteen years later, Scherzer is an elder statesmen — and a three-time Cy Young Award winner — who approaches his craft differently than he once did. That’s not to say he no longer values analytics — he does — but a decade and a half of facing big league hitters has altered his perspective. (He addressed that evolution in an interview that ran here at FanGraphs two summer ago.) Now with the Toronto Blue Jays and on the back stretch of a career that should land him in Cooperstown, the 40-year-old Scherzer highly values an aspect of pitching that can’t be quantified.
The subject at hand was one he volunteered. Knowing Scherzer possesses both a wealth of pitching knowledge and well-formed opinions, I approached him with an open-ended question: What should we talk about?
Here is the conversation that followed, edited lightly for better clarity.
———
David Laurila: You mentioned conviction…
Max Scherzer: “Yes. Guys now are flooded with information, and what they really need to be doing is going out there and competing, and understanding that when you do get beat, it’s not the shape of the pitch. It’s actually the sequence, or the conviction, or it could be 1,000 other things. Talking to lot of young guys, that’s what they care about, their pitch shapes. There’s so much more to pitching than that. Those are the discussions we need to have with the next generation.”
Laurila: Is there are a relationship between shapes and conviction? Do pitches that aren’t thrown with full conviction tend to be less sharp? Read the rest of this entry »
Shortly after the piece ran, two people suggested David Stearns as a followup interview subject. That’s understandable. Now in his second season as the president of baseball operations for the New York Mets, the 40-year-old Ivy League product has two decades of experience within the industry, almost all of it in front offices.
A summer intern with the Pittsburgh Pirates prior to graduating from Harvard University in 2007, Stearns subsequently worked in MLB’s central office, then served as co-director of baseball operations with Cleveland, became an assistant general manager with the Houston Astros, and, in 2015, was hired by the Milwaukee Brewers as general manager. His data-driven approach was a common thread throughout. Moreover, he has remained true to his analytic bent since assuming his current position following the 2023 season.
Stearns was at Fenway Park this past week when the Red Sox hosted the team whose front office he now leads, so I took the opportunity to get his perspective on the subject at hand. Here is our conversation, lightly edited for clarity.
———
David Laurila: I’ll start with the question I asked Atkins, Cashman, Dipoto, and Mozeliak: How has the continued growth of analytics impacted the job?
David Stearns: “Over the span of my career, we’ve been inundated with more and more sources of information — information sources that are increasingly granular in nature, increasingly have to do with the processes of playing baseball, and not necessarily the results or outcomes of playing baseball. Those lead towards more and more complex algorithms and models that require greater numbers of analysts, and really smart, creative people to have in a front office. So, one of the greatest changes is just the size of the departments within baseball. The information has grown to such a enormous extent that we need more and more people to manage the information. That’s the first thing that comes to my mind. And then we need to make all that information actionable.” Read the rest of this entry »
Paul Molitor was a maestro with the bat. Over 21 seasons — 15 with the Milwaukee Brewers and three each with the Minnesota Twins and the Toronto Blue Jays — he recorded 3,319 hits, the 11th-highest total in major league history. Moreover, Molitor’s 605 doubles are tied for 15th most, while his 2,366 singles are 12th most. Walking nearly as often as he struck out (1,094 BB, 1,244 K) the sweet-swinging corner infielder/designated hitter put up a .306/.369/.448 slash line and a 122 wRC+.
Elected to the Hall of Fame in 2004, the St. Paul, Minnesota native went on to manage the Twins from 2015-2018, and prior to that he served as the team’s bench coach and as the hitting coach for the Seattle Mariners. Now an analyst on Twins radio broadcasts, Molitor sat down to talk hitting on a recent visit to Fenway Park.
———
David Laurila: You played [from 1978-1998]. Did hitters and/or hitting change over the course of your long career?
Paul Molitor: “I don’t think as drastically as we’ve seen over the past 10 years or so. I don’t know if we’ve ever been through a period where the percentage of teams’ runs scored were as closely related to how many home runs they hit. The game is always evolving. Breaking down the game in terms of what plays, the numbers show how driving the baseball, getting extra-base hits, [produces runs].
“I do like the old-school. Trying to get hits is still a good thing. You’re obviously going to have guys in your lineup who are more prone to striking out, but they’re going to get you that two- or three-run homer every now and then. And then you have the guys who create the flow on the bases. If you can run the bases, you give yourself more opportunities to get in scoring position. A perfect example would be the 2025 Red Sox. They put a lot of pressure on teams defensively. I think both can work.
“So yeah, there have been changes, but again, not too much when I played. Guys were always trying to figure out how to get better, but the involvement of analytics has changed some of the approach — everything from uppercut swings to how pitchers are throwing the baseball, spinning the baseball. It all plays a part in the counter strategy that hitters are trying to employ.”
Matt Seelinger has taken an atypical path to the doorstep of the big leagues. Drafted in the 28th round by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of Division-III Farmingdale State College in 2017, the 30-year-old right-hander subsequently played in the Tampa Bay Rays, San Francisco Giants, and Philadelphia Phillies organizations before getting released and hooking on with the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks before the 2024 season. His fortunes turned last summer. The Detroit Tigers signed Seelinger in late June, and since returning to affiliated ball he has logged a 1.26 ERA and a 38.4% strikeout rate over 29 relief appearances between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. So far this season, the Westbury, New York native has a 4-0 record to go with a 0.57 ERA and a 30.9% strikeout rate over nine appearances, the last five of them with the Mud Hens.
His signature pitch is every bit as notable as his late-bloomer success. Seelinger’s repertoire includes a four-seam fastball and a cutter/slider, but it is his unique offering with an unorthodox grip that most stands out. Seelinger shared the story behind it when Toledo visited Triple-A Worcester last week.
———
David Laurila: You throw a unique pitch. What exactly is it?
Matt Seelinger: “So, it was coined on Long Island, where I’m from. It’s called a knuckle drop. Basically, what I do is take a four-seam fastball grip and flip it so that the horseshoe is on the inside. I take my two fingers — my pointer finger and my middle finger — and bend them. I take the top lace, and put them on the bottom of it. I put my ring finger and pinky on the seams. The thumb, I try to get underneath as much as possible, although thumb placement isn’t as big of deal as long as it’s not too high up on the ball. From there, I throw it just like a fastball, only I’m pushing it out.”
Trent Blank plays an integral role in one of baseball’s top pitching organizations. Now in his sixth season on the major league coaching staff, Blank is the director of pitching strategy for the Seattle Mariners. He’s well-suited for the job. The 35-year-old former minor league hurler holds an MS in Kinesiology and Exercise from Dallas Baptist University, and he previously worked at TMI Sports Medicine as a baseball performance specialist. Along with his current position, Blank has served as Seattle’s bullpen coach.
Blank sat down to talk about the Mariners’ pitching process prior to the start of the regular season.
———
David Laurila: Let’s start with a pitcher the Mariners [purchased from the Cincinnati Reds] shortly before spring training. What made Casey Legumina an attractive acquisition?
Trent Blank: “Whenever we sign anybody, we look at them through a lot of different lenses, and he popped for both our player development and analytics groups. From my perspective, we really liked some of the unique things that he does with the baseball. He has good uphill plane since he kind of changed his delivery. With his spin profile, we think we can add a couple of pitches. We’re also thinking about bringing a couple of pitches back, and repurposing them. He has a lot of raw materials we feel we can put together in a different way.”
Laurila: Can you elaborate on that?
Blank: “When we add stuff, it’s generally based on a certain spin profile we see. Then, when we talk about repurposing… with Casey in particular, it’s the sweeper. He’s had different versions of it, because he’s had different slots. We like the pitch. Adding some aggression is one thing. We’re still working through it, but the main thing is getting his fastball going at the top rail a little bit more.”
Laurila: Generally speaking, how does the organization approach introducing changes to a pitcher’s arsenal? Read the rest of this entry »
Chase Dollander made his much-anticipated debut with the Rockies on Sunday afternoon, allowing seven hits and four runs over five innings and earning his first big league win. Ranked no. 12 on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring, the 23-year-old right-hander fanned six, walked one, and surrendered a pair of home runs as Colorado outscored the Athletics 12-5 at Coors Field.
His power arsenal was on display throughout. Topping out at 99.3 mph with his high-octane heater, the 2023 first-round pick out of the University of Tennessee threw 34 four-seamers, 21 sliders (which Baseball Savant classifies as a cutter), 15 curveballs, and nine changeups. Undaunted by a premiere in the majors’ most hitter-friendly venue, he aggressively attacked the zone, throwing 49 of his 79 pitches (62.%) for strikes.
Dollander discussed his repertoire prior to the start of the regular season.
———
David Laurila: Scouting reports say you have a plus fastball, good secondaries, and that you usually command the ball well. Does that sound accurate?
Chase Dollander: “I would say so. I feel like my stuff is in a good spot right now. I do think that getting the slider a little harder and a little shorter would be good for me. But other than that, yeah, I feel like my stuff is in a good spot.”
Austin Adams threw a higher percentage of sliders than any pitcher in baseball last season. In 56 relief outings comprising 41 1/3 innings, the 33-year-old right-hander relied on his signature offering 73.8% of the time. The heavy usage wasn’t an outlier for Adams. Since breaking into the big leagues in 2017, his 77.2% slider percentage is tops among hurlers to throw at least 100 innings.
His overall numbers have been solid. Pitching for five teams, including the Athletics last year, Adams has a 4.10 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, and a 31.6% strikeout rate over 155 2/3 career innings. He’s challenging to square up consistently, and he’s held opposing batters to a .199 batting average. Command has been the fly in the ointment, and not just because of his higher-than-ideal 13.9% walk rate. Adams plunked 13 batters last season, and in 2021 with the Padres, he outlandishly logged 24 HBPs in 52 2/3 frames.
Now in big league camp with the Red Sox after signing a minor league deal in January, Adams sat down to talk about his slider(s) at Boston’s spring training facility in Fort Myers.
———
David Laurila: You throw a ton of sliders. Why?
Austin Adams: “The reason I throw so many sliders is because I enjoy having a job in baseball. It’s my best pitch. I try to take each one of my pitches, individually, in a vacuum. For me, it’s not necessarily about setting things up. I’m not saying that’s not a thing. What I’m saying is that it’s harder to quantify. My highest-graded pitch is my slider — metrically it’s a really good pitch — so I’m going to throw it the majority of the time. It’s what gives me the best opportunity to get outs.”
